Mauritania

Politics:

• Analysis

  Mauritania politics: Quick View - Tentative election dates announced

  Event

  According to the electoral commission, Commission Electorale Nationale Indépendante (CENI), polls will be held in September or October 2013.

  Analysis

  The precise date of the vote will be decided, according to the CENI, in consultation with the political parties concerned, while before the polls the commission will seek to increase transparency, by improving the distribution of national identification cards, strengthening voter enrolment and completing the registration of voters. The CENI has also been holding training sessions for officials, in partnership with the International Foundation of Electoral Systems, a group that seeks to strengthen electoral systems and build local electoral capacity.

  Such measures are crucial given that the legislative and municipal elections were originally due to be held in October 2011, but were postponed "indefinitely" because the government and opposition could not agree on their organisation. This in turn reflects opposition concerns about elections since the country returned to democracy in 2009. Opposition leaders decried the July 2009 presidential polls, which Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz won in one round of voting, with 53% of votes, as a charade, and alleged massive electoral fraud. Having initially refused to accept the president's legitimacy, the opposition Co-ordination de l'opposition démocratique (COD) has more recently disputed the credibility of the country's new electoral commission, raising concerns about its likely attitude towards future election results.

  It remains to be seen whether opposition groups will participate in the polls. The opposition's existing tactics have not proved overly successful, since groups have failed to make substantial political capital from growing general dissatisfaction with living standards-or, indeed, the protracted failure to hold National Assembly elections. However, opposition spokesmen have suggested that the timeframe envisaged is too short, meaning that parties will not have enough time to campaign, and the CENI insufficient time to compile a valid electoral register. Thus consultations on the precise date are likely to prove crucial.

  March 06, 2013

• Background

  Mauritania: Political forces

  National Assembly election results, 2006
  (no. of seats)
  Rassemblement des forces democratiques (RFD)	15
  Union des forces du progres (UFP)	8
  Parti republicain pour la democratie et le renouveau (PRDR)	7
  Alliance populaire progressiste (APP)	5
  Rassemblement pour la democratie et l'unite (RDU)	3
  Union pour la democratie et le progres (UDP)	3
  Independent	41
  Others	13
  Total	95
  Source: Ministere de l'interieur, des postes et des telecommunications.

  Download text file (csv format)

  Political power is fragmented

  The legislative election in late 2006 highlighted the fragmentation of political power and the weakness of political parties, as independents obtained 43% of all seats in the lower house of parliament, the National Assembly. Mr Abdallahi's victory at the 2007 presidential poll was partly based on the support of these independents.

  PRDS/PRDR

  Political life was dominated by Mr Ould Taya's party, the PRDS, from the establishment of multiparty politics in 1991 until his ouster from power in 2005. Following the ousting of Mr Ould Taya, the PRDS was dissolved as a result of a judicial ruling, although it later reformed as the Parti republicain pour la democratie et le renouveau (PRDR) with many of the same cadres still in place. The PRDR, led by a lawyer and former diplomat, Sidi Mohamed Ould Mohamed Vall, won seven of 95 seats in the National Assembly at the 2006 legislative election. Despite forming part of the pro-presidential majority in parliament, the PRDR failed to secure a ministerial portfolio in the cabinet reshuffle of July 2008, which led to a rift with Mr Abdallahi and the prime minister, Yahya Ould Ahmed Waghef. The party consequently welcomed the August 2008 coup that deposed Mr Abdallahi, attempting to justify it as necessary to maintain stability and defend democratic institutions.

  PNDD

  In early 2008 Mr Abdallahi attempted to establish a more stable basis for his regime by creating a new presidential party, Pacte national pour la democratie et le developpement (PNDD), which grouped together most of the parliamentarians who were elected as independents in 2006, as well as 20 small political parties. However, the PNDD was unable to generate coherent support for the government: the diversity of its members (ranging from regional strongmen closely linked with Mr Ould Taya's rule to urban politicians with a strong democratic record) meant that party discipline was poor. Tensions among the party's factions and Mr Abdallahi increased, and in August 2008 around one-half of PNDD members left.

