Côte d'Ivoire

Politics:

• Analysis

  Côte d'Ivoire politics: What makes a true Ivorian?

  A ceremony in the capital, Yamoussoukro, on March 5th to issue citizenship to 8,133 people of Burkinabé descent has drawn attention to the controversial question of nationality, which has frequently been wielded as a political weapon in Côte d'Ivoire over the past two decades. Those who subscribe to the controversial concept of ivoirité claim that Ivorian citizenship should be restricted and protected from the influx of foreign immigrants. Some 141,000 people have been granted citizenship of Côte d'Ivoire since the current president, Alassane Ouattara-who was twice barred from running in presidential elections because he was regarded as a foreigner-came to power in April 2011. These mass naturalisations will normalise the lives of thousands of stateless people who have been living with uncertainty for decades. They may also increase the number of potential voters for Mr Ouattara at the next presidential election in 2016.

  The concept of ivoirité, what makes a true Ivorian, is a relatively recent phenomenon in Côte d'Ivoire. The francophile Félix Houphouët-Boigny took over as president following independence in 1960, and he dominated the country's political life, presiding over Côte d'Ivoire's emergence as one of Africa's more stable and economically successful countries in the 1960s and 1970s. There was little internal strife and no significant external threat, while exports of cocoa, coffee, timber and tropical fruits enabled the country to achieve an enviable level of prosperity. Called in by the government to contribute to the country's development, immigrants arrived from Burkina Faso, Guinea, Mali and other neighbouring states, mostly to work as seasonal workers on cocoa and coffee plantations. Many settled in Abidjan and in the fertile farming regions in the centre of the country.

  Nationality as a political tool

  When economic conditions worsened, the concept of ivoirité came to the forefront of political life. During the 1980s commodity prices fell and Côte d'Ivoire began to face serious economic and social problems. Henri Konan Bédié became president following Mr Houphouët-Boigny's death in 1993, and as his support waned, the National Assembly passed broad constitutional changes. The electoral code was amended in 1998, requiring that a presidential candidate have one Ivorian parent and be able to demonstrate ten years of continuous residence. The eligibility criteria were subsequently tightened further, requiring presidential candidates to prove that they had never held any other nationality and that both of their parents were Ivorian citizens. Mr Ouattara, who allegedly held posts in international organisations as a Burkinabé citizen, could not prove that both his parents were of Ivorian descent. In 2001, the then president, Laurent Gbagbo, went so far as to admit that the two clauses had been specifically designed to exclude Mr Ouattara.

  Politicians exploit divisions

  Mr Ouattara's case polarised the country and was symptomatic of its deepening identity crisis. People were increasingly defined by what part of the country they came from and what documents they held. Fuelled by politicians, the concept of ivoirité encouraged predominantly Christian southerners to regard themselves as "true Ivorians", and stirred up xenophobia against Muslim northerners, whether or not they were of Ivorian nationality. It has been estimated that up to one-third of the total population consists of first- and second-generation immigrants, chiefly of Burkinabè, Malian, Guinean and Ghanaian origin. Labour was imported from surrounding countries as far back as the colonial period, and the numbers had swelled during the boom years of the 1970s.

  The division of the country into rebel north and loyalist south at the turn of this century confirmed that the concept of ivoirité had the potency to overwhelm and reframe other issues. Mr Gbagbo eventually agreed to use exceptional powers in 2005 to allow all parties to present the candidate of their choice-including Mr Ouattara, who went on to beat him in the long-delayed presidential election that was held at end-2010. However, the issue has persisted at the national level. The legal status of the immigrant workers that Mr Houphouët-Boigny had welcomed during the boom years had never been resolved. Many still do not have official papers, and farm land that they do not officially have rights to.

  Naturalisations have political implications

  Gbagbo loyalists have claimed that Mr Ouattara has allowed the recent mass naturalisations simply as a means of boosting his support in the next presidential election, as most of those newly granted citizenship are likely to favour Mr Ouattara. This interpretation fails to account for the fact that the process started under the Gbagbo regime (but has admittedly been speeded up since Mr Ouattara came to power). Moreover, the 8,133 people recognised in the ceremony in Yamoussoukro are descendants of a population that has been in what is now Ivorian territory since 1933 but that has had difficulty obtaining documents attesting to their nationality. Of the 141,000 people who have established their nationality in the past two years, many are family members of people who have lived in Côte d'Ivoire since before independence, and have spent their entire lives in the country, according to the UNHCR (the UN Refugee Agency).

