Event
Former President Michelle Bachelet of the centre-left opposition Concertación has announced that she will stand for election as president on November 17th.
Analysis
The announcement, which came soon after she quit her job in New York as head of the UN Women agency and returned to Chile, was long expected and will now trigger campaigning in earnest between the two main coalition forces, the ruling centre-right Coalición and the Concertación. After her term ended in March 2010, Ms Bachelet left the country to take up a position at the UN and stayed out of party politics.
The strategy paid off well in terms of her popularity. Although this dipped in the first half of her term owing to student protests and the bungled implementation of a mass transit system in the capital, her popularity rebounded after Chile weathered the global financial crisis, with the government making special welfare payments to the poor to bolster incomes. Although her slow response to the February 2010 earthquake and the failure of the navy's alert system to warn of the ensuing tsunami affected her legacy, her popularity has remained high.
In her absence, the Concertación has become more fractured and unpopular, and she will face the challenge of moderating the voices from the more radical leftist members of the alliance. She is likely to win the June 30th primary with ease, but many in the Concertación would prefer to see her run unopposed, so as to give a sense of greater unity. Andrés Velasco, her former finance minister, has been campaigning for several months already, financed by the Concertación's wealthy business backers. They have been supporting Mr Velasco, a more centrist figure, in order to curb the rising influence of the more radical leftist members of the alliance.
In a poll published in January by local polling agency CEP, 49% said they wanted Ms Bachelet to be the next president, well ahead of her leading rivals of the rival Coalición, Laurence Golborne (11%) and Andrés Allamand (5%). Mr Golborne (an independent who is supported by the Unión Demócrata Independiente, UDI), and former defence minister, Mr Allamand (who has the backing of his Renovación Nacional, RN party) resigned on November 5th to compete for the presidential nomination of the Coalición. Although these gaps are likely to come down as the Coalición candidate emerges after the June 30th primaries and as the campaigns heat up, this appears to be Ms Bachelet's election to lose.
March 28, 2013
Sebastián Piñera
Having been defeated by Michelle Bachelet in a presidential run-off election in January 2006, Mr Piñera re-emerged to win the presidency in 2010 in a second-round run-off against Eduardo Frei, of the Concertación de Partidos por la Democracia (Concertación). Mr Piñera has banked on his reputation as a hard-working, self-made and hugely successful entrepreneur, bringing a business-like style to the executive. Nevertheless, he has failed to achieve his predecessor's popularity, and has had to endure numerous energy and education protests. Mr Piñera will continue to face a bitter and often obstructionist opposition from the Concertación, and keeping his Coalición por el Cambio (Coalición) centre-right coalition aligned behind his government will also be difficult at times as his own Renovación Nacional (RN) party is resorting increasingly to populist posturing, as is the Unión Demócrata Independiente (UDI). Relations between the two major coalition partners are not without conflicts but, ultimately, they will be governed by the desire to win another term in power.
Michelle Bachelet
A member of the Partido Socialista (PS) and a former minister of health (2000-01) and defence (2004-05), Ms Bachelet was Chile's first female president (2006-10) and left office with exceptionally high approval rates. Currently head of UN Women in New York, with a contract ending in December 2012, she continues to be liked by Chileans. According to a CEP poll carried out in April, a remarkable 83% have a positive image of her and only 6% have a negative image. She is by far the favourite at this stage of the race for the next presidency. However, Ms Bachelet will be handicapped by her unpopular and deeply divided Concertación coalition. After being begged by the Concertación in the past 12 months to be their candidate and take them back to power in 2014, she has begun to send signals that she will, but is yet to say so clearly. She will probably condition her candidacy on programmatic and behavioural commitments by all parties in her coalition enabling governability.
Laurence Golborne
A centre-right independent with no political experience before his appointment as minister of mining in 2009, Mr Golborne's political career was boosted after overseeing the rescue of 33 trapped miners in October 2010, which turned him into the country's most popular politician and a potential presidential successor to Mr Piñera. He later became the energy minister and was then moved to the Ministry of Public Works in July 2011 to give him more visibility. He is intellectually bright and a talented administrator, which helped him establish a successful career in business, becoming chief executive officer (CEO) of one of the leading retail chains in Latin America. Like Ms Bachelet, he has the common touch. He has a 74% approval rate as a minister and a 22% disapproval rate according to a recent Adimark poll, while 68% say he has a good image and 11% a bad image, according to a CEP poll. He has made it plain that he intends to compete for the presidential nomination at the Coalición's primary election (which will probably be held in May 2013).
