Djibouti

Politics:

• Analysis

  Djibouti politics: Quick View - Security forces shoot unarmed youth protest

  Event

  Human rights organisations have strongly condemned Djiboutian security forces after they opened fire in late December on a peaceful demonstration by children and young people in the coastal town of Obock, killing a schoolboy and wounding many others.

  Analysis

  The young protesters-mainly primary and secondary school students-were demonstrating over the lack of sporting infrastructure in Obock during a multi-disciplinary sports event that was being hosted in the city by the minister of youth and sport.

  The youths reportedly took to the streets during the afternoon as the minister was due to arrive; by the end of the day a 14-year-old boy, Hafez Mohamed Hassan, was dead, another student was in a coma and 20 further young people were injured, several seriously. Human rights group report that around 100 police officers who had been dispatched from the capital to accompany the minister were involved in the repression of the protests. In addition to the casualties, another 20 young people were reported to have been detained by police and taken to the capital.

  Since the shooting, citizens across the country-including the mothers of the children killed or injured during the Obock protests, joined by other residents of the town-have taken to the streets to protest against the heavy-handed behaviour of the security forces. Several human rights groups have called for an independent inquiry into the incident.

  The episode has highlighted ongoing international and regional concerns about the restrictions on democratic freedoms in Djibouti. Anti-government protests in the past have been heavily suppressed by security forces, and it does not appear that the Obock incident alone could shift the government's stance. However, it did provide new fuel for a disgruntled populace, and may pre-empt further protests and greater popular pressure on the government for reform and development.

  January 15, 2013

• Background

  Djibouti: Key figures

  Ismael Omar Guelleh

  President since May 1999, Mr Guelleh is an Issa Somali who was chief of staff to the previous president and head of the security services. He has been in positions of power since Djibouti gained independence in 1977, and after the 1999 election quickly acquired an unfavourable human rights reputation, particularly with regard to his treatment of the media and the opposition.

  Dileita Mohamed Dileita

  Appointed prime minister in March 2001, Mr Dileita is an Afar from Mr Guelleh's entourage. He was formerly ambassador to Ethiopia.

  Mahamoud Ali Youssouf

  Foreign minister, an ethnic Afar and former ambassador to Egypt. Foreign policy initiatives come from the president's office.

  Ali Mohamed Daoud

  Former agriculture minister and president of the Front pour la restauration de l'unite et de la democratie (FRUD) since 1997. Re-elected unopposed in May 2007.

  Moussa Ahmed Idriss

  An independent journalist and one of the main opposition figures in Djibouti, Mr Idriss ran unsuccessfully for the presidency in 1999, winning 38% of the vote, according to the official results.

  Ahmed Youssouf Houmed

  Former government minister and head of the Afar Alliance republicaine pour la democratie (ARD), the strongest party in the opposition alliance, the Union pour l'alternance democratique (UAD).

  Daher Ahmed Farah

  Journalist, director of a weekly newspaper, Le Renouveau Djiboutien, head of the opposition Mouvement pour le renouveau democratique et le developpement (MRD) and local representative of a France-based media watchdog, Reporters sans frontieres. Mr Farah has been imprisoned on many occasions because of the views expressed in his newspaper, which was closed by the government in May 2007.

  The judiciary

  Djibouti's constitution and legal system are based largely on the French model. The judicial system consists of courts of first instance, a High Court of Appeal, and a Supreme Court. Each of the five administrative districts also has a customary court. The legal system is a blend of French codified law, sharia (Islamic law) and customary law. Although the constitution guarantees the presumption of innocence and the right to a fair trial, the judiciary is widely regarded as being susceptible to executive influence, in part because of the lack of tenure for judges and their dependence on political patronage. There have been widespread reports of human rights abuses and failures by the courts to prosecute alleged perpetrators. The Constitutional Council has consistently and summarily quashed opposition claims of electoral improprieties by the ruling government coalition.

  The legislature

  The president is elected by universal suffrage for a six-year term. The 65-member legislature, the National Assembly, is elected every five years. Constitutional reforms in 1992 brought multiparty elections—although only four parties were legally recognised—and permitted the fielding of other candidates in the presidential election. The ban on new parties was lifted in September 2002, in time for the general election of 2003, but there has been little progress since then.

