Ireland has assumed the rotating presidency of the Council of the European Union at an important moment, both for the bloc as it attempts to put the euro zone crisis behind it, and for Ireland as it seeks to extricate itself from its reliance since late 2010 on EU and IMF bail-out funding. In the past, Ireland has thrived in roles like this, which have allowed it to punch above its weight on the European stage. However, the country faces much more pressing domestic political and economic challenges, which will condition its approach to the presidency over the next six months.
Ireland's economy and public finances remain in a precarious position, and the public is increasingly weary after successive years of austerity, which has fuelled widespread public unease about the conditions of its EU/IMF bail-out agreement. An indication of the country's altered means and priorities is the budget of EUR60m it has allocated to the presidency. This compares with a figure of EUR110m in 2004, when it last held the role.
Institutional changes within the EU should further temper expectations as to what it is realistic for Ireland to accomplish. Meetings of the EU's leaders are now chaired by a permanent president rather than by the leader of the presiding member state. Similarly, although Ireland's finance minister will chair the 27-strong Ecofin meetings of EU finance ministers, much of the most important economic debate within the EU has shifted to the 17-strong Eurogroup, which also has a permanent chair (currently Jean-Claude Juncker, who steps down at the end of January 2013).
The priorities of Ireland's presidency
Despite the decline of the presidency's importance, it retains significant responsibilities for pushing forward EU business. The overall theme of the document outlining Ireland's priorities for its presidency is "For stability, jobs and growth". These are objectives to which the EU frequently pays lip service, but has been singularly unsuccessful at advancing in concrete political terms. The government has set out a wide range of issues on which it hopes to make progress, but the focus of its six-month presidency is likely to be on a relatively small number of these.
The first is the EU's budget for the 2014-20 period, which remains up in the air following an inconclusive summit in November 2012. The sums separating the various member states are trivial in the context of EU-wide GDP, but they reflect hardening political differences. Bridging these kinds of gaps is something for which Ireland has a track record of success. A related area of focus is reform of the common agricultural policy (CAP), which currently accounts for around 40% of all EU spending. Progress here will be contingent on a resolution of the overall EU budget.
A third priority is to make progress on plans for an EU-wide banking union, following an agreement reached in December 2012 to give the European Central Bank (ECB) new powers to supervise a range of commercial banks across the EU. While these powers are not expected to take effect until 2014, important details remain to be ironed out. This is a process which will begin under the Irish presidency, and one of the key questions will be how to handle "legacy debts" such as those incurred by the Irish state in rescuing its banking sector.
Ireland has also said it will press for further moves to deepen the EU's single market. In particular, it is looking to make progress in three areas: digital goods and services; the recognition of professional qualifications across the EU; and public procurement practice.
A fifth priority of the Irish presidency will be to advance a number of EU trade agreements. The most significant of these is a proposed agreement with the US. A high-level working group set up in 2011 to investigate possibilities is expected to recommend in early 2013 that full negotiations should be launched. These negotiations are highly unlikely to begin before the end of June, but Ireland's objective will be to ensure that member state leaders adopt a mandate that would allow for the start of negotiations.
Potential sources of tension
Although it is not a formal objective of the Irish presidency, the government is frank about its intention to use the presidency to help secure European agreement on an easing of Ireland's bank-related debt burden. Eamon Gilmore, the minister of foreign affairs and leader of the coalition's junior partner, the Labour Party, has said that Ireland will be bringing forward banking union proposals that he believes will allow for progress on reducing Ireland's bank-debt burden. Several creditor countries, including Germany, have already ruled out allowing the use of the financial resources of the euro zone rescue fund, the European Stabilisation Mechanism (ESM) to alleviate governments of legacy bank debt. The government is also seeking a revision of the terms of the promissory notes that the previous Irish government issued to recapitalise the worst of country's banks.
Technical negotiations with Ireland's EU partners on this issue have been going on for some time, but the ECB has so far resisted any concessions. Ireland's presidency of the Council of the European Union will do little in direct terms to change the ECB's outlook. However, it gives the country a platform from which to make its case more prominent and to lobby leaders and senior officials. This was highlighted in early January, when both the president of the European Commission and the president of the European Council publicly offered their broad support for Ireland's case. The government appears increasingly confident that a deal can be reached ahead of March 31st, when its next EUR3.1bn repayment on the promissory notes is required.
