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Greece

Politics:

  • Analysis

    Greece politics: Corruption and tax evasion fuel Greece's economic decline

    Corruption and tax evasion are endemic in Greece. There has been a general perception that politicians have been immune from prosecution. Members of parliament (MPs) enjoy parliamentary immunity, which must be lifted by parliament before they can face a trial. Moreover, the constitution limits liability of ministers to two years after the parliament in which they served; hence, many allegations have not been pursued in the courts because of the statute of limitations. This has caused deep resentment among an electorate that is bearing the brunt of austerity. However, politicians and the judiciary have stepped up efforts to crack down on the culture of impunity in politics, business and the civil service.

    Bribery is widespread. So-called fakelakia ("envelopes") are necessary to secure everything from a driver's licence to a higher place on a state hospital waiting list. It is alleged that political parties have accepted campaign contributions and ministers kickbacks in order to secure government procurement contracts.

    Meanwhile, tax evasion is rife, with only those having tax deducted at source paying the full charge. Companies and the self-employed have been notorious for under-reporting income. If audited, a commonplace settlement was said to be 4-4-2: 40% going to the inspector, 40% remaining with the company or individual and just 20% being paid to the Exchequer.

    Courts crack down on embezzlement

    Judicial authorities have been cracking down on embezzlement by politicians and businesspeople. In the past three weeks, two high-profile prosecutions have concluded.

    • Vassilis Papageorgopoulos, former mayor of the major northern Greek city Thessaloniki (1999-2010), was sentenced to life imprisonment for embezzlement of nearly EUR18m from the public works budget.
    • Akis Tsohadzopoulos, former minister of defence for the centre-left Panhellenic Socialist Movement (Pasok) was sentenced to eight years' imprisonment for filing incomplete declarations of wealth, forms which must be completed by some 50,000 people in public life including politicians, civil servants, jurists and journalists. In addition, he was fined EUR520,000, had property assets with a taxable value of EUR18.5m temporarily seized and told he could not appeal. Mr Tsohadzopoulos faces another trial in April (together with 18 other defendants, including his wife) for alleged acceptance and laundering of bribes associated with military procurements.

    Other investigations under way

    On March 6th, the Athens prosecutor's office filed charges, again for wealth declaration irregularities, against three former cabinet ministers: former minister of finance Yannos Papantoniou (Pasok), ex-deputy finance minister Petros Doukas from the centre-right New Democracy (ND) and former minister of public order Georgios Voulgarakis (also ND). A parliamentary committee is probing the handling by a former finance minister, George Papaconstantinou, of a list of over 2,000 people with bank accounts in Switzerland provided to him by Christine Lagarde in 2010 when she was French finance minister (now head of the IMF).

    Moreover, 11 men who in 2007 sat on the board of directors of the Public Power Corporation (DEI) have been charged with breach of duty for signing a contract to commission a power plant that subsequently lost the company some EUR100m. Three of those directors, who were in public posts when the charges were laid on March 8th, have denied any wrongdoing but resigned pending the outcome of investigations. They were Takis Athanasopoulos, former chief executive of DEI, who was serving as head of the state privatisation agency, and board members Georgios Mergos and Spyros Efstathopoulos, general secretaries at the ministries of finance and development, respectively. Meanwhile, 10 people who between 2008 and 2009 sat on the board of AMEL, the company which runs the Athens Metro, face felony charges in connection with a series of illegal hirings.

    Banking secrecy ends for suspects in tax evasion cases

    As far as the tax evasion issue is concerned, the state has repeatedly failed to meet budget revenue projections through political interference, lax collection and inadequate auditing. In order to combat the problem, the General Secretariat for Revenues (GGDE) has been made virtually autonomous, answering only to the finance minister himself. It is to have its own budget and assume responsibility for the Financial Crimes Investigation Unit (SDOE), an armed squad modelled on the FBI, with powers to combat all forms of tax evasion from smuggling to fraudulent accounting. The first head of the restructured GGDE is Haris Theocharis, who also heads the General Secretariat for Information Systems (GGPS) that operates the digital Taxis network for electronic payment of tax. Links have been established with banks and from March 19th the SDOE will have automatic access to the bank accounts of companies and individuals under investigation.

