Haiti

Politics:

• Analysis

  Haiti politics: Quick View - Martelly seeks to build ties with Japan

  Event

  Haiti's president, Michel Martelly, visited Japan between December 5th and 8th. During his visit he met with Japan's prime minister, Yoshihiko Noda, as well as Emperor Akihito and Empress Michiko. He also spoke at a dinner with representatives of the Japanese private sector.

  Analysis

  Mr Martelly is the first sitting president of Haiti to visit Japan. The Haitian delegation included the foreign minister, Pierre-Richard Casimir, the commerce and industry minister, Wilson Laleau, and Gregory Mevs, co-chair of the Presidential Advisory Council for Economic Development and Investment (CCPDEI). The visit was originally scheduled for August, but was postponed due to Tropical Storm Isaac, which hit Haiti that month.

  Haiti was subsequently hit by Hurrican Sandy in October, and in response to the severe food shortage that has followed the damage to the farm sector, Japan's ambassador to Haiti, Kenji Kuratomi, signed an agreement with Mr Casimir to provide Y540m (US$6.6m) in food aid. That aid comes on top of US$140m that Japan has provided in connection with the January 2010 earthquake that devastated the capital, Port-au-Prince, and left several hundred thousand Haitians homeless. Japan also has provided aid in the form of 2,200 members of its Self-Defence Forces who were dispatched to Haiti as part of the United Nations Stabilisation Mission in Haiti (Minustah) operations to help with post-earthquake repairs.

  Mr Noda pledged to continue Japanese support for Haiti, mainly in health, education and basic social services related to post-earthquake reconstruction. Mr Martelly requested Japanese support for Haiti's agricultural sector and environment.

  The visit strengthens Haiti's official ties with Japan, but business links still remain relatively limited. Bilateral trade with Japan was US$69.3m in 2011, an increase of 3.4% from the previous year, according to data from the IMF. Japanese exports accounted for most of the trade, totalling US$67.4m, a 2.5% increase year on year. Imports from Haiti were US$1.9m, a 46% increase from 2010.

  However, Mr Martelly's speech at a dinner organised by the Inter-American Development Bank may help boost Haiti's relations with potential Japanese investors. The Haitian president talked about opportunities for investment, partnership and joint ventures. He also emphasised the advantages Haiti offers in terms of trade access to Europe, the US, Canada and the Caribbean Community, thanks to its preferential trade access to those markets.

  December 10, 2012

• Background

  Haiti: Political forces

  Results of legislative elections, 2006
  	No. of seats
  Senate (30 seats)
  Lespwa	11
  Parti Fusion des Sociaux-Démocrates Haïtiens (Fusion)	5
  Organisation du Peuple en Lutte (OPL)	4
  Fanmi Lavalas (FL)	3
  Latibonit Ann Aksyon (LAAA)	2
  Pou Nou Tou (Pont)	2
  Union Nationale Chrétienne pour la Reconstruction d'Haïti (UNCRH)	2
  Alliance Démocratique (Alyans	1
  Chamber of Deputies (99 seats)
  Lespwa	22
  Fusion	15
  Alyans	11
  OPL	10
  UNCRH	7
  FL	6
  LAAA	5
  Mobilisation pour le Progrès d'Haiti (MPH)	4
  Rassemblement des Démocrates Nationaux Progressistes (RDNP)	4
  Others	15
  Source: Electoral authorities.

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  September 08, 2008

• Structure

  Haiti: Political structure

  Official name

  Republic of Haiti

  Form of government

  The president, elected for a five-year term, chooses the prime minister, generally from the largest party in the parliament; these two then appoint the cabinet, subject to parliamentary approval. The parliament comprises a 30-member Senate (the upper house), which is elected for six-year terms in staggered elections, with one-third of seats contested every two years, and a 99-member Chamber of Deputies (the lower house)

  Head of state

  Michel Martelly, who was elected president in March 2011 in a second-round vote, assumed office on May 14th 2011, replacing René Préval of the Inite coalition

  Legal system

  Based on the Napoleonic Code; courts of appeal and civil courts sit in each department

  National elections

  Presidential and legislative elections took place on November 28th 2010. A second-round run-off election for the presidency and a number of legislative posts was held on March 20th 2011. Overdue partial legislative elections are still pending. The next presidential election is not scheduled until late 2015

