The governing centre-right National Coalition Party (Conservatives, or KOK) cemented its position as the country's top political party in the municipal elections held on October 28th. Its main coalition partner, the Social Democratic Party (SDP), came second, followed by the opposition Centre Party (KESK). Compared with the previous municipal elections in 2008, the ultranationalist The Finns made an unprecedented gain (in municipal elections) of 7 percentage points, from 5.4% to 12.3%. Despite the substantial increase, The Finns' result compares poorly with last year's general election, at which the party received 19.1% of the vote. Overall, the performance of The Finns was seen as below expectations, and the party's campaign lacked a clear focus on municipal issues. Instead, the election campaign was overshadowed by intense rivalry between the KOK and the SDP over whether outsourcing municipal service provision to private companies is a viable way to cut costs.
The Finns gain seats, but fail to reach the top
Despite gaining nearly 7 percentage points compared with the previous municipal elections (the strongest-ever gain in municipal elections), The Finns' performance was rather lacklustre. The party that had secured 19.1% of the vote at last year's general election now attracted a mere 12.3% of the vote, coming fourth overall. In its campaign, The Finns continued to focus on the populist anti-euro and anti-globalisation rhetoric that boosted the party's startling success in 2011. Taking into account the prevailing Euroscepticism within the Finnish population following the recent unpopular bail-outs of highly indebted countries in the euro zone's periphery, The Finns' election result is remarkably poor. The party's attempt to capitalise on resentment of the euro zone bail-outs was widely criticised by the other major parties, which argued that municipal governments have no political power to influence issues relating to the euro crisis. Moreover, The Finns offered little in the way of constructive proposals on how to finance local government budget shortfalls.
However, with a gain of almost 7 percentage points, the party strengthened its position as a formidable force in Finnish politics, thereby silencing many critics that saw its success at last year's general election as a one-off event.
KESK dominance in rural areas broken; KOK-SDP coalition more difficult
The Finns' rise at the municipal level has two major consequences. First, the long-standing rule of the KESK in rural municipalities is crumbling. Up until now, the KESK has held an absolute majority in one-third of Finland's mostly rural municipalities, and it has been the largest party in two-thirds of them. The recent rise of The Finns has reduced the KESK's dominance in rural areas. Second, most of Finland's large urban municipalities have traditionally been run by a KOK-SDP coalition. The rise of The Finns at their expense means that it will be harder for them to reach an absolute majority together.
Key theme of the election campaign: municipal service provision
The municipal elections were quite understandably not fought over The Finns' core issues of immigration, the euro and globalisation. Instead, local service provision was the dominant theme. The majority of Finland's 336 municipalities struggle to raise the revenue needed to provide basic services such as education, healthcare and public transport, which in Finland are the responsibility of local not national government.
Above all, these elections will be remembered for the intense rivalry between the two coalition partners, the KOK and the SDP, over the provision of public services. Both parties agree in principle that the way in which municipalities currently provide public services is not sustainable. The KOK has presented a proposal for a radical overhaul that would see the number of municipalities drop from 336 to less than 100, in order to address their budget deficits. As each municipality is individually responsible for providing public services such as healthcare and education in its area, the larger unit size would, the KOK argues, facilitate a bigger tax base and economies of scale. Moreover, the KOK suggests that the state should have the power to force municipal mergers, if the municipalities themselves fail to agree to the terms of the merger. The SDP, KESK and The Finns oppose this vehemently.
Meanwhile, the KOK has proposed to outsource some of the public services provided at municipal level to private-sector companies. The party has argued that the public sector should not have the monopoly in providing these public services, and that private-sector entities should be used in cases where this would lead to cost savings.
KOK-SDP rivalry takes centre stage
Opposing such policies became the priority for the SDP in the run-up to the elections. The SDP was able to position itself as the most credible alternative to the KOK, which meant that the KOK-SDP rivalry took centre stage in the election campaign. By pitting itself against the KOK in such a clear manner, the SDP managed to stoke the traditional right-left divide and overshadow The Finns, which focused excessively on populist rhetoric about the euro crisis. As municipal elections closely reflect the national popularity of the parties, the SDP's performance surprised on the upside given that The Finns are perceived to affect support for the SDP and the KESK more than support for the KOK. The SDP's relatively strong showing (compared with pre-election expectations) may therefore embolden the party to challenge the KOK more intensely in national parliamentary politics. A strengthened SDP does not bode well for the KOK-SDP coalition in the national government, as the more right-wing faction of the KOK grows increasingly wary of the partnership.
