Cambodia

Politics:

• Analysis

  Cambodia politics: Quick View - Independent audit points to electoral flaws

  Event

  An audit by pro-democracy organisations has found a number of problems with Cambodia's voter-registration list, suggesting that the upcoming general election in July may not be fair. The report by the Neutral and Impartial Committee for Free and Fair Elections in Cambodia (NICFEC) and the US-based National Democratic Institute (NDI) was based on a random sampling and analysis of registered voters.

  Analysis

  The NICFEC-NDI audit found that around 10% of names on the list do not correspond to real people. Conversely, around 11% of people who thought they were registered to vote were not on the list. The personal information for a large proportion of voters contained errors. More than one-third (36%) were listed as living in the wrong location; in another 37% of cases, the birth date of the voter was wrong.

  These findings suggest that the upcoming election will be even less fair than the previous general election, held in 2008. In the 2008 voter registry, fewer than 8% of names failed to match existing people. According to NDI, the rising prevalence of mistakes in the voter registry raises concerns, because polling stations have a great deal of leeway in deciding whether to allow people to vote, despite mistakes in their voter-registration record. This puts polling officials in a position of being able to influence the election results by choosing which votes to count and which to discard.

  The government's National Election Committee (NEC) has dismissed the findings of the study as inaccurate. According to a report in the Cambodia Daily newspaper, the NEC has pledged to follow up if supplied with a list of eligible voters who have been left off the registry. This is unlikely to lead to significant improvement ahead of the elections, given that the NEC is dominated by figures loyal to the ruling Cambodian People's Party (CPP).

  March 28, 2013

• Background

  Cambodia: Key figures

  Hun Sen

  Hun Sen, the prime minister and vice-chairman of the Cambodian People's Party (CPP), maintains a firm grip on power. He has headed the government for the past decade, since he launched a coup in July 1997 to bring to an end the power-sharing government with Prince Norodom Ranariddh, who headed the National United Front for an Independent, Neutral, Peaceful and Co-operative Cambodia (FUNCINPEC). Hun Sen defected from the Khmer Rouge before establishing the CPP in the late 1970s.

  Sam Rainsy

  As leader of, and dominant figure within, the eponymous opposition party, Sam Rainsy remains a leading critic of Hun Sen and his government. He was a former FUNCINPEC minister of finance and economy, before moving to form his own party.

  Prince Norodom Ranariddh

  Prince Ranariddh has seen his power base deteriorate over the past decade, since he was ousted from his position as “first prime minister” in the power-sharing government with Hun Sen in 1997. After being ousted as FUNCINPEC leader, in late 2006 Prince Ranariddh established his own party, the Norodom Ranariddh Party, in an effort to revive his political career, but his future role in politics is highly uncertain.

  King Norodom Sihamoni

  King Sihamoni acceded to the throne in October 2004, following his father's abdication. There were initial concerns expressed in some quarters about King Sihamoni's character and suitability, particularly concerning his ability to stand up to the country's powerful politicians. However, he has adapted well to his position as monarch, and has kept his pledge to maintain a neutral political stance.

  Chea Sim

  The chairman of the CPP plays the role of an elder statesman. He was formerly chairman of the National Assembly (the lower house of parliament) and is now president of the Senate (the upper house).

  Heng Samrin

  The CPP's honorary chairman became chairman of the National Assembly in March 2006.

  May 01, 2008

• Structure

  Cambodia: Political structure

  Official name

  Cambodia

  Form of government

  Constitutional monarchy

  The executive

  The cabinet is constitutionally responsible to the National Assembly (the lower house of parliament)

  Head of state

  King Norodom Sihamoni. The Throne Council selects the king

  National legislature

  The 123-seat National Assembly sits for a term of five years. The term of the 61-member Senate (the upper house) is six years

  National elections

  The most recent National Assembly election was held in July 2008. The most recent (indirect) election to the Senate took place in January 2012. The next lower house election will take place in July 2013. The next upper house election will be held in 2018

  National government

  Following the 2008 election, the Cambodian People's Party (CPP), which secured 90 seats in the lower house, formed a government, with the National United Front for an Independent, Neutral, Peaceful and Co-operative Cambodia (FUNCINPEC) as its junior partner

  Main political organisations and groups

  CPP; FUNCINPEC; Cambodia Democratic Movement for National Rescue (CDMNR, formed through a merger of the Sam Rainsy Party and the Human Rights Party); the Nationalist Party (NP, formerly the Norodom Ranariddh Party)

