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Japan

Politics:

  • Analysis

    Japan politics: Quick View - Post-election political environment will be vo

    Event

    The December 16th general election devastated the support base of the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ).

    Analysis

    The two-party landscape of Japanese politics traditionally divided between the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the DPJ has changed overnight into something more lopsided and potentially more unstable. After the formal transition of power set to occur on December 26th, the LDP and its coalition partner, the New Komeito party, will form a new conservative government based on their combined 325-seat majority in the 480-member House of Representatives (the lower house), while the DPJ and the newly formed Japan Restoration Party (JRP) will jockey for second place.

    On December 26th the DPJ will pick a new party leader to succeed the outgoing prime minister, Yoshihiko Noda. However, it looks doubtful that whoever takes over will be able quickly to repair the DPJ's badly damaged brand as a centre-left alternative to the LDP's right-wing platform ahead of the crucial election for one-half of the seats in the House of Councillors (the upper house), which must be held by end-July 2013.

    The JRP, led by the previous governor of Tokyo, Shintaro Ishihara, and the current mayor of Osaka, Toru Hashimoto, meanwhile appears to be undecided about how to deal with a resurgent LDP. Mr Hashimoto is in favour of backing the LDP leader, Shinzo Abe, as the next prime minister, while Mr Ishihara wanted to be the JRP's nominee. Nevertheless, the LDP's super majority is forcing the far-right nationalist party to change its pre-election strategy of playing kingmaker between the LDP and the DPJ.

    The third-force phenomenon in this election was largely owing to the JRP's success in winning over swing voters. The early momentum of the Japan Future Party-backed by a former DPJ kingmaker, Ichiro Ozawa, and other breakaway DPJ members-failed to be sustained. The newly formed anti-nuclear party, comprising 62 legislators who had previously won their seats under different party banners, secured just nine seats in the election. The drastic reduction highlights the demise of Mr Ozawa's influence, another symbol of the changing landscape of Japanese politics.

    December 19, 2012

  • Background

    Japan: Key figures

    Yukio Hatoyama

    Like many other leading Japanese politicians, Mr Hatoyama comes from a family with strong links to government: he is the grandson of a past prime minister, Ichiro Hatoyama, as well as being the son of a former foreign minister, Iichiro Hatoyama. Following the fall of his predecessor, Ichiro Ozawa, over a fundraising scandal, he was elected to lead the main opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) in May 2009, thus returning to a post that he had previously held between 1999 and 2002. He then led the DPJ to a historic victory over the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in the House of Representatives (the lower house of parliament) on August 30th 2009. Mr Hatoyama became prime minister in mid-September 2009 with high expectations, but since then his lacklustre leadership and tensions with Mr Ozawa have caused his public approval ratings to sink. If the DPJ performs poorly in the election to the House of Councillors (the upper house) in July 2010, or if public support for the ruling party continues to evaporate in the run-up to the polls, he may be forced to resign.

    Ichiro Ozawa

    Mr Ozawa had a major role in Japanese politics in the 1990s, playing a central part in triggering the brief fall from power of the LDP in 1993-94. He became the leader of the DPJ in early 2006, and led the party to victory in the 2007 upper house election. His sinking popularity amid a series of scandals relating to fundraising forced him to resign in May 2009, setting the stage for Mr Hatoyama to replace him as party head and to become the first DPJ prime minister. However, Mr Ozawa has continued to play an important role in party strategy, and his tactical skills were instrumental in securing the DPJ's victory in the lower house election in August 2009. He commands the largest faction within the DPJ, and this has made him more powerful in practice than the prime minister. Although still tainted by scandal, Mr Ozawa is likely to outlast Mr Hatoyama and may have a decisive say in choosing his successor as party leader.

    Naoto Kan

    Closer to Mr Ozawa than the prime minister, Mr Kan currently holds three cabinet posts—those of deputy prime minister, finance minister, and minister of economic and fiscal policy. He first rose to national prominence as health minister in an LDP government in the mid-1990s by exposing a scandal relating to HIV-contaminated blood that bureaucrats in his ministry had tried to cover up. As leader of the DPJ from 2002 to 2004, he helped to make the party a credible force in opposition to the LDP administration led by the enormously popular Junichiro Koizumi. In the lead-up to the 2003 general election, Mr Kan engineered a merger between his DPJ and Mr Ozawa's Liberal Party. He is one of the prime candidates to become the next prime minister if Mr Hatoyama steps down.

