Guinea

Politics:

• Analysis

  Guinea politics: Quick View - Much-needed political dialogue fails to get s

  Event

  The government and various opposition groupings have agreed to political dialogue, but are unable to agree on how to proceed.

  Analysis

  In early March some of the worst riots in years paralysed the capital, Conakry, and other cities, causing ten deaths and some US$14m in material damage, according to some estimates. The events triggered a move towards a long-awaited political dialogue. This got under way on March 16th but immediately ran into obstacles. The opposition wants there to be "national facilitators" present at the talks, as well as a representative of either the UN, the African Union or the International Organisation of French-speaking countries. The government is against this idea.

  Two widely respected religious leaders, Imam El Hadj Mamadou Saliou Camara of the Fayçal Mosque in Conakry and Vincent Coulibaly, the Archbishop of Conakry, have urged peaceful dialogue between the two sides. However, disagreement about the facilitators could stymie the talks from the start. This would leave the main issues, namely disagreements about the composition of the electoral commission, Commission électorale nationale indépendante (CENI), and the reliability of the voters' register, without a solution. The opposition continues to claim that CENI is biased against them and that the voters' register is not fit for purpose.

  The third contentious issue is the right of Guineans abroad to vote. In contrast to the presidential election, Guineans abroad are not allowed to vote for members of the National Assembly, Guinea's parliament. The Guinean diaspora is sizeable and those who did vote in the 2010 presidential election overwhelmingly chose Cellou Dalein Diallo, the current leader of the opposition. Although this was not enough for Mr Diallo in the presidential race, it is clear why the opposition wants to extend the parliamentary franchise to Guineans abroad and why the government is resistant to the idea.

  March 25, 2013

• Background

  Guinea: Constitution and institutions

  Power is concentrated in the president and his council

  The 1982 constitution was suspended in 1984 and replaced by a new loi fondamentale, which was approved by referendum in 1991. The president, elected by universal suffrage for a seven-year term, appoints the Council of Ministers, and they jointly exercise executive power. In late 2001 a referendum was officially declared won (although opposition parties strongly disagreed), which modified the constitution to allow the president to seek re-election as many times as he wishes. Government decisions are subject to approval by the National Assembly, but opposition can be overruled by decree.

  The unicameral National Assembly is selected by a complex voting procedure: one-third of the 114 deputies are elected by a simple majority, and the remaining two-thirds by a system of proportional representation. Guinea's legal system is based on French civil law, but incorporates aspects of customary law and can be modified by decree. A Cour de surete de l'etat (state security court) was established in 1997 to hear cases against army officers accused of plotting to overthrow the government in 1996. The same court sentenced Mr Conde to five years in prison in September 2000 for threatening the security of the state.

  Mr Conte devolves some powers to the prime minister

  Under the terms agreed by the president in early 2007, a number of functions have now been passed to the prime minister:

  • heading the government and, as such, chairing the cabinet;
  • proposing the composition of government (although the president retains the power to appoint ministers);
  • determining the duties of each cabinet minister;
  • appointing all key civil service posts and heading the administration;
  • overseeing all public authorities;
  • taking responsibility for fiscal and monetary management;
  • determining economic policy and overseeing its implementation;
  • overseeing political reform; and
  • representing the government abroad.

  November 28, 2007

• Structure

  Guinea: Political structure

  Official name

  République de Guinée

  Form of state

  Unitary republic

  Legal system

  Constitution approved by referendum in December 1990

  National legislature

  114-member National Assembly, elected June 2002; currently dissolved; the National Transition Council (Conseil national de transition; CNT) has legislative responsibilities until the next legislative election

  National elections

  June 2002 (legislative); the first round of the presidential election took place on June 27th 2010 and the run-off was held on November 7th 2010; the legislative election, having been repeatedly delayed, is now scheduled for May 12th 2013

  Head of state

  President elected in November 2010 for a five-year term by popular vote

  National government

  Prime minister appointed on December 24th 2010 and cabinet appointed in January and February 2011