  Media services

  The media in Djibouti are largely state-controlled. The only newspapers now being freely distributed in Djibouti are the state-owned biweekly La Nation and the Arabic-language Al Qaran, the mouthpiece of the RPP. In 2007 the government closed the country's only opposition newspaper, Le Renouveau Djiboutien. Djibouti has become one of the few African countries where no private newspapers are regularly published. The state also has a monopoly over domestic radio and television broadcasting. The FM transmitter of Radio France Internationale, the main source of information critical of the government, was closed down by the government in January 2005.

  Democracy index (for methodology, see Appendix)

  The Economist Intelligence Unit's 2008 democracy index ranks Djibouti 152nd out of 167 countries, putting it among the countries considered "authoritarian regimes". This designation includes other African states such as Nigeria, Cameroon, Angola and Zimbabwe. However, Djibouti is poorly placed even within this category, ranking behind all of these nations. On a slightly more positive outlook, the country scores moderately in the political culture category reflecting the fact that, formally, Djibouti boasts a multiparty democracy.

  However in practice the democratic process in Djibouti remains heavily constrained. After its failures to make any headway in the 2003 general election, 2005 presidential election and 2006 local elections, the opposition has continued to be suppressed and ignored. A number of high profile demonstrations to publicise the arrest of trade union and opposition leaders and the alleged suppression of human rights and democratic processes were banned by the government in 2006.

  In almost all categories of the democracy index, Djibouti fares dismally. All real power continues to rest in the hands of the president, Ismael Omar Guelleh, and his party, the Rassemblement populaire pour le progres (RPP). The government banned all opposition rallies in the run up to the 2008 general election and the opposition UAD coalition boycotted the election claiming that the voting system guaranteed victory for the UMP.

  Democracy index
  	Overall rank	Overall score	Electoral process	Government functioning	Political participation	Political culture	Civil liberties	Regime type
  Djibouti	152	2.37	2.50	1.43	0.56	5.00	2.35	Authoritarian
  Overall and component scores are on a scale of 0 to 10; overall rank is out of 167 countries.

  Download text file (csv format)

  May 29, 2008

• Structure

  Djibouti: Political structure

  Official name

  République de Djibouti

  Form of state

  Unitary republic

  Legal system

  Based on the Napoleonic Code; a referendum in September 1992 endorsed a new constitution, the presidential term limit was increased from two terms to three by a constitutional amendment in April 2010

  National legislature

  National Assembly; 65 deputies, elected by universal suffrage, serve a five-year term; the UMP coalition holds all of the seats

  National elections

  February 2008 (legislative) and April 2011 (presidential); next elections due in 2013 (legislative) and April 2016 (presidential)

  Head of state

  President, elected by universal suffrage; serves a term of five years (previously six)

  National government

  The president and his appointed Council of Ministers

  Main political parties

  The 2008 legislative election was uncontested, with a single list put forward by the Union pour la majorité présidentielle (UMP), dominated by the president's Rassemblement populaire pour le progrès (RPP), the former sole legal party, but also containing the Front pour la restauration de l'unité et de la démocratie (FRUD), Parti populaire social démocrate (PPSD) and Union des partisans de la réforme (UPR); the Parti nationale démocratique (PND) was part of the UMP until 2011, when it joined the opposition; the legislative and presidential elections were boycotted by the opposition coalition, Union pour l'alternance démocratique (UAD), dominated by Alliance républicaine pour la démocratie (ARD) but also containing Mouvement pour le renouveau démocratique et le développement (MRD) and Union djiboutienne pour la démocratie et la justice (UDJ); personality and clan are more significant than party labels; a new opposition party, the Rassemblement pour l'action, la démocratie et le développement (RADD), was formed in early 2012, and another, the Centre des démocrates unifiés (CDU), was formed in late 2012

  Key ministers

  President: Ismaël Omar Guelleh

  Prime minister: Dileita Mohamed Dileita

  Secretary of state for national solidarity: Zarah Youssouf Kayad

  Secretary of state for housing: Amina Abdi Aden

  Secretary of state for youth & sports: Djam Elmi Okieh

  Agriculture, livestock & fisheries: Mohamed Ahmed Awaleh

  Culture & communication: Houssein Ahmed Abdi

  Defence: Mohamed Kamil Abdoulkader

  Economy, finance & planning: Ilyas Moussa Dawaleh

  Education: Ahmed Hassan Moussa

  Energy, water & natural resources: Fouad Ahmed Aye

  Equipment & transport: Mohamed Ibrahim Moussa Balal

  Foreign affairs & international co-operation: Mahamoud Ali Youssouf

  Health: Ali Yacoub Mahamoud

  Higher education & research: Nabil Ahmed Mohamed

  Housing, urbanism & environment: Hassan Omar Bourhan

  Interior: Hassan Darar Houffaneh

  Justice: Ali Farah Assoweh

  Labour: Ali Hassan Bahdon

  Muslim affairs: Sultan Hamoud Abdi

  Women & family planning: Hasni Barkat Daoud

  November 01, 2012

Economy:

• Background

  Djibouti: Economic background

  Real gross domestic product by sector
  (% share of GDP)
  	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007
  Agriculture	3.6	3.6	3.7	3.7	3.7
  Industry	16.2	16.6	17.2	17.6	17.8
  Services	80.2	79.8	79.1	78.7	78.5
  Source: Economist Intelligence Unit.

  Download text file (csv format)

  May 29, 2008

• Structure

  Djibouti: Economic structure

  Economic structure: Annual indicators

  	2008a	2009a	2010a	2011b	2012b
  GDP at market prices (Dfr bn)	177.4b	188.7b	201.0b	217.7	238.3
  GDP (US$ bn)	1.0b	1.1b	1.1b	1.2	1.3
  Real GDP growth (%)	5.8	5.0	3.5b	4.4	4.8
  Consumer price inflation (av; %)	12.0	1.7	4.0	4.4a	5.0
  Population (m)	0.9	0.9	0.9	0.9	0.9
  Exports of goods fob (US$ m)	68.8	77.4	85.1	96.8	101.1
  Imports of goods fob (US$ m)	574.1	450.7	363.8	413.8	465.5
  Current-account balance (US$ m)	-225.4	-71.1	50.5	33.0	3.5
  Foreign-exchange reserves excl gold (US$ m)	173.7	219.6	230.6	228.3a	250.0
  Exchange rate (av) Dfr:US$	177.7	177.7	177.7	177.7a	177.7
  a Actual. b Economist Intelligence Unit estimates.

  Download the numbers in Excel

  Origins of gross domestic product 2007a	% of total	Components of gross domestic product 2007a	% of total
  Agriculture	3.9	Private consumption	57.5
  Industry	16.9	Government consumption	25.1
  Services	79.3	Gross domestic investment	37.5
  		Exports of goods & services	57.1
  		Imports of goods & services	77.2
  Exports 2002	% of total	Imports 2002	% of total
  Re-exports	81.5	Food & beverages	31.2
  Locally produced goods	18.5	Petroleum products	14.5
  		Khat	10.4
  Main destinations of exports 2011b	% of total	Main origins of imports 2011b	% of total
  Somalia	77.2	Saudi Arabia	18.1
  Egypt	8.6	China	16.5
  UAE	4.0	India	14.0
  Yemen	4.0	Indonesia	6.1
  a World Bank. b IMF, Direction of Trade Statistics.

  Download the numbers in Excel

  Download text file (csv format)

  November 01, 2012

• Outlook

  Djibouti: Country outlook

  Djibouti: Country outlook

  FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT

  OVERVIEW: Djibouti's president, Ismaël Omar Guelleh, and his governing coalition movement, Union pour la majorité présidentielle (UMP), will remain firmly in power over the 2013-14 forecast period. Power will remain heavily concentrated with the president and his family. The government's authoritarian approach will persist, marked by its domination of the media and its harsh repression of its critics. Djibouti's relative political stability and its proximity to Somalia, Yemen and the pirate-infested waters of the Gulf of Aden mean that it will remain a vital base for anti-piracy and counter-terrorism operations in the region. After narrowing to 1.2% of GDP in 2012, the fiscal deficit is expected to fall to 0.9% of GDP in 2013 and 0.5% of GDP in 2014 as the government improves fiscal discipline to retain its access to IMF support. Real GDP growth is expected to pick up from an estimated 4.8% in 2012 to an average 5.5% in 2013-14, driven by a recovery in transit traffic through Djibouti's ports and expansion works on the Doraleh container terminal (DCT). The current account is expected to fall into a deficit of 2% of GDP by the end of 2013-14, from an estimated surplus of 0.3% of GDP in 2012, mainly owing to a rise in imports of capital goods.

