Eritrea

Politics:

• Analysis

  Eritrea politics: Quick View - AU to examine case of journalist detained wi

  Event

  The case of an imprisoned Swedish-Eritrean journalist, Dawit Isaak, will be investigated by the main human rights body of the African Union (AU), the African Commission on Human and Peoples' Rights (ACHPR).

  Analysis

  Reporters sans frontières, an international media watchdog, announced in mid-March that the AU's main human rights body would investigate the case of Mr Dawit, who has been detained without charge since September 2001. The case was referred to the ACHPR in October in a petition based on the principle of habeas corpus, which requires a person under arrest to be brought before a court with legal representation. Although the Eritrean authorities accept the principle, it is routinely ignored. The ACHPR is expected to request an explanation from the Eritrean government for this breach of Eritrean law, as well as of several African and international human rights conventions that the country is signatory to.

  Mr Dawit was detained by the authorities for writing articles critical of the government and has been held incommunicado ever since. He was one of ten independent journalists who were arrested in 2001, along with 11 prominent members of the ruling party, the People's Front for Democracy and Justice (PFDJ), who criticised the president, Isaias Afewerki, and called for democratic reform. Eritrea has for many years been ranked among the worst places to be a journalist-all independent media were closed down in 2001-and the government is routinely condemned by international human rights organisations as one of the world's most repressive.

  The Swedish office of Reporters sans frontières welcomed the development, suggesting that it would "increase the pressure on the Eritrean government" and make the case an "African issue". Despite this, the AU's involvement is unlikely to secure Mr Dawit's release. The regional body's censure has had little impact on the regime's decisions in the past. The first set of UN sanctions against Eritrea-introduced in late 2009 in response to its support for armed opposition groups in the Horn of Africa-was imposed at the behest of the AU. However, a UN Monitoring Group report in mid-2012 found that Eritrea had continued to play a destabilising role in the subregion, including by deploying rebel groups seeking to destabilise Ethiopia via Somalia, selling weapons to Sudan-based smuggling operations and training Afar rebels, who were responsible for the killing of five European tourists in Ethiopia in January 2012. The country's dismal human rights record is, therefore, set to persist, cementing the high level of public discontent with the regime and continuing to curtail heavily its access to foreign aid.

  March 20, 2013

• Background

  Eritrea: Key figures

  Isaias Afewerki

  State president and chairman of the central and executive councils of the People's Front for Democracy and Justice (PFDJ).

  General Sebhat Ephrem

  Defence minister and member of the PFDJ's Central Council.

  Tesfai Gebreselassie

  Energy and mines minister, and member of the PFDJ's Executive Council.

  Osman Saleh

  Foreign affairs minister and member of the PFDJ's Central Council.

  Ali Abdu Ahmed

  Information minister and member of the PFDJ's Central Council.

  Berhane Abrehe

  Finance minister and member of the PFDJ's Central Council.

  Democracy index (for methodology, see Appendix)

  The Economist Intelligence Unit's 2008 democracy index ranks Eritrea 154th out of 167 countries, putting it among the countries considered "authoritarian regimes". This designation includes other African states such as the Central African Republic, Chad, Angola, Rwanda and Zimbabwe. Overall, Eritrea has the fifth-poorest ranking in the Africa region behind the Central African Republic, Chad, Equatorial Guinea and the Democratic Republic of Congo. The country scores lowest in the political participation and civil liberties categories; the score of zero in the electoral process category is due to the fact that Eritrea is a one party-state and has not held elections since the country's founding in 1993. Opposition is not tolerated and all independent media were closed down in 2001. Numerous journalists and individuals speaking against the government have been arrested in recent years with no trial and most remain in detention without access to international agencies or family members.

  Democracy index
  	Overall score	Overall rank	Electoral process	Government functioning	Political participation	Political culture	Civil liberties	Regime type
  Eritrea	2.31	154	0.00	2.14	1.11	6.25	2.06	Authoritarian
  Overall and component scores are on a scale of 0 to 10; overall rank is out of 167 countries.

  Download text file (csv format)

  June 27, 2008

• Structure

  Eritrea: Political structure

  Official name

  Eritrea

  Form of state

  Unitary state

  Legal system

  A national constitution was formally proclaimed on May 24th 1997

  National legislature

  Transitional National Assembly of 150, composed of members of the ruling People's Front for Democracy and Justice (PFDJ)

  National elections

  Last election February 1987 (legislative, within Ethiopia); election scheduled for December 2001 postponed; new date to be decided by electoral commission (established January 2002)

  Head of state

  President, elected by the Transitional National Assembly

  National government

  The president and the Council of Ministers; last reshuffle in March 2009

  Main political parties

  The People's Front for Democracy and Justice (PFDJ), which grew out of the Eritrean People's Liberation Front, is the ruling and, in effect, the only legal party; in January 2002 the Transitional National Assembly accepted the principle of political pluralism but did not pass a law on political parties