Andrés Allamand
Appointed minister of defence in July 2011 by Mr Piñera to position him as a possible presidential candidate, he had served previously as a senator since the return to democracy in 1990 and headed his RN party for a long while. He gained widespread respect on both sides of the political divide thanks to his bridging role and his ability to maintain a respectful, cross-party dialogue. He will be RN's presidential candidate at the Coalición's primary. His performance as a minister is well-rated but he is not as popular as Mr Golborne.
Pablo Longueira
Appointed minister of the economy in July 2011, he is trying hard to be nominated by the UDI as its presidential candidate for the Coalición's primary. As one of the UDI's original founders, he is highly popular within his party, but both his performance as a minister and his popularity with voters is weaker than that of Mr Golborne or Mr Allamand. As a result the UDI is divided between the loyalists that support Mr Longueira and the pragmatists who support Mr Golborne's candidacy.
August 23, 2012
Official name
Republic of Chile
Form of government
Presidential system, based on 1980 constitution
The executive
The president, elected for a period of four years, is head of state and appoints the cabinet
National legislature
Bicameral legislature (Congress): a Senate (the upper house) comprising 38 members elected for eight years and partly renewed every four years; and a Chamber of Deputies (the lower house), with 120 members who are all elected every four years
Legal system
The 21 Supreme Court judges are appointed by the president from lists submitted by the Supreme Court, and confirmed by a two-thirds majority in the upper house; 16 regional courts of appeal and members of the lower courts are appointed by the Supreme Court
National elections
November 2013 (presidential and congressional); October 2016 (municipal)
National government
Sebastián Piñera of the Renovación Nacional (RN) heads the Coalición por el Cambio coalition; he took office as president on March 11th 2010
Main political organisations
Government: Coalición por el Cambio, comprising the Renovación Nacional (RN) and the Unión Demócrata Independiente (UDI); Chile Primero (CH1). Opposition: Concertación de Partidos por la Democracia (Concertación) coalition, comprising the Partido Demócrata Cristiano (PDC), the Partido Radical Social Demócrata (PRSD), the Partido Socialista (PS) and the Partido por la Democracia (PPD); Partido Comunista (PC); Partido Regionalista Independiente (PRI)
President: Sebastián Piñera (RN)
Key ministers
Agriculture: Luis Mayol (independent)
Culture: Luciano Cruz-Coke (independent)
Defence: Rodrigo Hinzpeter (RN)
Economy: Pablo Longueira (UDI)
Education: Harald Beyer (independent)
Energy: Jorge Bunster (independent)
Environment: María Ignacia Benítez (UDI)
Finance: Felipe Larraín (independent)
Foreign affairs: Alfredo Moreno (independent)
General secretary of the government: Cecilia Pérez (RN)
General secretary of the presidency: Christián Larroulet (independent)
Health: Jaime Mañalich (independent)
Housing & urbanism: Rodrigo Pérez (independent)
Interior & cabinet chief: Andrés Chadwick (UDI)
Justice: Teodoro Ribera (RN)
Labour: Evelyn Matthei (UDI)
Mining: Hernán de Solminihac (independent)
National property: Rodrigo Pérez (independent)
National service for women: Carolina Schmidt (independent)
Planning & co-operation: Joaquín Lavín (UDI)
Public works: Loreto Silva (independent)
Transport & telecommunications: Pedro Pablo Errázuriz (independent)
Central Bank president
Rodrigo Vergara
March 11, 2013
Outlook for 2013-17
Review
March 11, 2013
Fact sheet
| Annual data | 2011 | Historical averages (%) | 2007-11 |
| Population (m) | 17.2 | Population growth | 1.0 |
| GDP (US$ bn; market exchange rate) | 248.6 | Real GDP growth | 3.9 |
| GDP (US$ bn; purchasing power parity) | 299.3 | Real domestic demand growth | 6.6 |
| GDP per head (US$; market exchange rate) | 14,412 | Inflation | 3.8 |
| GDP per head (US$; purchasing power parity) | 17,355 | Current-account balance (% of GDP) | 0.9 |
| Exchange rate (av) Ps:US$ | 483.7 | FDI inflows (% of GDP) | 7.4 |
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Background: In a 1988 referendum, mandated under the 1980 constitution, the then military ruler, Augusto Pinochet, failed to obtain the majority that would have enabled him to remain in office for a further eight years. Democratic presidential and congressional elections were held in December 1989, when the candidate of the centre-left coalition, Concertación de Partidos por la Democracia (Concertación), Patricio Aylwin, was elected president for four years. Concertación candidates won four subsequent presidential elections, but intra-coalition splits and a gradual realignment of political forces after 20 years of Concertación rule, helped to produce a victory for Sebastián Piñera, of the centre-right Coalición por el Cambio (Coalición), in the second round of the presidential election held in January 2010.
