Mauritania

Politics:

• Analysis

  Mauritania politics: Quick View - Mauritania seeks to host UN counterterror

  Event

  Mauritania has called for the hosting of a Sahelian-focused, UN counterterrorism unit within its borders.

  Analysis

  Speaking to the UN General Assembly at end-September, Mauritania's foreign minister, Hamadi Ould Hamadi, stated that the country was willing to host-and offer "protection and support"-to a UN Counter-Terrorism and Counter-Organised Crime Centre in the Sahel. The offer comes at a time of growing international concern about the increase of terrorist activity in the Sahel and West African region.

  Tunisia's president, Moncef Marzouki, has recently stated that the centre of the terrorist movement is "moving from Afghanistan and Pakistan to the Arab Maghreb region", while countries in the region from Nigeria to Mali have faced an upsurge in activity by Islamist extremists. Mauritania itself has waged a long campaign against al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), which has been operating in the country since at least 2005, and which has kidnapped and killed Western tourists, aid workers and Mauritanian soldiers, as well as launching attacks on foreign diplomatic missions in Mauritania. However, long-standing obstacles to eradicating the problem-including porous borders, the weakness of state institutions, sociopolitical tensions rooted in tribal structures, and long-standing ethnic and racial divisions-have been exacerbated by the March 2012 coup in neighbouring Mali, which resulted in a substantial increase in AQIM-held territory in the north of that country.

  Mauritania has already played a key role in seeking a regional response to the situation in Mali and the broader struggle against AQIM, and the foreign minister's comments are a natural extension of this. Equally, the government believes that the establishment of the UN centre in Mauritania would be a reward for its counterterrorism efforts. However, there remains considerable opposition among mainstream political parties to the involvement of Western intelligence and security services in the government's campaign against terrorists. Invaluable though such foreign support is, it risks turning popular opinion against the campaign-particularly if civilians are harmed during joint operations.

  October 16, 2012

• Background

  Mauritania: Political forces

  National Assembly election results, 2006
  (no. of seats)
  Rassemblement des forces democratiques (RFD)	15
  Union des forces du progres (UFP)	8
  Parti republicain pour la democratie et le renouveau (PRDR)	7
  Alliance populaire progressiste (APP)	5
  Rassemblement pour la democratie et l'unite (RDU)	3
  Union pour la democratie et le progres (UDP)	3
  Independent	41
  Others	13
  Total	95
  Source: Ministere de l'interieur, des postes et des telecommunications.

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  Political power is fragmented

  The legislative election in late 2006 highlighted the fragmentation of political power and the weakness of political parties, as independents obtained 43% of all seats in the lower house of parliament, the National Assembly. Mr Abdallahi's victory at the 2007 presidential poll was partly based on the support of these independents.

  PRDS/PRDR

  Political life was dominated by Mr Ould Taya's party, the PRDS, from the establishment of multiparty politics in 1991 until his ouster from power in 2005. Following the ousting of Mr Ould Taya, the PRDS was dissolved as a result of a judicial ruling, although it later reformed as the Parti republicain pour la democratie et le renouveau (PRDR) with many of the same cadres still in place. The PRDR, led by a lawyer and former diplomat, Sidi Mohamed Ould Mohamed Vall, won seven of 95 seats in the National Assembly at the 2006 legislative election. Despite forming part of the pro-presidential majority in parliament, the PRDR failed to secure a ministerial portfolio in the cabinet reshuffle of July 2008, which led to a rift with Mr Abdallahi and the prime minister, Yahya Ould Ahmed Waghef. The party consequently welcomed the August 2008 coup that deposed Mr Abdallahi, attempting to justify it as necessary to maintain stability and defend democratic institutions.

  PNDD

  In early 2008 Mr Abdallahi attempted to establish a more stable basis for his regime by creating a new presidential party, Pacte national pour la democratie et le developpement (PNDD), which grouped together most of the parliamentarians who were elected as independents in 2006, as well as 20 small political parties. However, the PNDD was unable to generate coherent support for the government: the diversity of its members (ranging from regional strongmen closely linked with Mr Ould Taya's rule to urban politicians with a strong democratic record) meant that party discipline was poor. Tensions among the party's factions and Mr Abdallahi increased, and in August 2008 around one-half of PNDD members left.