    Seiji Maehara

    Mr Maehara is currently minister of land, infrastructure, transport and tourism, a key portfolio in terms of its power to dole out public spending. As a youthful leader in his mid-40s, he led the DPJ from September 2005 to March 2006. However, he struggled to assert his authority over the party, reflecting both the DPJ's internal ideological divisions and his own inexperience. But he remains a major figure on the party's right wing, which advocates the revision of Article 9 of Japan's constitution (the article renounces permanently “the threat or use of force as a means of settling international disputes”). He is seen as one of the younger prime ministerial candidates who are waiting in line to succeed Mr Hatoyama.

    Sadakazu Tanigaki

    Mr Tanigaki is president of the LDP. He took over the leadership position after the party's drubbing by the DPJ in the 2009 general election. He has held a string of senior cabinet positions, including that of finance minister in Mr Koizumi's administration. Mr Tanigaki leads a small faction of the LDP, and has struggled to hold the party together as a number of senior figures have bolted to found their own parties.

    May 14, 2010

  • Structure

    Japan: Political structure

    Official name

    Japan

    Form of government

    Representative democracy

    The executive

    The prime minister is chosen by a ballot of the Diet (parliament) and appoints a cabinet, the majority of whose members must also be members of parliament

    Head of state

    Emperor Akihito

    National legislature

    Bicameral Diet, comprising the 480-member House of Representatives (the lower house), which is elected every four years, and the 242-member House of Councillors (the upper house), one-half of whose members are elected every three years for six-year terms. There are 300 seats representing geographical constituencies and 180 seats filled by proportional representation in the lower house

    Legal system

    A Supreme Court, appointed by the cabinet, presides over a legal system of lesser courts divided into four arms: the High Court, district courts, family courts and summary courts

    National elections

    The next election for the lower house is expected to be held on December 16th. The next poll for the upper house is due in July 2013

    National government

    The ruling Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) holds 243 seats in the lower house, and its coalition partner, the People's New Party (PNP), has three seats. The main opposition Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) holds 119 seats

    Main political organisations

    Government: coalition of the DPJ and the PNP

    Opposition: LDP; People's Life First; New Komeito; Japan Communist Party; Japan Restoration Party; Your Party; Social Democratic Party

