Event
In mid-March King Mohammed VI went on an official visit to Senegal, Côte D'Ivoire and Gabon, in his first extended tour of Sub-Saharan Africa in six years.
Analysis
As expected from his closest allies on the continent, Mohammed VI received strong support from the leadership of Senegal and Côte D'Ivoire for Morocco's autonomy plan for the disputed Western Sahara (which Morocco has occupied since the departure of the colonial power, Spain, in 1975), while the UN secretary's special envoy is currently meeting all of the local parties involved to resume direct talks on the issue. None of the countries that Mohammed VI is visiting on this tour recognise Western Sahara as a sovereign nation.
The political crisis in Mali was also discussed during the trip. Morocco has been quietly pushing for a greater emphasis in Africa on dealing with what it perceives as a growing terrorist threat around the Sahel, which it views as a particularly destabilising issue for Western Sahara.
Moroccan officials also signed a number of economic partnership agreements during the tour, as part of efforts to encourage the expansion of Moroccan businesses in African countries; several Moroccan companies, including banks, airlines and telecommunications operators, have already enjoyed considerable success in recent years in Sub-Saharan Africa.
Two bilateral agreements were signed in Senegal, promoting co-operation on mining and energy and the transportation of goods and persons by land. The two heads of state also inaugurated an ophthalmologic clinic and a production plant for a Moroccan pharmaceutical company. Six bilateral agreements were signed in Côte D'Ivoire on the following topics: co-operation between the countries' foreign ministries; the promotion and protection of investments; fisheries; air transport; vocational training in tourism; and disaster management.
Despite the success enjoyed by its businesses in Sub-Saharan Africa, Morocco-the only African country not also to be a member of the African Union-remains diplomatically isolated on the continent because of the Western Sahara conflict and its rivalry with its militarily stronger neighbour, Algeria.
March 26, 2013
Political outlook: Political forces at a glance
Present government: Under the new constitution which took effect in July 2011, Morocco remains a constitutional monarchy. Despite some modest reforms, power remains highly concentrated in the hands of the king, Mohammed VI. The bicameral parliament has limited power: the king can dissolve it, dismiss the government and rule by decree. The king has a dual role as temporal leader and spiritual guide (amir al-muminin, or commander of the faithful) which grants him an "inviolable" status. The constitution grants the king the right to appoint the head of government (prime minister) from within the winning party, as well as other ministers and secretaries of state (members of government), albeit on the recommendation of the prime minister. The king presides over the cabinet and sets the overall direction of policy through public speeches, in which he variously encourages and berates the government. He appoints the head of the central bank, ambassadors, regional governors (walis) and the heads of key public enterprises, and ratifies treaties. He is the guarantor of the independence of the judiciary under the new constitution and approves the appointment of judges. He is also supreme commander of the armed forces.
Parliamentary forces: With power so heavily concentrated in the hands of the royal court, no political party is particularly dominant. Politicians frequently switch parties for their own gain. The low-threshold proportional representation system tends to result in a large number of parties in parliament, with none having a strong support base, and no one party able to win a majority of the 395 seats in the House of Representatives. The 270-member upper Chamber of Advisers is indirectly elected from various interest groups and can initiate legislation, leading to some duplication of functions with the lower house. This is unlikely to change over the forecast period, as the resulting fragmentation of parliament is ultimately in the monarchy's interest.
Next elections: The next parliamentary election is due in November 2016, five years following the early elections in November 2011.