  Other parties

  Those parties that had traditionally opposed Mr Ould Taya's regime remain important players in the country's political system. The party led by Mr Ould Daddah, Rassemblement des forces democratiques (RFD), is the largest party in the new National Assembly, with 15 out of a total of 95 seats, and remains the most popular in the capital, Nouakchott. Following the August 2008 coup, the RFD pointedly did not condemn the overthrow of Mr Abdallahi or demand his reinstatement. The Union des forces du progres (UFP), led by Mohamed Ould Maouloud, is the second-largest party. Although previously an opposition party, the UFP decided to join Mr Abdallahi's short-lived second cabinet. The Alliance populaire progressiste remains the political voice for the Haratine ethnic group and was represented in all of Mr Abdallahi's cabinets, where it successfully pressed for anti-slavery legislation.

  The military

  The armed forces are a powerful element in Mauritanian society and have been the source of the numerous successful and unsuccessful coup attempts that have plagued the country since independence. Although they played an instrumental role in ousting Mr Ould Taya and establishing democratic rule within a relatively short transition period, many members of the military junta, Conseil militaire pour la justice et la democratie (CMJD), retained their positions in the subsequent democratically elected regime. Furthermore, their ousting of Mr Abdallahi cast serious doubts over their willingness to relinquish power to democratically elected civilians.

  September 01, 2008

• Structure

  Mauritania: Political structure

  Official name

  République islamique de Mauritanie

  Form of state

  Arab and African Islamic republic

  Legal system

  Based on the 1991 constitution, strongly influenced by sharia (Islamic law)

  National legislature

  The bicameral parliament consists of the Senate, with 56 members, and the National Assembly, with 95 seats

  National elections

  July 2009 (presidential), November 2009 (legislative); next municipal elections and National Assembly elections in October 2011 (delayed and not yet rescheduled) and presidential election in 2014

  Head of state

  Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz

  National government

  On July 18th 2009 the leader of a military coup in August 2008, Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz, won a presidential election in one round of voting, securing 53% of the vote; following his election, Mr Abdel Aziz appointed a new government

  Main political parties

  The main political parties are: Union pour la République (UPR); Parti républicain pour la démocratie et le renouveau (PRDR); Rassemblement des forces démocratiques (RFD); Union des forces du progrès (UFP); Alliance populaire progressiste (APP); Union pour la démocratie et le développement (UDP); Rassemblement pour la démocratie et l'unité (RDU); Parti mauritanien pour l'union et le changement (Hatem); Front populaire mauritanien (FPM); Pacte national pour la démocratie et le développement (PNDD); Union des forces démocratiques (UFD); Alliance pour la justice et la démocratie/Mouvement pour la rénovation (AJD/MR); Tawassoul Party; El Wiam

  Key ministers

  Prime minister: Moulaye Ould Mohamed Laghdaf

  Civil service: Comba Ba

  Culture, youth & sports: Cissé Mint Cheikh Ould Boyde

  Defence: Ahmedou Ould Idey Ould Mohamed Radhi

  Economic affairs & development: Sidi Ould Tah

  Education: Ahmed Ould Baya

  Energy, oil & mines: Taleb Ould Abdi Vall

  Finance: Thiam Diombar

  Fisheries & maritime economy: Ghdafna Ould Ehih

  Foreign affairs & co-operation: Hamadi Ould Hamadi

  Health: Housseynou Hamady Ba

  Infrastructure, urban planning & housing: Ismail Ould Bedde Ould Cheikh Sidiya

  Interior & decentralisation: Mohamed Ould Boilil

  Justice: Abidine Ould el Khair

  Rural development: Brahim Ould M'bareck Ould Mohamed El Moctar

  Trade, tourism & crafts: Bomba Ould Daramane

  Transport & equipment: Yahya Ould Hademine

  Central Bank governor

  Sid'Ahmed Ould Raiss

  October 24, 2012

Economy:

• Background

  Mauritania: Education

  Basic education was made compulsory for all children from mid-2001. Consequently, primary school enrolment is estimated to have risen from 35% in 1991 to 99% in 2005, according to the World Bank. However, only 15% of pupils go on to secondary school, although this figure excludes attendance at the many private and Quranic schools. Arabic and African languages (Pular, Soninke and Wolof) have replaced French as the language of instruction since 1985, and all pupils learn a second national language (French or Arabic). Fluency in Arabic is a condition of employment in the public sector. Although low compared with the rest of the world, the adult literacy rate is high for the region: the World Bank estimates that 51% of the adult population was literate in 2000, the latest year for which it provides data. The World Bank has granted numerous credits over the past several years for education programmes, with a total of US$49.2m committed as of March 2008.