    Main members of the cabinet

    Prime minister: Yoshihiko Noda

    Deputy prime minister: Katsuya Okada

    Chief cabinet secretary: Osamu Fujimura

    Key ministers

    Agriculture, forestry & fisheries: Akira Gunji

    Defence: Satoshi Morimoto

    Economy, trade & industry: Yukio Edano

    Education, culture, sports, science & technology: Makiko Tanaka

    Environment: Hiroyuki Nagahama

    Finance: Koriki Jojima

    Foreign affairs: Koichiro Gemba

    Health, labour & welfare: Wakio Mitsui

    Internal affairs & communications: Shinji Tarutoko

    Justice: Makoto Taki

    Land, infrastructure & transport: Yuichiro Hata

    Reconstruction: Tatsuo Hirano

    State ministers

    Disaster management; postal reform: Mikio Shimoji

    Economic & fiscal policy: Seiji Maehara

    Financial services; gender equality: Ikko Nakatsuka

    Public safety; consumer affairs: Tadamasa Kodaira

    Central bank governor

    Masaaki Shirakawa

    December 01, 2012

  • Outlook

    Japan: Key developments

    Outlook for 2013-17

    • The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is likely to emerge as the largest party after the general election, which is expected to be held on December 16th. It is hoping to do well enough to rule solely with its ally, the New Komeito party.
    • The ruling Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) will be punished by voters at the poll, but it will still play a vital role in the new parliament, given that no party has a majority in the House of Councillors (the upper house).
    • Elections for one-half of the seats in the upper house are due by the end of July 2013, presenting the DPJ with an opportunity to redeem itself, especially if an LDP government were to be judged a failure.
    • Higher consumption taxes will help to narrow the budget deficit to the equivalent of 7.6% of GDP by 2017, from an estimated 9.7% in 2012, by which time government debt is forecast to exceed a staggering 250% of GDP.
    • Monetary policy is likely to face a major shake-up if the LDP forms the next administration: the party wants the Bank of Japan (BOJ, the central bank) to raise its inflation target from 1% to 2% and to pursue "unlimited easing".
    • Real GDP is forecast to grow by only 1% a year on average in the forecast period, reflecting unfavourable demographic trends, the disorderly public finances and persistent deflationary pressures.
    • Consumer prices will fall by an annual average of 0.4% in 2013, but inflation will return in the remainder of the forecast period, as the consumption tax rate increases in 2014-15 and the yen weakens gradually in 2013-16.

    Review

    • The prime minister, Yoshihiko Noda, managed to surprise his political rivals with the sudden dissolution of the House of Representatives (the lower house) on November 16th and a general election to follow a month later.
    • By far the biggest beneficiaries of the electorate's disillusionment with the two main political parties are the many small parties that have sprung up with a common desire to revitalise Japan.
    • At its policy meeting on November 19th-20th, the BOJ made no changes to either interest rates or its quantitative easing programme.
    • Real GDP shrank by 0.9% quarter on quarter in July-September, reflecting contractions in private consumption, investment and exports. In addition, growth in the second quarter was revised down to 0.1%, from 0.2% previously.
    • The merchandise trade account posted its fourth consecutive monthly deficit in October. In value terms, merchandise exports fell by 6.5% year on year in the month, with sharp declines to the EU (of 20.1%) and China (11.6%).

    December 01, 2012

Economy:

  • Background

    Japan: Country fact sheet

    Fact sheet

    Annual data2011aHistorical averages (%)2007-11
    Population (m)126.5Population growth-0.2
    GDP (US$ bn; market exchange rate)5,869bReal GDP growth-0.2
    GDP (US$ bn; purchasing power parity)4,377Real domestic demand growth-0.2
    GDP per head (US$; market exchange rate)46,402Inflation-0.2
    GDP per head (US$; purchasing power parity)34,609Current-account balance (% of GDP)4.9
    Exchange rate (av) ¥:US$79.8bFDI inflows (% of GDP)0.5
    a Economist Intelligence Unit estimates. b Actual.

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    Background: Japan's post-war growth model achieved stunning results in the 1950s and 1960s, followed by a period of consolidation and maturation in the 1970s and 1980s. But Japan's economic miracle turned sour in the late 1980s when a huge asset price bubble burst, leading to Japan's "lost decade" of financial distress and economic stagnation in the 1990s. Japan's population is now shrinking and the economy has found it hard to shake off persistent deflationary pressures, while the government's fiscal position continues to deteriorate at an alarming rate.

    Political structure: Legislative and executive powers are vested in the Diet (parliament), which is composed of the House of Councillors (the upper house) and the more powerful House of Representatives (the lower house). The Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) won a resounding victory in the 2009 general election, ending 54 years of almost uninterrupted rule by the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), but it faces major electoral losses in the general election due in December.

    Policy issues: Gross public debt is estimated to have reached over 220% of nominal GDP in 2012, by far the highest ratio in the developed world. Emergency relief and reconstruction spending in the aftermath of the March 2011 earthquake and tsunami has derailed the government's fiscal consolidation plan. The increase in the consumption tax rate in 2014 and 2015 is an important part of the necessary process of fiscal retrenchment. Policymakers will have to continue down the path of fiscal reform to avoid a sovereign payments crisis.

    Taxation: The standard national corporate tax rate is 35%. Including local taxes, the effective standard corporate tax rate is 40.9%. The top effective personal income tax rate, including local taxes, is 50%. The consumption tax rate currently stands at 5%, but it is set to rise to 8% in April 2014 and then to 10% in October 2015.

    Foreign trade: Japan's merchandise trade deficit (on a fob-fob, balance-of-payments basis) stood at US$20.6bn in 2011, with exports of US$787bn and imports of US$807.6bn. The current account recorded a surplus of US$119.1bn, equivalent to 2% of GDP, in that year.

