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Event
The ruling coalition, dominated by the Labour Party, lost control of at least three of the country's five urban councils in the local elections on December 9th.
Analysis
The opposition alliance, known as Remake2000 after their election victory in 2000, won 53 out of 90 seats in the five urban councils and it will now control the capital city, Port-Louis, as well as Quatre-Bornes and Beau-Bassin/Rose-Hill. The ruling coalition, which also includes the Parti mauricien social democrate (PMSD), only won in Vacoas-Phoenix, while the outcome in the fifth city, Curepipe, depends on which block the smaller Mouvement mauricien social democrate (MMSD) party, which won one seat there, decides to support. Rural council elections were held on December 2nd, but the national parties do not participate in them, and although many of them are loosely affiliated with the local parties, the results there are harder to gauge. As a result, both sides claimed victory. However, the Labour Party traditionally dominates in the rural areas and it appears to have maintained its dominance despite the opposition taking control of some villages.
| Municipal election results, December 2012 | |||
| (no. of urban council seats) | |||
| City | Ruling coalition | Remake 2000 | MMSD |
| Beau-Bassin/Rose-Hill | 0 | 18 | |
| Curepipe | 7 | 7 | 1 |
| Port-Louis | 11 | 13 | |
| Quatre-Bornes | 7 | 8 | |
| Vacoas-Phoenix | 11 | 7 | |
| Total | 36 | 53 | 1 |
| Source: Electoral Commissioner's Office, Mauritius | |||
Given that the government had controlled all five urban municipalities since the latest local poll in 2005, the opposition's victory is a major turnaround and a confidence booster ahead of the 2015 national election. Remake2000 had been weighed down by internal divisions after it was reconstituted earlier this year, but with tensions easing it has been increasingly united in its opposition against the governing coalition, which has a majority of only five seats in the National Assembly. Boosted by its performance in the local polls, it could now seek to reinforce its attempts to attract defectors from the ruling parties and thus potentially trigger an early election.
The outcome in the local polls also serves as a benchmark for the government's performance since it came to power in 2010. Urban voters appear to have punished the government for the country's economic woes. Faced with decreasing demand from Europe, economic growth has slowed and the important tourism sector, a major employer, has stagnated. Nevertheless, voter turnout was only 45%, reflecting the limited powers local councils have to influence people's lives, and the prime minister, the Labour leader, Navin Ramgoolam, said that the results of the rural and urban polls clearly show that his coalition maintains support from a majority of the population.
December 14, 2012
Anerood Jugnauth
Sir Anerood Jugnauth has been president since October 2003 and was prime minister between 2000 and 2003. He is a former leader of the Mouvement socialiste militant (MSM) and passed the leadership to his son, Pravind Jugnauth, in April 2003. Sir Anerood was also prime minister in 1982-95, when Mauritius transformed itself from a low-income into a middle-income country.
Navin Ramgoolam
Mr Ramgoolam is the current prime minister and the leader of the Labour Party and of the ruling coalition, Alliance sociale (AS). He is the son of the first prime minister of Mauritius, Seewoosagur Ramgoolam. He was prime minister between 1995 and 2000 and the head of the opposition in parliament in 2000-05.
Rama Sithanen
Mr Sithanen is a deputy prime minister and minister of finance and economic development. An accountant and economist, he was director of planning at the national air carrier, Air Mauritius, in 1987-90, before becoming minister of finance for the first time in 1991-95 in the government of Anerood Jugnauth.
Xavier-Luc Duval
Mr Duval is a deputy prime minister and minister of tourism. Son of the late Sir Gaetan Duval, the former leader of the Parti mauricien social democrate (PMSD), Mr Duval left the PMSD to form Parti mauricien Xavier-Luc Duval (PMXD) in 1998 and was a junior partner in the former Labour Party-PMXD government. He has lost much of the support that his father had in the Creole community, to the benefit mainly of the Mouvement militant mauricien (MMM).