| Election results | |||
| (% of national vote) | |||
| Party | Municipal election 2008 | General election 2011 | Municipal election 2012 |
| National Coalition Party (Conservatives, or KOK) | 23.5 | 20.4 | 21.9 |
| Social Democratic Party (SDP) | 21.2 | 19.1 | 19.6 |
| Centre Party (KESK) | 20.1 | 15.8 | 18.7 |
| The Finns (PS) | 5.4 | 19.1 | 12.3 |
| Greens (VIHR) | 8.9 | 7.3 | 8.5 |
| Left Alliance (VAS) | 8.8 | 8.1 | 8.0 |
| Swedish People's Party (RKP) | 4.7 | 4.3 | 4.7 |
| Christian Democrats (KD) | 4.2 | 4.0 | 3.7 |
| Others | 3.2 | 1.9 | 2.6 |
| Sources: Ministry of Justice; Statistics Finland. | |||
Municipal reform remains unaddressed
Municipal elections are usually significant nationally only in so far as they gauge support for the various parties in the period between general elections. These elections were, however, more significant, because they were held at a time when a majority of municipalities are in crisis, and the municipal structure is set for its most radical overhaul to date. So politically perilous is such a reform that most parties resorted to opposing existing proposals in the hope of short-term political gains. The SDP succeeded in branding itself as the alternative to the KOK policy of forced municipal mergers, but it will have to embrace the reality that the municipal structure is in urgent need of reform. The ailing state of local economies puts increased pressure on the national government to increase its funding to them. The KOK-SDP partnership, which is the backbone of the rainbow coalition government (that also includes various smaller parties), will have to find a way to address this issue. The fact that the two parties have turned against each other in such a dramatic fashion will not make this job easier.
October 30, 2012
Jyrki Katainen
Energetic and young (still only 40 years old), Mr Katainen became prime minister in June 2011. He has led the centre-right National Coalition Party (Conservatives, or KOK) since 2005 and served as finance minister in 2007-11. Under his leadership, the KOK rose to become Finland's biggest political party for the first time. Leading the current governing coalition has been his biggest test so far. He will have to continue to accommodate demands from the left and right wings within his government and fend off attacks by the leader of the populist, right-wing opposition The Finns, Timo Soini. Implementing robust reforms will thus remain challenging. If his government fails to prevent the economy from falling back into recession and allows the Eurosceptic and anti-immigration The Finns to strengthen their foothold in Finnish politics, particularly amid growing Euroscepticism among the electorate, Mr Katainen's star will start to fade.
Timo Soini
Mr Soini is the leader of the far-right The Finns. He emerged from the 2011 election as one of the country's most popular politicians, having garnered more votes individually than anyone else. Mr Soini's anti-immigration and Eurosceptic views have brought him unprecedented popularity. If the government fails to address these genuine public concerns, Mr Soini will almost certainly see his fame increase. His popularity is built, to a large extent, on his ability to appear not like a politician, but like an ordinary citizen. His populism can prove to be a political risk, as he sometimes appears to say whatever the public wants to hear, and thus lacks consistency. However, The Finns have lost some support among the electorate since mid-2011, despite the government's ongoing support for unpopular euro zone bail-outs, after divisions emerged between more extreme and less extreme party members. Partly as a consequence, Mr Soini underperformed in the February 2012 presidential election, polling 10 percentage points less than his party's support rating. What makes his failure even more significant is the fact that Pekka Haavisto of the Green Party, whose platform was in many ways a counter-attack on The Finns' policies, scored 10 percentage points more than his party's rating. This is largely because urban and well-educated voters came out in large numbers to support Mr Haavisto as his views strongly opposed those of Mr Soini and The Finns. Nonetheless, Mr Soini's party is likely to remain an important and destabilising element throughout the forecast period.