    Main exports 2011% of totalMain imports 2011% of total
    Transport equipment21.4Mineral fuels32.0
    Non-electrical machinery21.1Electrical machinery11.7
    Electrical machinery17.7Chemicals9.0
    Manufactured goods13.4Manufactured goods8.9
     
    Leading markets 2011% of totalLeading suppliers 2011% of total
    China19.6China21.5
    US15.0EU9.4
    EU11.6US8.9
    South Korea7.7Australia6.6

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    December 03, 2012

  • Structure

    Japan: Economic structure

    Data and charts: Annual trends charts


    December 01, 2012

  • Outlook

    Japan: Country outlook

    Japan: Country outlook

    FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT

    POLITICAL STABILITY: Speculation over the timing of the next general election has been rife since August, when the prime minister, Yoshihiko Noda of the ruling Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), agreed to hold one "soon" in return for opposition support to increase the consumption tax rate. Nevertheless, Mr Noda still managed to surprise his political rivals with the sudden dissolution of the House of Representatives (the lower house of parliament) on November 16th and the announcement of a general election to follow by December 16th. The prime minister's pre-emptive strike has crushed any attempt within the DPJ to replace him before the next poll, secured approval of a vital deficit-financing bond bill and significantly curtailed the time during which the plethora of new political parties will have to organise themselves. But Mr Noda's shrewd move does not fundamentally change the parlous position of his party following the plunge in its popularity as a result of several controversial policy decisions, including plans to double the consumption tax rate and moves to restart Japan's nuclear power plants. A limited rally for the DPJ in the run-up to the general election will not alter the inevitability of major electoral losses for the party at the ballot box.

    ELECTION WATCH: Given the lack of party allegiance among many Japanese and the proliferation of small parties, the outcome of the December general election is unlikely to produce a stable government. No single party will win a majority, but the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is likely to emerge as the largest party. The main issue will be which other parties it decides to govern with. The LDP is hoping that it will do sufficiently well to govern solely with support from its long-time ally, the New Komeito party, perhaps with a few independents and defectors from other parties if necessary. The LDP leader, Shinzo Abe, has made it clear that he is not keen on a coalition with the Japan Restoration Party and is not even considering a grand coalition with the DPJ. The LDP election campaign platform strongly reflects Mr Abe's priorities to revive economic growth and review Japan's right to collective self-defence. There is greater emphasis on public spending for improving preparedness for major natural disasters, and the LDP will continue to oppose talks over the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a major US-led regional trade pact, as long as they are premised on the elimination of all tariffs without exception.

    INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS: Both the Japanese and Chinese governments will need to work hard to defuse their dispute over the Senkaku islands (known as the Diaoyu islands in China) following a new wave of anti-Japanese protests in China. Nationalist sentiment is running high in both countries, and Mr Abe would take a tougher line against China if he becomes Japan's next prime minister. The current dominance of public discourse in both countries by hawkish sentiment affords less space to those seeking to resolve the crisis. Despite diplomatic efforts on both sides, relations with China are expected to remain fraught during the forecast period as Japan seeks to maintain its strategic influence in Asia and to keep the US as its main ally. Relations with South Korea will also be difficult, given the ongoing dispute over the Takeshima islets (known as Dokdu in South Korea) as well as unresolved issues related to the 1965 Japanese-Korean post-war settlement.

    POLICY TRENDS: The public finances will remain in very poor shape throughout 2013-17. Gross public debt is estimated to have reached over 220% of nominal GDP in 2012, by far the highest ratio in the developed world, meaning that Japan's long-term debt dynamics are unsustainable and are getting worse. However, a sovereign payments crisis has been avoided so far, and the next government will be in a position to finance itself at very low interest rates. This largely reflects the composition of Japan's public debt, over 90% of which is held domestically. Even though politicians recognise the need for fiscal retrenchment, as demonstrated by the planned increases in the consumption tax, the next government is likely to introduce fresh stimulus measures to support the faltering economy. It is difficult to see any meaningful improvement in the fiscal position under these circumstances.