Rama Valayden
Mr Valayden, a barrister, is the leader of the Mouvement republicain (MR) and is widely seen as the political heir to Gaetan Duval. He is currently attorney-general and close to Mr Ramgoolam, who seems to give him greater independence than he does most senior ministers.
Paul Berenger
Mr Berenger is the leader of the MMM and, since September 2007, leader of the opposition. He was prime minister in 2003-05. He has been an alliance partner in three governing coalitions, with Sir Anerood, Mr Ramgoolam and Mr Jugnauth, but all partnerships ended.
Pravind Jugnauth
Pravind Jugnauth is the leader of the MSM, and was agriculture minister under the premiership of Sir Anerood (his father) between 2000 and 2003, and deputy prime minister and finance minister from 2003 to July 2005 in the MMM-MSM government. He lost his seat in parliament in the 2005 general election.
Nando Bodha
Mr Bodha is secretary-general of the MSM, its leader in the National Assembly, and from 2005 until 2007 the leader of the opposition in parliament. A barrister and a former director-general of the Mauritius Broadcasting Corporation, he was press attache to Sir Anerood when he was prime minister between 1990 and 1993.
Ashock Jugnauth
The leader of the Union nationale, which he founded in 2006, Ashock Jugnauth was a senior member of the MSM and a minister in the MMM-MSM government. He is Pravind Jugnauth's uncle and the half-brother of Sir Anerood. He was seen as a potential leader of the MSM, but left the party in April 2006 after disagreements with his nephew. In 2007 he backed the MMM, rather than the MSM, to lead the opposition.
The judiciary
The Mauritian legal system is a hybrid, combining both civil and common law practices. Private law is largely based on the Napoleonic Code, whereas public and administrative laws draw essentially on English common law. The judicial system practises the British adversarial system of litigation. It consists of the Supreme Court, the Intermediate Court and ten district courts, which all have jurisdiction in civil and criminal matters. The Supreme Court, which has a chief justice and six other judges, also has an appellate jurisdiction by which it may review the decision of one of its own judges or the decisions of subordinate courts. Final appeal can be made to the UK Privy Council. The Supreme Court is the principal court of original criminal jurisdiction. Criminal trials before the Supreme Court are held before a presiding judge and a jury of nine persons, and relate to very serious offences such as murder. The Intermediate Court and district courts are presided over by magistrates. They deal with most criminal matters; their jurisdiction in civil matters is subject to a monetary threshold. The death penalty was abolished in 1989.
The legislature
Mauritius's constitution, drawn up at the time of independence, established a parliamentary democracy based largely on the UK model. Power lies with the elected National Assembly, the supreme lawmaking body of the country. The assembly, which has a term of five years, comprises 62 elected representatives (who come from 20 three-member constituencies on the island of Mauritius and one two-member constituency on Rodrigues) and up to eight "best losers", appointed to ensure adequate representation of the different ethnic groups.
The press is completely free
The publicly owned Mauritius Broadcasting Corporation (MBC) operates nine television and eight radio channels, and broadcasts in English, French, Creole, Hindi, Urdu and Chinese. In 1997 the Supreme Court invalidated the MBC's monopoly on broadcasting, and in 2002 the first private commercial radio and televisions stations went on air. Mauritius is also served by a large number of multilingual daily and weekly newspapers and around 30 periodicals. The media have traditionally enjoyed freedom of expression in Mauritius, and the quality newspapers, such as Le Mauricien and L'Express, have not hesitated to expose corruption scandals or abuses of political power.
Democracy index (for methodology, see Appendix)
The Economist Intelligence Unit's 2008 democracy index ranks Mauritius 26th out of 167 countries, putting it among 32 countries considered "full democracies". It is the only country in Africa to have this designation and one of only nine countries outside Western Europe and North America, the others being Australia, Costa Rica, Czech Republic, Japan, New Zealand, Slovenia, South Korea and Uruguay. Mauritius scores most highly in the Civil liberties category, beaten only by Australia and New Zealand among the nine, and beating several other full democracies, including France, Germany, the UK and the US. Its score in the Electoral process category is also high, placing it 40th out of the 167, the same ranking as Canada, Cyprus and Malta among the full democracies and Botswana and Cape Verde among African countries.