  Key ministers

  President: Isaias Afewerki

  Agriculture: Arefaine Berhe

  Defence: Sebhat Ephrem

  Education: Semere Russom

  Energy & mines: Ahmed Haj Ali

  Finance & development: Berhane Abrehe

  Foreign affairs: Osman Mohamed Saleh

  Health: Amina Nurhusein

  Information: Ali Abdu

  Justice: Fawzia Hashim

  Labour & welfare: Salma Hassen

  Land, water & environment: Tesfai Gebreselassie

  Maritime resources: Saleh Meki

  Tourism: Askalu Menkerios

  Trade & industry: Vacant

  Transport & communications: Woldenkiel Abraha

  Central bank governor

  Tekie Beyene

  November 01, 2012

Economy:

• Background

  Eritrea: Economic background

  Real gross domestic product by sector
  (% share of GDP)
  	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006
  Agriculture	12.9	14.7	14.0	22.6	17.5
  Industry	25.0	25.3	25.9	22.6	23.0
  Services	62.1	60.0	60.1	54.8	59.5
  Source: World Bank.

  Download text file (csv format)

  June 27, 2008

• Structure

  Eritrea: Economic structure

  Economic structure: Annual indicators

  	2008a	2009b	2010b	2011b	2012b
  GDP at market prices (Nfa bn)	19.0	30.1	36.0	45.3	51.9
  GDP (US$ m)	1,233.5	1,959.0	2,341.8	2,946.0	3,378.0
  Real GDP growth (%)	-9.8	3.6a	4.0a	17.0	2.5
  Consumer price inflation (av; %)	19.9b	20.0	18.0	20.0	17.0
  Population (m)	4.9b	5.1	5.3	5.4	5.6
  Exports of goods fob (US$ m)	23.4b	26.2	29.0	415.4	378.2
  Imports of goods fob (US$ m)	615.8b	590.0	689.5	900.0	953.1
  Current-account balance (US$ m)	-192.5b	-147.3	-282.3	-128.0	-212.7
  Foreign-exchange reserves excl gold (US$ m)	57.9	90.0a	114.2a	114.8a	163.2
  Total external debt (US$ m)	961.5	1,018.9a	1,009.8a	1,006.4a	1,003.9
  Exchange rate (av) Nfa:US$	15.4	15.4a	15.4a	15.4a	15.4
  a Actual. b Economist Intelligence Unit estimates.

  Download the numbers in Excel

  Origins of gross domestic product 2009a	% of total	Components of gross domestic product 2007a	% of total
  Agriculture	14.4	Private consumption	86.2
  Industry	22.2	Government consumption	31.4
  Services	63.4	Gross domestic investment	10.6
  		Exports of goods & services	6.3
  		Imports of goods & services	34.5
  Principal exports 2003	US$ m	Principal imports 2003	US$ m
  Food & live animals	2.4	Food & live animals	175.2
  Raw materials	2.1	Manufactured goods	104.0
  Manufactured goods	1.8	Machinery & transport equipment	97.2
  		Chemicals & chemical products	26.2
  Main destinations of exports 2008b	% of total	Main origins of imports 2008b	% of total
  Italy	35.2	Saudi Arabia	10.0
  China	26.7	Italy	6.1
  France	9.4	China	5.0
  		Russia	3.0
  a World Bank. b Derived from partners' trade returns.

  Download the numbers in Excel

  Download text file (csv format)

  November 01, 2012

• Outlook

  Eritrea: Country outlook

  Eritrea: Country outlook

  FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT

  OVERVIEW: Politics in Eritrea will continue to be dominated by the president, Isaias Afewerki, and his People's Front for Democracy and Justice (PFDJ). However, discontent within the military will pose a growing threat to Mr Isaias's rule. There will be little improvement in Eritrea's strained relations with the three other states in the Horn of Africa-Ethiopia, Somalia and Djibouti. The sanctions by the UN Security Council (UNSC) on Eritrea-imposed in 2009 and 2011 in response to the country's role in destabilising the region-are likely to remain in place, notwithstanding its reduced support for the Somali Islamist militia, al-Shabab. The large-scale diversion of resources and manpower to the military is likely to continue. However, a recently announced privatisation scheme has created the prospect of some further moves to open up the economy. Real GDP growth is forecast at 8% in 2013 and 6.5% in 2014, driven by activity in the mining sector. It could be higher if the government follows through on plans to begin opening up the economy. The current-account deficit is forecast at 5.3% of GDP in 2013 and 6.1% of GDP in 2014 as imports continue to dwarf exports, despite steady growth in mining activity, and remittances are curtailed slightly by the UN sanctions.

