Guyana

Politics:

• Analysis

  Guyana politics: Quick View - Opposition calls for Truth and Reconciliation

  Event

  The leader of the opposition, David Granger, is seeking parliamentary consensus for a government-sanctioned probe into the criminal violence that wreaked havoc in Guyana from 2004 to 2010.

  Analysis

  The majority opposition party, A Partnership for National Unity (APNU), has called on the government to appoint a commission of inquiry into the widespread criminality which plagued Guyana from 2004 to 2010. That period witnessed some of the most gruesome killings in the country's history, including the assassination of a serving government minister and bloody massacres in the towns of Lusignan, Bartica and Lindo Creek that claimed the lives of over 20 people. During the six-year period, the state proved largely incapable of meeting its security obligations to the population. As a consequence, there was a widespread breakdown in law and order in the country. Criminal gangs-some of which were led by a notorious drug lord, Roger Khan, who is currently serving a 15-year sentence in a US prison-subsequently merged forces with opportunistic and lawless members of the security forces who together destabilised much of the country, resulting in the death and disappearance of more than 400 people.

  While well-intentioned, the inquiry's focus seems to be narrow, both in scope and time period, raising concerns from other key political stakeholders, especially the ruling People's Progressive Party/Civic (PPP/C), which has to date appeared uneasy about the implications of such an open investigation. Instead, they have called for a wider probe of all violence, from as early as the pre-Independence era, under the umbrella of a Truth and Reconciliation Commission (TRC).

  January 31, 2013

• Background

  Guyana: Political forces

  Guyana's two main political parties are the PPP-Civic and the PNC-R. All parties, including smaller ones like the Alliance for Change (AFC), share a broadly pragmatic and centrist stance. However, their support is decided by ethnic loyalties, rather than policy. The PPP-C's support base is mainly Indo-Guyanese, whereas that of the PNC-R is Afro-Guyanese. The AFC, a multi-ethnic party formed in 2005, won five seats in the 2006 election, raising hopes of an end to the ethnic political impasse that has split Guyanese politics since the 1950s. Two of the minor parties, Rise Organise and Rally, and The United Force (TUF) each hold a single seat.

  The judiciary

  The legal system is based on English common law, with some elements from Roman-Dutch law. Preliminary hearings of criminal cases are held in local magistrate's courts. Major criminal and civil cases are heard in the high courts, which are the responsibility of the Chief Justice. There is an appeal court in Georgetown, under the administration of the Chancellor of the Judiciary, with a right of final appeal to the Caribbean Court of Justice which sits in Port of Spain, Trinidad. There is a severe shortage of senior judicial personnel. Management of the judiciary has been affected by the polarised political climate, with several senior figures widely believed to be heavily biased for or against the government. A legal ruling in 2007 prevented an attempt by the government to merge the offices of Chief Justice and Chancellor of the Judiciary.

  The legislature

  The unicameral National Assembly has 65 members. A modified electoral system introduced before the 2001 election provides for multimember constituencies in each of the ten regions, and additional top-up seats allocated nationwide. The opposition is represented on several major committees, including:

  • a parliamentary management committee;
  • sectoral committees on natural resources, social services and foreign relations;
  • a committee charged with nomination of members to services commissions for the civil service, the judiciary and the police; and
  • a constitutional reform committee that is intended to facilitate more radical reforms beyond the modest initiatives agreed in 2000.

  Policy formulation is reasonably effective, but decision-making is often subject to protracted delays, and the country's polarised political climate can at times complicate relatively minor matters.

  Media services

  There are 14 television channels, including one that is state-owned, but local programming is limited. Relations between television stations and the government are often strained, with the government complaining of bias and low standards of reporting, and the stations alleging state interference. There are two radio stations, both state-owned. Opposition demands for the removal of the state radio monopoly have been firmly resisted. The government also owns a daily newspaper, the Guyana Chronicle. The two main privately owned newspapers are the Stabroek News, and the Kaieteur News. A third, the Guyana Times, established in 2008, holds a broadly pro-government position.

  Democracy index (for methodology, see Appendix)

  The Economist Intelligence Unit's 2008 democracy index ranks Guyana 76 out of 167 countries, putting it among the 52 countries considered "flawed democracies". This designation includes regional neighbours such as Jamaica, Suriname and the Dominican Republic as well as Latin American countries including Argentina, Brazil and Mexico. Guyana scores among the lowest of all flawed democracies, only ranking ahead of Guatemala (which ranks 81), Philippines, Benin and Mali. Whilst its civil liberties rating is similar to the UK's and approaches those of other European Union member states, it scores poorly in terms of political participation, political culture, and in the efficacy of government. Since 1970, there has been just one round of local elections, 1n 1994. Fresh local elections have been delayed since 1997.

