Equatorial Guinea

Politics:

• Analysis

  Equatorial Guinea politics: Quick View - Regime kicks off election campaign

  Event

  Led by the president, Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo, the ruling Partido Democrático de Guinea Ecuatorial (PDGE) kicked off its election campaign in the city of Luba on Bioko Island ahead of the municipal and legislative polls scheduled for May 26th.

  Analysis

  The elections will complete the constitutional reform process that began with the adoption of a new constitution following its approval in a widely criticised referendum in November 2011. The new constitution, which introduces a bicameral parliament, was presented by the regime as a major effort to strengthen democracy and improve governance in the country. However, it has entrenched the unchecked powers of the president, and the upcoming polls are likely to further reinforce the influence of Mr Obiang Nguema and his allies. The president will appoint 15 of the 75 members of the new Senate, and the electoral process is firmly controlled by the regime through the Ministry of the Interior. Human rights groups have called for major electoral reforms, but so far there have been few indications that the May elections will be any different from previous polls, all of which have been marred by major irregularities, fraud and intimidation of opposition supporters.

  The remaining 60 seats in the Senate will be up for grabs but, owing to the highly uneven playing-field-the opposition is regularly harassed and several political activists have been detained in the past year-the new chamber appears set to become little more than a tool to allow regime allies to access the wealth and power that a senatorial post brings. Mr Obiang Nguema has resisted persistent calls from civil society, diaspora and international human rights groups to open up the political space and loosen restrictions on democratic freedoms. Backed by buoyant oil revenue, the regime is expected to retain its monopoly over the country's political affairs.

  March 22, 2013

• Background

  Equatorial Guinea: Key figures

  Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo

  President since 1979. A member of the majority Fang tribe from the mainland region of Rio Muni, he exercises power through a mixture of repression and an extensive patronage network. Despite periodic rumours about a possible chronic illness, Mr Obiang has already declared that he will seek re-election in 2009.

  Teodoro Nguema Obiang Mangue ("Teodorin")

  Mr Obiang's eldest son and the minister of agriculture and forestry. He has been able to build substantial support among the urban youth through a range of populist measures. Although there are rumours that he is being groomed to succeed his father, he is regarded as unpredictable and dangerous by other members of his family and the regime.

  Gabriel Nguema Lima

  The president's second son and the deputy minister for minerals and energy. He is considered a competent technocrat, but lacks a political constituency in the country, partly because his mother is from Sao Tome and Principe.

  Ignacio Milam Tang

  A close ally of the president and currently the prime minister, he has held several cabinet positions in the past and is a former ambassador to Spain. His consensual approach is expected to be less irritating for the members of the old guard than the technocratic methods of his predecessor, Ricardo Nfubea Mangue. His executive powers are limited, as decision power remains with Mr Obiang.

  Armengol Nguema Mba

  Director of national security and the president's brother. He can claim the support of the country's fearsome security establishment.

  Placido Miko Abogo

  Leader of the only opposition party with representation in the National Assembly, Convergencia para la Democracia Social (CPDS). A veteran politician who has been arrested in several occasions, he has some support among the urban population and his home town in Rio Muni province.

  December 23, 2008

• Structure

  Equatorial Guinea: Political structure

  Official name

  República de Guinea Ecuatorial

  Form of state

  Unitary republic

  Legal system

  Based on the constitution approved by referendum in November 1991

  National legislature

  Cámara de Representantes del Pueblo, with 100 members elected by universal suffrage, who serve a five-year term

  National elections

  November 2009 (presidential) and May 2008 (legislative); next elections due in November 2016 (presidential) and May 2013 (legislative); however, polls in the country are flawed to the point of being meaningless

  Head of state

  President, elected by universal suffrage; currently Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo

  National government

  President and the Council of Ministers, headed by the prime minister; ministers are appointed by the president; a new government was appointed in May 2012