    Targets set to collect arrears

    Hard data are difficult to come by but the state is said to be owed some EUR50bn in outstanding tax, of which EUR13bn might be collectable. The government committed itself under the EU/IMF bail-out programme to try to collect EUR1.9bn, but this year's budget targets a sum of arrears of just EUR1.2bn. A special department has been created at the Ministry of Finance to pursue the 1,500 largest cases of outstanding arrears, either of tax or of contributions to state-subsidised social security funds. The authorities are committed to conduct full audits of the 750 largest enterprises by year-end. Last year, the ministry managed to collect EUR1.1bn but found that nearly 40% of the firms and individuals pursued were bankrupt, while in many cases no assets could be linked to those responsible. In recent months, dozens of merchants, businesspeople and professionals with outstanding obligations of EUR500,000 or more have been arrested. Most have been fined but allowed to negotiate payment over time with penalties.

    A major problem has been a lack of qualified staff and resources. A 106-page report submitted to the finance ministry in January by technical staff attached to the troika of EU/IMF invigilators revealed that some employees of the office responsible for controlling large enterprises did not even have their own desks or computers and their number was sorely inadequate. On March 10th, the ministry authorised the appointment of 4,091 new staff to help in the cross-checking process, although it is understood that most of these will come from other public-sector positions under a staff reduction "mobility" scheme and will require training before they can begin their new task.

    According to a press account, the finance ministry's internal affairs department has found evidence that 130 tax inspectors are among persons discovered to hold foreign bank accounts, while the SDOE appears to be cautious about bringing prosecutions. The deputy Supreme Court prosecutor who heads the authority against money laundering told a parliamentary committee on February 27th that he had investigated 3,191 cases last year and prepared case files in 497 instances. Of these, he said only 279 were referred to a prosecutor. Hence, despite the progress made in recent months, rapid improvements in tax collection and in reducing instances of tax evasion are unlikely in the short term.

    March 19, 2013

  • Background

    Greece: Political forces at a glance

    Political outlook: Political forces at a glance

    The centre-right New Democracy (ND) party, led by Antonis Samaras, won a narrow victory at the general election in June 2012 and holds 129 out of 300 seats in parliament; the June election was a repeat of the May 2012 election, which had been inconclusive. Thanks to support from ND's traditional centre-left rival, the Panhellenic Socialist Movement (Pasok), with 33 seats, and a small party, the Democratic Left (DIMAR), with 17, the government holds 179 seats in parliament. The next general election is not scheduled until 2016, but the fragile nature of the coalition government makes an early election likely. The Economist Intelligence Unit believes that an early election will take place by 2014, by which time Greece will have to restructure some of its public debt again and receive another international bail-out if the country is to avoid euro exit. Ongoing fiscal austerity will entrench economic hardship and increase the likelihood that the next election will be won by anti-austerity forces, especially Syriza Unifying Social Front (Syriza; previously known as the Coalition of the Radical Left), which almost won the two snap elections in May and June 2012.

    General election resultsa
     2009 May 2012 Jun 2012 
    Party% of voteNo. of seats% of voteNo. of seats% of voteNo. of seats
    New Democracy (ND)33.59118.910829.7129
    Syriza Unifying Social Front (Syriza)b4.61316.85226.971
    Panhellenic Socialist Movement (Pasok)43.916013.24112.333
    Independent Greeks (AE)--10.6337.520
    Golden Dawn (XA)0.3-7.0216.918
    Democratic Left (DIMAR)--6.1196.317
    Communist Party of Greece (KKE)7.5218.5264.512
    Popular Orthodox Rally (LAOS)5.6152.9-1.60
    Others4.5-16.1-4.3-
    Total100300100300100300
    a The current electoral law was used for the first time in the May 2012 election and gives the winning party a 50-seat bonus in parliament. b Syriza Unifying Social Front (Syriza) was formed in May 2012 and is the successor to the Coalition of the Radical Left (SyRizA), which contested previous elections.
    Source: Ministry of the Interior.

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    July 27, 2012

  • Structure

    Greece: Political structure

    Official name

    Hellenic Republic

    Legal system

    Based on the constitution of 1975

    National legislature

    Unicameral Vouli (parliament) of 300 members, which is directly elected by a form of proportional representation for a four-year term, although early dissolution is possible.