Mauritius is most weak in the Political participation category, where its low score—although the same as that of the UK and Uruguay among full democracies and Botswana and Ethiopia in Africa—places it 63rd out of the 167 and 11th out of the 49 African countries. The poor participation of women in politics contributes to Mauritius's relatively low score in this category. Of the 663 candidates that stood in the 2005 general election, only 63 were women, reflecting the conservative nature of much of Mauritian society. Members of the Southern African Development Community (SADC), which include Mauritius, set a target of 30% female representation in parliament.
| Democracy index | ||||||||
| Overall score | Overall rank | Electoral process | Government functioning | Political participation | Political culture | Civil liberties | Regime type | |
| Mauritius | 8.04 | 26 | 9.17 | 8.21 | 5.00 | 8.13 | 9.71 | Full democracy |
| Overall and component scores are on a scale of 0 to 10; overall rank is out of 167 countries. | ||||||||
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June 25, 2008
Official name
Republic of Mauritius
Form of state
Republic within the Commonwealth
Legal system
Based on English common law, the Napoleonic Code and the 1968 constitution
National legislature
National Assembly; 62 members elected by universal suffrage every five years, in 20 three-member constituencies on the island of Mauritius and one two-member constituency on Rodrigues, plus up to eight "best losers"
Elections
The last general election was held on May 5th 2010; the next national election is due in 2015; local elections will be held in December 2012
Head of state
President, elected by a simple majority of the National Assembly; the current president, Rajkeswur "Kailash" Purryag, was elected in July 2012
National government
Council of Ministers appointed and headed by the prime minister; last reshuffle in August 2011
Main political parties
Government: Alliance de l'avenir coalition formed by the Labour Party and Parti mauricien social démocrate (PMSD), plus the Mouvement rodriguais (MR); other parties in parliament: Mouvement militant mauricien (MMM), Mouvement socialiste militant (MSM), Mouvement mauricien social démocrate (MMSD), Organisation du peuple rodriguais, Front solidarité mauricienne
Prime minister, minister of defence, home affairs & external communications: Navinchandra Ramgoolam
Deputy prime minister, energy & public utilities: Ahmed Rashid Beebeejaun
Vice-prime ministers
Finance & economic development: Xavier-Luc Duval
Public infrastructure, national development unit, land transport & shipping: Anil Kumar Bachoo
Key ministers
Agro-industry & food security: Satya Veyash Faugoo
Attorney-general: Yatindra Nath Varma
Business, enterprise & co-operatives: Jim Seetaram
Civil service & administrative reforms: Sutyadeo Moutia
Education & human resources: Vasant Kumar Bunwaree
Environment & sustainable development: Devanand Virahsawmy
Fisheries & Rodrigues: Nicolas Von-Mally
Foreign affairs & international trade: Arvin Boolell
Gender equality, child development & family: Mireille Martin
Health & quality of life: Lormus Bundhoo
Housing & lands: Abu Twalib Kasenally
Industry, commerce & consumer protection: Cader Sayed-Hossen
Information & communication technology: Tassarajen Pillay Chedumbrum
Labour, industrial relations & employment: Shakeel Mohamed
Local government & outer islands: Louis Hervé Aimé
Social integration & economic empowerment: Surendra Dayal
Social security, solidarity & reform institutions: Sheilabai Bappoo
Tertiary education, science, research & technology: Rajeshwar Jeetah
Tourism & leisure: Michaël Yeung Sik Yuen
Governor of the Bank of Mauritius
Rundheersing Bheenick
November 16, 2012
Outlook for 2013-17
Review
November 16, 2012
FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT
Preparations for Mauritius's 2012 budget have begun in earnest with a storm of protest from public-sector trade unions over fears of substantial cuts in fiscal spending and their impact on public-sector jobs. On August 3rd the Ministry of Finance and Economic Development issued the scheduled “call” for submissions from all government departments and public spending bodies for the 2012-14 programme-based budget. It warned that the economy is not yet on a sustained recovery path and that it was cutting its average real GDP growth assumption for the period from 5% to 4%. The ministry also said that this would result in lower-than-expected revenue and called for all departments to review their planned spending and user charges for services, in line with this revised outlook. Departments were to make their final submissions by August 29th. In parallel, the Ministry of Civil Service announced a freeze on the creation of new public-sector jobs (around 14% of employment is in the public sector), leading to concerns that existing vacancies might also not be filled.