  Other parties

  Those parties that had traditionally opposed Mr Ould Taya's regime remain important players in the country's political system. The party led by Mr Ould Daddah, Rassemblement des forces democratiques (RFD), is the largest party in the new National Assembly, with 15 out of a total of 95 seats, and remains the most popular in the capital, Nouakchott. Following the August 2008 coup, the RFD pointedly did not condemn the overthrow of Mr Abdallahi or demand his reinstatement. The Union des forces du progres (UFP), led by Mohamed Ould Maouloud, is the second-largest party. Although previously an opposition party, the UFP decided to join Mr Abdallahi's short-lived second cabinet. The Alliance populaire progressiste remains the political voice for the Haratine ethnic group and was represented in all of Mr Abdallahi's cabinets, where it successfully pressed for anti-slavery legislation.

  The military

  The armed forces are a powerful element in Mauritanian society and have been the source of the numerous successful and unsuccessful coup attempts that have plagued the country since independence. Although they played an instrumental role in ousting Mr Ould Taya and establishing democratic rule within a relatively short transition period, many members of the military junta, Conseil militaire pour la justice et la democratie (CMJD), retained their positions in the subsequent democratically elected regime. Furthermore, their ousting of Mr Abdallahi cast serious doubts over their willingness to relinquish power to democratically elected civilians.

  September 01, 2008

• Structure

  Mauritania: Political structure

  Official name

  République islamique de Mauritanie

  Form of state

  Arab and African Islamic republic

  Legal system

  Based on the 1991 constitution, strongly influenced by sharia (Islamic law)

  National legislature

  The bicameral parliament consists of the Senate, with 56 members, and the National Assembly, with 95 seats

  National elections

  July 2009 (presidential), November 2009 (legislative); next municipal elections and National Assembly elections in October 2011 (delayed and not yet rescheduled) and presidential election in 2014

  Head of state

  Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz

  National government

  On July 18th 2009 the leader of a military coup in August 2008, Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz, won a presidential election in one round of voting, securing 53% of the vote; following his election, Mr Abdel Aziz appointed a new government

  Main political parties

  The main political parties are: Union pour la République (UPR); Parti républicain pour la démocratie et le renouveau (PRDR); Rassemblement des forces démocratiques (RFD); Union des forces du progrès (UFP); Alliance populaire progressiste (APP); Union pour la démocratie et le développement (UDP); Rassemblement pour la démocratie et l'unité (RDU); Parti mauritanien pour l'union et le changement (Hatem); Front populaire mauritanien (FPM); Pacte national pour la démocratie et le développement (PNDD); Union des forces démocratiques (UFD); Alliance pour la justice et la démocratie/Mouvement pour la rénovation (AJD/MR); Tawassoul Party; El Wiam

  Key ministers

  Prime minister: Moulaye Ould Mohamed Laghdaf

  Civil service: Comba Ba

  Culture, youth & sports: Cissé Mint Cheikh Ould Boyde

  Defence: Ahmedou Ould Idey Ould Mohamed Radhi

  Economic affairs & development: Sidi Ould Tah

  Education: Ahmed Ould Baya

  Energy, oil & mines: Taleb Ould Abdi Vall

  Finance: Thiam Diombar

  Fisheries & maritime economy: Ghdafna Ould Ehih

  Foreign affairs & co-operation: Hamadi Ould Hamadi

  Health: Housseynou Hamady Ba

  Infrastructure, urban planning & housing: Ismail Ould Bedde Ould Cheikh Sidiya

  Interior & decentralisation: Mohamed Ould Boilil

  Justice: Abidine Ould el Khair

  Rural development: Brahim Ould M'bareck Ould Mohamed El Moctar

  Trade, tourism & crafts: Bomba Ould Daramane

  Transport & equipment: Yahya Ould Hademine

  Central Bank governor

  Sid'Ahmed Ould Raiss

  January 11, 2013

Economy:

• Background

  Mauritania: Education

  Basic education was made compulsory for all children from mid-2001. Consequently, primary school enrolment is estimated to have risen from 35% in 1991 to 99% in 2005, according to the World Bank. However, only 15% of pupils go on to secondary school, although this figure excludes attendance at the many private and Quranic schools. Arabic and African languages (Pular, Soninke and Wolof) have replaced French as the language of instruction since 1985, and all pupils learn a second national language (French or Arabic). Fluency in Arabic is a condition of employment in the public sector. Although low compared with the rest of the world, the adult literacy rate is high for the region: the World Bank estimates that 51% of the adult population was literate in 2000, the latest year for which it provides data. The World Bank has granted numerous credits over the past several years for education programmes, with a total of US$49.2m committed as of March 2008.