    Electoral system

    Universal direct suffrage over the age of 18

    National elections

    June 17th 2012 (legislative). The next legislative election is not scheduled until 2016, but the fragile nature of the current coalition government makes an early election by 2014 likely.

    Head of state

    President, without executive powers, elected by parliament for a five-year term. Karolos Papoulias, a former foreign minister from the centre-left Panhellenic Socialist Movement (Pasok), was elected on March 12th 2010. The president must be elected by a three-fifths majority of parliament. If this is not possible, parliament is dissolved, an election held and the president can be elected by a simple majority of deputies in the new house.

    National government

    Council of Ministers responsible to the legislature, headed by a prime minister appointed by the president on the basis of ability to gain support in parliament. On June 20th 2012, Antonis Samaras from the centre-right New Democracy (ND) party was sworn in as prime minister. ND is the senior partner in a coalition government with Pasok and the small Democratic Left (DIMAR) party. However, the cabinet consists entirely of ND members and independent technocrats.

    Main political parties

    New Democracy (ND); Syriza Unifying Social Front (Syriza); Panhellenic Socialist Movement (Pasok); Independent Greeks (AE); Golden Dawn (XA); Democratic Left (DIMAR) and Communist Party of Greece (KKE).

    Key ministers

    Prime minister: Antonis Samaras (ND)

    Administrative reform & e-governance: Antonis Manitakis (Indep.)

    Development, competitiveness & transport: Kostis Hatzidakis (ND)

    Education, religious affairs, culture & sport: Konstantinos Arvanitopoulos (ND)

    Environment, energy & climate change: Evangelos Livieratos (Indep.)

    Finance: Yannis Stournaras (Indep.)

    Foreign affairs: Dimitris Avramopoulos (ND)

    Health: Andreas Lykourentzos (ND)

    Interior: Evripidis Stylianidis (ND)

    Justice, transparency & human rights: Antonis Roupakiotis (Indep.)

    Labour, social security & welfare: Giannis Vroutsis (ND)

    Macedonia–Thrace: Thodoris Karaoglou (ND)

    National defence: Panos Panagiotopoulos (ND)

    Public order & citizen protection: Nikos Dendias (ND)

    Rural development & food: Athanasios Tsaftaris (Indep.)

    Shipping: Kostas Mousouroulis (ND)

    Tourism: Olga Kefalogianni (ND)

    Minister of state: Dimitris Stamatis (ND)

    Government spokesman: Simos Kedikoglou (ND)

    Central bank governor

    Giorgos Provopoulos

    March 18, 2013

  • Outlook

    Greece: Key developments

    Outlook for 2013-17

    • A fragile three-party coalition led by the centre-right New Democracy (ND) took office after the election on June 17th 2012. The Economist Intelligence Unit expects the coalition to fall by 2014, leading to a new election.
    • In the context of an economic depression, soaring unemployment and rising anti-austerity sentiment among the electorate, there is a high probability that the left-wing Syriza party could come first in the next election.
    • The country's debt sustainability remains suspect despite a restructuring of Greek public debt held by the private sector and the easing of terms for debt held by the official sector in 2012. Another debt restructuring is likely in 2014.
    • Political instability, social unrest and economic hardship could trigger a disorderly debt default and an exit from the euro area. We assign a 40% risk to Greece leaving the euro zone in 2013-17.
    • If Greece stays in the euro area, economic policy will remain guided by the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) agreed with its international creditors, focusing on deep austerity and structural reforms.
    • We forecast that real GDP will fall by 5% in 2013 and 1.5% in 2014 (after a 6.4% drop in 2012), followed by average growth of 1.9% in 2015-17.
    • From an average rate of 1% in 2012, we expect inflation to fall to zero in 2013 and rise mildly to 0.7% in 2014, before averaging 1.4% in 2015-17.