  Main political parties

  Of 65 registered political parties, according to the national electoral commission, Commission nationale électorale indépendante (CENI), six were represented in the last National Assembly; they include the former ruling party, Parti de l'unité et du progrès (PUP), Union pour le progrès et le renouveau (UPR) and Union pour le progrès de la Guinée (UPG), the radical opposition party; 24 political parties endorsed candidates for the 2010 presidential election, the strongest of which were Rassemblement du peuple de Guinée (RPG), Union des forces démocratiques de Guinée (UFDG), Union des forces républicaines (UFR), Front uni pour la démocratie et le changement (FUDEC), and Parti de l'espoir pour le developpement national (PEDN)

  Key ministers

  President: Alpha Condé

  Prime minister: Mohamed Said Fofana

  Agriculture: Emile Yombouno

  Commerce: Mohamed Dorval Doubouya

  Defence: Alpha Condé

  Economy & finance: Kerfalla Yansané

  Employment & technical and professional training: Damantang Albert Camara

  Energy : Papa Koly Kourouma

  Environment, water & forests: Saramady Touré

  Foreign affairs & Guineans abroad: Louncény Fal

  Health & public hygiene: Edouard Gnankoye Lama

  Industry & SMEs: Hadja Ramatoulaye Bah

  Information: Dirus Diale Dore

  Justice: Christian Sow

  Mines & geology: Mohamed Lamine Fofana

  Planning: Sékou Traoré

  Public works & transport: Ousmane Bah

  Secretary-general to the presidency: François Louceny Fall

  Security & civil protection: Mouramani Cissé

  Telecommunication & information technology: Oyé Guilavogui

  Territorial administration & decentralisation: Alhassane Condé

  Tourism & hotels: Louncény Camara

  Urbanisation, housing and construction: Ibrahima Bangoura

  Central bank governor

  Louncény Nabé

  March 12, 2013

Economy:

• Background

  Guinea: Economic background

  Main economic indicators, 2006
  (Economist Intelligence Unit estimates unless otherwise indicated)
  Real GDP growth (%)	2.2
  Consumer price inflation (av; %)	30.0
  Current-account balance (US$ m)	-108
  Exchange rate (av; Gnf:US$)	5,350(a)
  Population (m)	9.2
  External debt (end-2004; US$ m)	3,225.7
  (a) Actual.
  Source: Economist Intelligence Unit, CountryData.

  Download text file (csv format)

  November 28, 2007

• Structure

  Guinea: Economic structure

  Economic structure: Annual indicators

  	2008a	2009a	2010a	2011b	2012b
  GDP at market prices (Gnf bn)	20,780	22,133	27,118	33,973	42,464
  GDP (US$ bn)	4.5	4.6	4.7	5.1	6.0
  Real GDP growth (%)	4.9	-0.3	1.9	3.6	4.5
  Consumer price inflation (av; %)	18.4	4.7	15.5	21.4a	15.0
  Population (m)	9.6	9.8b	10.0b	10.2	10.5
  Exports of goods fob (US$ m)	1,342.0	1,049.7	1,471.2	1,432.7a	1,530.6
  Imports of goods fob (US$ m)	-1,366.1	-1,060.1	-1,404.9	-2,105.6a	-2,944.3
  Current-account balance (US$ m)	-440.1	-426.7	-329.2	-1,215.2a	-2,225.2
  Current-account balance (% of GDP)	-9.7	-9.3	-7.0	-23.8	-37.2
  Foreign-exchange reserves excl gold (US$ m)	138.2	98.3	122.2	806.8	567.6
  Exchange rate (av) Gnf:US$	4,601.7	4,801.1	5,726.1	6,658.0a	7,100.0
  a Actual. b Economist Intelligence Unit estimates.