The minister of finance and economic development, Xavier-Luc Duval, is due to start a series of meetings with trade unions and with business representatives in the run-up to the budget. The prime minister has stepped in personally to reassure both trade unions and investors that final decisions would be taken by politicians and not what he described as “technicians”. Nevertheless, the government is clearly concerned about the pace of economic recovery and the growing credit crisis in the EU and US. Mr Duval announced that the four aims of his budget would be to boost growth, improve social safety nets, press ahead with fiscal reform and address the implications of the EU-US crisis. It is quite likely that Mr Duval's first budget will be less expansionary than the 2011 budget.
September 19, 2011
Data and charts: Annual trends charts
November 16, 2012
Mauritius: Country outlook
FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT
POLITICAL STABILITY: The main threats to political and social stability in Mauritius in 2013-17 will be economic in nature. The country's prospects are closely tied to those of the global economy and amid continued troubles in Europe, the country's main trading partner and source of tourists and investment, Mauritius faces a disappointing growth outlook in 2013. This could lead to redundancies in the key tourism sector, which is a big employer in Mauritius, and could also have a negative impact on construction activity as new hotel and real estate developments are put on hold.
ELECTION WATCH: The next general election is not due until 2015 and Mr Ramgoolam is expected to remain in power for the remainder of his term. Despite the opposition's efforts to mobilise support to oust the government through a vote of no confidence, tensions within the opposition currently prevent it from launching a credible alternative to the prime minister, Navin Ramgoolam. Unless its internal divisions are resolved the opposition will struggle to prevent the government from seeing out its term and, potentially, increasing its parliamentary majority. Given the global economic uncertainty and its repercussions on the Mauritian economy, the prime minister could seek a fresh mandate if he finds it increasingly difficult to pass legislation and enact new policies or if he fails to shore up his majority in the current parliament by attracting defectors from other parties. If the opposition was to succeed in uniting, the outcome of any snap election would be uncertain. Local elections will be held in December 2012 and will be an important gauge on the government's popularity among voters. A poor showing for the ruling coalition will boost the opposition's standings and could bolster its efforts to overthrow the government in a no-confidence vote.
INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS: The main aims of Mauritius's foreign policy are to negotiate favourable access to developed markets for its exports, to encourage foreign investment and to cultivate strong relationships with key economic partners. As a member of the Eastern and Southern Africa group, Mauritius is negotiating an economic partnership agreement (EPA) with the EU. In the meantime, Mauritius is continuing to receive financial assistance from the EU for the restructuring of the sugar sector and other development projects. An EPA under negotiation with India will consolidate the two countries' close relations, although their double-taxation agreement is likely to be amended in the medium- to long term, which could cost Mauritius many of the advantages that it offers to investors in India, with potentially serious consequences for the local financial sector. The country's relationship with China is deepening: Mauritius is to be the site of one of China's economic and trade co-operation zones in Africa. Relations with the UK are overshadowed by a long-standing dispute over the Chagos Islands. Although Mauritian politicians will denounce British policy in this matter, economic and cultural relations between the two countries will remain close.
