Cameroon

Politics:

• Analysis

  Cameroon politics: Quick View - Protesters dispersed as Paul Biya marks 30

  Event

  The security forces have used tear gas against opposition supporters protesting against Paul Biya's 30 years in power.

  Analysis

  On November 6th Cameroon's president, Paul Biya, joined the ranks of African heads of state who have ruled for at least three decades. Like other members of this group, including Equatorial Guinea's Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo, Angola's Jose Eduardo dos Santos and Zimbabwe's Robert Mugabe, Mr Biya shows little sign of wanting to relinquish his grip on power. He was re-elected for another seven-year term as president in October 2011, securing 78% of the vote in an election marred by reports of widespread irregularities, and given the scrapping of term limits in 2008, Mr Biya could in theory stand again in 2018, when he will be 85.

  The suppression of the November 6th protest march against Mr Biya's "life presidency" underscores the lack of opportunity for democratic expression. Opposition groups including the Social Democrat Front (SDF), which organised the march, have largely been marginalised-the SDF now holds only 16 parliamentary seats out of 180, compared with 43 in 1997-while Mr Biya continues to place heavy reliance on the security services to suppress discontent. Although this approach has served the president well thus far, tensions could increase. The government raised expectations of economic and social development in the run-up to the 2011 presidential poll; if it fails to deliver, the level of popular frustration will continue to mount. In this environment, and given the lack of opportunity for democratic change, a popular uprising cannot be ruled out.

  However, given Mr Biya's pivotal position within Cameroon's political scene-owing both to his dominance of the environment over a protracted period, and the fact that he has no clear successor-the balance of probabilities is that he will remain in power until the next presidential poll, health permitting. This could be the defining factor, since Mr Biya is reportedly in fragile health. Should he become incapacitated, the likelihood of political turbulence will increase substantially, given the jockeying for position that will take within the ruling Rassemblement democratique du peuple camerounais (RDPC), and the possibility of factionalism within the armed forces.

  November 07, 2012

• Background

  Cameroon: Key figures

  Paul Biya

  Despite his aloof and uncharismatic public image, Mr Biya, who came to power in 1982, has proved to be one of Sub-Saharan Africa's most enduring leaders. After a shaky start he consolidated his grip on power by building a large patronage network based on ethnic and personal loyalties. Although he is credited with Cameroon's relative political and economic stability, which has brought him strong French support, his critics accuse him of showing little interest in the day-to-day running of government, preferring extended stays overseas. He was re-elected in October 2004 for another seven-year term, which ends in 2011. His determination in seeing through the constitutional amendment eliminating presidential term limits makes it likely that he will prolong his rule.

  John Fru Ndi

  One of Cameroon's most radical political figures, Mr Fru Ndi leads the main opposition party, the Social Democratic Front (SDF), which spearheaded the campaign for political reform in the early 1990s. He was narrowly defeated in the 1992 presidential election, which many believe he actually won. In recent years his dominant leadership style has come under attack, and he has had difficulty holding together competing factions in the party. His credibility suffered badly when he withdrew from the opposition coalition in the 2004 presidential election after failing to win the nomination. Although Mr Fru Ndi can still draw on strong grassroots support within the SDF, his influence in national politics is in steady decline. On trial in late 2008 for the murder of a rival faction member in May 2006, Mr Fru Ndi's political career would be over if convicted and imprisoned.

  Adamou Ndam Njoya

  A former minister for education under Cameroon's first president, Ahmadou Ahidjo (1960-82), when he earned a reputation for honesty and integrity, Mr Ndam Njoya leads the Union democratique du Cameroun (UDC), the third-largest party in the National Assembly (the lower house of parliament). The UDC has won every election in his native Noun department in West province, home of the Bamoum people. Mr Ndam Njoya has won respect for consistently rejecting offers to join the government, but he has been unable to extend his party's influence beyond Noun, relegating him to the role of a regional player.

  Rene Emmanuel Sadi

  Mr Sadi, a member of a minority ethnic group, the Yokos, was appointed in April 2007 as the new secretary-general of the ruling Rassemblement democratique du peuple camerounais (RDPC). A diplomat by training, he has been a close adviser to Mr Biya for several years and still occupies the influential post of deputy secretary-general at the presidency. Mr Sadi has used his position to increase his influence in the party. As a result, his name is increasingly cited as a possible successor to the president, Mr Biya.