  Although Mr Ouattara has established a relative peace in his two years at the helm, and the fragmented nature of the opposition suggests that this could hold in the medium term, the long-term threat to stability in Côte d'Ivoire stems from uncertainty over identity and land rights. The mass naturalisations are a small step on the long road towards resolving this. Nevertheless, the UNHCR estimates that 871,000 people are still expecting to acquire their Ivorian citizenship or have it confirmed. The underlying problem of ivoirité has yet to be fully resolved and has the potential to resurface.

  March 28, 2013

• Background

  Côte d'Ivoire: Constitution and institutions

  The constitution is changed

  Cote d'Ivoire's first constitutional regime, which was adopted at independence in 1960, was still in place when the December 1999 coup took place. However, many amendments had been made to the 1960 constitution. The country adopted a multiparty system in 1990 in response to growing domestic and international pressure. Mr Bedie also changed the constitution twice, in a bid to reinforce his power base. It was his amendment of the electoral code in 1995 that started the debate over the concept of ivoirite. The new constitution was approved by referendum, with 87% of the vote in July 2000, but it remained deeply controversial because of the last-minute revision of the eligibility rules (Article 35). The 2001 forum of national reconciliation recommended that the constitution be reviewed and clarified. This process has been overtaken by events, first by the Marcoussis/Accra agenda, which requires significant changes to the constitution, and second by the continuation of the political and military conflict, which has cast that agenda into uncertainty. Since October 2005 the country has been in an ambiguous constitutional situation whereby neither the successive extensions of Mr Gbagbo's term nor the temporary delegation of executive powers to the prime minister are provided for in the constitution; nonetheless the constitution has not been suspended.

  A powerful presidency

  The present constitution is still based on a strong presidential regime. The president is elected by universal suffrage for a five-year term of office, which is renewable once. The president appoints a prime minister to co-ordinate the government. Members of the unicameral parliament, the 225-seat National Assembly, are also elected by universal suffrage every five years. Under UN Resolution 1721 and its predecessors, the prime ministers have been appointed by the international community, which has granted them a substantial share of executive power. However, under the terms of the Ouagadougou agreement, Mr Gbagbo was handed back uncontested executive authority, which was confirmed by Mr Soro's acceptance of being appointed by presidential decree. A Constitutional Council handles matters of constitutional interpretation. The constitution also provides for an economic and social council and guarantees the independence of the judiciary. In practice, the courts have remained strongly influenced by the executive. Prior to the civil war, a series of major judicial reforms were announced—including installing a Council of State, a Supreme Court of Appeal and an Audit Office—but these have yet to be implemented.

  Public administration is plagued by problems

  Red tape pervades public administration, making it slow and inefficient. Financial malpractice plagued previous administrations, encouraged by the absence of auditing. Mr Gbagbo's administration has been implicated in a number of new scandals, including the award of public funds to support ventures by obscure or unknown local and foreign companies, along with opaque privatisation deals. There are widespread concerns that cocoa-sector revenue that should be being used for price stabilisation and sector development is being diverted into off-budget expenditure, notably military spending. The severe economic downturn since the conflict erupted in 2002 seems to have led to higher levels of corruption at all levels of public administration. The government has for the most part managed to pay the civil service wage bill, but with frequent delays, and civil service unions in various fields, including the public health system, have staged periodic, though usually brief, protests and strikes.

  Following the outbreak of the military conflict in 2002, government offices in the north and west of the country shut down. The New Forces have established a makeshift administration that levies fees on transport and trade and maintains public safety. Many public services, such as schools and clinics, have not shut down altogether but are run with minimal staff and on an improvised basis. Delegations from the central ministries in Abidjan have visited many locations, but so far only a few civil servants have been deployed. One of the most important achievements of Mr Soro's government has been that of starting the redeployment of the public administration across the country, one of the key requirements under every successive plan to bring Cote d'Ivoire out of its current crisis. In early June 2007 the government passed two decrees to redeploy administrative and judicial services at the highest administrative level, including regional prefects, who oversee regions made up of several departments. With new regional prefects in place in most parts of the country, the deployment of other administrative personnel has also begun, although many government offices have yet to reopen pending the completion of the delayed disarmament process.