  Main political parties

  Partido Democrático de Guinea Ecuatorial (PDGE), the ruling party; there are 12 other registered parties; most support the presidency, including the Convención Liberal Democrática (CLD) and the Union Democrática Socialista (UDS); the Convergencia para la Democracia Social (CPDS), the Unión Popular (UP) and the Acción Popular de Guinea Ecuatorial (APGE) oppose the presidency; the Partido del Progreso operates unofficially in exile, while the Fuerza Democrática Republicana (FDR) and the Movimiento para la Autodeterminación de la Isla de Bioko (MAIB) operate clandestinely

  Key ministers

  Prime minister: Vincenté Ehaté Tomi

  First vice-president (presidential affairs): Ignacio Milam Tang

  Second vice-president (national defence & security): "Teodorìn" Nguema Obiang Mangue

  First deputy prime minister & interior: Clementé Engonga Nguema Onguene

  Second deputy prime minister & human rights: Alfonso Nsue Mokuy

  Secretary-general at the presidency: Tomás Esono Ava

  Agriculture & forestry: Miguel Oyono Ndong Mifumu

  Civil cabinet: Braulio Ncogo Abegue

  Defence: Antonio Mba Nguema

  Economy & trade: Celestino Bonifacio Bakale Obiang

  Education & science: Maria del Carmen Ekoro

  Finance & budget: Marcelino Owono Edu

  Fisheries & environment: Crescencio Tamarite Castano

  Foreign affairs & international co-operation: Agapito Mba Mokuy

  Health & social welfare: Tomas Mecheba Fernandez

  Information, press & radio: Agustin Nze Nfumu

  Justice, religious affairs & prisons: Francisco Javier Ngomo Mbengono

  Labour & social security: Miguel Abia Biteo Borico

  Mines, industry & energy: Gabriel Mbega Obiang Lima

  National security: Nicolas Obama Nchama

  Planning, development & investment: Conrado Okenve Ndoho

  Public service & administrative reform: Purificacion Buari Lasaquero

  Public works & infrastructure: Juan Nko Mbula

  Transport, technology, post & telecommunications: Fransisco Mba Ola Bahamonde

  Governor of the regional central bank (BEAC)

  Lucas Abaga Nchama

  January 15, 2013

• Outlook

  Equatorial Guinea: Key developments

  Outlook for 2013-17

  • The major threat to political stability in 2013-17 is the risk of the elderly president, Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo, leaving office suddenly, owing to either ill health or a coup, which could create a destabilising power contest.
  • The difficult business environment, which constrains private-sector investment, is expected to persist; in particular, corruption among officials will remain rampant.
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit expects the fiscal account to remain in surplus, underpinned by rising hydrocarbons output; oil and gas receipts form the bulk of government revenue.
  • Decelerating growth in investment and oil output means that GDP growth will slow to 6.5% in 2013. Growth will remain robust in 2014, before slowing further in 2015-17 as hydrocarbons production begins to level off.
  • Despite robust growth boosting demand and thus generating inflationary pressures, subdued global commodity prices will help to reduce average annual inflation to 5.7% in 2013-17.
  • The current-account deficit is forecast to narrow from 1.2% of GDP in 2013 to 0.8% in 2014 on the back of rising oil output, before widening in 2015-17 as service imports and profit repatriation by oil firms grow.

  Review

  • A series of arrests targeting human rights and opposition activists raised fears of a clampdown on political freedom ahead of the country's legislative election, expected to be held during the first half of 2013.
  • The government presented a near-balanced budget for 2013 to parliament. It envisages a 16% cut in spending, but the country's budgets tend to be conservative and a poor indicator of actual spending.
  • The fiscal account is expected to remain in surplus in 2013 on the back of higher oil revenue, although poor fiscal discipline will continue to pose risks.
  • A new 120-mw hydropower plant was inaugurated in mainland Equatorial Guinea as part of the regime's economic diversification policy. If consumption levels are to rise, transmission networks will need to be extended.
  • Equatorial Guinea has been connected to the Africa Coast to Europe (ACE) fibre-optic network in an effort to boost broadband services. Nevertheless, the cost of Internet access will remain out of reach for most EquatoGuineans.
  • Ophir Energy, a UK-based oil and gas company, plans to construct a new liquefied natural gas plant following a series of gas discoveries on its offshore block, thus confirming the growth potential of the country's gas sector.