  Democracy index
  	Overall score	Overall rank	Electoral process	Government functioning	Political participation	Political culture	Civil liberties	Regime type
  Guyana	6.12	76	7.83	5.71	4.44	4.38	8.24	Flawed democracy
  Overall and component scores are on a scale of 0 to 10; overall rank is out of 167 countries.

  Download text file (csv format)

  September 03, 2008

• Structure

  Guyana: Political structure

  Official name

  Co-operative Republic of Guyana

  Form of government

  Republican representative system with a strong presidency and limited regional autonomy

  The executive

  The president appoints a prime minister and cabinet, not all of whom need to be members of the legislature; the cabinet is answerable to the National Assembly

  Head of state

  Elected president, who is the leader of the largest party in the National Assembly

  National legislature

  Unicameral 65-member National Assembly; normally sits for a five-year term

  Legal system

  Series of magistrates' courts and further appellate courts, with the Caribbean Court of Justice at the apex

  National elections

  November 28th 2011; next election due by December 2016

  National government

  The PPP/Civic is a minority government; it holds 32 of the 65 seats in the National Assembly

  Main political organisations

  Government: People's Progressive Party/Civic (PPP/C)

  Opposition: A Partnership for National Unity (APNU); Alliance for Change (AFC)

  Key ministers

  President: Donald Ramotar

  Prime minister: Samuel Hinds

  Agriculture: Leslie Ramsammy

  Amerindian affairs: Pauline Campbell-Sukhai

  Attorney-general & minister of legal affairs: Anil Nandlall

  Culture, youth & sport: Frank Anthony

  Education: Priya Manickchand

  Finance: Ashni Kumar Singh

  Foreign affairs: Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett

  Head of presidential secretariat: Roger Luncheon

  Health: Bheri Ramsaran

  Home affairs: Clement Rohee

  Housing & water: Irfaan Ali

  Human services & social security: Jennifer Webster

  Labour: Nanda Gopaul

  Local government & regional development: Ganga Persaud

  Natural resources & the environment: Robert Persaud

  Public service: Jennifer Westford

  Public works: Robeson Benn

  Central bank governor

  Lawrence Williams

  January 15, 2013

Economy:

• Background

  Guyana: Education

  Educational attainment has improved in recent years, following a steady increase in public expenditure on education. As a percentage of GDP, education spending rose to 8.5% in 2002-04, up from 2.2% in 1991, and to 14.5% of government expenditure, up from 6.5% over the same period. The number of teachers has increased, although the government still struggles to retain qualified teachers, many of whom emigrate. Around 31% of total teaching staff were unqualified in 2003, although this represents a fall from 43% in 2000. Secondary school enrolment rose from 35% of the relevant age group in 1992 to 76% in 2003. In 2001, the University of Guyana opened a second campus in eastern Guyana. The enrolment rate in primary schools was 99% in 2002 and the officially recorded adult literacy rate was 97.2%, although much of the population has low or moderate levels of functional literacy. The government has sought to deal with the educational deficit by improving the working conditions and skills of teachers, and by arranging access to educational facilities.

  September 03, 2008

• Structure

  Guyana: Economic structure

  Economic structure: Annual indicators

  	2008a	2009a	2010a	2011b	2012b
  GDP at market prices (G$ bn)	391.5	413.1	460.1	499.5	539.7
  GDP (US$ bn)	1.9	2.0	2.3	2.4	2.6
  Real GDP growth (%)	2.0	3.3	4.4b	5.4	3.3
  Consumer price inflation (av; %)	8.1	2.9	4.5	2.6a	3.0
  Population (m)	0.8	0.8	0.8	0.8a	0.8
  Exports of goods fob (US$ m)	789.0	768.2	884.5	1,182.3	1,262.4
  Imports of goods fob (US$ m)	1,183.4	1,096.8	1,299.4	1,772.2	1,944.5
  Current-account balance (US$ m)	-191.6	-165.3	-159.7	-335.0	-347.2
  Foreign-exchange reserves excl gold (US$ m)	355.9	631.4	782.1	801.8a	879.9
  Exchange rate (av) G$:US$	203.63	203.95	203.64	204.02a	204.37
  a Actual. b Economist Intelligence Unit estimates.