  National government

  The Haitian parliament took office in early May 2011. Inite is the largest party in both houses, with 15 of 30 seats in the Senate and 32 of 99 seats in the Chamber of Deputies

  Main political organisations

  Inite; Fusion des Sociaux-Démocrates (known as Fusion); Organisation du Peuple en Lutte (OPL); Fanmi Lavalas (FL); Ayiti Ann Aksyon (AAA); Repons Peyizan; Rassemblement des Démocrates Nationaux Progressistes (RDNP); Alliance Démocratique (known as Alyans); Union Nationale Chrétienne Pour la Reconstruction d'Haïti (known as Union); Front de Reconstruction Nationale (FRN); l'Union des Citoyens Haïtiens Démocrates pour le Développement et l'Education (UCCADE)

  Key ministers

  President: Michel Martelly

  Prime minister: Laurent Lamothe

  Agriculture & natural resources: Hébert Docteur

  Commerce & industry: Pierre Wilson Laleau

  Culture: Choiseul Henriquez

  Economy & finance: André Lemercier Georges

  Education: Vanneur Pierre

  Environment: Jean Vilmond Hilaire

  Foreign affairs: Pierre Richard Casimir

  Haitians living abroad: Daniel Supplice

  Health: Florence Duperval Guillaume

  Interior & collective territories: Ronsard Saint-Cyr

  Justice & public security: Me. Josué Pierre-Louis

  Parliamentary affairs: Ralph Ricardo Théano

  Planning & external co-operation: Laurent Lamothe

  Public works, transport & communications: Jacques Rousseau

  Tourism: Stéphanie Balmir Villedrouin

  Women's affairs: Yanick Mézil

  Youth, sport & civic action: René Jean Roosevelt

  Central bank governor

  Charles Castel

  November 26, 2012

Economy:

• Background

  Haiti: Population

  Population
  	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007
  Population (m)	9.0	9.2	9.3	9.5	9.6
  Population (% change)	1.6	1.7	1.6	1.6	1.5
  Source: US Census Bureau.

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  • Haiti is the poorest country in the western hemisphere. It is also the second most densely populated (after Barbados). According to the most recent poverty estimates—based on a 2001 survey—over 50% of the population live below the US$1-a-day poverty line and 76% below the US$2-a-day poverty line. Poverty is especially high in rural areas, where the rate is 69% using the US$1-a-day poverty line and 86% using the US$2-a-day measure. In the 2007/08 UN Human Development Index Haiti ranked 146th out of 177 countries.
  • The population is young and increasingly urban. The latest census, carried out in 2003, indicates that more than half the population is under the age of 21, and 36.5% is under 15. Fifty-eight percent is between 15 and 64, and, reflecting low life expectancy, only 5% is over the age of 65. The West department, including the capital of Port-au-Prince, accounts for 37% of the total population. The next most populous departments are the Artibonite (16%) and the North (10%). The share of the population living in rural areas has declined to 59% from 75% in 1982.
  • Many Haitians emigrate to escape poverty and in search of jobs. There are over 500,000 Haitians or persons of Haitian origin (some estimates go as high as 1m) living in the Dominican Republic, and 2m in the US. As many as 30% of all Haitian households have "close relatives" living abroad.

  September 08, 2008

• Structure

  Haiti: Economic structure

  Economic structure: Annual indicators

  	2008a	2009a	2010a	2011b	2012b
  GDP at market prices (G bn)c	250.6	266.6	264.0	297.7a	329.9
  GDP (US$ m)c	6,408	6,470	6,635	7,346a	7,867
  Real GDP growth (%)	0.8	2.9	-5.4	5.6a	3.8
  Consumer price inflation (av; %)	15.5	0.0	5.7	8.4	6.5
  Consumer price inflation (end-period; %)	10.1	2.0	6.2	8.3	9.2
  Population (m)	9.7	9.9b	10.0b	10.1	10.3
  Exports of goods fob (US$ m)c	490.2	551.0	559.7	767.5a	793.1
  Imports of goods fob (US$ m)c	2,107.7	2,032.1	2,809.5	2,962.1a	2,899.4
  Current-account balance (US$ m)c	-289.1	-226.3	-165.8	-282.2	-288.3
  Foreign-exchange reserves excl gold (US$ m)	541.4	788.6	1,334.0	1,193.7	1,293.2
  Total external debt (US$ bn)	1.9b	1.2	0.5b	0.7	0.9
  Debt-service ratio, paid (%)	2.6b	1.9b	17.3b	0.6	0.7
  Exchange rate (av) G:US$	39.11	41.20	39.80	40.52	41.94
  a Actual. b Economist Intelligence Unit estimates. c Fiscal years ending September 30th.