  September 01, 2008

• Structure

  Mauritania: Economic structure

  Economic structure: Annual indicators

  	2008a	2009a	2010a	2011b	2012b
  GDP at market prices (UM bn)	854.0	793.0	958.2	1,118.2	1,178.9
  GDP (US$ bn)	3.6	3.0	3.5	4.0	4.1
  Real GDP growth (%)	3.5	-1.2	5.2	4.7	5.0
  Consumer price inflation (av; %)	7.3	2.2	6.3	5.7a	6.5
  Population (m)	3.3	3.4b	3.5b	3.5	3.6
  Exports of goods fob (US$ m)	1,787.6	1,370.1	2,041.1	2,798.6	2,664.7
  Imports of goods fob (US$ m)	1,941.2	1,450.0	2,022.2	2,656.0	2,917.1
  Current-account balance (US$ m)	-557.3b	-412.7b	-452.7b	-374.8	-808.0
  Foreign-exchange reserves excl gold (US$ m)	188.6	225.4	271.7	484.7a	500.0a
  Total external debt (US$ bn)	2.0	2.0	2.3	2.7	2.9
  Debt-service ratio, paid (%)	3.1	4.8	2.9b	2.0	2.8
  Exchange rate (av) UM:US$	238.2	262.4	275.9	281.1a	288.5a
  a Actual. b Economist Intelligence Unit estimates.

  Download the numbers in Excel

  Origins of gross domestic product 2009a	% of total	Components of gross domestic product 2009a	% of total
  Agriculture	20.2	Private consumption	74.3
  Industry	35.1	Government consumption	16.1
  Services	44.7	Gross fixed investment	27.7
  		Exports of goods & services	49.0
  		Imports of goods & services	67.0
  Principal exports 2007b	% of total	Principal imports 2007b	% of total
  Iron ore	38.5	Oil exploration equipment	34.5
  Crude oil	23.3	Petroleum products	20.3
  Fish & fish products	17.0	Others	45.2
  Copper	11.8
  Main destinations of exports 2011c	% of total	Main origins of imports 2011c	% of total
  China	50.5	China	16.9
  Italy	9.6	Netherlands	12.2
  France	8.8	France	11.8
  Côte d'Ivoire	5.5	US	10.6
  a Actual. b Economist Intelligence Unit estimates. c Derived from partners' trade returns; subject to a wide margin of error.

  Download the numbers in Excel

  Download text file (csv format)

  January 11, 2013

• Outlook

  Mauritania: Country outlook

  Mauritania: Country outlook

  FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT

  OVERVIEW: The president, Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz, is likely to remain in power until the next presidential poll in 2014, although militant Islamists and disaffected military personnel represent potential threats. The opposition Co-ordination de l'opposition démocratique (COD) is disputing the credibility of the country's new electoral commission, suggesting that it may challenge the legitimacy of future election results. Mauritania's relations with regional and international partners will continue to be dominated by the issue of terrorism, and in particular an Islamist terrorist group, al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), which has made substantial territorial gains in Mali. Donor support and foreign investor interest in the mining and oil sectors should help to sustain average annual growth of 5.5% in the 2013-14 forecast period. Global food and fuel prices are expected to remain below 2012 levels in 2013-14, enabling inflation to trend downwards from an estimated 6.5% in 2012 to 5.9% in 2014 (assuming normal agricultural conditions). Strong aid flows will boost Mauritania's current transfers surplus and will contribute to an overall narrowing of the current-account deficit from an estimated 19.8% of GDP in 2012 to 10.1% of GDP in 2014.