POLICY TRENDS: Recent budgets have signalled a switch in emphasis in economic policy away from redistribution and state intervention and towards a private-sector-led strategy for economic growth, including supply-side stimulus policies such as tax cuts. The government will remain deeply involved in efforts to diversify the country's "four-pillar" economy, based on sugar, textiles, tourism and financial services, to increase its resilience to shocks and its competitiveness. Investment in education and infrastructure is vital if the shift towards a more services-orientated economy--especially the development of Mauritius as a regional centre for information and communications technology--is to succeed. Another element of economic strategy is the further development of fishing and tourism. The restructuring of the sugar sector--a large employer--will continue. However, policy will focus mainly on measures to support the economy during the current period of global instability. In particular, for most of the forecast period the government will continue its Economic Reconstruction and Competitiveness Programme, a five-year scheme that began in 2010, one of the main aims of which is to promote diversification in the tourism sector and the expansion of small and medium-sized enterprises in the textile and sugar industries. In the longer term, the government aims to reduce the economy's dependence on the slow-growing developed world and increase its links with faster-growing developing economies.
ECONOMIC GROWTH: The Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts that the euro zone economy will grow by a mere 0.4% in 2013. The continued slow growth there will continue to have a severe impact on Mauritius's own growth prospects, as Europe accounts for nearly two-thirds of the country's exports and a similar proportion of tourist arrivals, as well as being a major source of investment. However, Mauritius has a strong track record in weathering international storms. A 2013 budget aimed at stimulating growth, efforts to diversify the economy, and the potential for further monetary loosening will help to cushion some of the impact of weak external demand. We expect real GDP growth to pick up from an estimated 2.9% in 2012 to 3.3% in 2013. We expect growth to increase to an annual average rate of 4.4% in 2014-17 amid more favourable global economic prospects.
INFLATION: The country will remain heavily dependent on imports of food and fuel, which have a large weighting in the consumer price index. Consequently, movements in global commodity prices will continue to have a significant influence on local inflation, although government subsidies for some basic foods and the country's petrol price stabilisation fund limit their impact. We forecast that international oil prices will fall by 6.9% in 2013, but current domestic fuel prices have not been changed since early 2011 and are based upon the considerably lower global oil prices of late 2010. In order to reflect the rise in international price levels since then, domestic fuel prices are expected to be revised upwards in the upcoming months. Beyond 2013 we expect international oil prices to increase relatively modestly, by an average of 2.1% in 2014-16, before picking up slightly, rising by 4.5% in 2017, which should trigger only modest increases in domestic fuel prices. Meanwhile, we expect global food prices to drop in 2013-15, before recovering slightly in the last two years of the outlook period.
EXCHANGE RATES: In 2013-15 the US dollar is expected to strengthen against the euro as concerns over sovereign and banking sector debt in the euro area persist. The rupee's historical tracking of movements in the euro:dollar rate, together with the outlook for a looser monetary policy and a worsening in Mauritius's external balances, leads us to forecast an average exchange rate of MRs31.9:US$1 in 2013 and MRs32.3:US$1 in 2014. However, as economic growth, investment inflows and interest rates pick up, we expect the exchange rate to strengthen over the remainder of the forecast period, reaching an average of MRs30.7:US$1 in 2017.
EXTERNAL SECTOR: The ongoing problems in the euro zone, which typically accounts for around two-thirds of the country's merchandise exports, will lead to slow export growth in 2013. This will be offset by a fall in international food and oil prices, which will moderate import costs, although continued high capital imports on the back of the government's extensive investment programme means the import bill will remain high. Driven mainly by lower commodity prices, the trade deficit is forecast to narrow slightly in relative terms from an estimated 25.4% of GDP in 2012 to 24.4% of GDP in 2013. In 2014-17 the expected recovery in growth in Mauritius and its main trading partner, Europe, should see more rapid growth in both the import and export bills, resulting in an annual average trade deficit of 22.8% of GDP a year.