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  Origins of gross domestic product 2010/11a	% of total	Components of gross domestic product 2010/11a	% of total
  Agriculture & fisheries	25.7	Consumption	113.4
  Commerce, hotels & restaurants	29.1	Gross domestic investment	28.0
  Government services	12.3	Exports of goods & services	13.7
  Manufacturing	8.3	Imports of goods & services	-55.1
  Total incl others	100.0	Total	100.0
  Principal exports 2010/11a	US$ m	Principal imports 2010/11a	US$ m
  Light manufactures	267.8	Manufactured goods	786.3
  Essential oils	16.4	Fuels & lubricants	770.4
  Mango	10.5	Food	551.3
  Cacao	6.9	Machinery & transport equipment	292.5
  Main destinations of exports 2010/11a	% of total	Main origins of imports 2010/11a	% of total
  US	83.3	US	31.9
  Dominican Republic	3.1	China	25.3
  Canada	2.3	Brazil	8.7
  Mexico	1.9	Colombia	7.2
  a Fiscal years ending September 30th.

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  November 26, 2012

• Outlook

  Haiti: Country outlook

  Haiti: Country outlook

  FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT

  OVERVIEW: The severe weakness of Haiti's governing institutions will keep the political climate unstable. There will be an international presence to bolster security and advance post-earthquake reconstruction for several more years. President Michel Martelly will focus on infrastructure upgrades and job creation, rebuilding administrative capabilities and attracting foreign investment, but a lack of support in the legislature will impede progress. Slow progress in providing permanent housing to earthquake victims, together with high unemployment and poverty levels, will sustain the risk of social unrest and threaten the government's popularity. Economic growth will be lower than had been envisaged, owing to recent tropical storms and slow government investment, but reconstruction, foreign aid inflows and modest demand growth in the US will support recovery. Inflation will be pushed up by higher food prices following damage to agricultural areas during Hurricane Sandy in October 2012. It is forecast at 8.4% at end-2013 and 7.9% at end-2014 (when oil prices will begin to rise). The current-account deficit will expand in the 2013-14 forecast period as reconstruction-related import spending picks up, while exports will grow at a slower pace. Large inflows of foreign donations will cover the trade deficit.

  DOMESTIC POLITICS: The risk of political instability will remain high in Haiti in 2013-14, owing to the weakness of its governing institutions and the myriad problems that remain to be addressed following the devastating earthquake that struck the capital, Port-au-Prince, in January 2010. Sporadic unrest, weak government implementation capacity and a lack of co-ordination among foreign non-governmental organisations working in Haiti will keep reconstruction progress slow-a situation that will be exacerbated by damage sustained during Hurricane Sandy. The president suffers from a lack of majority support in the legislature, which will hinder advancement of his agenda. With parliament dominated by the opposition Inite (Unity) movement, there is great potential for legislative gridlock. The prime minister, Laurent Lamothe, who took up the post in May, has expressed commitment to reforms conducive to investment and private-sector-led growth, but faces obstructionism from lawmakers. A new constitution enacted in June includes institutional advances, such as the creation of an independent judicial authority, the Supreme Council of Judicial Power (known by its French acronym, CSPJ), which began operating in July, and a new permanent Electoral Council. The constitution also recognises dual citizenship and will permit Haitians with a foreign passport to participate in local politics (allowing the Haitian diaspora a bigger role). Creation of the CSPJ should increase the independence of the three branches of government and boost international confidence in the Martelly administration, although it is too soon to tell how the court will operate in practice. The security situation will remain precarious, and the risk of social unrest high, as the government struggles to meet public expectations; vast numbers of people remain without long-term housing. Mr Martelly aims to work with the UN on a plan for the eventual withdrawal of UN peacekeepers, the Mission des Nations Unies pour la Stabilisation en Haïti (Minustah, the UN Stabilisation Mission in Haiti). However, the UN has renewed Minustah's mandate for another year, until October 2013, and an international presence-to maintain security and assist with reconstruction-will be needed into the medium term. Nevertheless, the UN will gradually hand over responsibility for security to the government and to the Police Nationale d'Haïti (PNH, the national police). International concern will grow as Mr Martelly advances his plans to reconstitute the army (which was disbanded in 1995). For now, the Economist Intelligence Unit expects that the PNH will be the main entity working with the 8,800 Minustah peacekeepers to maintain order. The next presidential election is not scheduled until late 2015. The mandate for ten senators (one-third of the upper house) expired on May 8th, leaving the seats vacant because the government was unable to organise elections on time. A dispute with lawmakers over the composition of a new Permanent Electoral Council makes it very unlikely that the vote can be held before the end of 2012. Elections also are pending to fill more than 100 mayor and town commissioner posts. Filling the senatorial seats is critical to ensure a quorum in the Senate, without which voting on legislation cannot take place, exacerbating poor governance and raising the risk of legislative stalemate.

  INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS: An international presence led by the UN to provide security and help with reconstruction will be needed for several years, but insufficient progress since the earthquake and evidence that a cholera epidemic originated with a group of UN peacekeepers will continue to foment public resentment towards Minustah. Although its mandate was extended for another year in October 2012, the mission is likely to begin to wind down gradually, given the public's dissatisfaction with the force and also in view of fatigue in countries that have supplied manpower and leadership to the peacekeeping effort. The Martelly administration will maintain good relations with the US following the re-election in November of its president, Barack Obama. Co-operation on economic and humanitarian issues will continue, and efforts to combat the drugs trade will increase, given evidence that Haiti is a major transshipment point for the trafficking of illegal narcotics to the US. Bilateral trade will be underpinned by the US's Haitian Hemispheric Opportunity through Partnership Encouragement Act (HOPE II), which provides duty-free entry for Haitian textiles. Diplomatic relations with the Dominican Republic will remain solid, but underlying tensions related to the illegal migration of Haitians to the neighbouring country will continue. The two governments have announced that they will negotiate a free-trade agreement, but no timetable has been set.

  POLICY TRENDS: Mr Martelly has railed against some foreign groups and donors because of the slow pace of recovery and the unco-ordinated nature of their activities. However, greater Haitian control of the reconstruction process, a main component of the president's policy platform, is unlikely in the short term, given the weakness of his government. Economic policy will focus on building up the capabilities of the public administration, developing infrastructure, supporting agriculture and attracting foreign investment. Although economic growth has resumed, rebuilding will remain slow and the country will continue to rely heavily on international donations and IMF assistance. Much of the foreign aid promised has yet to arrive, although disbursements should speed up in the coming year. Even so, poor co-ordination and inadequate infrastructure will complicate the distribution of aid and limit the success of efforts to create jobs and stimulate sustainable economic activity. A Post-Disaster Needs Assessment (PDNA), focused on short- and medium-term needs, is helping to guide reconstruction. The PDNA is partly based on a 2007 poverty reduction strategy paper, which centred on enhancing human development, strengthening democratic governance, and promoting agriculture, rural development and tourism. Producing tangible short-term results, such as successful resettlement of displaced people, will remain a key challenge. In June Mr Lamothe announced a new scheme to help the desperately poor population. The government has created a cash-transfer programme for poor mothers, called "Ti manman cheri" (Dear Mother), with a goal of reaching 100,000 mothers by end-2012, at an estimated US$10m cost. Increasing access to credit will be important in promoting private-sector activity. However, expansion of credit will be constrained by high interest rates and high risk for lenders. There is much talk of boosting lending to small- and medium-sized enterprises, but progress will be slow. Local financial institutions and multilaterals such as the Inter-American Development Bank are working to facilitate the purchase of new homes through housing loans. This initiative will take time to bear fruit, and the number of home loans provided will initially be small, but it represents a new departure in Haiti.