    ECONOMIC GROWTH: The Economist Intelligence Unit has revised down its GDP growth forecast for 2013 to 0.6%, from 1.2% previously, as the economic gloom hanging over Japan continues to deepen. The latest national accounts data for the third quarter of 2012 show a 0.9% contraction in GDP, which was worse than we had expected and has necessitated a downward revision in our estimate for growth in 2012 from 2% to 1.7%. A quick rebound seems unlikely as the half-yearly macroeconomic outlook of the Bank of Japan (the central bank), released in late October, noted that improvements in export demand and industrial production are needed before recovery commences. But the external trade environment is not expected to improve dramatically in 2013, given that the euro zone economy is expected to shrink by 0.2% and that of the US will grow by a modest 2.1%. Furthermore, deteriorating relations with China over the disputed Senkaku islands will continue to damage bilateral trade. The bleak outlook for exports will undermine business confidence and many Japanese companies are revising down their investment plans. With reconstruction spending associated with the aftermath of the March 2011 earthquake and tsunami also coming to an end in 2013, the underlying problems contributing to the country's slow rate of expansion in recent decades will re-emerge. The ageing of Japan's population will continue; moreover, both the population as a whole and the workforce will contract steadily in the forecast period. These unfavourable demographic trends will combine with the country's disorderly public finances and persistent deflationary presures to make it extremely difficult for policymakers to engineer a self-sustaining recovery in domestic demand. As a result, we forecast that real GDP growth will average a subdued 1% a year in 2013-17.

    INFLATION: Deflationary pressures remain deeply entrenched in Japan, and consumer prices fell by an average of 0.8% a year in 2009-11. Consumer prices have been falling on a year-on-year basis since June 2012 and are forecast to fall by an annual average of 0.4% in 2013 after no overall change in 2012. In 2014-17, however, there will be several factors that will change Japan's inflation picture. The most important of these will be the impact of the rise in the consumption tax rate to 8% from April 2014 and then to 10% in October 2015, causing increases in the underlying price level. In addition, the output gap is likely to narrow, while the yen will weaken; both of these trends will exert upward pressure on consumer prices in 2015-17. We forecast that consumer price inflation will average 0.6% a year in 2014-17.

    EXCHANGE RATES: After five years of significant appreciation as a result of its status as a safe-haven currency, the yen will fall in value gradually in 2013-16, before stabilising in 2017. This reversal in fortunes, which should correct the currency's current overvaluation, will be partly owing to the expected weakening of the country's current-account position during the forecast period. The interest rate differential between Japan and the US is likely to remain negligible for the next 24-36 months, as the Federal Reserve (the US central bank) is expected to keep its funds rates at 0­0.25% until 2015, while Japan's OCR will remain at 0%. Low rates in Japan will continue to encourage the carry trade (whereby investors borrow in currencies that are subject to low interest rates and lend in currencies attracting higher ones, profiting from the difference), and this will act as another moderating influence on the strength of the yen. From 2016 we expect US interest rates to rise more quickly than those in Japan, further reducing the yen's attractiveness. After averaging an estimated ¥79.9:US$1 in 2012, the currency is forecast to weaken gradually to ¥92.2:US$1 by 2016 and then to stabilise at ¥91.4:US$1 in 2017.

    EXTERNAL SECTOR: Japan's traditional merchandise trade surplus has been obliterated by the March 2011 natural disasters, the strength of the yen and weak global demand. These factors have caused the merchandise trade account to swing from a surplus of US$91bn in 2010 to an estimated deficit of US$74.5bn in 2012. Fuel imports have soared to compensate for the nuclear shutdown in Japan, while exports to Europe have fallen sharply. In 2013-17 the pace of import growth will be slightly higher than the rate of export growth; moreover, import expansion will occur from a higher base, and as a result the merchandise trade deficit will widen to US$94.2bn in 2017. The services account will remain in the red, mainly owing to outbound tourism, which will keep services debits high. There will be a substantial positive balance on the income account, a consequence of Japan's large stock of overseas direct and portfolio investment. The current account will remain in the black in the next five years, but the size of the surplus will shrink to the equivalent of 0.2% of GDP by 2017, from an estimated 1.1% in 2012.