  September 01, 2008

• Structure

  Mauritania: Economic structure

  Economic structure: Annual indicators

  	2008a	2009a	2010a	2011b	2012b
  GDP at market prices (UM bn)	854.0	793.0	958.2	1,118.2	1,185.5
  GDP (US$ bn)	3.6	3.0	3.5	4.0	4.1
  Real GDP growth (%)	3.5	-1.2	5.2	4.7	5.0
  Consumer price inflation (av; %)	7.3	2.2	6.3	5.7a	6.5
  Population (m)	3.3	3.4b	3.5b	3.5	3.6
  Exports of goods fob (US$ m)	1,787.6	1,370.1	2,041.1	2,798.6	2,686.4
  Imports of goods fob (US$ m)	1,941.2	1,450.0	2,022.2	2,655.8	2,920.4
  Current-account balance (US$ m)	-557.3b	-412.7b	-452.6b	-374.6	-791.7
  Foreign-exchange reserves excl gold (US$ m)	188.6	225.4	271.7	484.7a	500.0a
  Total external debt (US$ bn)	2.0	2.0	2.3	2.8	2.9
  Debt-service ratio, paid (%)	3.1	4.8	2.4b	1.6	1.9
  Exchange rate UM:US$ (av)	238.2	262.4	275.9	281.1a	288.5a
  a Actual. b Economist Intelligence Unit estimates.

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  Origins of gross domestic product 2009a	% of total	Components of gross domestic product 2009a	% of total
  Agriculture	20.2	Private consumption	74.3
  Industry	35.1	Government consumption	16.1
  Services	44.7	Gross fixed investment	27.7
  		Exports of goods & services	49.0
  		Imports of goods & services	67.0
  Principal exports 2007b	% of total	Principal imports 2007b	% of total
  Iron ore	38.5	Oil exploration equipment	34.5
  Crude oil	23.3	Petroleum products	20.3
  Fish & fish products	17.0	Others	45.2
  Copper	11.8
  Main destinations of exports 2011c	% of total	Main origins of imports 2011c	% of total
  China	50.5	China	16.9
  Italy	9.6	Netherlands	12.2
  France	8.8	France	11.8
  Côte d'Ivoire	5.5	US	10.6
  a Actual. b Economist Intelligence Unit estimates. c Derived from partners' trade returns; subject to a wide margin of error.

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  Download text file (csv format)

  October 24, 2012

• Outlook

  Mauritania: Country outlook

  Mauritania: Country outlook

  FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT

  OVERVIEW: Mauritania's president, Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz, is likely to remain in power until the next presidential poll in mid-2014, although militant Islamists and disaffected military personnel represent potential threats. The opposition Co-ordination de l'opposition démocratique (COD) is disputing the credibility of the country's new electoral commission, suggesting that it may dispute the legitimacy of future election results. Mauritania's relations with its West African neighbours-and the international community-will continue to be dominated by the issue of terrorism, and in particular an Islamist terrorist group, al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM). Strong mining revenue and improved revenue-collection efforts will help to pay for a more comprehensive drought-relief programme. Donor support and foreign investor interest in the mining and oil sectors should help to sustain annual growth of 5-6% in the 2013-14 forecast period. Global food and fuel prices are expected to remain below 2012 levels in 2013-14, enabling inflation to trend downwards from an estimated 6.5% in 2012 to 5.9% in 2014 (assuming normal agricultural conditions).