  DOMESTIC POLITICS: Mr Guelleh and the UMP will remain firmly in power in 2013-14. Within the UMP, power will remain heavily concentrated in Mr Guelleh's party, the Rassemblement populaire pour le progrès (RPP), and particularly in the hands of the president and his family. Mr Guelleh was re-elected for a controversial third term in April 2011 in a deeply flawed contest that was boycotted by the opposition. This followed the removal of the two-term limit on the presidency in April 2010 by the National Assembly, which is dominated by the RPP. The president will continue to use the RPP's control of the Assembly-secured on the back of a "block vote" electoral system that makes it very difficult for the opposition to win parliamentary seats-to implement his policy agenda. The government's authoritarian approach will persist, marked by its domination of the media and its harsh repression of its critics, as illustrated by the arrest of a journalist in August 2012. There was no major unrest in early 2012, around the first anniversary of violently repressed protests in February 2011, during which demonstrators had called for Mr Guelleh to step down. However, public discontent is expected to persist in 2013-14, underpinned by widespread poverty and unemployment (estimated at around 60%), as well as pervasive patronage and corruption. Discontent has persisted within the RPP's main partner, the official branch of the Front pour la restauration de l'unité et de la démocratie (FRUD), amid concern that the Issa ethnic group is being favoured by the regime. The FRUD's participation in the UMP has introduced Afar representation into the Issa-dominated RPP government and has helped to reduce ethnic conflict. However, some hardline Afar elements remain opposed to the government. Nevertheless, the preference of the FRUD's leaders for working within the ruling coalition, as opposed to risking total marginalisation outside it, is likely to remain, and will help to sustain political stability, despite underlying discontent.

  INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS: Djibouti will remain largely on good terms with its most important neighbour, Ethiopia, underpinned by the countries' mutual commercial interests. Landlocked Ethiopia accounts for more than 80% of traffic through Djibouti's congested ports, which are the mainstay of its economy, and Ethiopia conversely relies on Djibouti for a large share of its transit traffic. Relations with Eritrea have improved since mid-2010, when Eritrea withdrew its troops from Djiboutian territory in response to pressure from the UN. Underlying tensions will persist owing to Eritrea's support for armed opposition groups in Djibouti and other countries in the region, but Djibouti's determination to resolve the long-standing border issue peacefully means that tensions are unlikely to degenerate into armed conflict. Djibouti's relative political stability and its proximity to Somalia, Yemen and the pirate-infested waters of the Gulf of Aden will mean that it remains a vital base for anti-piracy and counter-terrorism operations in the region. The country is expected to continue to host France's largest military base in Africa, the only US military base on the continent, Japan's only overseas military base and the EU's anti-piracy forces. Djibouti's geopolitical significance has meant that its two main Western allies-the US and France-have largely ignored the regime's repression of its critics. The US is considering building a second base and Djibouti is examining an extension of its anti-piracy capability with support from the EU. Relations with France are expected to remain stable in 2013-14, underpinned by the renewal in January 2010 of a long-standing defence pact under which France is committed to safeguarding the territorial integrity of its former colony; the socialist victory in the French presidential election of April 2012 is unlikely to threaten a new agreement over the payments that France makes to retain its strong military presence in Djibouti. Economic ties with the Gulf States, particularly Dubai, will continue to grow stronger, although they may become strained if problems resurface at Djibouti's ports, which are managed by Dubai Ports World (DPW), a subsidiary of Dubai World, a company owned by the emirate's government.