  January 15, 2013

Economy:

• Background

  Equatorial Guinea: Economic background

  Real gross domestic product by sector
  (% share of GDP)
  	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007
  Agriculture	4.6	3.1	2.9	3.1	2.9
  Industry	89.2	92.0	92.6	92.0	92.3
  Services	6.2	4.9	4.5	4.9	4.8
  Source: Economist Intelligence Unit.

  Download text file (csv format)

  The rapid growth of the oil sector has reduced the contribution of agriculture, forestry and fishing to just 3% of GDP in 2007 (compared with 46.2% of GDP in 1995). Despite the development of services associated with the oil industry and an expanding government sector, the tertiary sector is marginal, at 5% of GDP. Growth in the construction sector has been in double digits for the past ten years, but the sector still represents only 1% of GDP.

  December 23, 2008

• Structure

  Equatorial Guinea: Economic structure

  Data and charts: Annual trends charts

  
  

  

  January 15, 2013

• Outlook

  Equatorial Guinea: Country outlook

  Equatorial Guinea: Country outlook

  FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT

  POLITICAL STABILITY: After 33 years in office, the president, Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo, is expected to retain his grip on power throughout the forecast period. Parliamentary scrutiny of the executive will remain lacking, while repression by the security services, including the harassment of opposition leaders, will prevent the extra-parliamentary opposition from mobilising popular support. Continued crackdowns on dissent, including a number of recent arrests targeting prominent human rights and political activists, are indicative of official determination to prevent the opposition from making its voice heard by a wider audience. Meanwhile, recent constitutional reforms have reinforced the influence of the president and his family over the government, legislature, judiciary and military. Mr Obiang Nguema will consequently remain the pivotal figure on the political scene.

  ELECTION WATCH: Elections in Equatorial Guinea are flawed to the point of being meaningless. The next presidential poll is due in November 2016, and whether Mr Obiang Nguema decides to stand or hand over to his son will partly depend on the president's health, as well as how his son performs in his role as vice-president. The next legislative election is--in principle--scheduled for May 2013. However, the early completion of the voter registration process in September 2012 suggests that the legislative poll could be held slightly earlier than expected. Opposition parties suffer intimidation and exclusion from state-owned media, and therefore pose little threat to the PDGE. Given the high levels of political repression and electoral irregularities under his rule, the election results are a foregone conclusion unless Mr Obiang Nguema dies or is forcibly ousted from power before the polls are held.

  INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS: Most of the world's major economies will continue to seek long-term energy resources, and Equatorial Guinea will take advantage of this competition. US companies dominate the country's hydrocarbons industry, but firms from Russia and China are expanding their presence. China has become a particularly important ally, and its policy of "non-interference" in domestic political affairs, as well as the provision of significant credit lines, has enabled it to secure contracts for its companies in the hydrocarbons and construction sectors. Spain will maintain its historical political and economic links, although its current economic woes may result in lower investment inflows in 2013-17. In response to a French prosecutor's recent issuance of an international arrest warrant against Teodorìn, on money-laundering charges, the EquatoGuinean government has threatened to retaliate against French interests in the country. As a result, commercial and political links between the two countries could deteriorate. Mr Obiang Nguema will continue to seek close relations with the two major regional powers, Nigeria and Angola, in an effort to broaden Equatorial Guinea's network of allies and improve security in the Gulf of Guinea. Despite efforts to improve the regime's image abroad, a poor human rights record and repeated corruption allegations against senior officials will continue to act as barriers to the acceptance of Mr Obiang Nguema and his regime in Western diplomatic circles.