| Parliamentary election results | ||||
| Seats won | Seats won | |||
| Party | 2007 | 2011 | % of total | Government/opposition |
| Parti Istiqlal (PI—conservative nationalist) | 52 | 60 | 15.2 | Government |
| Parti de la justice et du développement
(PJD—moderate Islamist) | 46 | 107 | 27.1 | Government |
| Mouvement populaire (MP—centre-Berberist) | 41 | 32 | 8.1 | Government |
| Rassemblement national des indépendants (RNI—centrist) | 39 | 52 | 13.2 | Opposition |
| Union socialiste des forces populaires (USFP—socialist) | 38 | 39 | 9.9 | Opposition |
| Union constitutionnelle (UC—liberal conservative) | 27 | 23 | 5.8 | Opposition |
| Parti du progrès et du socialisme (PPS—ex-communist) | 17 | 18 | 4.6 | Government |
| Parti authenticité et
modernité | – | 47 | 11.9 | – |
| Total for ruling
coalition | 146 | 217 | 54.9 | – |
| Total (including ten
others) | 325 | 395 | 100 | – |
| Sources: Maghreb Arab Press; press reports. | ||||
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June 27, 2012
Official name
Kingdom of Morocco
Form of state
Constitutional monarchy
Legal system
Based on French and Islamic law and French legal procedure. A new constitution came into force on July 1st 2011
National legislature
Bicameral system, consisting of a directly elected 395-seat lower House of Representatives and a 270-seat upper Chamber of Advisers indirectly elected by an electoral college
National elections
Last elections: June 2009 (municipal); November 2011 (House of Representatives). Next elections: November 2016 (House of Representatives)
Head of state
King Mohammed VI
Administration
There are 39 provinces and eight urban prefectures; real provincial power is in the hands of governors appointed by the Ministry of the Interior
Executive
The king is required to ask the leader of the largest party in the House of Representatives to form a government and choose a Council of Ministers, which is then approved by the king; a new prime minister was appointed in November 2011. A new coalition cabinet was formed in January 2012
Main political parties
Loyalist: Rassemblement national des indépendants; Union constitutionnelle; Mouvement populaire (MP); Alliance nationale; Parti de l'authenticité et de la modernité. Left and centre-left: Parti de l'Istiqlal; Union socialiste des forces populaires; Parti du progrès et du socialisme (PPS); Gauche socialiste unifiée. Islamist: Parti de la justice et du développement (PJD). The country's largest Islamist movement is the banned al-Adl wal-Ihsane (Justice and Spirituality)
Key ministers
Prime minister: Abdelilah Benkirane (PJD)
Minister of state: Abdellah Baha (PJD)
Secretary-general of the government: Driss Dahak (royal appt)
Agriculture & fisheries: Aziz Akhenouch (independent)
Communication & government spokesperson: Mustapha el-Khalfi (PJD)
Culture: Mohamed Amine Sbihi (PPS)
Defence: Abdellatif Loudiyi (royal appt)
Education & higher education: Mohammed el-Ouafa (Istiqlal)
Endowments & Islamic affairs: Ahmed Toufik (royal appt)
Energy, mines, water & environment: Fouad Douiri (Istiqlal)
Equipment & transport: Aziz Rabbah (PJD)
Finance & economy: Nizar Baraka (Istiqlal)
Foreign affairs & co-operation: Saad-Eddine el-Othmani (PJD)
Health: El Hossein el-Ouardi (PPS)
Industry, trade & new technologies: Abdelkader Aamara (PJD)
Interior: Mohand Laenser (MP)
Justice: Mustafa Ramid (PJD)
Labour: Abdelouahed Souhail (PPS)
Social development, family & women: Bassima Hakkaoui (PJD)
Tourism: Lahcen Haddad (MP)
Youth & sports: Mohammed Ouzzine (MP)
Central bank governor
Abdellatif Jouahri
March 08, 2013
Outlook for 2013-17
Review
March 08, 2013
Fact sheet
| Annual data | 2012 | Historical averages (%) | 2008-12 |
| Population (m) | 32.6 | Population growth | 1.0 |
| GDP (US$ bn; market exchange rate) | 96.7 | Real GDP growth | 4.4 |
| GDP (US$ bn; purchasing power parity) | 171.3 | Real domestic demand growth | 4.6 |
| GDP per head (US$; market exchange rate) | 2,963 | Inflation | 1.6 |
| GDP per head (US$; purchasing power parity) | 5,251 | Current-account balance (% of GDP) | -7.0 |
| Exchange rate (av) Dh:US$ | 8.61 | FDI inflows (% of GDP) | 2.2 |
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Background: Morocco gained its independence from France in 1956, with the restoration of the Alawi monarchy under King Mohammed V. He was succeeded by King Hassan II in 1961, the ruler most responsible for building modern Morocco. His reign was characterised by a combination of skilful foreign policy and ruthless suppression of domestic dissent. The current king, Mohammed VI, came to the throne in July 1999, at the age of 36, on the death of his father, King Hassan II.
Political structure: Morocco is a constitutional monarchy, and the king is the dominant political figure, with a dual role as temporal leader and commander of the faithful (amir al-muminin). The king oversees policy, and heads the armed forces. The king has shown little inclination to give up the constitutional rights that give him real power, but amid regional unrest he has launched constitutional reforms that have seen him relinquish the right to appoint the prime minister-now the leader of the largest party in the House of Representatives, the powers of which are only slightly strengthened in the new constitution, introduced in 2011. The moderate Islamist Parti de la justice et du développement emerged as the largest party in the 2011 election and its leader has formed a coalition government with several secular parties.