  Ephraim Inoni

  An anglophone from South-West province, Mr Inoni served for ten years as assistant secretary-general at the presidency before being appointed prime minister in 2004. Although his appointment continued a tradition of anglophone prime ministers, Mr Inoni was expected to wield greater influence than his predecessors, given his close relationship with Mr Biya and his long experience of government. Allegations of his involvement in a scandal over the purchase of a presidential aircraft appear to have weakened his position.

  November 07, 2008

• Structure

  Cameroon: Political structure

  Official name

  République du Cameroun

  Form of state

  Unitary republic

  Legal system

  Based on English common law and the Napoleonic Code

  National legislature

  National Assembly with 180 members; elected by universal suffrage; members sit three times a year, in March, June and November, and serve a term of five years

  National elections

  July 2007 (legislative) and October 2011 (presidential); next elections due February 2013 (legislative) and October 2018 (presidential)

  Head of state

  President; elected by universal suffrage

  National government

  Consists of the prime minister and Council of Ministers; includes the Rassemblement démocratique du peuple camerounais (RDPC) and the Union nationale pour la démocratie et le progrès (UNDP); the cabinet was last reshuffled in December 2011

  Main political parties

  RDPC, 153 seats in the National Assembly; Social Democratic Front (SDF), 16 seats; Union démocratique du Cameroun (UDC), six seats; UNDP, four seats; and Mouvement progressiste (MP), one seat

  President: Paul Biya

  Prime minister: Philemon Yang

  Vice-prime minister & relations with assemblies: Amadou Ali

  Ministers of state

  Justice: Laurent Esso

  Secretary-general at the presidency: Ferdinand Ngo Ngo

  Territorial administration & decentralisation: René Sadi

  Tourism & leisure: Bello Bouba Maigari

  Key ministers

  Agriculture & rural development: Lazare Essimi Menye

  Commerce: Luc Magloire Mbarga Atangana

  Communication: Issa Tchiroma Bakary

  Defence: Edgar Alain Mebe Ngo'o

  Economy, planning & regional development: Emmanuel Nganou Djoumessi

  Employment & vocational training: Zacharie Perevette

  Energy & water: Basile Atangana Kouna

  Environment: Pierre Hele

  External relations: Pierre Moukoko Mbonjo

  Finance: Alamine Ousmane Mey

  Health: André Mama Fouda

  Higher education: Jacques Fame Ndongo

  Industry, mining & technology: Emmanuel Bonde

  Labour & social security: Gregoire Owona

  Livestock & fisheries: Dr Taiga

  Post & telecommunications: Biyiti Bi Essam

  Public service & administrative reforms: Angouen Michel Ange

  Public works: Ambassala Patrice

  Transport: Robert Nkili

  Governor of Banque des Etats de l'Afrique centrale

  Lucas Abaga Nchama

  November 07, 2012

• Outlook

  Cameroon: Key developments

  Outlook for 2013-17

  • The Economist Intelligence Unit's core forecast is that the president, Paul Biya, who won the October 2011 presidential election by a sizeable margin, will- health permitting-remain the dominant political force.
  • The forthcoming legislative election, due initially in July 2012 but postponed by six months at least, will result in an easy win for Mr Biya's party, Rassemblement démocratique du peuple camerounais (RDPC).
  • Calls from civil society, the opposition, the diaspora and the international community to clarify the rules of presidential succession will intensify during the forecast period, in part reflecting concerns about Mr Biya's health.
  • The fiscal deficit will fall to 2.3% of GDP in 2013, from 2.8% of GDP in 2012, before edging back up to 2.6% of GDP in 2017, as revenue gains from high oil output and prices will be offset by the rising costs of the fuel subsidy.
  • Economic growth is expected to accelerate from 4.5% in 2012 to 4.7% a year in 2013-14 and 5% a year in 2015-17, driven by high oil production and prices, large investment projects and improved agricultural productivity.
  • The current-account deficit will widen in 2012-14 and reach 5.9% of GDP in 2014, before retreating to 3.8% of GDP in 2017 as a result of a steady increase in both oil export volumes and international oil prices.