  POLICY TRENDS: Policy in 2013-17 will be guided in principle by the government's medium-term strategy paper, the National Economic Development Plan: Horizon 2020, which targets economic diversification and poverty reduction. However, progress is expected to remain slow. The difficult business environment, which constrains private-sector investment, is expected to persist; in particular, corruption among officials will remain rampant. Given this deterrent to private investment, the government will seek to drive economic diversification by investing state funds in strategic sectors such as fisheries, agriculture and eco-tourism. However, in addition to the unappealing business environment, other factors will hamper efforts towards diversification, including the tiny size of the domestic market, weak administrative capacity and resistance to reform among senior officials who profit from oil receipts. The economy will remain heavily dependent on developments in the hydrocarbons sector, and the government is seeking to boost foreign investment in its energy sector. A new bidding round, with a view to establishing at least ten new production-sharing contracts with international oil companies, was launched in 2012. Although the results are not yet known, the previous licensing round was cancelled after the authorities sought to negotiate the blocks directly rather than award them on a competitive basis; the continued lack of transparency risks deterring investors. Moreover, if the latest round is to prove successful, the government will need to ensure that the terms are sufficiently attractive, particularly given speculation that the recent announcement by a Spanish company, Repsol YPF, that it is withdrawing from exploration was driven partly by a dispute over taxation.

  ECONOMIC GROWTH: Having declined steadily for a number of years, oil production is once more on an upward trajectory. The onset of production at the Aseng field boosted overall output by around 50,000 b/d in 2012, while the Alen field is scheduled to deliver its first production in late 2013, with an initial output of 37,500 b/d. The new projects will offset declining output from mature fields over the next few years, raising total production from around 280,000 b/d (prior to Aseng coming on stream) to a projected average of 348,000 b/d in 2014. New discoveries and a rise in gas production will support growth in overall output in 2015-17, although a steady fall in the productivity of existing fields will moderate this. A second liquefied natural gas (LNG) train at Punta Europa will, once completed in 2016, double LNG processing capacity and reinforce the government's attempts to transform Equatorial Guinea into a regional gas hub. Meanwhile, government spending on large infrastructure projects, including the construction of a new capital city on the mainland, at Oyala, means that growth in the construction sector will remain elevated. Overall, GDP growth is expected to moderate to 6.5% in 2013, from an estimated 7.2% in 2012, as growth in oil output decelerates slightly. The pace of economic expansion will remain strong in 2014, at 6.7%, as oil output rises further, higher oil prices and revenue feed through to the wider economy and investment in sectors such as agriculture and fisheries continues to grow. However, as hydrocarbons production begins to level off in 2015-17, growth will decelerate to an average of 4.1%.

  INFLATION: Inflation has been consistently higher in Equatorial Guinea than in other Franc Zone countries over the past ten years, as the oil boom generated Dutch-disease effects, including substantial increases in labour costs and prices for non-tradeables (services and real estate). As a result of continued high levels of capital expenditure and strong growth, this trend is set to continue. However, it will be offset by a moderation in commodity prices, with the result that average inflation will ease to 5.8% in 2013 and further to an average of 5.6% in 2014-15. The final two years of the forecast period will witness a renewed (albeit modest) upturn in commodity prices. However, with lower economic growth than in the previous years and the euro-and, consequently, the CFA franc-regaining some lost ground against the dollar in 2016-17, we expect the rise to be modest; inflation is expected to average 5.8% in 2016-17.

  EXCHANGE RATES: The CFA franc is pegged to the euro at CFAfr655.96:EUR1 and therefore fluctuates in line with euro:dollar movements. Following its recovery against the US dollar over the second half of 2012, we now expect the euro to strengthen slightly in 2013 as financial turmoil in the euro zone settles, risk tolerance returns among global investors and the external position improves for many economies in the euro zone, despite a persistently weak economic outlook. The franc is forecast to stay virtually the same, strengthening only fractionally from an average of CFAfr511:US$1 in 2012, before resuming its downward trend to CFAfr518:US$ in 2014 and further to CFAfr530:US$1 in 2015. We expect the franc to recover slightly to an average of CFAfr521:US$1 in the final two years of the forecast period, in line with the euro's movements against the dollar.