  POLICY TRENDS: Following the expiration of a 45-month Extended Credit Facility (ECF) with the Fund in mid-2012, the Economist Intelligence Unit expects Djibouti to take on a new ECF in early 2013, which will underpin economic policies during 2013-14. Whether or not the ECF materialises, the policy agenda will be market-orientated in principle, but in practice the patronage networks that underpin the political system will strongly influence the workings of the economy. Transparency in the public finances will remain weak, although the government will aim to clear old arrears and avoid accumulating new ones. The supply of electricity will improve, as the government has begun to import relatively cheap hydropower from Ethiopia, but some power-rationing is likely to persist. The government has secured funding for the construction of a geothermal power plant, to reduce further its dependence on expensive diesel-generated power, but this is unlikely to be completed over 2013-14. The government's oversight of the financial sector has improved, with assistance from the Fund, but some risks to the sector's stability remain. Weaknesses in the business environment are expected to persist. Djibouti is ranked 171st out of 185 countries on the World Bank's 2013 Doing Business index because of its onerous regulations, limited supply of skilled labour and inefficient judicial system, all of which are expected to persist in 2013-14. Despite this, the country will continue to receive foreign direct investment (FDI), partly because of its location and the generous incentives offered in the Djibouti Free Zone. The country's reliance on foreign workers is expected to persist as a result of the low domestic skills base, limiting the impact of FDI inflows on employment and the transfer of skills. After expanding to an estimated 2.1% of GDP in 2011, owing to election-related expenditure and efforts to tackle the rise in food insecurity resulting from drought, the fiscal deficit has been brought back to an estimated 1.2% of GDP in 2012, as against a target of a surplus of 0.5% of GDP. Insufficient progress on the reduction of subsidies and other current expenditure prevented the government from reaching this. The fiscal balance will remain in deficit-albeit a narrowing one-in 2013-14 as the government tries to maintain fiscal discipline in order to retain its access to support from the Fund. Overall, the fiscal deficit will narrow to 0.9% of GDP in 2013 and 0.5% of GDP in 2014. Despite this, the net present value of public debt as a share of GDP will remain well above the 30% threshold that the Fund deems sustainable, given Djibouti's economic fundamentals. The deficit will be financed through both domestic and external borrowing.

  ECONOMIC GROWTH: Djibouti's ports form the bedrock of its economy, and economic growth in 2013-14 will depend heavily on their performance. According to official data, which are subject to large revisions, traffic through the ports slumped in 2010-for reasons that are unclear-but recovered strongly in the first half of 2011. We expect this recovery to have persisted in 2012, when Djibouti benefited from continued instability in Yemen (the port of Aden is its main competitor in the region) and strong economic activity in Ethiopia, which channels most of its external trade through Djibouti's ports. In 2013-14 economic activity will be buoyed by efforts by DPW, to improve efficiency, by a recovery in world trade and by large investments in infrastructure. The government has said that it will go ahead with the US$330m second-stage expansion of the DCT to double its capacity by 2015, although the project could be delayed if the growth in port traffic is slower than expected, especially as the terminal is operating at well below full capacity. Investment in the terminal could also be deferred if the fragile global economy were to slip back into recession, constraining global trade volumes and appetite for investment. Assuming that the second-stage expansion of Doraleh and the construction of the proposed port at Tadjoura do begin by late 2012, real GDP growth is forecast to pick up from an estimated 4.8% in 2012 to an average 5.5% in 2013-14.

  EXTERNAL ACCOUNT: The current account is expected to return to deficit during 2013-14 as the onset of investment in the DCT and the port at Tadjoura boosts imports of capital goods, offsetting the impact of the expected moderation in commodity prices. Exports will grow in line with the volume of port traffic: re-exports account for the vast majority of goods exports. Services exports are expected to grow robustly as an improvement in global economic conditions supports trade volumes. Balances on the income and current transfers accounts are expected to remain largely unchanged as a proportion of GDP. Overall, the current-account balance is forecast to move from a surplus of 0.3% of GDP in 2012 to a deficit of 1.1% of GDP and 2% of GDP respectively in 2013 and 2014. The deficit will be comfortably financed by FDI, as well as by external borrowing.

  November 02, 2012

View detailed map

Country Briefing

Land area

23,200 sq km

Population

884,166 (2012 World Gazetteer estimate)

Main towns

Population, 2012 ('000; World Gazetteer estimates):

 Djibouti (capital): 514

 Ali Sabieh: 24

 Dikhil: 21

 Tadjoura: 13

 Arta: 12

Climate

Hot and dry

Weather

Hottest months, June-August, 31-41°C; coldest month, January, 23-29°C; driest month, June, 1 mm average rainfall; wettest month, March, 25 mm average rainfall

Languages

French and Arabic are official languages; Somali and Afar are widely spoken

Measures

Metric system

Currency

Djibouti franc (Dfr) = 100 centimes; since 1973 the Djibouti franc has been pegged to the US dollar at Dfr177.7:US$1

Time

3 hours ahead of GMT

Public holidays

New Year's Day (January 1st); Labour Day (May 1st); Independence Day (June 27th); Christmas Day (December 25th); all Islamic holidays are observed in accordance with the lunar calendar; this may mean that the following dates are approximate: Mouloud (February 4th); Ascension of the Prophet (June 17th); Eid al-Fitr (end of Ramadan, August 19th); Eid al-Adha (Feast of the Sacrifice, November 6th); Islamic New Year (October 26th)

August 16, 2012