Political structure: The political system is presidential, with a bicameral legislature that comprises a 38-seat Senate (the upper house) and a 120-seat Chamber of Deputies (the lower house). The constitutional presidential term is four years and successive re-election is not allowed. The judiciary is nominally independent, but in practice the executive exerts influence through the nomination of temporary judges and the control of promotions to the Supreme Court. Monetary policy is in the hands of an autonomous central bank. Chile has 15 regions, 54 provinces and 346 municipalities.
Policy issues: There is strong consensus on the desire to deepen global economic integration while maintaining a liberal market economy and prudent fiscal and monetary policies. Policy differences between the two major coalitions tend to be a matter of degree rather than substance. The most heated differences centre on the labour regime and the electoral system. Reform is under way to improve the transparency and efficiency of the civil service. The public healthcare and education systems have received substantial additional resources since 1990, with good improvements in healthcare but only modest improvements in education, which remains a weakness.
Taxation: Corporate income tax is paid in two stages. Declared profit is subject to an 18.5% first-category income tax (FCIT). When profit is distributed to shareholders or partners, companies pay 35%, minus the FCIT credit. Tax on dividends and interest payments to non-banks is levied at 35%. Royalties and fees transferred abroad are subject to a withholding tax of 20%. The value-added tax (VAT) rate is 19%.
Foreign trade: Chile's general import tariff rate is 6%, but its trade-weighted effective average tariff rate is below 2%, owing to tariff preferences granted through trade accords-most importantly, free-trade agreements with the EU, the US, Canada, Mexico, South Korea, China and Japan. In 2012 exports reached US$78.9bn and imports US$74.4bn.
| Major exports 2011 | % of total | Major imports 2011 | % of total |
| Copper | 53.4 | Intermediate goods | 52.9 |
| Fresh fruit | 5.1 | Consumer goods | 21.5 |
| Cellulose | 4.5 | Capital goods | 16.0 |
| Salmon & trout | 3.5 | ||
| Leading markets 2011 | % of total | Leading suppliers 2011 | % of total |
| China | 21.9 | US | 18.7 |
| Japan | 11.0 | China | 16.0 |
| US | 10.8 | Argentina | 8.0 |
| Brazil | 5.4 | Brazil | 5.9 |
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March 13, 2013
Data and charts: Annual trends charts
March 11, 2013
Chile: Country outlook
FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT
POLITICAL STABILITY: The popularity of the president, Sebastián Piñera, has picked up slightly from the record lows to which it sank in April 2012, boosted by housing reconstruction and transfers for the poor. However, he will still face simmering social tensions and political opposition in Congress ahead of the November 2013 presidential and congressional elections. Tensions with students have eased after the government addressed some of the causes behind student protests in 2011 over the education system, notably by cutting the cost of student loans from 6% to 2%; introducing better regulation of poorly performing educational establishments; and spending more on education, using revenue from a recent tax reform. But elsewhere a recent escalation in attacks and violence by Mapuche extremists in southern Chile has shifted the community's grievances to the forefront of politics. The government is trying to improve the rights and status of the indigenous community while isolating its extremist minority, although a resolution of the conflict and of the Mapuche question remains far off. More broadly, there is a sense that the executive and legislature are struggling to address the rising expectations of the expanding middle class, fuelling dissatisfaction with traditional political parties and sustaining the risk of sporadic protests. There are no concrete signs of changes to the centralised political system, which favours the current two-coalition framework of the ruling centre-right party, the Coalición por el Cambio (Coalición), and the opposition centre-left party, the Concertación de Partidos por la Democracia (Concertación). Despite some efforts to put in place electoral and political reforms at regional and local level, the Economist Intelligence Unit does not expect major changes to the political system during Mr Piñera's term (which ends in March 2014).