  Download the numbers in Excel

  Origins of gross domestic product 2010a	% of total	Components of gross domestic product 2010a	% of total
  Agriculture	13.0	Private consumption	76.5
  Industry	47.2	Government consumption	7.5
  Manufacturing	4.5	Fixed investment	20.0
  Services	39.4	Stockbuilding	0.0
  		Exports of goods & services	34.8
  		Imports of goods & services	39.2
  Principal exports 2010a	% of total	Principal imports 2010a	% of total
  Bauxite	35.6	Petroleum products	21.2
  Alumina	7.4	Intermediate goods	23.1
  Gold	47.8	Prepared foodstuffs, beverages & tobacco	12.9
  Diamonds	3.1	Capital goods	31.1
  Main destinations of exports 2011b	% of total	Main origins of imports 2011b	% of total
  Chile	38.5	China	32.8
  Spain	14.4	Netherlands	20.1
  India	12.4	US	13.3
  Russia	11.7	France	9.9
  a Economist Intelligence Unit estimates. b Derived from partners' trade returns.

  Download the numbers in Excel

  Download text file (csv format)

  December 06, 2012

• Outlook

  Guinea: Country outlook

  Guinea: Country outlook

  FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT

  OVERVIEW: The legislative election is scheduled to be held on May 12th, but rising instability continues to jeopardise Guinea's democratic transition under the leadership of the president, Alpha Condé. Political stability remains fragile as the government faces the key challenges of reconciling ethnic groups, reforming the military and managing popular expectations regarding living standards and public-service delivery. The Economist Intelligence Unit expects the budget deficit to average 2.1% of GDP in the 2013-14 forecast period, owing to improvements in public financial management. Real GDP growth is forecast to edge up from 4.6% in 2012 to an average of 5.1% in 2013-14, driven principally by mining investment, even though this is expected to slow with an easing in commodity prices (especially oil). Having widened significantly to an estimated 33.4% of GDP in 2012, the current-account deficit will narrow to 26.9% in 2014, despite continuing to grow in absolute terms.

  DOMESTIC POLITICS: The government of Mr Condé, Guinea's first democratically elected president, faces prolonged political instability. Mr Condé had previously failed to honour his promise of holding the legislative election before the end of 2012, and patience among the opposition (led chiefly by the former prime minister and loser of the 2010 presidential election, Celou Dalein Diallo) continues to ebb. Following the original announcement in April 2012 that postponed the election, street protests have increased in number, size and violence. More confrontation is likely, and influential members of the sizeable overseas Guinean community-chief among them Oury Bah, the second-in-command of Mr Diallo's Union des forces démocratiques de Guinée and currently in self-imposed exile in the French capital, Paris-are calling for violent confrontations with the government to force the democratic transition. If these tendencies gather momentum-and the government's inaction on the political front suggests that they will-the country is set for a prolonged period of increasing political tension that could have been avoided. A protest was violently broken up in August 2012 and opposition leaders were attacked by the authorities, prompting them to withdraw from any involvement in the administration. The unilateral declaration by the head of the electoral commission of a date for the legislative election was one of the major impetuses for the opposition's withdrawal from the commission, putting the May poll in jeopardy and increasing the likelihood of unrest. The ethno-political dimension is another threat to stability. Although there are no clear-cut ethnic affiliations to be inferred from the 2010 presidential election, those of Peulh background (around 40% of the population) generally supported Mr Diallo, whereas Mr Condé's natural Malinké constituency-around 35% of the population-is dwindling as opposition rallies attract more Malinké. Many Peulh maintain that the 2010 election was rigged and that the government is trying to deny them a parliamentary voice, a belief exacerbated by accusations that Mr Condé is discriminating against the Peulh economically and politically, despite the presence of some Peulh ministers. The lack of a parliamentary platform deprives Mr Diallo of a legal and non-violent means of managing these grievances-real or perceived-forcing expressions of discontent on the streets. Political demonstrations have deteriorated into ethnic violence. Our 2012 democracy index ranks Guinea 146th out of 167 countries, unchanged from the previous ranking, placing it in the "authoritarian regimes" category. The failure to manage political relations also puts two further major challenges facing Mr Condé's government into sharp perspective. First, Guineans have clear expectations about the administration's ability to improve public services and living standards, in spite of Mr Condé's repeated expectation-lowering statements that this will be a slow process. A lack of perceived progress plays into the second major challenge, namely the relationship between the military and the civilian government. Military reform has begun, officers have been removed from the cabinet and the army is being shrunk, also lessening its burden on the budget (although in the 2013 budget, the army is still due to receive 10% of total spending). So far the army has respected the supremacy of the political process, but it is increasingly used to repress opposition activity. Furthermore, with Guinea's history of coups d'état, greater political instability may provide the army with the excuse to intervene again, perhaps inspired by recent coups in neighbouring Guinea-Bissau and Mali. The attempted assassination of the president in 2011 shows not only lingering indiscipline within elements of the military, but also that some elements have difficulty accepting political control.

  INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS: Guinea's transition towards civilian rule has led to its readmission to the international community. High-level relations with all neighbouring countries are strong, in spite of Mr Condé's claims that attacks against his residence were made with the complicity (or even active support) of Senegal and The Gambia. Continued domestic political stalemate is a source of concern within a region already grappling with latent instability in Côte d'Ivoire, coups in Mali and Guinea-Bissau and political turbulence in Nigeria. The Economic Community of West African States has demanded a swift and peaceful resolution to Guinea's political impasse-exacerbated by delays to the legislative election. An agreement to demilitarise the border town of Yenga points towards the resolution of a minor but long-standing territorial dispute with Sierra Leone.

  POLICY TRENDS: Despite the political challenges, Mr Condé's government is successfully addressing the difficult economic legacy-endemic corruption, fiscal laxity and extreme growth in money supply-of the three previous governments: ineptitude under the former regime of Lansana Conté, a year of populist policymaking under Captain Moussa Dadis Camara's Conseil national pour la démocratie et le développement and another year of opaque management under General Sékouba Konaté's transitional government. The last two short-lived regimes saw a rapid increase in government expenditure, the large-scale circumvention of public procurement procedures and a serious bloating of army and civil service personnel and salaries; the civil service grew from 56,000 in 2006 to almost 100,000 by early 2011. The ballooning budget deficit was financed largely by advances from the Banque centrale de la république de Guinée (the central bank) and growth in the money supply. Inflation is now falling and should remain more manageable, and the budget deficit has contracted significantly. Owing to such progress, Guinea secured significant debt relief in 2012-US$2.1bn under the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries Initiative, and US$1bn from the Paris Club of official creditors. Holding the legislative election is a precondition to the EU releasing some US$230m in aid. In a bold step, the government in February published all contracts and documents related to the mining sector, in the name of transparency. However, restoring macroeconomic stability has not directly translated into improving living standards. Policy unpredictability has deterred large mining companies, and resurgent political instability in the run-up to the election presents a serious downside risk to the economic forecast and policy outlook. The government will continue to rein in the fiscal deficit that it inherited. Among the ambitious list of measures adopted by the government to balance the budget are reducing fuel price subsidies; subsuming all revenue under a single authority; ending what the government terms "ad hoc tax exemptions" (the widespread practice of granting tax holidays to politically connected businesses); recovering tax arrears; reviewing procurement procedures; reforming the civil service; and better cash budgeting. On the revenue side, the Mining Code will give the state up to a 35% stake in mining operations and lead to significant increases in government revenue. The government is unlikely, however, to meet either its revenue (Gnf11.5trn, US$1.6bn) or spending (Gnf13.7trn) targets outlined in the 2013 budget, although we do agree that the deficit will narrow in both absolute and relative terms, to 2.3% of GDP. Challenges to fiscal restraint from well-established interest groups that have benefited from lavish patronage, such as the military, will remain, but the government, with help from returning international financial institutions, should be largely successful in overcoming them. We expect the overall fiscal deficit-including interest payments-to fall from an estimated 5.2% of GDP in 2012 to 2.3% in 2013 and 1.9% in 2014. The interest payment savings from considerable debt relief are expected to be mostly ploughed back into domestic spending. The deficit will be financed by drawing down the 2011 windfall revenue and new concessional debt.