Sauli Niinisto
Mr Niinisto, who was finance minister from 1995 to 2003 and a former long-time chairman of the KOK, won the 2012 presidential election. His victory gave the KOK an unprecedented grip on political power, holding the posts of both president and prime minister. Mr Niinisto's popularity is built on his legacy as the finance minister whose economic insight and austerity policies lifted Finland out of the severe recession of the 1990s. The head of state, although largely a ceremonial role, will nevertheless remain an important shaper of public opinion, and during a period of economic uncertainty and unstable government-the diversity of the six-party coalition means that the risk of a collapse is higher than usual-Mr Niinisto can be expected to be regarded as an important figurehead for the country. Compared with his predecessor, Tarja Halonen of the Social Democratic Party, he will offer a stronger argument in support of the EU and is likely to seek to steer Finland closer to the US by improving transatlantic relations. His background as a successful minister of finance and a former deputy head of the European Investment Bank will also have an influence. Whereas Ms Halonen tended to focus on global development issues, Mr Niinisto can be expected to direct greater attention to boosting Finnish exports in key overseas markets and trying to improve foreign investment inflows.
Jutta Urpilainen
The 37-year-old leader of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) was chosen to renew the party's tarnished image after the 2007 election defeat, but, until the election of April 2011, had been seen as failing in this task. At the election, however, she consolidated her position, as the SDP emerged as the second-largest party. She was consequently appointed finance minister. This has undoubtedly proven to be the biggest challenge of her political career so far. Many people were initially sceptical of Ms Urpilainen's knowledge of economic policy and therefore her ability to push for stricter conditions for the euro zone bail-out mechanisms, which, during her general election campaign, she had promised to do. However, she alleviated these fears by successfully pushing for collateral for Finland's contribution to the second loan facility for Greece in early 2012 as well as to the bail-out of Spanish banks in July 2012.
September 18, 2012
Official name
Republic of Finland
Form of state
Parliamentary republic
Legal system
Based on the constitution of 1919 (updated in 2000)
National legislature
Unicameral Eduskunta (parliament) of 200 members directly elected for a four-year term; the president is empowered to dissolve the Eduskunta at the prime minister's request
Electoral system
Universal direct suffrage over the age of 18; the d'Hondt system of proportional representation is used in 15 multimember constituencies
National elections
The last elections were in April 2011 (legislative) and February 2012 (presidential); the next legislative elections are due by April 2015 and the next presidential by February 2018
Head of state
President, who is declared elected if he or she receives an absolute majority of votes cast in the first round; failing this, a second round is held between the two leading candidates. Sauli Niinisto took office on March 1st 2012 for his first six-year term
National government
Council of State (Valtioneuvosto), which consists of the prime minister and up to 18 ministers. The government that was formed on June 17th 2011 is a coalition of the National Coalition Party, the Social Democratic Party, the Left Alliance, the Green Party, the Swedish People's Party and the Christian Democrats
Main political parties
National Coalition Party (Conservatives, or KOK; 44 seats); Social Democratic Party (SDP; 42 seats); The Finns party (PS; 39 seats); Centre Party (KESK; 36 seats); Left Alliance (VAS; 14 seats); Green Party (VIHR; 10 seats); Swedish People's Party (RKP; 9 seats); Christian Democrats of Finland (KD; 6 seats)
Council of Ministers
Prime minister: Jyrki Katainen (KOK)
Key ministers
Agriculture & forestry: Jari Koskinen (KOK)
Communications & housing: Krista Kiuru (SDP)
Culture & sport: Paavo Arhinmaki (VAS)
Defence: Stefan Wallin (RKP)
Economic affairs: Jan Vapaavuori (KOK)
Education & science: Jukka Gustafsson (SDP)
European affairs & foreign trade: Alexander Stubb (KOK)
Environment: Ville Niinisto (VIHR)
Finance: Jutta Urpilainen (SDP)
Foreign affairs: Erkki Tuomioja (SDP)
Health & social services: Maria Guzenina-Richardson (SDP)
Interior: Paivi Rasanen (KD)
International development: Heidi Hautala (VIHR)
Justice: Anna-Maja Henriksson (RKP)
Labour: Lauri Ihalainen (SDP)
Public administration & local government: Henna Virkkunen (KOK)
Social affairs & health: Paula Risikko (KOK)
Transport: Merja Kyllonen (VAS)
Central bank governor
Erkki Liikanen
December 01, 2012
Outlook for 2013-17
Review
December 01, 2012
Fact sheet
| Annual data | 2011 | Historical averages (%) | 2007-11 |
| Population (m) | 5.4 | Population growth | 0.4 |
| GDP (US$ bn; market exchange rate) | 263.4 | Real GDP growth | 0.5 |
| GDP (US$ bn; purchasing power parity) | 202.6 | Real domestic demand growth | 1.3 |
| GDP per head (US$; market exchange rate) | 49,093 | Inflation | 2.4 |
| GDP per head (US$; purchasing power parity) | 37,768 | Current-account balance (% of GDP) | 1.9 |
| Exchange rate (av) €:US$ | 0.72 | FDI inflows (% of GDP) | 1.5 |
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Background: Finland has been an independent republic since 1917. Although its language is different, its social and legal system is similar to that of other Nordic countries. There have traditionally been three main political parties, the Centre Party, the Social Democratic Party (SDP) and the National Coalition Party (Conservatives, or KOK). These were joined by The Finns, which emerged as the third-largest party at the election in April 2011. Other parties are the Left Alliance (VAS), the Green Party (VIHR) and the Swedish People's Party (RKP). Finland joined the EU in 1995 and the euro zone in 1999. It is an active member of the UN.