  Main government ministers

  Prime minister: Hun Sen (CPP)

  Deputy prime ministers:

   Sar Kheng (CPP)

   Hor Nam Hong (CPP)

   Bin Chhin (CPP)

   Sok An (CPP)

   Tea Banh (CPP)

   Nhiek Bun Chhay (FUNCINPEC)

   Men Sam An (CPP)

   Keat Chhon (CPP)

   Yim Chhay Ly (CPP)

  Key ministers

  Agriculture, forestry & fisheries: Chan Sarun (CPP)

  Commerce: Cham Prasidh (CPP)

  Economy & finance: Keat Chhon (CPP)

  Foreign affairs: Hor Nam Hong (CPP)

  Health: Mam Bunheng (CPP)

  Industry, energy & mines: Suy Sem (CPP)

  Information: Khieu Kanharith (CPP)

  Interior: Sar Kheng (CPP)

  Justice: Ang Vong Vattana (CPP)

  National defence: Tea Banh (CPP)

  Rural development: Chea Sophara (CPP)

  Tourism: Thong Khon (CPP)

  Central bank governor

  Chea Chanto

  March 12, 2013

• Outlook

  Cambodia: Key developments

  Outlook for 2013-17

  • The prime minister, Hun Sen, and the ruling Cambodian People's Party (CPP) will continue to dominate the political scene in the forecast period. The CPP controls over two-thirds of the seats in the lower house of parliament.
  • The apparatus of state will continue to be used against the government's opponents, such as the opposition leader, Sam Rainsy, who remains in self-imposed exile after being sentenced in absentia to a total of 11 years in prison.
  • Real GDP growth is estimated to have slowed to 5.8% in 2012, but will pick up to 6.4% in 2013 and 7% in 2014. Economic expansion will then average 7.1% a year in the remainder of the forecast period.
  • The National Bank of Cambodia (the central bank) will seek to restrain growth in the money supply. However, the effectiveness of policy will continue to be hampered by the fact that the economy is highly dollarised.
  • The annual inflation rate will accelerate to an average of 4.8% in 2013-17, from an estimated 3% in 2012, in line with stronger domestic demand.
  • The current-account deficit will remain substantial as a proportion of GDP in the forecast period, but continued foreign direct investment and healthy international reserves will limit the risk of financing difficulties

  Review

  • In early February the government publicised instructions to media outlets that in effect prevent lawyers from making statements on radio or television that have not been approved by the government-controlled bar association.
  • In a move ostensibly aimed at resolving land disputes, the government has announced that it will return some 250,000 ha of land to "poor people".
  • The opening of a new, Chinese-built port extension near the capital, Phnom Penh, has improved Cambodia's merchandise export infrastructure.
  • On February 15th parliament took the controversial step of issuing a guarantee, worth some US$780m, for the earnings of the foreign-invested Lower Sesan 2 hydropower dam.
  • Government data show that tourist arrivals grew by nearly 25% in 2012, with tourism revenue reaching about US$2.2bn.
  • Official figures reported in mid-February show that credit growth soared by 34% in 2012, far outpacing deposit growth and raising concerns about banking sector stability.
  • Cambodia's trade with neighbouring Vietnam rose by 17%, to US$3.3bn, in 2012, according to Vietnamese data released in late February.

  March 12, 2013

Economy:

• Background

  Cambodia: Economic background

  Real gross domestic product by sector
  (% share of GDP)
  	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007
  Agriculture	32.0	29.5	30.8	30.1	28.8
  Industry	25.0	25.8	25.1	26.2	26.5
  Services	38.1	39.3	38.9	38.6	39.5
  Source: National Institute of Statistics; Economist Intelligence Unit.

  Download text file (csv format)

  May 01, 2008

• Structure

  Cambodia: Economic structure

  Data and charts: Annual trends charts

  
  

  

  March 12, 2013

• Outlook

  Cambodia: Country outlook

  Cambodia: Country outlook

  FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT

  POLITICAL STABILITY: The Cambodian People's Party (CPP) will remain the country's dominant political force in the forecast period. The 1993 constitution established elections to the National Assembly (the lower house of parliament) based on universal suffrage, but polls have become increasingly one-sided. In the 2008 lower house election the CPP tightened its grip on power, winning 90 of the 123 seats in the chamber. The party secured 46 of the 57 indirectly elected seats in the poll for the Senate (the upper house) in January 2012. It then won control of 1,592 of the country's 1,633 commune councils at local elections held in June. The CPP's election victories, coupled with the authoritarian tendencies of the prime minister, Hun Sen, and the government's harsh treatment of its opponents, have increased concerns that Cambodia is becoming a de facto one-party state with few checks on executive power.

