Gabon

Politics:

• Analysis

  Gabon politics: Quick View – Taking steps to improve press freedom

  Event

  After representatives of the Gabonese media spoke of some of the issues facing their profession, the president, Ali Bongo Ondimba, announced his intention to improve working conditions for the press in Gabon, including with respect to press freedom.

  Analysis

  In early January representatives of the print and broadcast media addressed Mr Bongo and his wife during a new year's greetings event at which various sectors of civil society gave presentations on their respective status and outlook for 2013. While the representatives of the press recognised that no journalist had been imprisoned since Mr Bongo's election in 2009, they outlined a number of obstacles that the Gabonese media face in their work. Central to these were problems with access to information.

  Gabon ranked 101st (out of 179 countries) on the Press Freedom Index for 2011–12 prepared by global media watchdog Reporters Without Borders (known by its French acronym, RSF). That made it one of the better-performing countries in the region, but worse than its neighbours Cameroon and Congo (Brazzaville). Press freedom watchdogs have noted that the Gabonese authorities have on occasion targeted broadcasters and newspapers that support the opposition.

  Mr Bongo responded to the journalists' petition by denouncing certain factors that he said obscured information, including journalistic amateurism, political wrangling and self-censorship. He also said that he was looking to decriminalise press offences, while the terms outlining the creation of a press association were close to completion. Mr Bongo revealed that RSF would soon be visiting the capital, Libreville, to advise the government on the texts that would form the basis for the press association, as well as on press freedom in Gabon more broadly.

  January 21, 2013

• Background

  Gabon: Political forces

  The PDG has been in power since 1968

  The PDG is the sole party in Gabon to have national reach. The party is tightly structured and has attracted influential figures from Gabon's various tribes and regions. The PDG reaffirmed its domination in the National Assembly after it obtained 81 out of 120 seats in the December 2006 legislative election. In contrast, the opposition has become weak, is divided and draws most of its support from a small number of ethnic groups. Since a brief period of relative strength during the political unrest of the early and mid-1990s, the opposition has become fragmented, owing to Mr Bongo's policy of co-option and to internal disagreements, often fuelled by the undemocratic structure of Gabon's political parties. Various former opposition figures have now aligned themselves with the "presidential majority", officially supporting the PDG. The strongest opposition leader during the 1990s, Mr Abessole, has long been part of Mr Bongo's patronage network—he was appointed third deputy prime minister in January 2003—and his once-powerful party, the RNB, has now split. In 2004 another opposition party, the Parti social democrate, led by Pierre-Claver Maganga Moussavou, joined the presidential majority.

  Legislative election, Dec 2006(a)
  	No. of seats
  Presidential majority	99
  Parti democratique gabonais (PDG)	81
  Rassemblement pour le Gabon (RPG)	8
  Alliance democratique et republicaine (ADERE)	3
  Parti social democrate (PSD)	2
  Circle of Liberal Reformers (CLR)	2
  Mouvement africain de developpement (MAD)	1
  Rassemblement des democrats republicains (RDR)	1
  Rassemblement national des bucherons-Kombila (RNB-Kombila)	1
  Opposition	16
  Union du peuple gabonais (UPG)	8
  Union gabonaise pour la democratie et le developpement (UGDD)	4
  Parti gabonais du progres (PGP)	2
  Congres pour la democratie et la justice (CDJ)	1
  Forum africain pour la reconstruction (FAR)	1
  Independents	4
  Total	119
  (a) Voting was postponed in one constituency.
  Source: National Assembly.

  Download text file (csv format)

  Opposition divided along ethnic lines

  The UPG, led by the outspoken Mr Mamboundou, is now the main opposition party with eight seats in parliament. The UPG, which had boycotted the 2001 legislative poll, draws most of its support from the Punu-Lumbu ethnic group in the south of the country and from dissatisfied voters in Libreville. The UGDD, led by Mr Myboto, is the second most important opposition party, and receives its support from the Nzebi ethnic group, which is predominant in some areas of Haut-Ogooue province. Mr Myboto, an ex-minister and a former close ally of Mr Bongo, set up the UGDD in 2005 after falling out with the president. The Parti gabonais du progres (PGP) has lost ground in its stronghold of Port-Gentil, owing to the in-fighting that has affected the party since the death of its long-standing leader, Pierre-Louis Agondjo Okawe, in 2005.

  Union and student protest

  Industrial action was limited during one-party rule, but in early 1990 a series of rolling strikes organised by the opposition forced Mr Bongo to hold a national conference, dissolve the Council of Ministers and establish a constitutional court and national communications council. Trade union activity has since been localised, focusing on conventional labour issues: salary arrears, corruption, privatisation and fiscal austerity. Strike action, which has been mostly peaceful since the mid-1990s (when the opposition parties were increasingly co-opted into government), has centred on universities and on the civil servants' and teachers' unions.