    Review

    • Four members of parliament previously expelled by one of the two junior government coalition parties, the Panhellenic Socialist Movement (Pasok), have returned to Pasok's fold, boosting the coalition's parliamentary majority.
    • The Pasok party congress confirmed Evangelos Venizelos as leader. However, Mr Venizelos' appeal for the creation of a centre-left alliance to ease austerity has fallen on stony ground.
    • Parliament approved an updated medium-term fiscal strategy for 2013-16 that foresees a primary budget surplus of 3.2% of GDP in 2016. The country's EU lenders subsequently released the February bail-out loan tranche of EUR2.8bn.
    • Economic data remained weak. For example, industrial output fell by 0.5% year on year in December 2012, retail trade volumes declined by 8.5% year on year in December and real GDP fell by 5.7% year on year in the fourth quarter.
    • Consumer price inflation (EU harmonised) fell to zero in January 2013. This was the country's lowest inflation rate since joining the euro in 2001.
    • External rebalancing continued, with the current-account deficit falling to EUR5.6bn (2.9% of GDP) in 2012, compared with EUR20.6bn (9.9% of GDP) in 2011.

    March 18, 2013

Economy:

  • Background

    Greece: Country fact sheet

    Fact sheet

    Annual data2012aHistorical averages (%)2008-12
    Population (m)11.4Population growth0.3
    GDP (US$ bn; market exchange rate)249.1bReal GDP growth-4.4
    GDP (US$ bn; purchasing power parity)282.0bReal domestic demand growth-6.4
    GDP per head (US$; market exchange rate)21,813Inflation3.0
    GDP per head (US$; purchasing power parity)24,691Current-account balance (% of GDP)-9.8
    Exchange rate (av) €:US$0.8bFDI inflows (% of GDP)0.6
    a The Economist Intelligence Unit estimates. b Actual.

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    Background: After 400 years of Ottoman rule, Greece emerged as a nation state in 1830. A devastating civil war followed the retreat of German occupying forces in 1944. The rebuilding of the shattered economy was launched with Marshall Plan aid, but left-right antagonism persisted. Between 1967 and 1974 a military junta ruled the country, but since then a democracy has been in place. In 1981 Greece joined the European Community, now the EU. It became a member of economic and monetary union (EMU) at the start of 2001. However, it was given undue leniency in compliance with public finance conditions. Its rising debt has proved unsustainable and put Greece's continued membership of EMU in question.

    Political structure: Greece is a parliamentary republic. The prime minister and the government hold executive powers. The president is elected by the 300-member parliament to serve a five-year term. The government must have the support of parliament to hold office. Following the general election on June 17th 2012, seven political parties are currently represented in parliament: the centre-right New Democracy (ND), Syriza Unifying Social Front (Syriza), the centre-left Panhellenic Socialist Movement (Pasok), the nationalist Independent Greeks (AE), the neo-Fascist Golden Dawn (XA), the Democratic Left (DIMAR) and the Communist Party of Greece (KKE). After the election, a coalition government consisting of ND, Pasok and DIMAR was formed, led by the ND prime minister, Antonis Samaras. The government mainly comprises ND ministers plus several technocrats, as Pasok and DIMAR refused to participate in the cabinet.

    Policy issues: The primary focus of the new government is to cut the fiscal deficit and public debt and improve the business environment to make economic recovery possible. The dire condition of the public finances and a consequent weakening of the banking sector put continued euro membership at risk. The previous two governments and the current one have imposed successive draconian austerity packages. They have also in principle made sweeping structural economic reforms to meet the conditionality attached to two bail-out packages totalling EUR240bn from euro zone governments and the troika of the European Commission, European Central Bank (ECB) and IMF. However, implementing these reforms has so far proved difficult. In 2012, Greek public debt held by the private sector was restructured.

    Taxation: The tax rate on corporate profits is 26% and that on distributed dividends is 10%. The basic top rate for personal income tax is 42% for income over EUR42,000. Value-added tax (VAT) is levied at rates of 23%, 11% and 5.5%.

    Foreign trade: In 2012 goods exports (fob) were worth EUR22bn and imports (cif) EUR41.6bn, according to the Bank of Greece (the central bank). The current-account deficit was EUR5.6bn (2.9% of GDP; substantially down from a peak of 14.9% in 2008).