  January 15, 2008

• Structure

  Côte d'Ivoire: Political structure

  Official name

  République de Côte d'Ivoire

  Form of state

  Unitary republic

  Legal system

  Based on the July 2000 constitution and the Napoleonic Code

  National legislature

  National Assembly; 255 members elected by universal suffrage for a five-year term

  National elections

  The presidential election took place on October 31st 2010, followed by a second-round run-off on November 28th; the result was disputed by the incumbent, Laurent Gbagbo, but the winner, Alassane Ouattara, was eventually inaugurated on May 21st 2011; the next presidential election is due in late 2015; legislative elections were held on December 11th 2011; the next legislative election is due in 2016

  Head of state

  The president, elected by universal suffrage to a five-year term in November 2010

  National government

  A government of national unity was appointed by the president on June 1st 2011

  Main political parties

  The main parties are Parti démocratique de Côte d'Ivoire-Rassemblement démocratique africain (PDCI-RDA—known as the PDCI), Union pour la démocratie et la paix en Côte d'Ivoire (UDPCI), Rassemblement des républicains (RDR), Parti ivoirien des travailleurs (PIT) and Union démocratique et citoyenne (UDCY); the former ruling party, Front populaire ivoirien (FPI), is in disarray following the removal of its leader, Laurent Gbagbo, and is fracturing into new parties, notably Mamadou Koulibaly's Liberté et démocratie pour la République (Lider); there are also three main rebel movements, collectively referred to as the Forces nouvelles, which are likely to become political parties or to merge with other parties: Mouvement patriotique de Côte d'Ivoire (MPCI), Mouvement pour la justice et la paix (MJP) and Mouvement populaire ivoirien du Grand-Ouest (MPIGO)

  Key ministers

  President & defence minister: Alassane Ouattara

  Prime minister: Jeannot Ahoussou Kouadio

  President of the National Assembly: Guillaume Soro

  Agriculture: Mamadou Sangafowa Coulibaly

  Commerce: Dagobert Banzio

  Communication: Souleymane Coty Diakite

  Construction, sanitation & urban planning: Mamadou Sanogo

  Economic infrastructure: Patrick Achi

  Economy & finance: Charles Koffi Diby

  Foreign affairs : Daniel Kablan Duncan

  Health & HIV/AIDS control: Thérèse Aya N'Dri-Yoman

  Higher education & scientific research: Ibrahima Cissé

  Human rights & public liberties: Gnenema Coulibaly

  Industry: Moussa Dosso

  Interior: Hamed Bakayoko

  Mines, oil & energy: Adama Toungara

  National education: Kandia Kamissoko Camara

  Post, information & communications: Bruno Nabagné Koné

  Tourism: Charles Aké Atchimon

  Transport: Gaoussou Touré

  Urban affairs: Anne Désirée Ouloto

  Water & forestry: Clément Bouéka Nabo

  Governor of the regional central bank (BCEAO)

  Koné Tiémoko Meyliet

  November 09, 2012

• Outlook

  Côte d'Ivoire: Key developments

  Outlook for 2013-17

  • The president, Alassane Ouattara, will benefit from the parliamentary majority enjoyed by his party, the Rassemblement des républicains (RDR).
  • A top priority for Mr Ouattara will be to make progress with the demobilisation of former rebel fighters and with integrating these fighters and troops loyal to the former president, Laurent Gbagbo, into a new national army.
  • A recent surge in violence is threatening to undermine some of the political stability gains. A return to full-scale civil conflict is unlikely, but a deterioration in security could deter investors and impede the economic recovery.
  • The public finances will benefit from aid flows, the expansion of the domestic tax base and an ongoing economic rebound. The deficit is forecast to shrink as a percentage of GDP from an estimated 6.9% in 2012 to 4.1% in 2017.
  • The economy will be supported by rising government spending, a construction boom and higher cocoa production. Real GDP growth is forecast at 7% in 2013, and an average annual growth rate of 6.2% in 2014-17.
  • The economic rebound will lead to a large increase in imported goods, leading to a widening of the current-account deficit. The deficit as a percentage of GDP is forecast to increase from 3% in 2012 to 6.5% in 2017.

  Review

  • In early August several people died after an attack on the Akouédo military barracks, in which the assailants captured significant amounts of weapons.
  • Côte d'Ivoire closed its land and sea borders with Ghana after a spate of attacks that appear to have originated from inside that country.
  • Amnesty International has accused the authorities of detaining and torturing more than 200 people, mostly supporters of ex-president Gbagbo.
  • Côte d'Ivoire has one of the worst business environments in the world. It remained at 177th in an annual index produced by the World Bank, which ranks 185 economies worldwide on the ease of doing business.
  • The government is expected shortly to announce a plan to pay back three missed coupon payments on its US$2.3bn Eurobond by the end of 2014. Servicing of the bond was suspended during the political crisis in 2011.
  • The new cocoa season started on October 1st, with uncertainty hanging over the impact of reforms that will transform the pricing, marketing and export of Ivorian beans. We forecast an increase in the total crop to 1.4m tonnes.
  • The IMF has increased its real GDP growth forecast for 2012 from 8.1% to 8.7% following the second review of the US$616m extended credit facility. There was a stronger than expected economic performance in the first half of 2012.