ELECTION WATCH: At the nationwide municipal elections in October 2012 the centre-left opposition, formed by the Concertación coalition and the PC, achieved significant gains at the expense of the Coalición. The results put the Concertación in a strong position ahead of the presidential and congressional elections of November 2013 and have led to a broader Concertación-PC alliance. Although this alliance should secure most of the PC's estimated 6% of voters, it risks alienating more centrist Concentración voters. Campaigning ahead of the Coalición primary in June has begun, pitting Laurence Golborne (an independent, backed by the more conservative Unión Demócrata Independiente--UDI) against Andrés Allamand (of Mr Piñera's centre-right Renovación Nacional--RN). Mr Golborne is the most popular politician on the right and is the favourite to win the primary, but would face an uphill struggle against Ms Bachelet to win the presidency in November. Ms Bachelet (who was president in 2006-10) remains the most popular political figure in Chile. She has yet to make her position public, but is likely to announce her intention to run in March. If she delays announcing her candidacy, she risks losing ground to her Coalición rivals (she faces few challenges from within the Concertación), who have been campaigning across the country since November. A reform to make electoral registration automatic could increase the number of voters, particularly among the young, increasing uncertainty about the outcome.
INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS: Mr Piñera will seek to maintain solid trade relations and avoid diplomatic disputes with other Latin American countries, especially those with which underlying tensions persist, such as Argentina (because of natural gas supply issues) and Bolivia (owing to a long-standing territorial dispute). Trade and investment links with Peru will remain strong, despite an unresolved dispute over a maritime border--a final verdict on this from the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in The Hague is expected shortly. Beyond the region, Mr Piñera will continue to broaden and deepen links to support export-led economic development, in particular by fostering closer integration among Pacific economies. This was evident last June, when Mr Piñera signed a "strategic association" agreement with China to support increased trade and investment. Chile is also expected to expand its large network of free-trade agreements (FTAs) with new agreements with Malaysia, Vietnam and India. Given the existing consensus across the political divide, a Concertación government would provide continuity in these efforts.
POLICY TRENDS: Chile will continue to stand out as the economy in Latin America with the soundest macroeconomic fundamentals, reflecting decades of good economic management. The Banco Central de Chile (BCCh, the Central Bank) will continue to preserve the country's hard-earned reputation for price stability, while seeking to curb peso volatility and shielding the economy from external shocks. In the remainder of Mr Piñera's term, the president will push Congress to approve a new bankruptcy law to complete his pro-competitiveness agenda, and will try to boost his legacy by inaugurating public works, including those related to post-earthquake housing reconstruction. Assuming that Ms Bachelet is elected and takes office in March 2014 (our baseline scenario), her government will face some internal pressures from the more radical elements in the Concertación and from its Communist party allies to steer a more leftist policy course, but we assume that she will use her political authority to pursue broadly pragmatic policies, while increasing social spending. A Coalición victory would provide closer policy continuity, bolstering business confidence.
ECONOMIC GROWTH: Chile's robust economic fundamentals and political and institutional stability will be supportive of growth in 2013-17. Although the economy is expected to cool from estimated GDP growth of 5.5% in 2012, continuing strong consumption and investment will result in GDP growth of 4.8% in 2013. Backed by expanding copper production, growth will average 4.8% annually in 2014-17. Overall, domestic demand will drive growth throughout the forecast period, deriving from a surge in both public and private investment, but also from robust levels of private consumption from an increasingly affluent consumer base, which benefits from rising real wages and ready access to credit. The strength of domestic demand will sustain import-volume growth, which will outpace growth in export volumes. As a result, the contribution of net trade to GDP growth will be strongly negative in 2013-17.
INFLATION: Sound policies will limit inflationary pressures--the monetary policy rate is currently close to its neutral rate, at 5%--and we forecast inflation within the 2-4% official target range. Nonetheless, wage pressures from tight labour markets are reflected in higher non-tradeables inflation, at 3.6% in January, well above the headline 1.6% inflation rate, suggesting that inflation will pick up in 2013. Other domestic risks could emerge from the national grid's vulnerability to weather shocks (predominantly droughts), which could result in energy price rises, while volatility in global fuel and food prices could again put upward pressure on prices, as occurred in 2007-08.