  EXTERNAL SECTOR: As oil and gas comprise the bulk of merchandise exports, the trade balance will be influenced strongly by hydrocarbons prices and production. Lower global oil prices in 2013 (averaging US$103.8/barrel) will be partly offset by a rise in oil output during the latter stages of 2013, leading to a marginal rise in oil receipts over the year as a whole, from an estimated US$16.9bn in 2012 to US$17.8bn in 2013. This will be followed by a jump in exports during 2014 (reflecting the full impact of extra output from the Alen field, as well as slightly higher prices), before gains in oil production tail off in 2015-17, causing a slowdown in export growth. Meanwhile, continued hydrocarbons exploration and the government's ambitious spending plans will sustain strong import demand over the forecast period. Nevertheless, we expect the trade surplus to expand from an estimated US$9.6bn in 2012 to US$11bn in 2017. The services deficit is expected to increase as growth in hydrocarbons-related service imports more than offsets the boost to service exports from items such as tourism and port services (the latter helped by the modernisation of the deepwater dock at Malabo). Profit repatriation by oil and gas companies is expected to track hydrocarbons output and prices, so the income deficit is forecast to rise steadily, reaching an average of US$8bn in 2015-17. In view of these trends, we expect the current-account to move from a small surplus in 2012 to a deficit equivalent to 1.2% of GDP in 2013, before the deficit narrows to 0.8% of GDP in 2014 in line with rising oil output. The slowdown in oil export growth will lead to a widening of the current-account deficit in 2015-17, to an average of 2.1% of GDP.

  January 09, 2013

• Forecast

  Equatorial Guinea: 5-year forecast summary

  Outlook for 2013-17: Forecast summary

  Forecast summary
  (% unless otherwise indicated)
  	2012a	2013b	2014b	2015b	2016b	2017b
  Real GDP growth	7.2	6.5	6.7	3.9	4.0	4.3
  Consumer price inflation (av)	6.2	5.8	5.7	5.5	5.7	5.9
  Hydrocarbons production ('000 b/d)	305.0	320.0	348.0	355.0	362.0	366.0
  Lending interest rate (%)	15.0	15.0	15.0	14.0	14.0	14.0
  Government balance (% of GDP)	1.7	1.8	2.6	2.2	2.3	2.3
  Exports of goods fob (US$ bn)	17.7	18.7	21.4	22.3	23.6	25.0
  Imports of goods fob (US$ bn)	8.2	9.1	10.8	11.9	13.0	14.1
  Current-account balance (US$ bn)	0.1	-0.3	-0.2	-0.6	-0.7	-0.8
  Current-account balance (% of GDP)	0.6	-1.2	-0.8	-2.1	-2.2	-2.1
  External debt (year-end; US$ bn)	1.2	1.3	1.4	1.5	1.6	1.7
  Exchange rate CFAfr:US$ (av)	511.0	510.5	517.5	530.1	520.6	520.4
  Exchange rate CFAfr:US$ (end-period)	506.5	514.5	526.9	522.7	520.5	520.8
  Exchange rate CFAfr:¥100 (av)	639.2	617.7	596.7	595.6	564.9	569.2
  Exchange rate CFAfr:€ (av)	656.0	656.0	656.0	656.0	656.0	656.0
  a Economist Intelligence Unit estimates. b Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts.

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  January 15, 2013

View detailed map

Country Briefing

Land area

28,051 sq km (mainland 26,017 sq km, islands 2,034 sq km)

Population

720,213 (2011, World Bank )

Main towns

Population (2012 World Gazetteer estimates):

 Bata: 250,770

 Malabo (capital): 187,302

 Ebebiyin: 36,565

Climate

Tropical

Weather in Malabo (altitude 55 metres)

Hottest months: January-April (23-32°C); coolest months: July-August (22-27°C); driest months: February-March (75 mm average rainfall); wettest months: May- September (350 mm average rainfall)

Languages

Spanish (official), French (official), Portuguese (official), Fang, Bubi and pidgin English

Measures

Metric

Currency

CFA franc (CFAfr)

Time

1 hour ahead of GMT

Public holidays

Fixed public holidays: January 1st (New Year's Day), May 1st (May Day), May 25th (Africa Day), June 5th (president's birthday), August 3rd (Armed Forces Day), August 15th (Constitution Day), October 12th (Independence Day), December 10th (Human Rights Day), December 25th (Christmas Day)

Moveable public holidays: Good Friday, Easter Monday, Corpus Christi

January 15, 2013