  Review

  • Cameroon's national electoral commission, Elecam, has launched a biometric voter registration process in an effort to limit fraud in the next legislative election, which is unlikely to be held before mid-2013.
  • After a four-month wrangle which followed clashes between Cameroonian traders and Equatoguinean security forces, Cameroon and Equatorial Guinea have signed eight co-operation agreements in a bid to ease tensions.
  • Sundance Resources, an Australian mining firm, has accepted a US$1.4bn takeover bid from Hanlong Group, a Chinese company that covets Sundance's Mbalam iron ore project in Cameroon and Congo (Brazzaville).
  • Oil output dropped by 3% quarter on quarter to 5.59m barrels in the second quarter of 2012, as new projects are slow to come into production.
  • Medium-term projects for Cameroon's oil sector have been bolstered by a new offshore discovery announced by Addax Petroleum, a Chinese company, and by the approval of a new oil refinery in Kribi, to be built by 2015.
  • The 2011/12 cocoa harvest (August-July) has fallen by 10% from last year's record output to an estimated 212,000 tonnes, owing to drought and crop infection.

  November 07, 2012

Economy:

• Background

  Cameroon: Economic background

  According to the French central bank, Banque de France, the primary sector accounted for 21.2% of Uganda's economy in 2007. The secondary sector accounted for 32.4%, with oil extraction alone accounting for 10.5% of GDP. The services sector accounted for 46.4% of GDP in 2007. It is estimated that over 35% of the country's GDP is generated in the informal sector. On the expenditure side, private consumption accounted for 72% of GDP in 2007, with investment representing 17%.

  Nominal gross domestic product by expenditure
  (% share of GDP)
  	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007
  Private consumption	71.4	71.1	72.2	72.1	71.9
  Government consumption	12.0	11.7	11.8	11.9	12.2
  Gross fixed investment	17.1	16.5	16.5	16.5	17.2
  Stockbuilding	-0.6	0.7	–	–	–
  Exports of goods & services	25.7	25.4	25.7	26.0	25.3
  Imports of goods & services	25.6	25.4	26.2	26.5	26.6
  Source: Central Statistical Office.

  Download text file (csv format)

  November 07, 2008

• Structure

  Cameroon: Economic structure

  Data and charts: Annual trends charts

  
  

  

  November 07, 2012

• Outlook

  Cameroon: Country outlook

  Cameroon: Country outlook

  FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT

  POLITICAL STABILITY: After more than 29 years at the helm, Paul Biya was re-elected for another seven-year term as president in October 2011, in an election marred by reports of widespread irregularities. The Economist Intelligence Unit expects him to stay in office throughout the forecast period, health permitting, and to remain the pivot around which the state apparatus in Cameroon turns during that time. However, political and social stability is fragile, owing to the lack of a clear successor to the 79-year-old president and the consequent jockeying for position within the ruling Rassemblement démocratique du peuple camerounais (RDPC). Popular discontent and factionalism within the armed forces also pose serious threats to political stability.

  ELECTION WATCH: Legislative and municipal elections, initially due in July 2012, have been postponed and have not yet been rescheduled. Members of parliament have voted a six-month (renewable) extension of their term, and a presidential decree has prolonged the mandate of local representatives by a year. Polls will not take place before the national electoral commission, Elections Cameroon (Elecam), completes a full overhaul of voter lists using biometric verification, which it hopes to achieve by end-February 2013. We consider this target to be unrealistic, given the logistical complexity of the process--7m-8m voters must be registered in five months--and do not expect the polls to be held until mid-2013 at least. The new voter lists should help to reduce the risk of some voting irregularities, but the RDPC is nevertheless expected to add to its overwhelming parliamentary majority, as the president has marginalised the opposition parties and continues to restrict freedom of expression and association. The largest opposition party, the Social Democratic Front, which relies on its regional and anglophone support base, now holds only 16 parliamentary seats out of 180, compared with 43 in 1997. Although the parallel municipal elections allow more space for smaller parties, the ruling party is still likely to reinforce its grip on rural areas. The next presidential election is scheduled for well beyond the end of the forecast period, in 2018, by which time Mr Biya will be 85.

  INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS: Although France will remain Cameroon's main foreign backer, French support for regime change in Côte d'Ivoire and North African states has not been well received by Mr Biya's administration, and Cameroon will seek closer ties with other countries that are interested in its natural resources, which include oil, timber, metals, diamonds and arable land. Links with China will continue to strengthen, helped by that country's non-interventionist approach; China also promised recently to increase its military support for the Cameroonian navy. The US is helping Cameroon's military to improve maritime security in the Gulf of Guinea, and the US ambassador has indicated that his country, already the biggest foreign investor in Cameroon through its stakes in the Chad-Cameroon pipeline and an electricity company, AES-Sonel, is interested in investing more in the African country--perhaps as a challenge to China's growing influence. The UK is keen to boost its commercial links with Cameroon, while Turkey, India and South Korea are also increasing their presence. Although Cameroon enjoys broadly peaceful relations with its partners in the regional economic and monetary union, Communauté économique et monétaire de l'Afrique centrale (CEMAC), disagreements over governance and the pace and form of integration will prevent the country from fully taking on its role as a motor of regional co-operation. In addition, tensions over the status of migrant workers in Equatorial Guinea and Gabon will remain a strain on relations with these two neighbours.

  POLICY TRENDS: Economic policy over the forecast period--and well beyond--will be guided by the long-term development policy published in January 2010 as Document de stratégie pour la croissance et l'emploi (DSCE). The key objectives of the DSCE are to reduce poverty and to boost growth and employment. To achieve these goals, the government plans to increase infrastructure investment, improve private-sector access to finance and enhance health and education through higher spending. It also intends to improve the business environment, strengthen external competitiveness and deepen regional trade links. However, excessive subsidisation and ministries' limited absorptive capacity, which is partly attributable to inefficient public financial management systems, will cause actual investment expenditure to fall short of budgeted outlays. Financial sector development will be undermined by ongoing weaknesses in the banking sector and poor regulatory oversight. Moreover, despite recent initiatives to improve the business environment--including the establishment of a business forum in conjunction with the private sector--business conditions will remain among the most difficult in the world, owing to bureaucratic bottlenecks, corruption, poor infrastructure, lack of access to credit and an inefficient legal system. Poor management at the port of Douala, heavy administrative and customs procedures as well as inadequate taxation will continue to undermine regional integration and external competitiveness.

  ECONOMIC GROWTH: We estimate that Cameroon's real economic growth will reach 4.5% in 2012, driven by a recovery in the oil sector and a rise in agricultural production. Our economic forecast has been revised upwards to reflect the expected recovery of the oil sector following successful exploration efforts. Real GDP growth is now expected to accelerate to an average of 4.7% per year in 2013-14 on the back of ongoing progress in agricultural productivity, major public investment projects and the coming on stream of new oil fields. The coming into production of offshore oil wells owned, among others, by Edinburgh-based Bowleven, and a wider recovery in the global economy will support a real economic growth rate of 5% per year on average in 2015-17. Overall, the oil output will rise from an estimated 66,000 barrels/day (b/d) in 2012 to just over 96,000 b/d in 2017. The oil sector's contribution to GDP could be even higher if a planned refinery in Kribi kicks off production before the end of the forecast period, a possibility which we do not rule out. A number of projects are also under way in the mining sector. However, bureaucratic delays, as well as a possible drying-up of funds in the wake of ongoing economic difficulties in Europe, may mean that some of the mines that were originally expected to come on stream over the next few years may not commence production until later in the forecast period.

  INFLATION: Owing to Cameroon's dependence on imported food, consumer price inflation is affected by movements in global prices, although the government's policy of heavily regulating prices and subsidising food imports moderates the impact. We expect inflationary pressures from that particular source to have stabilised in 2012 as global food prices fell by 2.8% year on year, allowing for Cameroon's annual average inflation rate to moderate to 2.9%. Going forward, a forecast weakening of the CFA franc against the US dollar will have the effect of pushing up the cost of imported goods, including the capital equipment required to support the expansion of mining and infrastructure. As a result, inflation will edge up to 3.1% in 2013, before gradual monetary tightening by the BEAC, in line with the ECB, will help inflation to stabilise at 3%, CEMAC's convergence rate, in 2014-15. Inflation will ease to 2.9% in 2016-17 as the CFA franc regains strength against the US dollar.

  EXCHANGE RATES: The CFA franc is pegged to the euro at CFAfr655.96:EUR1 and therefore fluctuates in line with euro:dollar movements. The sovereign debt problems in the euro zone have caused the euro to depreciate, as investors have taken refuge in perceived safe-haven assets, including the US dollar. From an estimated average of CFAfr511:US$1 in 2012, we expect the franc to continue to weaken over the following three years, to an average of CFAfr530.1:US$1 in 2015, before recovering slightly to an average of CFAfr520.6:US$1 in 2016 and CFAfr521.6:US$1 in 2017.