  DOMESTIC POLITICS: The Economist Intelligence Unit's central scenario is that Eritrean political affairs will continue to be dominated by the PFDJ, the country's only political party, and Mr Isaias. The president-assisted by a small circle of senior advisers and military commanders-will continue to exercise almost complete control over the political scene, and the National Assembly will remain little more than a talking shop. The PFDJ's autocratic style of government will mean that all forms of opposition will be harshly suppressed and the steady flow of Eritreans seeking asylum outside the country will continue. Domestic dissatisfaction with the status quo, particularly with the high level of military conscription and economic hardship, is unlikely to wane. However, such discontent is unlikely to be displayed given the strict level of government control on all aspects of daily life. The opposition, based outside the country, is likely to remain divided and largely ineffectual. The main prospect for a transfer of power is from a change in the military's affiliations and a weakening in its loyalty to Mr Isaias. The coup attempt on January 21st highlighted that there is considerable discontent within the military (although it remains unclear whether this extends to its senior ranks) and pointed to a modest increase in the likelihood of regime change triggered by military intervention in the 2013-14 forecast period. Despite the political pluralism enshrined in the national constitution, Eritrea has never held an election for the legislature or the presidency. National elections planned for 2001 have been postponed indefinitely and the government's deeply entrenched authoritarianism indicates that there is virtually no chance that they will take place in the forecast period.

  INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS: Eritrea's relations with most of the international community, but particularly the three other states in the Horn of Africa, are expected to remain strained in 2013-14. The deeply entrenched bitterness that has long characterised the country's relations with Ethiopia is underpinned by the unresolved border dispute between the two countries and Ethiopia's long-standing non-compliance with the verdict of the UN-backed Eritrea-Ethiopia Boundary Commission (EEBC) in 2002. Ethiopia's position as a key ally of the US and other Western governments in the volatile Horn of Africa has meant that these countries-and, indeed, the UN-have not acted on its non-compliance with the EEBC ruling. Little change is expected on this front in 2013-14. Tensions between the two countries increased in March 2012 following an incursion by Ethiopian armed forces into Eritrean territory-the first Ethiopian attack on Eritrean soil since the 1998-2000 border war-and an implicit threat from Ethiopia that it will conduct similar sorties for as long as Eritrea remains a base for Ethiopian rebel groups. Despite this new level of antagonism, another war between Ethiopia and Eritrea is unlikely. Eritrea certainly has little incentive to start a conflict that it is almost certain to lose, while Ethiopia's new prime minister, Hailemariam Desalegn, is likely to focus his attention on consolidating his domestic support base, at least over the short term. Eritrea's support for armed opposition groups in the Horn of Africa, Sudan and-possibly-Uganda, combined with the country's reluctance even to acknowledge its border dispute with Djibouti, led the UNSC to impose a second set of sanctions on it in December 2011. These require international companies operating in the country's mining sector to ensure that funds from the sector are not used to destabilise the region (something that is likely to be difficult in practice, although enforcement appears to be fairly lax). They also call on member states to ensure that no illicit means are used to collect the 2% "diaspora tax" that Eritrea levies on its citizens working abroad (which is thought to be the most significant source of revenue for the ruling party). The sanctions expand upon those imposed on Eritrea by the UN in 2009, consisting of an arms embargo as well as asset freezes and travel bans on some Eritrean political and military leaders. Both sets of sanctions were imposed at the behest of African governments. This is significant given the customary reluctance of African heads of state to take a stand against their counterparts, and offers a notable indication of Eritrea's regional isolation. The latest report of the UN Monitoring Group on Eritrea and Somalia, published in mid-2012, said that Eritrea has reduced its direct support for al-Shabab in response to greater international scrutiny, as well as friction between the Eritrean government and al-Shabab's leaders. However it also found that Eritrea had continued to play a destabilising role in the region, including by deploying Ethiopian rebel groups via Somalia and selling weapons to Sudan-based smuggling operations. In line with this, we expect that the UN sanctions on Eritrea are unlikely to be lifted in the near future.