    Major exports 2011% of totalMajor imports 2011% of total
    Mineral fuels etc30.0Mineral fuels etc27.2
    Manufactured goods25.4Manufactured goods21.6
    Food & live animals14.2Machinery, transport equipment18.5
    Chemicals & related products10.3Chemicals & related products15.8
     
    Leading markets 2011% of totalLeading suppliers 2011% of total
    Germany9.6Germany10.7
    Italy8.0Italy9.3
    UK7.9Russia9.2
    Bulgaria6.2South Korea5.7

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    March 19, 2013

  • Structure

    Greece: Economic structure

    Data and charts: Annual trends charts


    March 18, 2013

  • Outlook

    Greece: Country outlook

    Greece: Country outlook

    FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT

    POLITICAL STABILITY: A general election on May 6th 2012 produced a highly fragmented parliament that was unable to form a government, necessitating a new election, which was held on June 17th 2012. That repeat election was won by the centre-right New Democracy (ND) led by Antonis Samaras, ahead of the left-wing Syriza Unifying Social Front (Syriza). The two traditional mainstream parties that have governed Greece since 1974, ND and the centre-left Panhellenic Socialist Movement (Pasok), lost a significant share of the vote at the May election, although ND then regained some support as many voters feared that a Syriza victory could lead to a Greek euro exit. There is broad public discontent with the corruption, cronyism and vested interests associated with Pasok and ND. Nonetheless, the two parties were able to form a coalition government after the June 2012 election, along with the small Democratic Left (DIMAR).

    ELECTION WATCH: Despite defections, the coalition government still has a majority in parliament (167 seats out of 300), boosted by the return of four previously ousted Pasok members of parliament (MPs) in February 2013. However, Pasok and DIMAR are unreliable partners for the ND-led government. Evangelos Venizelos remained Pasok leader after a party congress in early March 2013--despite considerable internal resistance to his leadership--but his proposal for a centre-left alliance with DIMAR was rejected. Both Pasok and DIMAR have seen their ratings collapse in opinion polls because of their support for the harsh austerity agenda. Mr Venizelos' politicking puts at risk the future of the coalition.

    INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS: Greece's international standing will remain fragile, given its dependence on EU/IMF loans. There is a significant risk that it will come into conflict with its creditors, leading to a disorderly default and departure from the euro zone. The Economist Intelligence Unit believes that, in the eventuality of the country leaving the euro zone, it would still be possible for Greece to remain a member of the EU, although temporary derogations from EU rules on the free movement of capital would be needed.

    POLICY TRENDS: Greece faces a harsh choice. It can continue down the road directed by its EU/IMF creditors, which has so far caused an ever-deeper depression with rapidly rising unemployment (especially among young people), widespread corporate bankruptcy and increasing homelessness and deprivation. Or it can risk a step into the unknown and a partial breakdown of the economic system (at least in the short term) through a disorderly default, probably followed by a collapse of the banking system, requiring a new national currency to revive it.

    ECONOMIC GROWTH: From its pre-crisis peak in the third quarter of 2007 to its latest trough in the fourth quarter of 2012, the Greek economy contracted by more than 26%. After five years of depression (including a 6.4% contraction in real GDP in 2012), we expect the economy to contract further, by 5% in 2013 and 1.5% in 2014. The economy should then recover from 2015, boosted by foreign trade (with weak imports because of depressed domestic demand and stronger exports as demand in key trade partners in the EU recovers) as well as by returning business and consumer confidence following the expected OSI. Serious downside risks remain, however. This forecast assumes that OSI occurs in 2014 and that Greece remains in the euro zone.

    INFLATION: After muted inflation of 1% in 2012 (EU harmonised measure), we expect stagnating consumer prices (0%) in 2013 and low inflation (0.7%) in 2014, before a slight acceleration in 2015-17 (to average 1.4%). In February 2013 inflation stood at 0.1%. Weak domestic demand and lower wages across the public and private sectors will continue to put downward pressure on inflation. We expect external price pressures to be only moderate, as we forecast that the oil price in 2013 will be lower than in 2012.

    EXCHANGE RATES: The euro has strengthened since mid-2012 as the debt crisis in the single currency zone has eased and as global risk tolerance has increased. The euro reached US$1.37:EUR1 in late January 2013 before retreating to US$1.30:EUR1 in mid-March. The euro's appreciation will be capped by continuing weakness in euro zone economies, as well as stronger growth in the US. We expect the exchange rate to average US$1.33:EUR1 in 2013 and US$1.28:EUR1 in 2014-17, although there is a significant risk of sharp movements either way. In the medium term, the possibility of a break-up of the euro zone cannot be dismissed.