  DOMESTIC POLITICS: The Economist Intelligence Unit's central forecast remains that the president will remain in power until the next presidential election, despite domestic tensions and his allegedly accidental wounding during a shooting in October 2012. Somewhat hindered by the country's low population density, public protest movements have not so far developed a critical mass or sufficiently connected other important constituencies so as to threaten the existence of the regime through street-based protests. The government is likely to persist with its refusal to negotiate with the radical opposition, or indeed the protest movement, seeking instead to target improvements in living standards and working conditions. Increased foreign aid inflows should have a positive impact on local livelihoods, but aid may be distributed unevenly and living standards remain vulnerable to drought, thus increasing the potential for unrest. Nonetheless, the main threats to political stability probably stem from AQIM, and the military. The government's campaign against AQIM has been dealt a potential blow by the March 2012 coup in Mali, which resulted in a substantial increase in AQIM-held territory in the north of that country. Given the area's porous borders, the Mauritanian authorities remain concerned about an increase in the number of attacks perpetrated by the group, and the events in Mali have already led to an influx of refugees, imposing additional strain on the drought-hit areas. The military is another potential threat. Mauritania has an established history of military interventions in politics, and although the president-a former general-is believed to command the overall respect of the army, another coup attempt cannot be ruled out altogether. Indeed, the president's wounding by his own troops-in an allegedly accidental shooting in October 2012-has inevitably sparked rumours of a failed assassination attempt. The president, who was in France receiving hospital treatment as of late October, is not universally popular with the military, and some elements of the army are believed to feel sympathy for previous military rulers such as Maaouya Ould Sid'Ahmed Taya and Ely Ould Mohamed Vall. That said, however, the fact that the shooting was not followed by any broader military unrest suggests that, for the time being, the army remains loyal to the current administration. Following Mr Abdel Aziz's victory in the presidential election, the ruling Union pour la République has evolved from a hastily constructed vehicle of presidential power into a fully fledged political party. The president's campaign against terrorism and his tough rhetoric on fighting corruption in public service have increased his popularity. Meanwhile, the COD, which has benefited from defections from the presidential camp, has been side-stepped by the regime in parliament. The COD initially refused to accept the legitimacy of the president and became splintered over whether to engage the government fully in negotiations. The COD continues to reject suggestions of a new dialogue with the government and is currently disputing the credibility of the new electoral commission, which suggests that it may contest the legitimacy of the election results when polls are held. Should he decide to stand again, Mr Abdel Aziz looks well-placed to perform strongly in the next presidential polls. While Mr Vall-a retired general who led the coup that ended the authoritarian Maaouiya Ould Taya regime in 2005-has hinted that he may run, it remains to be seen whether Mr Vall will be able to build public support for such a campaign, since he gained less than 4% of the vote in the 2009 election. Indeed, his candidature could split the opposition vote.

  INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS: Relations with China, now Mauritania's largest trading partner, are set to become closer, especially in the development of ancillary infrastructure for the oil industry. Mauritanian imports from China rose by nearly 40% year on year to US$216m in the first half of 2012, while exports to China declined by 0.4% over the same period. Nonetheless, the trade balance remains strongly in Mauritania's favour, with Chinese imports from the country totalling US$753m. Economic and political ties with the Arab world will strengthen, particularly following recent generous aid pledges to Mauritania. Mauritania's relations with its West African neighbours will continue to be dominated by the issue of AQIM following the March 2012 coup in Mali. There is a possibility of co-ordinated action between Mauritania and a military force operating under the aegis of the regional grouping, the Economic Community of West African States. Mauritania is also keen to increase international participation, and has offered to host a Sahelian-focused UN counterterrorism unit within its borders. However, there is likely to be considerable opposition among domestic political parties to the involvement of Western intelligence and security services in the government's campaign against terrorists. Invaluable though such foreign support is, it could turn popular opinion against the campaign-particularly if civilians are harmed during joint operations. The terrorists, aware of this, will continue to portray themselves as national defenders against "infidel" invaders, despite the fact that their own ranks comprise many foreign militants. Mauritania's relations with the international community may also be coloured by its decision to extradite a Libyan former intelligence chief, Abdullah al-Senussi, to his home country rather than handing him over to the International Criminal Court, as had been sought by European governments, as well as some West African states. However, given Mauritania's continued strong role in the fight against terrorism in the subregion, relations are unlikely to break down over the issue.

  POLICY TRENDS: Economic policy will largely be driven by the country's third poverty reduction strategy paper (a national development strategy that is often required for development programmes with the IMF and the World Bank), covering the 2011-15 period. In addition to improvements in the provision of basic public services, such as healthcare, water distribution and education, the government will focus on efforts to maintain economic stability and improve the efficiency of the public administration, as well as improving energy and transportation infrastructure to reduce the cost of exploiting the country's natural resources. Protests across the country, along the lines of demonstrations elsewhere in the Arab world, have also led the government to offer large food price subsidies, as well as promises of public-sector job creation to employ educated youth. The government will continue to engineer popular public-spending projects in order to minimise public protests. The Fund remains positive about the country's three-year Extended Credit Facility (ECF), approved in March 2010, describing performance as "strong" in the third ECF review, in July 2012, and disbursing a further US$17.1m. However, the programme recommends a number of further structural reforms to improve the prudential oversight of the banking sector, restructure public enterprises and establish a mineral revenue fund; progress in implementing these may be slow.