  DOMESTIC POLITICS: The Economist Intelligence Unit's central forecast remains that Mr Abdel Aziz will remain in power until the next presidential election, despite domestic tensions and his being allegedly accidentally shot and wounded by his own troops in October 2012. Opposition parties have thus far failed to make substantial political capital from general dissatisfaction with living standards or the continued failure either to hold National Assembly elections, due to take place in October 2011, or to set a new election date. Thus the government is likely to persist with its refusal to negotiate with the radical opposition, seeking instead to target improvements in living standards and working conditions. Increased foreign aid inflows should have a positive impact on local livelihoods, but aid may be distributed unevenly and living standards remain vulnerable to drought, thus increasing the potential for unrest. Nonetheless, the main threats to political stability probably stem from AQIM and the military. The government's campaign against AQIM has been dealt a potential blow by the March 2012 coup in Mali, which resulted in a substantial increase in AQIM-held territory in the north of that country, and the subsequent failure of both the Malian government and broader regional forces to mount an effective campaign against insurgents. Given the area's porous borders, the Mauritanian authorities remain concerned about an increase in the number of attacks perpetrated by the group, particularly as AQIM fighters were reportedly based close to the Mauritanian border in late 2012. In addition, the events in Mali have already led to an influx of refugees, imposing additional strain on drought-hit areas. The military is another potential threat. The president's wounding by his own troops has inevitably sparked rumours of a failed assassination attempt. He is not universally popular with the military, and some elements of the army are believed to feel sympathy for previous military rulers such as Maaouya Ould Sid'Ahmed Taya and Ely Ould Mohamed Vall. Military discontent could rise should the president commit the army to participation in the regional task-force planned to tackle rebel groups in northern Mali. Thus far, however, Mr Abdel Aziz has ruled out any such participation, and the fact that there has been no broad military unrest in the wake of his shooting suggests that, for the time being, the army remains loyal to the current administration. Following Mr Abdel Aziz's victory in the 2009 presidential election, the ruling Union pour la République has evolved from a hastily constructed vehicle of presidential power into a fully fledged political party. The president's campaign against terrorism and his tough rhetoric on fighting corruption in public service have increased his popularity. Meanwhile, the COD, which has benefited from defections from the presidential camp, has been side-stepped by the regime in parliament. Should he decide to stand again, Mr Abdel Aziz looks well-placed to perform strongly in the 2014 presidential polls.

  INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS: Mauritania's relations with its West African neighbours will continue to be dominated by the issue of AQIM following the March 2012 coup in Mali, which led to substantial territorial gains for the group. This has already prompted a meeting of the security structure for the Sahara operated by Mauritania, Algeria and Niger-Comité d'état-major opérationnel conjoint. Although the government has so far ruled out any direct participation in the planned military force operating under the aegis of the regional grouping, the Economic Community of West African States, Mauritania may offer to provide logistical or other support. Mauritania is also keen to increase international participation, and has offered to host a Sahelian-focused UN counterterrorism unit within its borders. However, there is likely to be considerable opposition among domestic political parties to the involvement of Western intelligence and security services in the government's campaign against terrorists.

  POLICY TRENDS: Economic policy over 2013-14 will largely be driven by the country's third poverty reduction strategy paper (a national development strategy that is often required for development programmes with the IMF and the World Bank). The Fund remains positive about the country's three-year Extended Credit Facility (ECF), approved in March 2010, with the fifth review, conducted in November 2012, leading to the disbursal of SDR11.04m (US$16.9m), taking the total to US$101.6m. As per the Fund, all quantitative performance criteria for end-June 2012 were met with "comfortable" margins, while most structural benchmarks were also adhered to, although there was some delay on the completion of a study of electricity tariffs. The ECF is likely to be extended slightly, from March to June, and although it is questionable whether Mauritania will make substantial progress with medium-term challenges such as the reform of food price subsidies and strict moves to curb public-sector pay, the likelihood is that the government will make sufficient progress with its current reform efforts to receive another positive report when the Fund undertakes the sixth and final review of the ECF in mid-2013. In addition to improvements in the provision of basic public services, such as healthcare, water distribution and education, the government will focus on efforts to maintain economic stability and improve the efficiency of the public administration, as well as improving energy and transportation infrastructure to reduce the cost of exploiting the country's natural resources. The government remains nervous of the possibility of large-scale public protests, particularly in the wake of the shooting of the president in October 2012, and concerns about the possibility of unrest have led the administration to offer large food price subsidies and to promise public-sector jobs for educated young people. The government will continue to engineer popular public-spending projects in order to minimise public protests. The budget law for 2013, passed in December 2012, provides for expenditure of UM389bn (US$1.3bn), 12% up on the 2012 measure. Although details remain scant, the authorities appear to be seeking an increase in spending on the defence and national security sector, which is slated to account for more than 11% (UM44.5bn) of total expenditure.