Political structure: The head of state is the president, who is elected for a six-year term in a two-round popular ballot. The Eduskunta (parliament) is elected by citizens aged over 18 and has 200 members, who serve for four years. The most recent election took place in April 2011. A six-party coalition of the KOK (44 seats), the SDP (42), the VAS (14), the VIHR (ten), the RKP (nine) and the Christian Democrats of Finland (KD; six) took office in June 2011.
Policy issues: The success of The Finns at the general election influences the policy agenda. A controversial issue is and will remain loans to weaker euro zone states, which the party opposes. Finland secured loan collateral for its contributions to the second Greek bail-out and the bail-out of Spanish banks. Finland agreed to the new EU fiscal treaty despite concerns about the treaty's compatibility with the Finnish constitution. The role of free markets in the economy will be the subject of general debate, with The Finns and the SDP sceptical of their benefits, but no major policy change is likely. The coalition will try to narrow the budget deficit, although it is small compared with most EU countries. Despite disagreements, particularly between the KOK and the SDP, compromise has been found on tax rises and public spending cuts. Other important issues are energy, environmental policy, entrepreneurship, employment, research and education. Apart from euro zone loans, other foreign policy issues are relations with NATO (of which Finland is not a member) and with Russia.
Taxation: Corporation tax was cut to 24.5% at the start of 2012. Standard value-added tax (VAT) is set to be raised from 23% to 24% in January 2013. The top rate of personal income tax is 52%. Capital gains tax is 30% (32% for gains above EUR50,000).
Foreign trade: Exports and imports of goods and services accounted for 40.7% and 41.4% of GDP, respectively, in 2011. The EU remains Finland's most important trading zone. The current account entered into a small deficit in 2011.
| Major exports 2011 | % of total | Major imports 2011 | % of total |
| Manufactured goods | 35.9 | Machinery and transport equipment | 29.9 |
| Machinery and transport equipment | 29.8 | Mineral fuels, lubricants, and related materials | 21.8 |
| Mineral fuels, lubricants, and related materials | 10.1 | Manufactured goods | 21.3 |
| Chemicals and related products, n.e.s. | 8.5 | Chemicals and related products, n.e.s. | 10.3 |
| Main destinations of exports 2011 | % of total | Main origins of imports 2011 | % of total |
| Sweden | 11.8 | Russia | 18.5 |
| Germany | 9.9 | Sweden | 14.5 |
| Russia | 9.2 | Germany | 14.3 |
| Netherlands | 6.7 | Netherlands | 8.0 |
| EU | 55.6 | EU | 61.5 |
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December 01, 2012
Data and charts: Annual trends charts
December 01, 2012
Finland: Country outlook
FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT
POLITICAL STABILITY: The governing coalition consists of the National Coalition Party (Conservatives, or KOK), the Social Democratic Party (SDP), the Left Alliance (VAS), the Green Party (VIHR), the Swedish People's Party (RKP) and the Christian Democrats (KD). The Economist Intelligence Unit's central forecast is that the coalition will stay in office until its term ends in April 2015. However, the diversity of the coalition, and in particular the difference between the right-of-centre KOK and left-of-centre SDP and Left Alliance, means that the risk of a government collapse will be higher than usual in traditionally stable Finland. Budget savings for 2013-15 agreed in March 2012 showed that the KOK and the SDP can compromise on divisive issues such as tax increases.
ELECTION WATCH: At the municipal elections on October 28th 2012, the KOK came first (21.9% of the vote), followed by the SDP (19.6%), the Centre Party (18.7%) and The Finns (12.3%). Although The Finns made large gains (up from 5.4% in 2008), they failed to repeat their surprise result at the general election, as they focused excessively on the euro zone crisis rather than local issues. The rivalry between the KOK and the SDP took centre stage. However, we do not expect this to lead to an early general election (the next one is not due until April 2015).
INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS: Finland is the only Nordic member of the euro zone. This has caused controversy, as popular opposition to bail-outs of vulnerable members is strong, reflected in support for the Eurosceptic The Finns. The coalition tried to reassure the public by insisting on (and eventually being granted in early 2012) collateral for Finland's contribution to the second loan facility for Greece and, in July 2012, for the planned bail-out of Spanish banks. Finland's approval of the fiscal treaty agreed by most EU members in late 2011 and early 2012 was controversial within the coalition. The tensions highlight that although Finland remains in favour of EU and euro zone membership, it is likely to maintain a tough stance on debtor countries like Spain and Greece.
POLICY TRENDS: The breadth of the coalition from right to left means that domestic policymaking will be harder than usual. The coalition agreement focuses mainly on holding down the budget deficit with tax rises and spending cuts. The government also hopes to make efficiency gains through local government reform, such as by merging municipalities. The KOK has been influenced by a paper published by the Confederation of Finnish Industries (EK) in September 2010, designed to improve tax and other conditions for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Although the SDP opposes many of the proposals, the government has agreed on some measures to support business, including:
ECONOMIC GROWTH: Economic growth is estimated at a meagre 0.1% in 2012. We expect growth of 0.3% in 2013 (recently revised down from 0.9% expected previously). Although weak by Finnish standards, these growth rates are still well above the euro zone averages for both years (-0.4% and -0.2%, respectively). We believe that real GDP growth will then pick up slowly, to average 1.8% a year in 2014-17. Despite Finland's relatively low exposure to the euro zone sovereign debt and banking crisis, a further intensification that could lead to the break-up of the euro area poses a downside risk to our forecast. In this scenario, exports would collapse and Finland would fall into a potentially protracted recession.
INFLATION: We expect EU harmonised inflation to fall from an estimated 3.1% in 2012 to 2.5% in 2013, well above the euro area average (2.4% and 2.1%, respectively). Inflation should moderate further on average in 2014-17, to 2.4%.
EXCHANGE RATES: Although not our central forecast, there is a high risk that several countries will leave the euro zone in the next two years. Such fears have led to flight from euro assets and partly explain the volatility of the currency, which depreciated from above US$1.40:EUR1 in August 2011 to a two-year low of US$1.21:EUR1 in July 2012. It then strengthened moderately to US$1.28:EUR1 in mid-November, in response to central bank intervention. Even assuming that the euro survives in its present form, it will remain volatile owing to shifting risk appetite, economic weakness and lower reserve accumulation by Asian economies. We forecast average exchange rates of US$1.26:EUR1 in 2013 and US$1.25:EUR1 in 2014-17, but sharp movements in either direction remain a significant risk.
EXTERNAL SECTOR: We forecast that the current account will remain in deficit (albeit not a large one) in 2013-17, after reaching an estimated 1.4% of GDP in 2012. A small surplus on merchandise trade should turn into deficit in the second half of the forecast period, as we expect import growth to exceed export growth on average in 2013-17. The income account should return to surplus, but this will be outweighed by small but persistent deficits on services and current transfers.
December 01, 2012
Country forecast overview: Highlights
December 01, 2012
Land area
303,815 sq km, as well as 34,330 sq km inland water; of the total area, 11.5% is cultivated and 68% is covered by forests
Population
5.4m (December 31st 2010)
Main towns
Population (December 31st 2008)
Helsinki (capital): 576,632
Espoo: 241,565
Tampere: 209,552
Vantaa: 195,397
Climate
Temperate, with long cold winters and short warm summers
Weather in Helsinki
Warmest month, July (1971-2000, average daily minimum 13.7°C and maximum 20.9°C); coldest month, February (1971-2000, average daily minimum -7.7°C and maximum -2.2°C); driest month, May (1971-2000, average rainfall 32mm); wettest month, August (1971-2000, average rainfall 78mm)
Languages
Finnish and Swedish
Weights and measures
Metric system
Currency
The euro (€)
Time
2 hours ahead of GMT
Public holidays
January 1st and 6th, Good Friday, Easter Monday, May 1st, Ascension Day, Midsummer's Eve, December 6th, 24th, 25th and 26th
March 13, 2012