  In recent years the focus of opposition to the government has been shifting away from political parties, which are compromised and weakened by Mr Bongo's patronage politics, and towards unions and other organisations. Strikes and disturbances have provided evidence of popular disenchantment with the political system. Matters have calmed down since December 2004, when violent clashes between military police and protesters led to the temporary closure of an oil production site. Given that unemployment is estimated at 22%, such dissatisfaction is likely to continue, although high oil prices will prevent a fiscal crisis that would have necessitated tougher economic policies and even greater public dissatisfaction.

  April 10, 2007

• Structure

  Gabon: Political structure

  Official name

  République gabonaise

  Form of state

  Unitary republic

  Legal system

  Based on the constitution of March 1991, amended by the National Assembly in 2003 to remove the restriction on the number of terms that a president may serve

  National legislature

  The National Assembly (the lower chamber) has 120 members, who are elected for five years by universal adult suffrage; the Senate (the upper chamber) has 91 members, who are elected for six years by municipal and regional councillors

  National elections

  December 2011 (legislative) and August 2009 (presidential); next legislative and presidential elections due in 2016

  Head of state

  Ali Bongo Ondimba was elected president in late August 2009 and was sworn into office in mid-October following a recount of votes

  National government

  The government is led by the prime minister and an appointed Council of Ministers

  Main political parties

  Parti démocratique gabonais (PDG, the ruling party); Union nationale (UN, dissolved in February 2011); Union du peuple gabonais (UPG); Parti gabonais du progrès (PGP); Rassemblement pour le Gabon (RPG; formerly Rassemblement national des bûcherons); Parti social démocrate (PSD); Union gabonaise pour la démocratie et le développement (UGDD); Union pour la nouvelle République (UPNR); Alliance démocratique et républicaine (Adere); Cercle des libéraux réformateurs (CLR); a number of parties, including UPG, UN, PSD and UPNR, have formed an umbrella coalition, Union des forces du changement (UFC)

  Key ministers

  Prime minister: Raymond Ndong Sima

  Agriculture, livestock & rural development: Julien Nkoghé Bekalé

  Budget, public accounts & civil service: Christiane Rose Ossoucah Raponda

  Defence: Pacôme Ruffin Ondzounga

  Digital economy, communications & post: Blaise Louembé

  Economy, employment & sustainable development: Luc Oyoubi

  Education, training, youth & sport: Séraphin Moundounga

  Family & social affairs: Honorine Nzet Biteghe

  Foreign affairs: Emmanuel Issozet Ngondet

  Health: Léon Nzouba

  Industry & mines: Régis Immongault Tatagani

  Interior, public security, immigration & decentralisation: Jean-François Ndongou

  Investment promotion, public works, transport, housing & tourism: Magloire Ngambia

  Justice: Ida Réteno Assonouet

  Oil, energy & hydro resources: Etienne Ngoubou

  Small & medium-sized businesses, crafts & trade: Fidèle Mengue M'Engouang

  Water & forestry: Gabriel Ntchango

  Central bank governor

  Lucas Abaga Nchama

  March 26, 2013

• Outlook

  Gabon: Key developments

  Outlook for 2013-17

  • The president, Ali Bongo Ondimba, will continue to secure his rule over the country and the governing Parti démocratique gabonais (PDG), but grievances over his election and about reforms will lead to periodic protests and strikes.
  • The near-complete domination of the National Assembly by the PDG turns it into a "rubber stamp" that will accelerate legislative efficiency but reduce policy oversight and scrutiny.
  • Turning Gabon into an "emerging" economy will remain the guiding policy principle, but success will depend on the government's ability to develop much-needed infrastructure and diversify into higher value-added activities.
  • Real GDP growth is forecast to average 5.9% over the forecast period. Growth will be supported by investment and expansion in sectors such as timber and manganese as the oil sector slowly contracts.
  • Despite spiking in 2012 owing to a stronger franc, price caps and tax cuts, inflation came in at only an estimated 2.9%. Inflation will ease in line with global commodity prices and remain contained over the forecast period.