During the presidency, Ireland may also need to advance an EU-wide agenda in some areas that goes against its own national interests. One example is in the area of fiscal integration. Ireland could potentially gain from moves towards increased fiscal integration if it led to a reduction in borrowing costs for weaker states. But avoiding anything that calls into question the durability of Ireland's totemic 12.5% rate of corporation tax has long been a cornerstone of Irish economic policy. There is no prospect of any threat to the corporation tax rate within the time frame of the six-month presidency, but Ireland has committed to push forward discussions about a "common consolidated corporate tax base" (CCCTB) during this period. In essence, the idea behind CCCTB is that companies operating in the EU would be required to file a single corporate tax return. Ireland's prime minister has already voiced concern that this would make it more difficult for firms to take advantage of Ireland's low tax rate.
January 14, 2013
Political outlook: Political and institutional effectiveness
The system of government has traditionally been characterised by consensus in policymaking, in part owing to the non-ideological nature of Irish politics. Effective branches of the public service include the agencies responsible for attracting inward investment and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. However, politics can also have a strong local focus, which often impedes reform at the national level. The single transferable vote (STV) system, with multi-seat constituencies, causes intense rivalry, even within parties, and parliamentary seats can hang on just a handful of votes. Elected and aspiring politicians ignore even the smallest of such interest groups at their peril, as they could face an electoral challenge from a single-issue protest candidate.
Some institutional reform is expected during the forecast period (see also Political stability). The structures that failed to prevent the collapse of the banking system and economy have been called into question. Public anger has also been directed at the political and financial elites, with a widespread perception of vested interests, political cronyism and lethargy. The overthrow of the long-established Fianna Fail government in February 2011 showed the effective functioning of democracy, but also the need and appetite for change. All the major parties-Fine Gael, Labour and Fianna Fail-made manifesto commitments to abolish the Seanad (the upper house). Other proposals in the public sphere include the constitutional convention, a smaller lower house, a new appointment system for ministers and the speaker, stronger scrutiny of the executive by parliamentary committees, greater transparency and wider freedom of information. However, because most of the government's time and energy will be focused on tackling the ongoing financial crisis, few if any of these reforms are likely to be enacted. Financial regulation has been tightened since the crisis began to unfold in late 2008, but systemic problems remain.
The Irish government must function in close relationship with the troika of the European Commission, the IMF and the ECB. It is subject to regular reviews, targets and austerity measures. This is perceived as an encroachment on Irish sovereignty, although the government also received praise initially for taking "ownership" of the programme. The situation gives impetus for reform, but it remains to be seen how constructive the changes will be in the longer term. More broadly, the deepening euro zone crisis risks testing the wider political effectiveness of the EU itself.
Ireland's "social partnership" arrangement gives interest groups a significant say in a range of policy issues. It has ensured a high level of social cohesion, but has also frequently resulted in hesitation and delay on the part of the executive and a tendency to buy off interest groups by watering down proposals or by granting financial compensation (such as the large pay increases for public-sector workers during the boom years). The system has been put under pressure by the need for pay cuts and other emergency measures to reduce the budget deficit. In June 2010 the government and public-sector unions reached the Croke Park wage agreement, which promised no pay cuts for four years if efficiency savings were made, but it has yet to be fully implemented. However, there has been no indication that Ireland will experience the levels of civil unrest seen in Greece during the crisis.
June 13, 2012
Official name
Ireland/Eire
Form of state
Republic
Legal system
Common law; written constitution (1937)
National legislature
Bicameral Oireachtas (parliament); Dail (lower house) of 166 members directly elected by proportional representation for a five-year term; Seanad (Senate) of 60 members, 11 nominated by the taoiseach (prime minister), six elected by the universities and 43 by an electoral body comprising various interest groups. The Senate has powers of consultation and amendment only and may not veto proposals emanating from the Dail; it has a maximum period of 90 days to consider bills from the lower house. The Senate serves for the same term as the Dail
Electoral system
Universal direct suffrage over the age of 18 using the single transferable vote system of proportional representation in 43 multimember constituencies
National elections
Last elections: February 2011 (parliamentary) and October 2011 (presidential). Next parliamentary election due by February 2016; presidential election due in October 2018
Head of state
President, directly elected for a seven-year term; largely ceremonial role; currently Michael D Higgins
National government
Cabinet headed by the taoiseach, appointed by the president on the basis of ability to gain the support of the Dail. The government comprises Fine Gael and the Labour Party
Main political parties
Fianna Fail, Fine Gael, Labour Party, and Sinn Fein are the main parties in the Dail.