November 20, 2012
Outlook for 2012-16: Forecast summary
| Forecast summary | ||||||
| (% unless otherwise indicated) | ||||||
| 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | |
| Real GDP growth | 3.9 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 5.5 |
| Gross agricultural production growth | 3.4 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Unemployment rate (av) | 7.9 | 8.0 | 8.1 | 7.9 | 7.8 | 7.8 |
| Consumer price inflation (av) | 6.5 | 4.7 | 4.2 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 2.5 |
| Short-term interbank rate | 8.9 | 12.5 | 12.8 | 13.3 | 13.5 | 13.5 |
| Government balance (% of
GDP) | -3.2 | -4.3 | -4.6 | -3.8 | -3.7 | -3.5 |
| Exports of goods fob (US$ m) | 2,645 | 2,631 | 2,567 | 2,970 | 3,549 | 4,115 |
| Imports of goods fob (US$ m) | -4,926 | -5,111 | -5,042 | -5,478 | -6,179 | -7,020 |
| Current-account balance (US$ m) | -1,164 | -1,433 | -1,352 | -1,283 | -1,207 | -1,222 |
| Current-account balance (% of GDP) | -10.3 | -12.3 | -11.6 | -10.2 | -8.7 | -7.8 |
| External debt (year-end; US$ bn) | 5.0 | 5.6 | 6.0 | 6.3 | 6.9 | 7.3 |
| Exchange rate MRs:US$ (av) | 28.71 | 29.96 | 31.98 | 31.89 | 30.63 | 28.93 |
| Exchange rate MRs:US$ (end-period) | 29.33 | 31.77 | 32.15 | 31.67 | 29.77 | 28.05 |
| Exchange rate MRs:¥100 (av) | 35.97 | 37.80 | 38.52 | 36.74 | 34.42 | 31.36 |
| Exchange rate MRs:€ (end-period) | 37.95 | 40.66 | 40.35 | 39.12 | 37.37 | 35.27 |
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August 06, 2012
Land area
2,040 sq km (1,865 sq km excl islands of Rodrigues, Agalega and St Brandon)
Population
1.29m (official estimate, mid-2011; 1.25m island of Mauritius only)
Main towns
Population in '000 (2012 World Gazetteer estimates)
Port Louis (capital): 159.0
Beau Bassin-Rose Hill: 112.2
Vacoas-Phoenix: 108.1
Curepipe: 85.3
Quatre Bornes: 81.9
Climate
Subtropical
Weather in Port Louis (altitude 55 metres)
Hottest month, January, 23-30°C; coldest months, July-August, 17-24°C; driest month, September, 36 mm average rainfall; wettest month, March, 221 mm average rainfall
Languages
French, English, Creole, Bhojpuri, Tamil, Hindi, Urdu
Religion
Hindu (52%), Muslim (17%), Christian (30%)
Measures
Metric system for most weights and measures; land area is often measured in arpents (1 arpent=0.4221 ha=1.043 acres)
Currency
Mauritius rupee (MRs)=100 cents
Fiscal year
Until end-June 2009 the fiscal year was July 1st-June 30th; a six-month fiscal year was followed to end-December 2009; since January 2010 the fiscal year has been coterminous with the calendar year
Time
Four hours ahead of GMT
Public holidays
Fixed: January 1st-2nd (New Year); February 1st (Abolition of Slavery); March 12th (Independence/Republic Day); May 1st (Labour Day); August 15th (Assumption); November 1st (All Saints' Day); November 2nd (Arrival of Indentured Labourers); December 25th (Christmas)
Movable: Thaipoosam Cavadee (January-February); Maha Shivaratree (February-March); Chinese Spring Festival (February-March); Ougadi (March-April); Eid al-Fitr (August); Ganesh Chaturthi (September); Diwali (October-November)
March 29, 2012