EXCHANGE RATES: Notwithstanding a period of volatility in mid-2012 caused by euro zone debt jitters, the Chilean peso strengthened slightly in 2012 and was trading at Ps471:US$1 on February 15th 2013, owing to strong foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows, sustained economic growth and the liquidity unleashed by the third round of quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve (the US central bank). We expect the peso to remain close to this value, assuming that global economic conditions are relatively stable. However, an external shock, such as a break-up of the euro zone, would cause the peso to weaken considerably. In the longer term, our forecasts envisage only a slightly weaker peso in nominal terms, with the exchange rate at Ps496:US$1 at end-2017. However, with the prospect of weak growth in the US and Europe, this modest nominal weakening will not be sufficient to offset the peso's gradual strengthening in real terms: by 2017 we expect the currency to have appreciated by as much as 15% compared with the average for the last ten years.
EXTERNAL SECTOR: After widening to an estimated 3.5% of GDP in 2012, Chile's current-account deficit will narrow during the forecast period (to 2.4% of GDP by 2017) as higher copper exports come on stream. Chile will maintain a moderate trade surplus in 2013-17, owing partly to benefits from its extensive FTA network and strong links to other high-growth markets, such as China. The latter is the main source of demand for Chile's copper exports, earnings from which are set to remain high by historical standards owing to above-average prices and expanding output. More than half of Chile's exports go to Asia and Latin America, thereby providing sources of growing external demand. Infrastructure and mining projects will continue to fuel growth in imports of intermediate and capital goods in the medium term, while rising household consumption, boosted by booming domestic demand, will drive imports of consumer goods. Chile will continue to run a large structural deficit on the income account, reflecting the large-scale repatriation of profits by multinationals. These will remain the key contributors to Chile's current-account deficit, but will increasingly be offset by returns on an expanding base of outward investments, as well as by the return on foreign reserves invested in the two sovereign wealth funds. The services and transfers balances will remain the smallest components of the current account, producing a deficit of 1.2% of GDP and a surplus of 1% of GDP respectively by 2017.
March 01, 2013
Country forecast overview: Highlights
Country forecast overview: Key indicators
| Key indicators | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 |
| Real GDP growth (%) | 5.5 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.9 |
| Consumer price inflation (av; %) | 3.0 | 2.3 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 3.0 |
| Central government balance (% of GDP) | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.5 | -0.1 | -0.3 | -0.2 |
| Current-account balance (% of GDP) | -3.5 | -3.3 | -2.6 | -2.4 | -2.5 | -2.4 |
| Short-term lending rate (av; %) | 10.1 | 9.0 | 8.6 | 8.1 | 7.6 | 7.6 |
| Exchange rate Ps:US$ (av) | 486.5 | 480.2 | 487.6 | 494.1 | 496.9 | 498.4 |
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March 13, 2013
Land area
756,946 sq km
Population
16.61m (2012 census)
Main regions
Population in '000 (2012 census)
Santiago metropolitan area: 6,684
Biobío: 1,965
Valparaíso: 1,724
Maule: 963
La Araucanía: 907
O'Higgins: 872
Climate
Temperate; dry in the north, wet in the south
Weather in Santiago (altitude 520 metres)
Hottest month, January, 12-29°C; coldest month, June, 3-14°C (average daily minimum and maximum); driest month, February, 2 mm average rainfall; wettest month, June, 84 mm average rainfall
Language
Spanish
Measures
Metric system
Currency
1 peso (Ps) = 100 centísimos. Average exchange rates in 2011: Ps483.7:US$1; Ps673.1:EUR1
Time
4 hours behind GMT
Public holidays
January 1st; Good Friday; Easter Saturday; May 1st (Labour Day); May 21st (Battle of Iquique); June 2nd (Corpus Christi); August 15th (The Assumption); September 18th (Independence Day); October 15th (Día del Descubrimiento de Dos Mundos); November 1st (All Saints' Day); December 8th (Immaculate Conception); December 25th (Christmas Day)
January 08, 2013