The cabinet
Taoiseach (prime minister): Enda Kenny (Fine Gael)
Tanaiste (deputy prime minister) & minister for foreign affairs & trade: Eamon Gilmore (Labour Party)
Key ministers
Agriculture, fisheries & food: Simon Coveney (Fine Gael)
Arts, heritage & the Gaeltacht: Jimmy Deenihan (Fine Gael)
Children & youth affairs: Frances Fitzgerald (Fine Gael)
Communications, energy & natural resources: Pat Rabbitte (Labour Party)
Community, equality & Gaeltacht affairs (Gaelic-speaking regions): Frances Fitzgerald (Fine Gael)
Education & skills: Ruairi Quinn (Labour Party)
Enterprise, trade & innovation: Richard Bruton (Fine Gael)
Environment, community & local government: Phil Hogan (Fine Gael)
Finance: Michael Noonan (Fine Gael)
Health & children: James Reilly (Fine Gael)
Justice & equality & defence: Alan Shatter (Fine Gael)
Public expenditure & reform: Brendan Howlin (Labour Party)
Social protection: Joan Burton (Labour Party)
Transport, tourism & sport: Leo Varadkar (Fine Gael)
Central Bank governor
Patrick Honohan
March 06, 2013
Outlook for 2013-17
Review
March 06, 2013
Fact sheet
| Annual data | 2012 | Historical averages (%) | 2008-12 |
| Population (m) | 4.6 | Population growth | 1.3 |
| GDP (US$ bn; market exchange rate) | 210.2 | Real GDP growth | -1.3 |
| GDP (US$ bn; purchasing power parity) | 194.3 | Real domestic demand growth | -4.9 |
| GDP per head (US$; market exchange rate) | 45,891 | Inflation | 0.5 |
| GDP per head (US$; purchasing power parity) | 42,426 | Current-account balance (% of GDP) | -0.4 |
| Exchange rate (av) €:US$ | 0.78 | FDI inflows (% of GDP) | 8.6 |
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Background: After a bitter struggle, the Anglo-Irish Treaty was signed in 1921. It conferred independent dominion status in the British Commonwealth on 26 counties of Ireland, while the other six remained within the UK. The establishment of the Irish Free State was followed by a brief civil war, which ended in 1923. The current constitution came into force in 1937, followed by the declaration of the republic in 1949. Ireland joined the European Economic Community (EEC, now the EU) in 1973 and was one of the founder members of European economic and monetary union (EMU) in 1999.
Political structure: In every election for 70 years, two broadly centrist parties-Fianna Fail and Fine Gael-had won the lion's share of the popular vote, but this trend was broken at the general election in February 2011, when Fine Gael and the Labour Party emerged as the two largest parties. A general election is held at least once every five years under the single transferable vote system (a form of proportional representation). The head of state is elected by universal suffrage but has no executive powers. A new president, Michael D Higgins, was elected in October 2011.
Policy issues: Economic policy priorities will be largely dictated by the terms agreed with the EU and IMF in exchange for Ireland's access to an EUR85bn (US$110bn) EU/IMF lending facility until late 2013. These terms aim to narrow the budget deficit to less than 3% of GDP by 2015, boost competitiveness and repair the ailing banking system. The Economist Intelligence Unit no longer expects Ireland to undergo a managed debt restructuring when the current EU/IMF bail-out package expires. A new facility or a precautionary credit line may be necessary. Maintaining Ireland's attractiveness as a location for foreign direct investment (FDI) will continue to be a policy priority.
Taxation: Most tax rates will rise over the forecast period as the government seeks to raise revenue to replace property tax receipts that have evaporated. The low rate of corporation tax, at 12.5%, is unlikely to be increased dramatically, as we expect Ireland to resist pressure from the EU to harmonise euro area corporate tax rates.