  POLICY TRENDS: The large-scale diversion of resources and manpower to the military is expected to continue in the forecast period, partly through an indefinite national service requirement. This will retard progress towards the achievement of economic normalisation and growth, and will also continue to contribute to macroeconomic imbalances, notably high inflation, foreign-exchange shortages and unsustainable public debt. The government's announcement in late 2012 that it would privatise 32 state-owned manufacturing firms marks a significant move away from what is, in effect, a command economy dominated by the PFDJ-the state's alter ego. Some further moves to open up the economy are now likely, although the authorities' aversion to foreign investment (except in the mining sector) is expected to persist. Changes could also be made to Eritrea's mining law, under which the government has the right to acquire a 10% non-contributing stake in all mining operations in the country and to buy a further 30% stake. These changes would allow the terms of mining agreements to vary on a per-case basis. This follows the negotiation of an agreement with South Boulder Mines (Australia), which is developing the high-quality Colluli potash development, under which the government will receive 50% of profits from the mine but bear none of the costs of developing it. The agreement reflects the specific nature of the Colluli project, notably its high profit potential and low capital costs, and the 10-30 template is likely to continue to be applied in most cases. Nevertheless, the Colluli agreement has set a precedent for the government's interest to be negotiated on a project-by-project basis, boosting policy uncertainty. Food insecurity will remain widespread, despite the government's considerable efforts to redress this, and Eritrea will require significant amounts of food aid, although the regime will continue to deny this. The government's aversion to handouts will mean that any food aid that does arrive will be sold in the marketplace or distributed through "food for work" programmes. The lack of official statistics will continue to obfuscate the severity of Eritrea's food insecurity, as it does in other areas of the economy. National budgets are not published, which inhibits assessments of fiscal policy. The IMF estimates that Eritrea has suffered from chronic fiscal deficits since independence, with an average deficit of 18% of GDP in 2000-10. This has led to a highly unsustainable public debt burden, most recently estimated by the Fund at 142% of GDP in 2009. In 2013-14 public revenue will be boosted by the mining sector, from which the government will benefit through tax collection and its 40% stakes in the Bisha and Koka gold mines. This is expected to lead to a narrowing of the fiscal deficit from an estimated 10.8% of GDP in 2012 to 9.7% of GDP in 2013 and 9.4% of GDP in 2014. The deficit will fall more sharply if the recently mooted privatisation programme goes ahead as planned.

  ECONOMIC GROWTH: The diversion of resources to the military, negligible foreign investment (outside the mining sector) and declining aid inflows, driven by Eritrea's policy of self-reliance, will continue to constrain the country's economic performance severely. Nevertheless, the economy is forecast to grow by 8% in 2013 and 6.5% in 2014 driven by the onset of copper production at the Bisha mine and gold production at the Koka mine, as well as continued strong growth in exploration activity and investment in the sector. Growth is unlikely to be affected by the latest round of UN sanctions, which are not stringent enough to affect Eritrea's mining sector in any significant way. It is also unlikely to result in substantial improvements in the living standards of the average Eritrean, given the lack of economic opportunities in sectors other than mining, unless the government were to defy expectations and channel a large share of the revenue from mining into social services, agriculture and infrastructure. The growth outlook could improve substantially if further moves are made to open up the economy, and could worsen if drastic changes are made to the mining policy regime.

  EXTERNAL ACCOUNT: Exports are forecast to grow steadily in 2013-14, driven by the onset of copper production at the Bisha mine and gold production at the Koka mine. This will be offset by strong growth in imports as investment in mining boosts demand for capital goods. The surplus on the service account is expected to fall as imports of mining-related services rise. Income debits are expected to fluctuate in line with revenue from mining. Remittances from the diaspora-a significant source of revenue for the PFDJ-are expected to grow slowly, having slipped below 10% of GDP in 2012 as various countries began to implement the 2011 UN sanctions and scrutinise the methods used to collect the 2% "diaspora tax" levied on Eritrean citizens working abroad. Overall, the current-account deficit is forecast to narrow from 5.7% of GDP in 2012 to 5.3% of GDP in 2013 (as the trade deficit grows in nominal terms but shrinks as a share of GDP) before widening to 6.1% of GDP in 2014 (as import growth significantly outweighs export growth).

  January 24, 2013

Country Briefing

Land area

124,320 sq km, including the Dahlak archipelago

Population

5.58m (2012 UN estimate)

Main towns

Population in 2012 (World Gazetteer estimates):

Asmara (capital): 697,013

Assab: 101,284

Keren: 82,178

Massawa: 53,090

Mendefera: 25,332

Climate

Temperate on highland plateau, hot and arid on coast

Weather in coastal area

Hottest months, June-August, 30-45°C; coldest months, October-February, 24-32°C

Weather in highland area

Hottest month May, 30°C maximum; coldest months, December-February, 0°C minimum

Languages

Three official languages-Tigrinya, Arabic and English; other languages include Tigre, Saho, Afar, Kunama, Bilen, Italian, Amharic and Nara

Measures

Metric system

Currency

The nakfa (Nfa), the exchange rate has been fixed at Nfa15.38:US$1 since 2005

Time

3 hours ahead of GMT

Public holidays

January 1st (New Year's Day), May 24th (Independence Day), June 20th (Martyrs' Day), September 1st (anniversary of the start of war of independence), September 11th (Eritrean New Year), September 27th (Meskel), December 25th (Christmas), Orthodox Christmas, Orthodox Epiphany, Id al-Fitr, Id al-Adha, Mauled

February 01, 2013