Policy issues: On ascending the throne, the king pledged himself to the principles of constitutional monarchy, the rule of law, a multiparty system, respect for human rights and individual liberties, and improved rights for women. Some progress, albeit uneven, has been made towards these goals, and despite the introduction of a new constitution, opposition groups continue to call for further strengthening of political institutions. The main economic policies are designed to generate faster growth, with the goal of reducing high levels of unemployment, poverty and illiteracy, in part to counter the threat of radical Islam. Progress has been constrained by policy inertia and a bureaucratic and corrupt civil service.
Taxation: The country's complicated tax system and high tax rates are major constraints on business. The corporation tax rate was lowered from 35% to 30% in 2008. The fiscal regime relies heavily on direct tax yields. Tax fraud is widespread.
Foreign trade: Morocco has developed its phosphate, manufacturing and agricultural exports, but its competitiveness is hampered by low labour productivity. Morocco is dependent on imported fuel, and food imports can rise sharply in drought years. A structural trade deficit is partly alleviated by substantial tourism earnings and workers remittances.
| Major exports 2011 | % of total | Major imports 2011 | % of total |
| Fertilisers and chemicals | 10.8 | Fuel and lubricants | 25.2 |
| Phosphoric acid | 9.4 | Semi-finished goods | 21.4 |
| Phosphate rock | 7.2 | Capital goods | 19.0 |
| Finished clothes | 10.6 | Consumer goods | 17.2 |
| Leading markets 2011 | % of total | Leading suppliers 2011 | % of total |
| Spain | 18.6 | France | 15.4 |
| France | 16.9 | Spain | 14.4 |
| Brazil | 6.0 | China | 7.7 |
| US | 4.8 | US | 7.3 |
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March 08, 2013
Data and charts: Annual trends charts
March 08, 2013
Morocco: Country outlook
FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT
POLITICAL STABILITY: The political scene is expected to remain broadly stable in 2013-17 under the rule of the king, Mohammed VI. The king is the dominant political figure who also acts as the people's spiritual guide (amir al-muminin, or commander of the faithful). Mohammed VI is believed to be generally well liked, but widespread disaffection with the formal political process will continue to rumble on. The pressure to boost economic growth and employment will make for a challenging political environment. Popular protests are likely to continue, but will stop short of calling for the king's overthrow.
ELECTION WATCH: The next election for the House of Representatives (the lower house of parliament) will be in 2016. Local elections may be held in 2013, but these have not yet been officially confirmed. The new constitution includes clauses intended to curb the frequent party defections by members of parliament seen in Morocco, which may help to give some political parties greater stability and credibility. Morocco's complex version of proportional representation tends to result in a fragmented elected chamber, with 18 parties represented in the 395-member lower house. The new constitution should give the prime minister more influence over the ruling coalition, but the Parti de la justice et du développement (PJD)--which controls only 107 of the lower-house seats--may still find it difficult to maintain a majority coalition with traditional secular parties while also satisfying its more religiously conservative voting base.
INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS: Morocco's relations with neighbouring Algeria will remain difficult, largely because of the dispute over Western Sahara, which Algeria would like to see become independent. Morocco is committed to its plan for limited autonomy for the territory, but the Sahrawi national liberation movement, the Polisario Front (PF), which is backed by Algeria, demands a referendum on self-determination. At the end of 2012, the UN secretary-general's personal envoy for Western Sahara, Christopher Ross, announced a return to shuttle diplomacy between the Moroccan government and the PF. Nine rounds of face-to-face negotiations since August 2009 have not produced results, and the deadlock appears likely to continue.
POLICY TRENDS: The government will place strong emphasis on its efforts to deal with social and economic exclusion--in line with the campaign promises made by the PJD in the run-up to the 2011 election. It will maintain high social spending on slum clearance, rural infrastructure, education and health. Given limited resources, an inefficient bureaucracy and widespread nepotism and corruption, addressing the country's infrastructure shortcomings will prove difficult, despite recent promises of financial support from the Gulf countries. Poverty remains a pressing concern, and the government is committed to increasing employment and bringing jobs into the formal economy, although it will have limited success. As part of its Vision 2020 plan the government will seek to attract foreign direct investment into the priority sectors of textiles, electronic components, offshore services and tourism (a highly labour-intensive sector).