  ECONOMIC GROWTH: Growth in bauxite and alumina demand will be supported by a recovery in Chinese growth in 2013, but will remain vulnerable to the likelihood of growth slowing there in 2014. Prices are set to rise slightly in 2013-14, but Guinea's income base is highly uncertain. Output of alumina will recover in 2013 as a labour dispute at the Friguia refinery, which saw production halve in 2013, is expected to be resolved. Progress on consolidating political stability, which would entice investors to the country's significant unexplored mineral reserves, has been erratic. Construction is expected to be boosted by the start of several large infrastructure projects, such as new or expanding ports at Matakan, Kamsar and Conakry (the capital), railways (including the Trans-Guinean Railway) and roads. Elevated gold prices in 2013 will support gold mining, provided that production recovers after an estimated 39% drop in 2011-12, caused by industrial action. Government consumption will also remain strong as the administration strives to improve living standards despite fiscal consolidation. We expect real GDP growth to tick up to an average of 5.1% in 2013-14, from an estimated 4.6% in 2012. Risks are weighted on the downside, and economic growth could be derailed if political stability is not maintained and the global economic context remains weak.

  EXTERNAL ACCOUNT: A return to constitutional rule and improved political stability would support the steady expansion of export volumes-especially as we expect aluminium prices to start to recover in 2013, and the price of gold, another major export earner, to reach new highs before dipping thereafter. Exports are forecast to grow from an estimated US$1.7bn in 2012 to US$1.9bn in 2014 as divergent bauxite and gold prices partially offset rising output. Despite some restrictions on imports and lower global food and oil prices, the import bill jumped to an estimated US$2.8bn in 2012. It is forecast to continue rising to US$3.2bn in 2014, reflecting increased government spending and capital imports to support the mining sector and infrastructure projects (even if the pace of investment slows). Services will remain in deficit owing to import-related shipping and insurance costs. The chronic income deficit reflects profit remittances by mining companies. The current transfers surplus is expected to rise owing to higher remittances from Guineans abroad and as donors slowly unfreeze aid. Having leapt to an estimated 33.4% of GDP in 2012, the current-account deficit is forecast to moderate, to 26.9% of GDP in 2014, as the trade deficit narrows and the rate of GDP growth outpaces that of the current-account deficit. Thereafter mining investment will generate higher exports, with foreign direct investment inflows continuing to fund the deficit.

  March 13, 2013

View detailed map

Country Briefing

Land area

245,857 sq km

Population

11.2m (2012 World Gazetteer estimates)

Main towns

Conakry: (capital; 2.2m)

Kindia: (218,160)

N'Zérékoré: (280,256)

Kissidougou: (142,536)

Guékédou: (346,908)

Boké: (159,152)

Kankan: (240,635)

Fria: (148,557)

Climate

Humid tropical along the coast; upland tropical in the Fouta Djallon; savannah in the north-east; subequatorial in the Forest region

Weather in Conakry (altitude 7 metres)

Hottest month, May, 24-35°C; coolest month, August, 22-28°C; driest month, January, 3 mm average rainfall; wettest month, July, 1,300 mm average rainfall

Languages

French (official), Pular (Peuhl), Mandingue (Malinké) and Soussou

Measures

Metric system

Currency

Guinean franc (Gnf)

Time

GMT

Public holidays

January 1st; April 3rd (anniversary of the inauguration of the Second Republic); May 1st; August 15th (Assumption); October 2nd (Independence Day); November 1st (Army Day); all Islamic holidays are observed in accordance with the lunar calendar, which means that the following dates are approximate: Mawlid al-Nabi (the birthday of the Prophet, February 4rd 2012); Eid al-Fitr (end of Ramadan, August 19th); Eid al-Adha (Feast of the Sacrifice, October 26th); Islamic New Year (November 15th)

March 01, 2012