  Review

  • On February 27th the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative delisted Gabon. The assessment was scathing, highlighting serious shortcomings.
  • In mid-February the IMF concluded its bi-annual Article IV consultations with Gabon, following a mission in December 2012, applauding the country's attempts to broaden the economic base through diversification.
  • France's financial crime unit on February 13th searched two villas in southern France believed to be owned by the family of Mr Bongo as part of an investigation into "biens mal acquis" (ill-gotten gains).
  • BGFI Bank agreed to provide funding of CFAfr100bn (US$200m) for the construction of 3,808 homes. The government's goal of 5,000 housing units a year remains unrealistic, despite an increased infrastructure budget.
  • In mid-January the government awarded iron ore and oil exploration licences to London-listed Ferrex and Pura Vida of Australia respectively.
  • A visit in January by Turkey's prime minister with a delegation of business people underscores a burgeoning relationship between the two countries.
  • In December a senior presidential adviser, Liban Soleman, took an opposition activist, Marc Ona Essangui, to a tribunal, accusing him of defamation.
  • The oil minister, Etienne Ngoubou, revealed on December 2nd that the government was planning to launch, after much delay, a new deepwater offshore oil-licensing round in June 2013.

  March 26, 2013

Economy:

• Background

  Gabon: Population

  A highly urbanised population

  Gabon is sparsely populated, with 1.4m people in mid-2006, according to the UN Statistics Division. Population density is very low, at just over five inhabitants/sq km, reflecting the fact that the majority of the country is covered by rainforest. The oil boom in the 1970s accelerated rural-urban migration, and 84% of the population now live in urban areas—predominantly in the capital, Libreville, and in Port-Gentil and Franceville—compared with an estimated average of 38% in Africa. The rural population is found mainly in the north of the country near the border with Cameroon. Despite its small population, there are about 40 ethnic groups, all of Bantu origin. The Fang and the Echira make up the largest groups (30% and 25% of the total population respectively) and live mainly in the northern areas and Estuaire province. The president, Omar Bongo Ondimba, is a member of the minority Teke group from Haut-Ogooue province in south-eastern Gabon. Other groups include the Obamba (Haut-Ogooue province), the Vili (Nyanga province), the Bapounou-Eshira (Ngounie province) and the Nzebi (Ogooue-Lolo province). About two-thirds of Gabonese call themselves Christians, mostly Catholic, although many also continue to practice traditional rites. Islam is growing fast, and Muslims account for 9% of the population, although a large proportion are foreigners from Muslim countries, mainly West African countries. The president changed his first name from Albert-Bernard to Omar on converting to Islam in 1973. Ethnic and religious rivalries are tame by African standards, although political alliances are mostly divided along ethnic lines. Population growth has slowed and it now stands at around 1.6%, according to the UN Population Fund, although the population continues to be very young: 40% are under 15 years old.

  Poor social indicators

  Despite having a high income level per head—US$6,623 in 2004 in purchasing power parity terms—Gabon has social indicators that are little better than those in the rest of Africa. Gabon ranks 124th out of 177 countries surveyed in the UN's 2006 Human Development Index. Reliable and up-to-date statistics on poverty in Gabon are scarce, as the government has placed little emphasis on establishing a poverty-monitoring system, but anecdotal evidence and poor social indicators suggest that poverty rates remain very high for such an oil-rich country.

  April 10, 2007

• Structure

  Gabon: Economic structure

  Data and charts: Annual trends charts

  
  

  

  March 26, 2013

• Outlook

  Gabon: Country outlook

  Gabon: Country outlook

  FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT

  POLITICAL STABILITY: Gabon is likely to remain one of the region's most stable countries. More than three years after his controversial election in August 2009, the president, Ali Bongo Ondimba, has seen off multiple challenges to his rule. He has withstood criticism of his victory; a self-proclaimed claim to the presidency by André Mba Obame, the third-placed runner-up and former leader of the now-defunct opposition party, Union nationale; and condemnation over the December 2011 legislative election, which saw a landslide victory for the ruling Parti démocratique gabonais (PDG) following a widespread opposition boycott and a poor performance by those other parties that did participate. Mr Bongo is also expected to ride out renewed calls by a new opposition alliance established in September, Union des forces du changement (UFC), for a national sovereign conference, which it hopes will lead to the president's resignation. Within the PDG, Mr Bongo will continue to assert his authority, following the removal in his February 2012 cabinet reshuffle of further vestiges of his father's rule, under which Mr Bongo has promised to draw a line.

  ELECTION WATCH: Following a widespread opposition boycott of the legislative election in protest at the lack of a biometric electoral roll, and a poor performance by those who did participate, the PDG now dominates the National Assembly, controlling (with its minority coalition partners) 118 out of 120 seats. With a seven-year term, the next presidential election is due in 2016; on current form, Mr Bongo is the favourite to win. Senate elections are due in January 2015, with the PDG expected to dominate again. The creation of the UFC alliance suggests that a modicum of opposition unity is possible. This is not guaranteed, given that the number of parties fell from 20, when the alliance was first proposed, to 12 by the time its charter was signed two months later in November.

  INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS: Relations with France will remain strong (Gabon hosts France's regional military base and Mr Bongo visits Paris frequently) despite a French judicial probe into the Bongo family's French assets and claims by former French officials that Mr Bongo's election was fraudulent. However, pressure is growing in both countries to reduce such long-standing political and commercial ties. Links with China remain strong, and the government appears able to contain the political and commercial fallout from its transfer of the giant Bélinga iron ore project from a Chinese state-owned company owing to lack of progress. Gabon is assiduously courting investment from Asia. Links with the US, Gabon's primary oil export market, will remain favourable given Gabonese support for US policy, bolstering the country's regional standing, which was formerly largely dependent on Omar Bongo's relations with other African leaders. A long-standing border dispute with Equatorial Guinea over the potentially oil-rich zone around Mbañe, Conga and Cocotiers is edging towards a negotiated resolution, despite the support of the EquatoGuinean president, Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo, for Mr Mba Obame.

  POLICY TRENDS: Economic policy during the forecast period will be driven by the goal of attaining emerging-market status--an ambitious target that is largely dependent on increasing foreign direct investment inflows and diversifying the economy. The government will seek to accelerate investment and increase value-added activities to reduce its oil dependency, building on policies such as banning unprocessed timber exports and expanding oil refinery capacity for export. The state will take stakes in companies operating in strategic sectors while outsourcing elements of policy development and execution to private international companies. The new special economic zone (SEZ) should encourage manufacturing, particularly of timber. Gabon plausibly aims to overtake South Africa and Nigeria as Africa's largest palm oil and manganese producer within a decade.

  ECONOMIC GROWTH: Having moderated in 2012 to an estimated 5.8%, real GDP growth is now expected to remain relatively robust from 2013 onwards, despite the weak outlook for the oil sector. Although the government expects oil output to come in at around 230,000 barrels/day in 2013-14, fields are maturing and output is still declining on a longer timeline. Not only does the external context remain weak--with oil prices dipping in 2013 and picking up only modestly thereafter--but the US, the market for most of Gabon's oil, is reducing such imports owing to its own burgeoning gas sector. Growth will be underpinned by strong capital investment in--and output from--other sectors that are increasing value-added operations and volume output, such as forestry, palm oil, manganese and gold, but not to 7% in 2013, as the government envisages. We expect growth in the region of 6.4%. Fixed investment, such as the construction of Gabon's first SEZ, will also be important, driven by generous oil-funded government and sovereign wealth fund spending, as well as deepwater oil exploration beyond the forecast period. Banking and infrastructure should also drive non-oil growth. Industrial unrest, although presently calm, presents a constant risk to output over the forecast period. Investment, particularly from Asia, will remain buoyant, supporting annual growth averaging 5.7% in 2014-17. Downside risks stem from the possibility of a euro zone break-up and chronic external weakness, although these risks will develop more from reduced investment, declining revenue (as a result of lower oil prices) and tighter French credit than from collapsing export markets (Europe accounts for less than one-third of Gabon's exports). Another risk is the fate of Olam, a Singaporean agribusiness that is one of Gabon's largest non-oil investors but appears to be under financial strain.

  INFLATION: Average annual consumer price growth accelerated in 2012, albeit to a still modest 2.9%, contained by subsidies, the temporary imposition of cuts in the value-added tax rate and the suspension of import duties towards the end of the year, which mitigated the impact of elevated commodity and import prices, wages and public spending. We expect average consumer price inflation to ease moderately in 2013, to 2.5%, as the currency firms and global commodity prices retreat slightly, and the government maintains price controls introduced in August 2012 on some food items. Notwithstanding the possibility of a euro zone break-up, the euro-pegged franc will resume weakening in 2014. Inflation is expected to remain in the 2.4-2.7% region over the forecast period, despite strong consumer and government spending and firming global commodity prices from 2015, partly because the government can be expected to increase subsidies should global and domestic prices rise too quickly.

  EXCHANGE RATES: The CFA franc--which is pegged to the euro at CFAfr655.96:EUR1--will fluctuate against the US dollar in line with the euro:dollar exchange rate. The euro staged a modest recovery in the second half of 2012 as fears of a break-up of the currency union receded. An outlook of less financial turmoil in the euro zone, rising risk tolerance of global investors and an improving external position for many euro zone economies has led us to revise our exchange-rate forecast for 2013. In line with these changes, we now expect the franc to appreciate from an estimated average of CFAfr511:US$1 in 2012 to CFAfr493:US$1 in 2013, before weakening from 2014 to an average of CFAfr520:US$1 in 2016-17. A euro zone break-up would lead to significant volatility.