  ELECTION WATCH: The result of the lower house election in July 2013 is a foregone conclusion, with Hun Sen's CPP expected to achieve another victory and the ruling party likely to attain the two-thirds majority required to enable it to alter the constitution. In July 2012 the main opposition Sam Rainsy Party (SRP) and another opposition group, the Human Rights Party (HRP), announced their formal merger to create the Cambodia Democratic Movement for National Rescue (CDMNR). The CDMNR looks unlikely to be able to defeat the CPP, but the merger may help the opposition to increase its parliamentary representation. The SRP and the HRP won a combined 29 seats in 2008, representing a modest improvement on their performance in the 2003 election. But their gains came at the expense of the two royalist parties, the National United Front for an Independent, Neutral, Peaceful and Co-operative Cambodia and the Norodom Ranariddh Party, rather than reducing the CPP's tally of seats.

  INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS: Rivalry between China and the US for influence in Cambodia is set to intensify in 2013-17. China has become an important partner for Hun Sen's government, mainly owing to its financing of major infrastructure projects. In contrast to US assistance, which is typically conditional on greater respect for human rights, China's assistance has come without such strings attached. China's influence was highlighted in July 2012, when Cambodian officials in effect ended a summit meeting of the Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN) rather than being willing to allow a joint ASEAN position to be reached on disputed maritime claims between China and several ASEAN countries in the South China Sea.

  POLICY TRENDS: Fiscal policy will remain broadly expansionary. According to the budget for 2013, state spending will increase by around 15% this year, to US$3bn. The National Bank of Cambodia (NBC, the central bank) will seek to restrain growth in the money supply, but the extensive dollarisation of the economy will hamper the effectiveness of monetary policy. The 2009 global recession exposed Cambodia's structural economic vulnerabilities, and in particular its dependence on garment exports. The government has reacted by seeking to develop other sources of economic growth. As part of their plan to turn Cambodia into a major rice exporter, the authorities have set a target of exporting 1m tonnes of milled rice per year by 2015. At present Cambodia mainly exports raw paddy rice to neighbouring countries for processing. Drought hit rice production and exports in 2012.

  ECONOMIC GROWTH: The Economist Intelligence Unit estimates real GDP growth in 2012 at 5.8%, well below the annual expansion rates of around 10% recorded in the years preceding the 2008­09 global financial crisis. In recent years economic growth has been supported by strong export-led manufacturing activity (particularly of garments and textiles), although severe floods disrupted the economy in late 2011. The US and the EU together absorbed almost 70% of Cambodia's merchandise exports in 2011, according to the latest figures from the IMF. Since 2011 Cambodia's exports to the EU have expanded rapidly owing to changes to the Everything But Arms agreement, which gives the world's least developed countries duty- and quota-free access to the European bloc. Trade with the EU is also diversifying, with Cambodia unexpectedly emerging as a top exporter of bicycles to Europe in 2012, for example.

  INFLATION: Annual consumer price inflation fell sharply in 2012, slowing from 5.8% in January to 1.6% in November, owing to weaker food price inflation and a decline in transport costs. As a result, we estimate that inflation slowed to an average of 3% in 2012, from 5.5% in 2011. Global oil prices (dated Brent Blend) are likely to remain stable on an annual average basis in the next five years, at US$100-115/barrel, and this should help to contain inflationary pressures in Cambodia. Prices for many non-oil commodities, notably grains, are expected to stabilise on average in 2013-17. This, too, should contribute to keeping inflation in check, although inclement weather in the US and Brazil has increased the risk of a renewed surge in prices for many food commodities in the coming quarters. In the forecast period we expect Cambodia's annual rate of inflation to accelerate to 4.8% on average, as upward price pressures will increase in line with stronger domestic demand.

  EXCHANGE RATES: The NBC has accumulated substantial foreign-exchange reserves in recent years, and it will intervene periodically to support the riel. Although the relatively wide deficit on the current account exerts downward pressure on the riel's value, the local currency will be supported in the forecast period by inflows of foreign assistance and foreign direct investment, and it will therefore appreciate modestly in 2013-17. However, given the continuing lack of confidence in the riel, the US dollar will remain the currency of choice in Cambodia for trade and investment.