  November 09, 2012

Economy:

• Background

  Côte d'Ivoire: Economic background

  Main economic indicators, 2007
  (Economist Intelligence Unit estimates unless otherwise indicated)
  Real GDP growth (%)	1.5
  Consumer price inflation (av; %)	2.0
  Current-account balance (US$ m)	1,144.7
  Exchange rate (av; CFAfr:US$)	479.19
  Population (m)	19.2
  External debt (year-end; US$ m)	10,870.0
  Source: Economist Intelligence Unit, CountryData.

  Download text file (csv format)

  January 15, 2008

• Structure

  Côte d'Ivoire: Economic structure

  Data and charts: Annual trends charts

  
  

  

  November 09, 2012

• Outlook

  Côte d'Ivoire: Country outlook

  Côte d'Ivoire: Country outlook

  FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT

  POLITICAL STABILITY: The legislative election held in December 2011 bolstered the president, Alassane Ouattara, and delivered a sizeable parliamentary majority to his party, the Rassemblement des républicains (RDR). The party's long-standing ally, the Parti démocratique de Côte d'Ivoire-Rassemblement démocratique africain (PDCI), also performed strongly in the polls, and a PDCI veteran, Jeannot Ahoussou Kouadio, was appointed prime minister. He formed a government dominated by both parties, which have renewed their alliance, the Rassemblement des Houphouëtistes pour la démocratie et la paix (RHDP). A former prime minister, Guillaume Soro, was appointed president of the National Assembly, a role that makes him Mr Ouattara's constitutional successor. However, political stability is far from assured as Mr Ouattara seeks to return Côte d'Ivoire to peace and prosperity after the disputed presidential election in late 2010, which unleashed a violent four-month period during which several thousand people were killed. The former ruling party, the Front populaire ivoirien (FPI), boycotted the legislative election and is struggling to redefine itself following the arrest of its leader, the former president, Laurent Gbagbo, and his handover to the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague.

  ELECTION WATCH: The country's first legislative election in more than a decade was held on December 11th 2011, with the vote in 12 constituencies being rerun on February 26th. In the final tally Mr Ouattara's RDR secured 138 seats and a clear majority in the 255-seat National Assembly. The party's ally, Henri Konan Bédié's PDCI, secured 86 seats, and their alliance will continue after the PDCI veteran, Mr Ahoussou, was appointed as the new prime minister. The FPI--deprived of its charismatic leader, Mr Gbagbo--will undergo further schisms as it seeks to redefine itself, and the party is unlikely to pose a political challenge in the foreseeable future. The recently created Liberté et démocratie pour la république (Lider) under the FPI's former interim president, Mamadou Koulibaly, will also undergo a period of soul-searching after failing to win a seat in the legislative election. The next presidential election is not due until late 2015, by which time any number of political developments could have radically altered the political landscape.

  INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS: Good relations with Ghana and Liberia will remain conditional on both countries supporting Ivorian efforts to limit attacks from Gbagbo loyalists based in the neighbouring countries. Given the dangers to them if Côte d'Ivoire were to descend into civil strife--instability can spread quickly in the region, given porous borders and the easy availability of weapons--we expect that they will continue to back the efforts of the Ouattara administration, but without offering much tangible support.

  POLICY TRENDS: The RDR's victory in the legislative election, which gave Mr Ouattara's government a clear majority in the National Assembly, should ensure the smooth passage of economic policy proposals. The IMF approved an extended credit facility worth US$616m in November 2011, covering the 2011-14 period. The programme aims to facilitate the transition from post-crisis recovery to sustainable economic growth. It will focus on increasing public investment, fostering the private sector, stimulating job creation and scaling up poverty-reduction programmes. Following a decade of underinvestment, improving the country's dismal infrastructure will be a key priority for the government. Its ability to finance this investment was made easier when it reached completion point under the heavily indebted poor countries (HIPC) initiative in June. Added to relief obtained from the multilateral debt relief initiative (MDRI) and the Paris Club of debtors in 2011-12, the country is now on a much more sustainable debt path. This will make it more attractive to investors and ensure access to international financial markets. With much infrastructure left decimated following the low-level conflict that rumbled on in the past decade, Côte d'Ivoire will look abroad to finance the sizeable infrastructure investments that are required. It may also tap public-private partnerships to finance the extensive investments needed, similar to the deal it secured with Socoprim, a French company which is part-owned by the African Development Bank and the Ivorian government, to build a US$300m, 1.5-km toll bridge in Abidjan in 2013.