  ECONOMIC GROWTH: Economic growth continues to recover, albeit at a slower rate than previously forecast because of the slow pace of execution of government investments, which has hit construction, as well as damage caused to agricultural output during recent storms (agriculture accounts for about 25% of GDP). After estimated growth of 3.8% in 2011/12 (October-September)-down from our previous forecast of 5%-we now expect growth of 4% in 2012/13 (against 6.5% in our previous forecast) and 6.5% in 2013/14. Domestic demand is expected to continue to drive growth in manufacturing, commerce and services. An expected pick-up in reconstruction activity and acceleration of government infrastructure projects, especially in transport, will boost construction, as will the renovation of two major airports and the building of new hotels in Port-au-Prince. A revival of agricultural production, which employs a large proportion of Haitian workers, assumes recovery of damaged areas in 2013-14 and expanded government assistance to famers. Services will benefit from new hotel capacity, but-despite the government's plans to revive the long-dormant buoyant tourism industry-a massive return of tourists is unlikely until Haiti's medium-term economic and political outlook becomes more certain. Private consumption will be supported by a steady influx of foreign aid funds and workers' remittances. The latter, which are estimated to have been equivalent to around 21.9% of GDP in 2010/11, will be essential to prop up household income. We expect that remittance inflows will continue to grow in US dollar terms, to an annual average of US$1.9bn in 2013-14 (20.3% of GDP). Exports, particularly of textiles, will increase, especially as a result of the inauguration in October of the huge new Caracol Industrial Park. The garment industry will be bolstered by preferential access to the US market under the HOPE II agreement. Moderate demand growth in the US, the country's main trading partner, will also help to boost exports. However, strong growth in reconstruction-related imports will offset much of these gains. There are downside risks to our forecasts. If reconstruction is further complicated by a slowdown in aid inflows or by government squabbling, growth will be weaker than forecast. We expect that US$1bn-2bn in aid pledged by foreign donors will be disbursed during 2013-14. However, poor implementation capacity and inadequate infrastructure will limit the success of efforts to create jobs and stimulate the economy. The pace of GDP growth will also depend largely on how strongly key employment-generating sectors, such as agriculture, construction and garment manufacturing, expand. Although textile output should grow, owing to the new industrial park, agriculture will remain extremely vulnerable to drought and other weather-related shocks.

  EXTERNAL ACCOUNT: Haiti has a heavy import dependency, owing to the lack of a manufacturing base, and hence traditionally runs large trade and current-account deficits. According to the latest Central Bank data, total export earnings grew by a mere 0.4% in the first three quarters of 2011/12. The import bill contracted by 13%, as the pace of reconstruction spending slowed. This will yield an estimated current-account deficit of 3.7% of GDP in full-year 2011/12. The current-account deficit will rise to an average 4.9% of GDP in the next two fiscal years, as import spending-related reconstruction from the earthquake and subsequent storms picks up. Imports of food will also rise in 2012/13, following damage to agricultural capacity caused by Hurricane Sandy, raising total import spending by 15.7% year on year. Exports will grow moderately in 2012/13, by 7.4% (and by 15.8% in 2013/14), boosted by rising garment exports (Haiti's most important export product) as a result of the opening of the Caracol Industrial Park in the north of the country, which will add capacity and attract new contracts. Such sales will also be supported by the HOPE II agreement with the US, which allows duty-free access to the US market for textile products until 2018. Remittance inflows and foreign donations will boost the current transfers surplus, which will offset the trade deficit. Balance-of-payments problems should be prevented by large inflows of development assistance, Fund disbursements and a sharp decline in debt repayments, resulting from post-earthquake debt relief. International reserves stood at US$1.18bn in September 2012, equivalent to five months of import cover.

  November 22, 2012

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Country Briefing

Land area

27,750 sq km

Population

9.5m (2006 IMF estimate)

Main towns

Population in '000, 2005 (unofficial estimates):

Port-au-Prince (capital): 2,100: (incl surrounding districts)

Cap-Haïtien: 145

Gonaïves: 120

Les Cayes: 90

Climate

Tropical

Weather in Port-au-Prince (altitude 37 metres)

Hottest month, July, 23-34°C (average daily minimum and maximum); coldest month, January, 20-31°C; driest months: December and January, 33 mm average rainfall; wettest month: May, 231 mm average rainfall

Languages

Creole and French

Measures

Metric system

Currency

1 gourde (G) = 100 centimes. An officially fixed rate of G5:US$1 was abandoned in favour of a free-market exchange rate in 1991. Average exchange rate in 2011: G39.8:US$1

Fiscal year

October-September

Time

5 hours behind GMT

Public holidays

January 1st and 2nd; Shrove Tuesday; Good Friday; April 14th; May 1st, 18th and Ascension Day; May 22nd; Holy Spirit; Corpus Christi; Assumption; October 8th, 17th and 24th; November 1st, 2nd and 18th; December 5th and 25th

August 20, 2012