  ECONOMIC GROWTH: Donor support and foreign investment interest in the mining and oil sectors are expected to remain healthy in 2013-14 (assuming that the 2014 election process does not cause substantial political instability), helping to boost economic growth. Exploration and investment for non-ferrous metals will be a major driver of growth. Oil exploration will also contribute, although the lag between prospecting for viable oilfields and their coming on stream means that overall oil production is expected to continue to decline well into 2013-14. Agricultural output should rebound, assuming normal weather patterns in the region. Fisheries output will also rise, with the total catch expected to grow, although this will probably be at the expense of future hauls. Prices of food, feedstuffs and beverages are forecast to weaken, but those of industrial raw materials will register solid growth after a sharp contraction in 2012. Higher prices will support investor interest, and exploration and output from the non-oil minerals sector will support the medium-term growth outlook. This will hold particularly for non-ferrous metals, such as copper and gold (the average copper price is expected to rise by 11.7% in 2013 and 4% in 2014). Investor interest in uranium mining will also remain strong, while new investment by the national iron producer, Société nationale industrielle et minière, will see new construction and the expansion of its activities over the next five years. A master plan for the electricity sector is being implemented, with the national electricity company being restructured and recapitalised with the support of donors, and increased tariffs for large users are likely to be implemented. Dynamic services such as banking and telecommunications will grow, as companies that were previously deterred from expanding their operations will now have more confidence in the regulatory environment and the government's willingness to honour contracts. Overall, we forecast real GDP growth accelerating from an estimated 5% in 2012 to 5.6% in 2013; it should remain robust, at 5.4%, in 2014. However, there are strong downside risks from the danger of renewed problems in the global economy and threats to the stability of the euro zone. A period of sustained political instability or a larger than expected drop in international commodity prices, due to a major contraction in global demand, would see Mauritania's current growth forecast weaken considerably.

  EXTERNAL ACCOUNT: International prices for Mauritania's exports, dominated by oil and other minerals, are likely to register a mixed performance in 2013-14. Oil prices are forecast to contract by 6.9% in 2013 before registering a slight increase in 2014, although they will remain high by historical standards. Prices of industrial raw materials should register solid growth after a sharp contraction in 2012. Overall, exports should grow steadily, from an estimated US$2.7bn in 2012 to US$3bn in 2014-although Mauritania remains highly vulnerable to developments in Europe, exports to which represent almost one-third of GDP. Demand for imports will also rise, driven in part by increased oil and gas exploration, as well as public investment, and the trade deficit will deepen from an estimated level of US$234m in 2012 to US$274m in 2014. The country's dependence on imported services is expected to remain high over 2013-14, again primarily as a result of increased activity in the extractive sector, meaning that the services account will remain in substantial deficit. In addition, tourism receipts are expected to remain depressed given the ongoing fight against terrorism in the country and the headlines that this generates. Strong aid flows will boost the surplus on the country's current transfers account from an estimated US$306m in 2012 to US$410m in 2014. Overall, the current-account deficit is forecast to narrow from an estimated 19.3% of GDP in 2012 to 9.9% of GDP in 2014. There will be no difficulties in financing the current account, as the capital account will post a large surplus because of foreign investment in the extractive industries.

  October 26, 2012

View detailed map

Country Briefing

Land area

1,030,700 sq km

Population

3.3m (2012 World Gazetteer estimate; 2.5m in December 2000 census result)

Main towns

(Population estimates 2012, World Gazetteer):

 Nouakchott (capital): 870,073

 Kiffa: 91,336

 Nouadhibou: 85,337

Climate

About 80% desert (less than 200 mm rainfall per year); only the southern extremity supports rain-fed vegetation; temperatures average more than 25°C, with wide daily and seasonal fluctuations

Weather in Nouakchott (altitude 21 metres)

Hottest month, September (24-34°C); coldest month, December (13-28°C); irregular rains occur from July to October

Languages

Arabic (official), French, Pular, Soninké, Wolof

Measures

Metric system

Currency

Ouguiya (UM)

Time

GMT

Public holidays

Fixed: January 1st (New Year), May 1st (Labour Day), May 25th (African Unity Day), July 10th (Armed Forces Day), November 28th (Independence Day); all Islamic holidays are observed in accordance with the lunar calendar, which means that the following dates are approximate: Mawlid al-Nabi (the birthday of the Prophet, February 3rd-4th 2012); Eid al-Fitr (end of Ramadan, August 19th); Eid al-Adha (Feast of the Sacrifice, October 25th); Islamic New Year (November 14th)

July 20, 2012