  Download the numbers in Excel

  Origins of gross domestic product 2007	% of total	Components of gross domestic product 2010	% of total
  Agriculture, forestry & fishing	30.1	Private consumption	85.4
  Mining & quarrying	6.7	Government consumption	15.1
  Construction	10.4	Gross fixed capital formation	26.3
  Transport & communications	12.9	Exports of goods & services	56.9
  Government	12.0	Imports of goods & services	-74.6
  Total incl others	100.0	Total incl changes in stocks	100.0
  Principal exports 2011	US$ m	Principal imports cif 2011	US$ m
  Gold	517.1	Intermediate goods	376.2
  Sugar	123.4	Consumer goods	417.3
  Rice	173.2	Fuels & lubricants	573.0
  Bauxite & alumina	133.3	Capital goods	396.1
  Main destinations of exports 2011	% of total	Main origins of imports 2011	% of total
  Canada	33.7	US	22.6
  US	33.2	Trinidad and Tobago	21.2
  UK	5.7	China	8.8
  Trinidad and Tobago	5.0	Cuba	5.8
  a Economist Intelligence Unit estimates.

  Download the numbers in Excel

  Download text file (csv format)

  January 15, 2013

• Outlook

  Guyana: Country outlook

  Guyana: Country outlook

  FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT

  OVERVIEW: As the first minority government in Guyana's history, the People's Progressive Party/Civic (PPP/C) government, led by Donald Ramotar, will continue to face huge difficulties in implementing its agenda. The opposition will seek legislative concessions. If the government is not seen to negotiate in good faith, legislative deadlock and political instability could ensue and may ultimately force the government to call fresh elections. Assuming that his efforts are not scuppered by the opposition, Mr Ramotar will maintain efforts to secure substantial foreign development assistance via commitments to preserve the environment in Guyana's vast interior. Driven by high commodity prices and several large infrastructure and mining investments, prospects for macroeconomic performance will remain favourable. The construction of the massive Amaila Falls hydroelectric power plant will drive imports in the 2013-14 outlook period, resulting in a current-account deficit of above 12% of GDP in the 2013-14.

  DOMESTIC POLITICS: The basic division along ethnic lines between the ruling Indo-Guyanese PPP/C and Guyana's second political party, the mainly Afro-Guyanese People's National Congress-Reform (which is allied with a number of small parties under the banner of A Partnership for National Unity, or APNU)-which has marred political discourse since the 1950s-persists. However, Guyana's third party, the Alliance For Change (AFC), established as a vehicle for breaking ethnic voting patterns and bridging the divide between Guyana's two main ethnic groups, made a number of gains at the PPP/C's expense in the 2011 general election, giving the opposition the greatest number of seats in parliament. However, under Guyana's constitution, as the party with the most votes, the PPP/C won the right to form a government, and therefore retained its hold on power for a fifth consecutive term. Political instability will remain high following a July vote of no confidence against the home affairs minister, Clement Rohee, in the wake of the shooting deaths of three protesters. The opposition continues to refuse to co-operate with Mr Rohee in the National Assembly-as it has done since July-while it pushes for his resignation from government, most recently blocking a national-security reform programme proposed by him. Further legislative deadlock and an erosion of governability is likely to ensue. Ultimately, this could force the government to call a fresh election. It will be difficult for the Ramotar government to govern without calling an election before its official due date in 2016. On the face of it, none of Guyana's main political parties would appear to be eager to call a new election. The PPP/C will be wary of voter fatigue with the party's two decades in power, and with a lack of progress on key issues of concern, such as the rise in violent crime of recent years. APNU will, meanwhile, be aware that entrenched racial voting patterns favour the Indo-Guyanese PPP/C. The AFC will be in a particularly difficult position. It gained some traditional PPP/C votes at the November election (owing partly to the defection of a PPP/C politician to the party before the polls) and will be wary of losing these supporters by allying itself too closely with APNU. The AFC's leader, Raphael Trotman, has moreover become speaker of the Assembly, and will be keen to gain concessions in government, rather than risk losing power in a new election. However, in the event of legislative stalemate, and particularly if political tensions produce new violent demonstrations, the government may feel it has no choice but to call a snap election. In such an event, the Economist Intelligence Unit expects that the PPP/C would be best placed to regain its majority, as a result of ethnic voting patterns. However, if public momentum builds behind the concept of a national unity government, the possibility of a successful alliance between APNU and the AFC cannot be discounted.

  INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS: Guyana's relations with the 14-nation Caribbean Community will remain strong, despite disagreements with Barbados over migration issues. Its relationship with the US will be characterised by token co-operation on drug-trafficking and human rights. Trade and investment links with Brazil will strengthen, boosted by the opening of a major bridge linking the two countries in 2009. Political and economic relations with Venezuela will be strengthened following Guyana's decision to become an observer member of the leftist Venezuela-led Alternativa Bolivariana para las Americas (the Bolivarian Alternative for the Americas, a trade and integration pact). Efforts to improve relations with neighbouring Suriname have been given new impetus since the election of a new president there, Desiré (Desi) Bouterse. However, it remains unlikely that there will be progress on resolving the long-running border dispute.

  POLICY TRENDS: The Ramotar government's minority position calls into question its ability to make progress on key issues, such as improvements in implementing recent governance reforms (particularly procurement and financial monitoring) and enhancing competitiveness. With loan support from the Inter-American Development Bank, the government has a national competitiveness strategy in place, focusing on addressing weaknesses in infrastructure (particularly in roads, power, irrigation, sanitation and housing), the regulatory regime, tax and trade policy, and access to financing, among other areas. The government will also continue to push the previous administration's Low Carbon Development Strategy, under which Guyana will reduce emissions and deforestation in exchange for development assistance. The opposition will continue to seek to extract concessions from government in exchange for its support, and has its own priorities, such as a significant reduction in the value-added tax from its current rate of 16% to between 10% and 12%, and a widening of the tax base. We currently assume that the non-financial public-sector finances will remain in substantial deficit in 2013 and 2014, as large-scale public investment projects get under way, but there is a risk that some projects will face delays if budget negotiations stall. We also expect that, despite further debt relief, new multilateral and bilateral borrowing will continue apace. Rising debt-service payments will fuel concerns over the long-term fiscal and debt dynamics.

  ECONOMIC GROWTH: Following estimated real GDP growth of 3.3% in 2012, we expect economic growth to remain at above-trend levels in 2013-14 as gross fixed investment picks up on the back of several major mining investments and continuing work on a large hydroelectric project at Amaila Falls in western Guyana. Despite a relatively sluggish performance in 2012, we expect the sugar industry to be an important driver of growth in 2013-14 as a major new processing facility becomes fully operational-assuming that management issues can be overcome and global prices remain high by historical comparison. Flooding and other weather-related hazards will remain an ongoing risk to the sector (and to key agricultural commodities, such as rice, as well as to mining and other economic sectors). The other main risks to our GDP forecasts include domestic political instability and falling prices for Guyana's main export commodities.

  EXTERNAL ACCOUNT: The construction of the massive Amaila Falls hydroelectric power plant, scheduled to begin in 2013 (associated infrastructure work is already under way), will drive imports in 2013-14, resulting in a current-account deficit greater than 12% of GDP in this period. In the longer term, however, the project should reduce energy import dependence and help to narrow the current account. Foreign direct investment inflows-mainly stemming from several large private mining investments-will be sufficient to finance around one-half of the current-account deficit. The remainder will be covered by official debt flows.

  January 16, 2013

View detailed map

Country Briefing

Land area

214,969 sq km

Population

741,908 (2012 official estimate)

Main towns

Population in 2002 (census estimates):

Georgetown (capital): 213,705

Linden: 41,112

New Amsterdam: 18,480

Climate

Tropical

Weather in Georgetown (altitude 2 metres)

Hottest months, September and October, 24-31°C; coldest months, January and February, 23-29°C (average daily minimum and maximum); driest month, October, 76 mm average rainfall; wettest month, June, 302 mm average rainfall

Languages

English, often spoken in a strongly marked Creole dialect; Amerindian languages are also used widely in the interior

Measures

Conversion to metric system is now officially complete, but US and Imperial units remain in common use; also Rhynland acre=0.4 ha=1.1 acres

Currency

1 Guyana dollar (G$) = 100 cents

Time

4 hours behind GMT

Public holidays

January 1st; February 23rd (Republic Day); Phagwah (a) (usually March); Good Friday (a); Easter Monday (a); May 1st (Labour day); May 26th (Independence Day); First Monday in July (Caricom Day); August 1st (Emancipation Day); December 25th and 26th; Youm un Nabi (a); Deepavalia (Diwali, usually November)

(a) The dates of these public holidays depend on religious calendars and differ from year to year.

January 15, 2013