Foreign trade: In 2011 goods exports were worth EUR84.9bn and goods imports were worth EUR48.3bn. Exports are dominated by foreign-owned firms in the technology, financial services and chemicals industries. The current account recorded a small surplus in 2011, of EUR1.8bn (1.1% of GDP), despite deficits on the services and income accounts.
| Major exports 2011 | % of total | Major imports 2011 | % of total |
| Chemicals & related products | 60.2 | Machinery & transport equipment | 25.8 |
| Machinery & transport equipment | 12.0 | Chemicals & related products | 21.8 |
| Food, drinks & tobacco | 9.7 | Mineral fuels, lubricants & related materials | 14.1 |
| Precision instruments | 4.8 | Food, drinks & tobacco | 12.0 |
| Leading markets 2011 | % of total | Leading suppliers 2011 | % of total |
| US | 21.5 | UK | 39.2 |
| UK | 15.6 | US | 12.8 |
| Belgium | 14.8 | Germany | 7.7 |
| Germany | 6.8 | Netherlands | 5.7 |
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March 06, 2013
Data and charts: Annual trends charts
March 06, 2013
Ireland: Country outlook
FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT
POLITICAL STABILITY: The Economist Intelligence Unit's central forecast is that the coalition government of the dominant centre-right Fine Gael and the smaller centre-left Labour Party will serve its full five-year term until early 2016. The government led by Enda Kenny, the prime minister, has a comfortable majority in parliament and the opposition is fragmented. However, the need to continue budgetary retrenchment and implement unpopular structural economic reforms under the EU/IMF bail-out agreement will continue to test political stability and effectiveness. Public support for the government has declined sharply since the general election in February 2011, exacerbating ideological differences in the coalition. There are also tensions between Labour Party ministers and backbenchers, some of whom see the party leader, Eamon Gilmore, as too willing to compromise with Fine Gael. Since the government formed, five Labour members have resigned from the parliamentary party, including two who were junior ministers at the time and the Labour Party chairman, Colm Keaveney. Although we consider an early election unlikely, not least because of the damage that it would do to investor confidence, the collapse of the government cannot be discounted.
ELECTION WATCH: We expect the coalition to remain in government until the next general election, in early 2016. Although still too early to determine, the outcome is likely to depend on a range of factors, particularly Ireland's economic performance, developments in the wider euro area, especially regarding the Irish government's request for further debt relief, and whether Ireland exits the current EU/IMF bail-out smoothly when it expires at the end of this year. Since the collapse of the party's vote at the election in 2011 Fianna Fail's performance in opposition, under Micheal Martin, has helped to lift its public support. According to opinion polls in February 2013, it was slightly ahead of Fine Gael, but it remains to be seen whether the party can present itself as a credible alternative to the government before 2016. We believe that despite Sinn Fein's gains in opinion polls, voters would be unlikely to consider the party suitable for government, given its nationalist and leftist ideology, its roots in the politics of Northern Ireland (which is part of the UK) and its past role as the political wing of the disbanded Irish Republican Army (IRA).
INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS: Ireland assumed the six-month rotating presidency of the Council of the EU at the start of 2013 amid widespread public unease about the conditions of its EU/IMF bail-out agreement. The tone of future relations may depend on whether the government has to apply for a second credit facility from the permanent euro zone bail-out fund, the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), when the current agreement expires at the end of this year. A major point of tension between the government and the European Central Bank (ECB) appears to have been overcome following the ECB's acceptance, it appears with some reluctance, of the government's restructuring in early February 2013 of the promissory notes worth EUR31bn that were issued in 2010 to rescue two failed Irish banks. Tensions could be reignited, although not in the short term, if in its periodic reviews of the operation the ECB deems the bank debt restructuring to be monetary financing by the Central Bank of Ireland of the government's debt, which is prohibited under the EU.