    December 01, 2012

  • Forecast

    Japan: Country forecast summary

    Country forecast overview: Highlights

    • The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is very likely to emerge as the largest party after the general election, expected in December. It is hoping to do well enough to rule solely with its long-time ally, the New Komeito party, perhaps with a few independents and defectors from other political parties if necessary. Its campaign platform stresses the need to revive economic growth and review Japan's right to collective self-defence.
    • The ruling Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) will be punished by voters at the election, but it will still play a vital role in the new parliament, given that no party has a majority in the House of Councillors (the upper house). Elections for one-half of the seats in the upper house are due by end-July 2013, presenting the DPJ with an opportunity to redeem itself, especially if an LDP government were to be judged a failure.
    • Monetary policy is likely to face a major shake-up if the LDP forms the next government-overcoming deflation and correcting the yen's overvaluation are its top economic priorities. The LDP wants the Bank of Japan (the central bank) to raise its inflation target from 1% to 2% and to pursue "unlimited easing", pushing interest rates into negative territory, as well as directly to underwrite bonds to finance public works.
    • The ageing of Japan's population will continue in the forecast period; moreover, the total population and, in particular, the labour force will contract steadily. These unfavourable demographic trends will combine with Japan's disorderly public finances and pesistent deflationary presures to make it difficult for policymakers to engineer a self-sustaining recovery in domestic demand. The Economist Intelligence Unit expects the pace of economic expansion to average a subdued 1% a year in 2013-17.
    • Consumer prices are forecast to fall by 0.4% in 2013, but increases in the consumption tax rate and a weakening of the yen will start to generate upward price pressures again in 2014-17. After averaging an estimated ¥79.9:US$1 in 2012, the yen is expected to weaken gradually to ¥92.2:US$1 by 2016 before stabilising at ¥91.4:US$1 in 2017.
    • The current-account surplus will fall during the forecast period, amounting to the equivalent of just 0.2% of GDP by 2017. The merchandise trade deficit will widen steadily, but the external position will be supported by the large positive balance on the income account-a product of Japan's substantial stock of overseas direct and portfolio investment.

    Country forecast overview: Key indicators

    Key indicators201220132014201520162017
    Real GDP growth (%)1.70.61.51.20.90.9
    Consumer price inflation (av; %)0.0-0.40.70.60.60.4
    Budget balance (% of GDP)-9.7-8.5-8.1-7.7-7.7-7.6
    Current-account balance (% of GDP)1.10.70.50.70.30.2
    Commercial banks' prime rate (year­end; %)1.51.51.61.92.42.7
    Exchange rate ¥:US$ (av)79.982.686.789.092.291.4
    Exchange rate ¥:€ (av)102.6104.3108.6110.1116.1115.1

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    December 03, 2012

Country Briefing

Land area

377,899 sq km

Population

127.3m (2008)

Main towns

Population in millions (August 2009):

Tokyo (capital; 23 central wards) 8.8

Yokohama: 3.7

Osaka: 2.7

Nagoya: 2.3

Sapporo: 1.9

Kobe: 1.5

Kyoto: 1.5

Fukuoka: 1.5

Climate

Temperate, with the monsoon season in June, seasonal winds and typhoons in August-September, and heavy snow in December-February on the Japan Sea side

Weather in Tokyo (altitude 5.3 metres)

Hottest month, August, 29°C; coldest month, January, 7.6°C; driest month, August, 9.5 mm rainfall; wettest month, September, 319.5 mm rainfall

Language

Japanese

Measures

Mainly metric system; local measures include: 1 tsubo = 3.3 sq metres; 1 sun = 3 cm; 1 ri = 4 km; 1 kairi = 1.8 km (used for sea distances)

Currency

Yen (¥); ¥1 = 100 sen. Average exchange rates in 2011: ¥79.8:US$1; ¥111.3:€1

Fiscal year

April 1st-March 31st

Time

9 hours ahead of GMT

Public holidays

New Year, January 1st; Coming of Age Day, January 9th; National Foundation Day, February 11th; Vernal Equinox, March 20th; Golden Week holidays, April 29th and May 3rd-5th; Marine Day, July 16th; Respect for the Aged Day, September 17th; Autumnal Equinox, September 22nd; Sports Day, October 8th; Culture Day, November 3rd; Labour Thanksgiving, November 23rd; Emperor's Birthday, December 23rd

March 01, 2012

© 2008 Columbia International Affairs Online | Data Provided by the Economist Intelligence Unit