  EXTERNAL SECTOR: Exports will be boosted by rising oil production and historically high global oil prices throughout the forecast period. Despite rising agricultural production, imports will increase as the public investment programme is ramped up and foreign investment in the natural resources sector triggers strong demand for imports of capital goods. After widening from 2.4% of GDP in 2012 to 2.9% of GDP in 2014, the trade deficit will shrink back to 1.3% of GDP in 2017, largely reflecting developments in the oil sector. The services deficit is expected to moderate from 2.4% of GDP in 2012 to 1.8% of GDP in 2017. The income deficit will average 1.6% of GDP, driven by rising profit and dividend remittances by foreign oil companies. Inflows of donor funds and a small increase in diaspora remittances will help to maintain the surplus on the current transfers account at an average of 0.8% of GDP in 2013-17. Predominantly driven by trends in the trade balance, the current-account deficit is forecast to widen from an estimated 5.6% in 2012 to 5.9% in 2014, before improved oil export receipts are expected to bring it back to 3.8% of GDP in 2017. The current-account deficit will be financed through foreign direct investment in the country's growing oil and mining projects, as well as borrowing from official creditors and commercial banks.

  November 01, 2012

• Forecast

  Cameroon: 5-year forecast summary

  Outlook for 2013-17: Forecast summary

  Forecast summary
  (% unless otherwise indicated)
  	2012a	2013b	2014b	2015b	2016b	2017b
  Real GDP growth	4.5	4.7	4.7	5.0	5.0	5.0
  Oil production ('000 b/d)	65.9	79.3	81.7	89.8	93.4	96.2
  Gross agricultural production growth	5.5	6.5	5.5	6.0	6.0	6.0
  Consumer price inflation (av)	2.9	3.1	3.0	3.0	2.9	2.9
  Lending rate (av)	14.0	14.0	14.5	15.3	15.8	16.3
  Government balance (% of GDP)	-2.8	-2.3	-2.4	-2.4	-2.5	-2.6
  Exports of goods fob (US$ m)	5,977	6,424	6,877	7,555	8,018	8,504
  Imports of goods fob (US$ m)	6,597	7,157	7,730	8,155	8,563	8,991
  Current-account balance (US$ m)	-1,445	-1,579	-1,731	-1,504	-1,476	-1,440
  Current-account balance (% of GDP)	-5.6	-5.7	-5.9	-4.8	-4.2	-3.8
  External debt (year-end; US$ bn)	3.4	3.7	4.1	4.6	5.1	5.7
  Exchange rate CFAfr:US$ (av)	511.0	519.6	523.7	530.1	520.6	521.6
  Exchange rate CFAfr:US$ (end-period)	508.5	522.7	531.1	522.7	521.1	522.4
  Exchange rate CFAfr:€ (av)	656.0	656.0	656.0	656.0	656.0	656.0
  a Economist Intelligence Unit estimates. b Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts.

  Download the numbers in Excel

  Download text file (csv format)

  November 07, 2012

View detailed map

Country Briefing

Land area

475,442 sq km

Population

20.3m (World Gazetteer estimate for 2012)

Main towns

Population in '000 (2012; World Gazetteer estimates)

Douala: 2,446

Bamenda: 349

Bafoussam: 302

Garoua: 296

Maroua: 239

Ngaoundéré: 196

Kumba: 173

Climate

There is a large variation from north to south; the north has seven or eight months of dry season, whereas the equatorial south has a similar period of rain

Weather in Yaoundé (altitude 770 metres)

Hottest months, January-March, 19-29°C; coolest month, August, 18-27°C; driest month, January, 23 mm average rainfall; wettest month, October, 295 mm average rainfall

Language

French and English are the official languages; around 200 local languages are also spoken

Measures

Metric system

Currency

CFA franc

Fiscal year

January 1st-December 31st (before 2003, July 1st-June 30th)

Time

1 hour ahead of GMT

Public holidays

Fixed: January 1st (New Year's Day); February 11th (Youth Day); May 1st (Labour Day); May 20th (National Day); August 15th (Assumption); December 25th (Christmas Day); Movable: Eid al-Fitr; Eid al-Adha; Good Friday; Ascension

All Islamic holidays are observed in accordance with the lunar calendar; including: Mawlid al-Nabi (the birthday of the Prophet, February 4th 2012); Eid al-Fitr (end of Ramadan, August 19th); Eid al-Adha (Feast of the Sacrifice, October 26th); Islamic New Year (November 15th)

March 20, 2012