  ECONOMIC GROWTH: Donor support and foreign investment interest in the mining and oil sectors are expected to remain healthy in 2013-14 (assuming that the 2014 election process does not cause substantial political instability), helping to boost economic growth. Exploration and investment for non-ferrous metals will be a major driver of growth. Oil exploration will also contribute, although the lag between prospecting for viable oilfields and their coming on stream means that overall oil production is expected to continue to decline well into 2013-14. Agricultural output should rebound in 2013-14, assuming normal weather patterns in the region. Fisheries output will also rise, with the total catch expected to grow in 2013-14, although this will probably be at the expense of future hauls. Prices of food, feedstuffs and beverages are forecast to weaken in 2013-14, but those of industrial raw materials will register solid growth of an annual average of 5.6% after a sharp contraction in 2012. Higher prices will support investor interest, and exploration in and output from the non-oil minerals sector will support the medium-term growth outlook. This will hold particularly for non-ferrous metals, such as copper and gold. (Average copper prices are expected to rise by 7.7% in 2013 and 9% in 2014). Investor interest in uranium mining will also remain strong, sustained by an 11.4% annual average increase in prices in 2013-14, and new investment by the national iron producer, Société nationale industrielle et minière, will see new construction and the expansion of its activities over the next five years. A master plan for the electricity sector is being implemented, with the national electricity company being restructured and recapitalised with the support of donors, and increased tariffs for large users are likely to be implemented. Dynamic services such as banking and telecommunications will grow as companies that were previously deterred from expanding their operations will now have more confidence in the regulatory environment and the government's willingness to honour contracts. Overall, we forecast real GDP growth of 5.6% in 2013 (up from an estimated 5% in 2012), moderating slightly to 5.4% in 2014. However, there are strong downside risks from the danger of renewed problems in the global economy and threats to the stability of the euro zone. A period of sustained political instability or a larger than expected drop in international commodity prices, due to a major contraction in global demand, would see Mauritania's current growth forecast weaken considerably.

  EXTERNAL ACCOUNT: International prices for Mauritania's exports, dominated by oil and other minerals, are likely to register a mixed performance in 2013-14. Oil prices are forecast to contract by 7.2% in 2013 before registering a slight (0.7%) increase in 2014, although they will remain high by historical standards. Prices of industrial raw materials should register solid growth after a sharp contraction in 2012. Overall, exports should grow steadily, from an estimated US$2.75bn in 2013 to US$3bn in 2014-although Mauritania remains highly vulnerable to developments in Europe, exports to which represent almost one-third of GDP. Demand for imports will also rise, driven in part by increased oil and gas exploration, as well as public investment, and after widening to US$351m in 2013-in part because the US dollar prices of Mauritania's exports will decline more sharply than those of the country's imports-the trade deficit will moderate to US$293m in 2014. The country's dependence on imported services is expected to remain high over 2013-14, again primarily as a result of increased activity in the extractive sector, meaning that the services account will remain in substantial deficit. In addition, tourism receipts are expected to remain depressed given the ongoing fight against terrorism in the country and the headlines that this generates. Strong aid flows will boost the surplus on the current transfers account from an estimated US$342m in 2013 to US$409m in 2014, and improvements in the income and transfers balances will help to narrow the current-account deficit from an estimated 19.8% of GDP in 2012 to 10.1% of GDP in 2014. There will be no difficulties in financing the current account, as the capital account will post a large surplus because of foreign investment in the extractive industries. We expect that despite the government's obvious preference for exchange-rate stability with the dollar, the ouguiya will depreciate from UM294.5:US$1 in 2013 to UM297.3:US$1 in 2014, largely reflecting a continued move away from the previous managed float system

  January 11, 2013

View detailed map

Country Briefing

Land area

1,030,700 sq km

Population

3.3m (2012 World Gazetteer estimate; 2.5m in December 2000 census result)

Main towns

(Population estimates 2012, World Gazetteer):

Nouakchott (capital): 870,073

Kiffa: 91,336

Nouadhibou: 85,337

Climate

About 80% desert (less than 200 mm rainfall per year); only the southern extremity supports rain-fed vegetation; temperatures average more than 25°C, with wide daily and seasonal fluctuations

Weather in Nouakchott (altitude 21 metres)

Hottest month, September (24-34°C); coldest month, December (13-28°C); irregular rains occur from July to October

Languages

Arabic (official), French, Pular, Soninké, Wolof

Measures

Metric system

Currency

Ouguiya (UM)

Time

GMT

Public holidays

Fixed: January 1st (New Year), May 1st (Labour Day), May 25th (African Unity Day), July 10th (Armed Forces Day), November 28th (Independence Day); all Islamic holidays are observed in accordance with the lunar calendar, meaning that the dates of the following are not fixed: Mawlid al-Nabi (the birthday of the Prophet); Eid al-Fitr (end of Ramadan); Eid al-Adha (Feast of the Sacrifice); Islamic New Year

January 11, 2013