  EXTERNAL SECTOR: Having eased to an estimated US$10.2bn in 2012, exports will continue to fall in 2013--to US$10bn--as global oil prices are set to fall by some 7%. Exports will recover only modestly thereafter, supported by non-oil exports such as manganese and timber, as waning oil output undermines the impact of firming prices. Imports will rise throughout the forecast period, from an estimated US$3.6bn in 2012 to US$5.4bn in 2017, driven by robust demand for capital goods. However, a weaker franc after 2013 might restrain some consumer imports and undermine the impact of lower commodity prices in the short term. The services deficit will widen from 2013. Tourism is expected to grow from a low base, but the services account will remain fundamentally determined by import-associated transport costs and technical services. The income deficit typically reflects export receipt dynamics, being mainly driven by profit repatriation by foreign oil and mining companies. Such outflows will fall in 2013 and rise only slightly to 2017. We forecast that the current-account surplus will shrink from an estimated 18.7% of GDP in 2012 to 11.2% in 2013. It will narrow rapidly over the remainder of the forecast period, barely remaining positive by 2017.

  March 28, 2013

• Forecast

  Gabon: 5-year forecast summary

  Outlook for 2013-17: Forecast summary

  Forecast summary
  (% unless otherwise indicated)
  	2012a	2013b	2014b	2015b	2016b	2017b
  Real GDP growth	5.8	6.4	5.6	5.9	5.7	5.8
  Oil production ('000 b/d)c	239.0	235.1	232.1	229.1	226.1	223.1
  Gross industrial growth	6.5	6.2	5.5	5.5	5.5	5.5
  Consumer price inflation (av)	2.9	2.5	2.4	2.5	2.7	2.5
  Consumer price inflation (year-end)	2.9	2.4	2.5	2.6	2.8	2.4
  Short-term interbank rate	4.0	4.0	4.3	4.5	4.5	4.8
  Government balance (% of GDP)	2.5	1.0	0.2	0.2	0.0	-0.1
  Exports of goods fob (US$ bn)	10.2	10.0	9.7	9.9	10.1	10.5
  Imports of goods fob (US$ bn)	3.6	4.0	4.3	4.5	4.9	5.4
  Current-account balance (US$ bn)	2.7	1.7	1.2	1.1	0.6	0.1
  Current-account balance (% of GDP)	18.7	11.2	7.4	6.7	3.5	0.6
  External debt (year-end; US$ bn)	3.0	3.2	3.2	3.1	3.0	2.1
  Exchange rate CFAfr:US$ (av)	510.5d	493.2	499.8	516.5	520.6	520.1
  Exchange rate CFAfr:¥100 (av)	638.0d	531.8	528.9	536.6	533.9	538.9
  Exchange rate CFAfr:€ (year-end)	656.0	656.0	656.0	656.0	656.0	656.0
  Exchange rate CFAfr:SDR (year-end)	764.0d	753.8	758.8	776.5	774.2	774.4
  a Economist Intelligence Unit estimates. b Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts. c Annual and quarterly data may differ since they are supplied by different sources. d Actual.

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  Download text file (csv format)

  March 26, 2013

View detailed map

Country Briefing

Land area

267,667 sq km

Population

1.5m (2011 estimate, IMF)

Main towns

Population ('000; 2012 World Gazetteer estimates)

Libreville (capital): 797

Port-Gentil: 150

Franceville: 59

Climate

Tropical

Weather in Libreville (altitude 35 metres)

Hottest month, January (23-31°C); coldest month, July (20-28°C); driest month, July (3 mm average rainfall); wettest month, November (373 mm average rainfall)

Languages

French (official), Fang, Myene and other Bantu languages: Batéké, Bapounou, Eshira, Bandjabi

Measures

Metric

Currency

CFA franc (CFAfr), fixed to the euro, backed by a guarantee from the Banque de France. It was devalued from CFAfr50:FFr1 to CFAfr100:FFr1 in 1994, and has been pegged at CFAfr655.96:€1 since France adopted the euro in 1999

Time

1 hour ahead of GMT

Public holidays

Fixed public holidays: January 1st (New Year's Day), April 17th (Women's Day), May 1st (Labour Day), August 15th (Assumption), August 16th-17th (Independence Day), November 1st (All Saints' Day), December 25th (Christmas Day)

Movable public holidays: Eid al-Fitr, Eid al-Adha, Easter, Pentecost

March 29, 2012