POLICY TRENDS: Economic policy is largely dictated by the terms of the bail-out agreement of November 2010 with the "troika" of the European Commission, the IMF and the ECB. This agreement expires at end-2013, but the financial and economic reform programme agreed at the height of the crisis is likely to anchor policy well beyond 2013 regardless of whether Ireland exits the agreement or signs a new one. The programme contains a fiscal consolidation plan to at least 2015, as well as financial and structural reforms to boost competition in sheltered service sectors and to repair the banking system. The programme's highly ambitious fiscal target--a narrowing of the budget deficit from around 31% of GDP in 2010 (or about 12% excluding measures to rescue the banking system) to less than 3% of GDP by 2015--does not seem achievable, given weak economic growth prospects in Ireland and in at least two of its three main export markets, the euro zone and the UK (the third being the US). In addition to the restructuring of the promissory notes, the government is seeking agreement from the EU/IMF to ease the conditions on its other official loans. The government has also unexpectedly announced that at end-March 2013 it will end its blanket guarantee of the liabilities of the main commercial banks (a separate guarantee on individual deposits up to EUR100,000 remains in place).
ECONOMIC GROWTH: GDP figures have been volatile since the beginning of 2010, and have undergone substantial revisions by the Central Statistics Office in recent quarters, which has not helped to give a clear picture of the economy's direction. An export-driven recovery in the first half of 2011 came to a halt in the third quarter, but upwardly revised data in the fourth quarter meant that real GDP grew by 1.4% in 2011, double the Statistics Office's previous calculation. In 2012 we estimate that real GDP expanded by 0.6%. With demand for exports of goods and services only partly offsetting the continued weakness of domestic demand, we expect the economy to grow by 0.5% in 2013. We forecast that GDP growth will accelerate to 1.4% in 2014 and around 2% a year in 2015-17. There are several risks to our central forecast, including renewed financial turmoil in the euro zone, which could spread to Ireland, given the persistent problems in the banking system, the high level of government debt and heavy reliance on EU/IMF funding.
INFLATION: EU harmonised consumer price inflation generally accelerated over the first three quarters of 2012, mainly owing to higher global commodity prices. However, as expected, it started to ease from September onwards, and this trend should continue into 2013 owing to weak domestic demand, high unemployment and (at best) moderate wage growth, which should offset the effects of further increases in indirect tax rates in the 2013 budget and a weaker euro. Inflation is expected to slow from an average of 1.9% in 2012 to 0.8% in 2013. It is forecast to accelerate moderately from 2014 to reach 2% in 2016-17 as domestic demand strengthens and commodity prices rise.
EXCHANGE RATES: Although not our central forecast, there is a substantial risk that several countries will be forced to leave the euro over the medium term. Such fears partly explain the volatility of the single currency during 2012, when the euro fluctuated in a range between US$1.20:EUR1 and US$1.35:EUR1. Since September 2012 the promise of determined ECB action to safeguard the currency zone has helped to stabilise financial markets to a degree, and improved investor sentiment has underpinned a strengthening of the euro against the dollar. However, the euro will remain volatile in response to shifting risk appetite, protracted economic weakness and lower reserves accumulation by China. We expect it to average US$1.33:EUR1 in 2013 and US$1.28:EUR1 in 2014-17, but there is a significant risk of sharp movements either way.
EXTERNAL SECTOR: Import growth has been more subdued than export growth, causing the current account to record surpluses of about 1% of GDP in 2010 and 2011 after ten years in deficit. In 2012 the surplus is estimated to have risen to close to 4% of GDP. We expect that it will continue to show substantial surpluses in 2013-17 as domestic demand weakness persists and competitiveness gains hold up goods and services exports, despite weaker demand in important markets (especially during the first half of the forecast period).
March 11, 2013
Country forecast overview: Highlights
March 06, 2013
Land area
68,890 sq km
Population
4.588m (2011 census)
Main towns
Population in '000 (2011 census):
Dublin metropolitan area: 1,273
Dublin (city, the capital): 528
Cork: 119
Galway: 76
Limerick: 57
Waterford: 47
Climate
Temperate
Weather in Dublin (altitude 13 metres)
Hottest month, August, 16.2°C (average daily temperature); coldest month, February, 3.2°C; driest month, May, 36 mm average rainfall; wettest month, April, 92 mm
Languages
English, Irish (Gaeilge)
Measures
Traditionally UK (imperial) system, now largely converted to metric system
Currency
Euro (€)
Time
GMT in autumn/winter; one hour ahead in spring/summer
Public holidays
January 1st, March 17th (St Patrick's Day), Good Friday, Easter Monday, first Monday in May, first Monday in June, first Monday in August, last Monday in October, December 25th and 26th
January 16, 2013