    EXTERNAL SECTOR: With austerity measures sharply cutting domestic demand and imports for most of the forecast period, we expect Greece's current-account balance to improve further, from a deficit of 2.9% of GDP in 2012 to an average surplus of 2.1% of GDP in 2015-17.

    March 25, 2013

  • Forecast

    Greece: Country forecast summary

    Country forecast overview: Highlights

    • Greece's debt sustainability remains suspect despite a restructuring of Greek public debt held by the private sector and the easing of terms for debt held by the official sector in 2012. Greece still faces an unenviable choice of either continuing a severe fiscal austerity programme, in return for bail-out funds from international creditors, or defaulting on its sovereign debt. The Economist Intelligence Unit expects Greece and its creditors to negotiate another orderly debt restructuring in 2014, this time involving debt held by official creditors. A "disorderly" (chaotic) default would probably trigger a collapse of the banking system and euro exit. We assign a 40% risk to Greece leaving the euro by 2017.
    • A three-party coalition government led by the centre-right New Democracy (ND) took office after the election on June 17th 2012. The coalition is fragile and political instability is likely to persist. The coalition includes two centre-left parties, the Panhellenic Socialist Movement (Pasok) and the Democratic Left (DIMAR), but both Pasok and DIMAR refused to participate in the cabinet (which consists mainly of ND ministers and some technocrats). The Economist Intelligence Unit expects the coalition to fall by 2014, leading to a new election. The left-wing, anti-austerity Syriza party may come first in a snap election but lacks potential coalition partners. We expect ND to lead the next government.
    • For most or all of the forecast period, unless Greece leaves the euro zone, economic policy will be dictated by the troika―the European Commission, the European Central Bank (ECB) and the IMF―which indirectly represents the creditor countries. The government is implementing an agenda of severe fiscal tightening to meet the terms of the medium-term fiscal strategy. However, it will find this increasingly difficult to implement against a backdrop of political instability, intensifying social unrest and deepening economic depression.
    • Following five years of depression (including a 6.4% contraction in real GDP in 2012), we expect the economy to contract further, by 5% in 2013 and 1.5% in 2014. It should then recover from 2015, driven by foreign trade as well as returning business and consumer confidence (following another expected debt restructuring in 2014). However, in the event of a disorderly default and euro exit, demand would be likely to fall even more sharply in the short term, with uncertain recovery prospects thereafter.
    • From a rate of 1% in 2012, we expect inflation to fall to zero in 2013 and then rise mildly to 0.7% in 2014, before averaging 1.4% in 2015-17.

    Country forecast overview: Key indicators

    Key indicators201220132014201520162017
    Real GDP growth (%)-6.4-5.0-1.50.82.62.4
    Consumer price inflation (av, %; EU harmonised measure)1.00.00.71.21.41.6
    Government balance (% of GDP)-6.6-5.0-3.5-2.1-0.9-0.1
    Current-account balance (% of GDP)-2.9-0.80.81.92.42.0
    Commercial banks' prime rate (av; %)7.37.27.57.77.97.8
    Exchange rate US$:€ (av)1.291.331.311.271.261.26
    Exchange rate US$:€ (year-end)1.311.321.311.261.261.26
    Exchange rate ¥:€ (av)102.87123.36124.03122.24122.85121.71

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    March 19, 2013

Greece

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Country Briefing

Land area

131,957 sq km

Population

10.79m (2011 census)

Main cities

Population in '000 (2011 census):

 Greater Athens (capital): 3,812

 Thessaloniki: 1,104

 Patras & district: 311

 Iraklion & district: 304

 Larisa & district: 284

Climate

Mediterranean

Weather in Athens (altitude 107 metres)

Hottest month, July, 18-41°C; coldest month, January, 0-18°C (1997 data); driest month, July, no rainfall; wettest month, March 164 mm rainfall

Language

Greek

Weights and measures

Metric system

Currency

Euro (€)=100 cents

Time

2 hours ahead of GMT in winter; 3 hours ahead in summer

Public holidays

January 1st; January 6th; March 2nd; March 25th; April 17th; April 19th; April 20th; May 1st; June 7th; June 8th; August 15th; October 28th; December 25th; December 26th


January 01, 2013

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