ECONOMIC GROWTH: The Economist Intelligence Unit expects real GDP growth in Morocco to pick up to 3.3% in 2013, helped by an improved agricultural performance after poor weather disrupted harvests in 2012 and dragged growth down to an estimated 2.9%. However, the pace of economic growth will continue to be restricted by the weak outlook in the euro zone, which we expect to suffer a second successive year of recession in 2013. Morocco is heavily anchored in economic terms to Europe, and this will limit tourism revenue and migrant transfers. As global economic conditions subsequently improve, growth will then accelerate to an annual average of 4.8% in 2014-17. Despite government strategies to diversify the economy, and notwithstanding the increasingly large contribution made by the services sector, GDP will remain vulnerable to shifts in agricultural production, with almost 40% of Moroccans still employed in the sector.
INFLATION: We expect inflation to remain relatively subdued in 2013-17, averaging 2.7% a year, as government subsidies on energy and food continue to keep prices artificially low, especially in the near term. However, the subsidy system is placing a heavy burden on the public finances and requires reform. Given the politically sensitive nature of subsidies, reform is likely to unfold only slowly, but our forecast profile for inflation (a gradually rising trajectory) takes into account the likelihood of official moves aimed at reducing the heavy fiscal costs. In addition, low historical inflation in Morocco has stemmed not only from the managed exchange rate, but also from deficiencies in the way that the rate is calculated. The underlying cost of living may have increased more rapidly in recent years than official data suggest.
EXCHANGE RATES: The exchange-rate regime is a tightly managed float against a euro-dominated basket of currencies. Despite opposition from exporters, Bank al-Maghrib (the central bank) argues that this system has been useful in anchoring the economy and keeping inflation low. Morocco will seek to retain a competitive trade position with the EU. We therefore expect the Moroccan dirham to weaken until 2015, after which it will strengthen against the US currency. Reform of the system is unlikely until later in the forecast period given the volatile regional and international financial climate. Although the authorities will try to keep the dirham competitive in order to help Moroccan exporters, they will not want the currency to weaken too much, given the upward impact on import prices.
EXTERNAL SECTOR: The current account will remain in deficit as energy prices stay high and export revenue growth is curbed by weak EU demand, especially in 2013. However, the pace of global economic expansion will pick up from 2014 onwards, supporting export growth. Export earnings from phosphates, which stagnated in 2012 owing to a plunge in global prices, will grow as large markets, such as Brazil, India and the US, become an increasing focus for sales of phosphates and related products. Export growth will also be supported by two projects launched in 2012: the Renault car plant, which is expected to export 90% of production; and a new hydrocarbons terminal at the Tanger Med port, which will supply bunkering oil to foreign vessels. Morocco will attempt to reduce its oil dependency by investing in renewable energy, but with limited success initially. The trade and income deficits will be partly offset by surpluses in services and current transfers. Services, particularly tourism--which relies heavily on European demand--and current transfers inflows will perform sluggishly in the near term, owing to EU weakness, but will strengthen later in the forecast period. After reaching an estimated 9.7% of GDP in 2012, the current-account deficit is forecast to narrow over the forecast period, to 5.2% of GDP in 2017.
March 11, 2013
Country forecast overview: Highlights
March 08, 2013
Land area
710,850 sq km (including the disputed territory of Western Sahara, which covers 252,120 sq km)
Population
31,990,000 (mid-2009 IMF estimate)
Main towns
Population in '000 (mid-2004 census)
Casablanca: 2,950
Rabat (capital) & Salé: 1,398
Fès: 954
Marrakesh: 844
Tangier: 704
Kénitra: 573
Climate
Warm on the coast, hot inland
Weather in Rabat (altitude 65 metres)
Hottest month, August, 18-28°C (average daily minimum and maximum); coldest month, January, 8-17°C; driest month, July, 1 mm average rainfall; wettest month, December, 86 mm average rainfall
Languages
Arabic (official); Berber languages; French and Spanish are also used
Measures
Metric system. Some local measures are also used
Currency
Dirham (Dh) = 100 centimes
Time
GMT
Fiscal year
January 1st-December 31st
Public holidays
The dates of Islamic holidays are based on the lunar calendar and therefore are approximate. New Year (January 1st); Manifesto of Independence (January 11th); Mawlid al-Nabi (the birthday of the Prophet, February 4-5th 2012); Labour Day (May 1st); Throne Day (July 30th); Allegiance Day (August 14th); Eid al-Fitr (end of Ramadan, August 19th 2011); King & People's Revolution Day (August 20th); King Mohammed's Birthday (August 21st); Eid al-Adha (Feast of the Sacrifice, October 26-27th 2012); Green March Anniversary (November 6th); Islamic New Year (November 15th 2012); Independence Day (November 18th)
January 07, 2013