  EXTERNAL SECTOR: The merchandise trade deficit will remain substantial in 2013-17, owing to Cambodia's reliance on imported capital goods. After expanding modestly in 2012, merchandise exports and imports are likely to pick up momentum in the second half of 2013 as demand from the US recovers. From 2014 healthier global economic conditions will also support international trade. There will be a rise in demand for imported trade-related services, such as insurance and freight, but the services account will remain in surplus thanks to rising tourism revenue. The income deficit will widen slightly in the forecast period, as the repatriation of profits and dividends by foreign-invested companies will more than offset the increase in returns on Cambodia's foreign-exchange reserves that will result from a rise in global interest rates from 2015. The current-account deficit is expected to narrow in the forecast period, to stand at the equivalent of 5% of GDP in 2017, compared with an estimated 10.5% in 2012.

  March 05, 2013

• Forecast

  Cambodia: 5-year forecast summary

  Outlook for 2013-17: Forecast summary

  Forecast summary
  (% unless otherwise indicated)
  	2012a	2013b	2014b	2015b	2016b	2017b
  Real GDP growth	5.8	6.4	7.0	6.9	7.2	7.3
  Gross agricultural production growth	6.0	5.5	5.8	6.0	6.2	6.2
  Consumer price inflation (av)	3.0	4.1	4.5	5.1	4.9	5.5
  Base lending rate	13.0	14.3	15.3	16.2	16.3	16.4
  Central government balance (% of GDP)	-3.0	-3.0	-2.8	-2.4	-2.2	-1.9
  Exports of goods fob (US$ bn)	6.1	6.5	7.3	8.6	9.9	10.8
  Imports of goods fob (US$ bn)	-8.8	-9.3	-10.4	-11.5	-12.9	-14.2
  Current-account balance (US$ bn)	-1.5	-1.5	-1.5	-1.2	-1.2	-1.5
  Current-account balance (% of GDP)	-10.5	-9.2	-8.1	-5.4	-4.6	-5.0
  Exchange rate CR:US$ (av)	4,035	4,008	3,980	3,958	3,918	3,876
  Exchange rate CR:US$ (end-period)	3,995	4,003	3,967	3,940	3,896	3,854
  Exchange rate CR:¥100 (av)	5,043	4,322	4,211	4,113	4,019	4,016
  Exchange rate CR:€ (end-period)	5,248	5,284	5,177	4,944	4,912	4,853
  a The Economist Intelligence Unit estimates. b The Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts.

  Download the numbers in Excel

  Download text file (csv format)

  March 12, 2013

View detailed map

Country Briefing

Land area

181,035 sq km

Population

14.3m (mid-2011; IMF estimate)

Main towns

Population in '000 (2008 census)

Phnom Penh (capital): 1,325.7

Battambang: 1,024.7

Climate

Tropical; rainy season, May-October; dry season, November-April

Weather in Phnom Penh (39 ft above sea level)

Hottest months, March-April, average daily temperature 27°C (daily maximum 32-40°C); coldest month, January, average daily temperature 25°C; wettest month, October, 256 mm average rainfall; driest month, January, 8 mm average rainfall

Language

Khmer

Measures

Metric system. Local measures include:

1 tao = 15 kg

1 thang = 40 litres (20-22 kg paddy)

1 hap = 60 kg

1 king (or ray) = 0.16 ha

1 chi = 3.75 g

1 damloeng = 37.5 g

Currency

Riel (CR). Average exchange rate in 2011: CR4,059:US$1

Fiscal year

January 1st-December 31st

Time

7 hours ahead of GMT

Public holidays

January 1st (International New Year's Day); January 7th (Liberation Day); February 25th (Meakkha Bochea); March 8th (International Women's Day); April 14th-16th (Cambodia New Year); May 1st (Labour Day); May 24h (Visak Bochea); May 9th (Royal Ploughing Ceremony); May 13th-15th (King Norodom Sihamoni's birthday); May 28th (Royal Plowing Ceremony); Children's Day (June 1st); June 18th (king's mother's birthday); September 24th (Constitution Day); October 3-5th (Pchum Ben); October 29th (King's Coronation Day); October 15th (king's father's birthday); November 9th (Independence Day); November 16-18th (Water Festival); December 10th (International Human Rights Day)

January 01, 2013