  ECONOMIC GROWTH: Côte d'Ivoire's economy bounced back in 2012, as the restoration of security and the re-establishment of government operations provided a massive fillip, and we expect it to continue growing at a rapid pace, provided political stability is maintained. Economic growth will be supported by rising government spending and increased investor confidence throughout the forecast period. Cocoa and oil revenue, together with a major aid and debt-relief effort, will help to fund spending on reconstruction, which will spur expansion. The global outlook for 2013 is relatively weak, but improved domestic factors will more than offset ongoing weak external demand, and we forecast real GDP growth of 7%. Economic growth will remain high in 2014-17, as investors are encouraged by a more prolonged period of political stability. This growth will be supported by a construction boom--the Ivorian government is seeking billions of dollars of foreign investment to upgrade and expand the country's infrastructure--as well as higher cocoa production as the long-delayed reforms to that sector are finally put in place. We forecast an average annual growth rate of 6.2% in 2014-17. This is heavily dependent on the political outlook, as the economy will expand rapidly only if there is a period of sustained stability. A second risk on the downside is that poor weather conditions lead to a weaker than expected cocoa harvest. Such an event is likely in one of the five years of the forecast period, and it would cause us to revise down our economic growth forecast for that year.

  INFLATION: Price pressures are generally kept low by the currency's peg to the euro, which limits imported inflation. Average annual inflation declined to an estimated 1.5% in 2012--the economy even slipped into deflation in the second quarter--as a functioning government, the reopening of markets and more secure conditions for transport improved supply following the political crisis in 2011. Global oil prices will ease in 2013, on the back of weak global demand, and are unlikely to increase by much in 2014, before rising steadily again in 2015-17. This will ensure that any increases in transport costs are kept to a minimum. Global food prices are expected to fall each year up to 2015 and rise only gently thereafter. Overall, we forecast that inflation will remain low and fluctuate within a narrow band of 2% and 2.6% throughout 2013-17. There is some danger of the economy overheating in 2015-16, as import growth continues unabated owing to strong domestic demand and as global commodity prices start to rise again. We therefore forecast a pick-up in average annual inflation to a peak of 2.6% in 2016.

  EXCHANGE RATES: The CFA franc is pegged to the euro at CFAfr655.96:EUR1 and will fluctuate against the US dollar in line with the euro:dollar exchange rate. The fiscal and sovereign debt problems in the euro zone have caused the euro to depreciate, as investors have taken refuge in perceived safe-haven assets, including the US dollar. Weakness in the euro zone will persist, and the euro-pegged CFA franc is forecast to depreciate from an average of CFAfr511:US$1 in 2012 to CFAfr530:US$1 in 2015 before recovering some ground, back to CFAfr522:US$1 in 2017. However, a euro zone break-up would lead to much greater volatility.

  EXTERNAL SECTOR: The economic rebound has led to a large increase in imported goods, narrowing the trade surplus and keeping the current account in deficit. Lower global commodity prices will reduce the cost of imports, but strong economic growth will lead to a large increase in the volume of imports. The weather this season is expected to be favourable to cocoa yields, and as a result cocoa production is expected to pick up slightly in 2013. Weak global demand will keep down the price of exports, particularly coffee, and export earnings will increase only modestly. The services deficit will widen in 2013, owing to an increase in transport costs in line with higher imports. The income account will remain in deficit throughout the forecast period, as multinational companies repatriate profits. The transfers account will be helped by the restoration of political stability, which will attract aid. Overall, the current-account deficit as a percentage of GDP is forecast to widen from 3% in 2012 to 4.7% in 2013. The deficit is forecast to widen further, to 6.5% in 2017, as economic growth and investor confidence create high demand for imported capital goods.

  November 01, 2012

• Forecast

  Côte d'Ivoire: 5-year forecast summary

  Outlook for 2013-17: Forecast summary

  Forecast summary
  (% unless otherwise indicated)
  	2012a	2013b	2014b	2015b	2016b	2017b
  Real GDP growth	8.5	7.0	6.0	6.4	6.2	6.3
  Consumer price inflation (av)	1.5	2.0	2.0	2.5	2.6	2.4
  Discount rate (end-period)	4.1	4.1	4.5	5.0	5.5	6.0
  Government balance (% of GDP)	-6.9	-5.9	-5.8	-4.4	-3.8	-4.1
  Exports of goods fob (US$ m)	11,508	11,688	11,911	12,385	13,018	13,522
  Imports of goods fob (US$ m)	-8,555	-9,379	-9,701	-10,111	-10,823	-11,405
  Current-account balance (US$ m)	-761	-1,280	-1,858	-1,929	-2,161	-2,448
  Current-account balance (% of GDP)	-3.0	-4.7	-6.4	-6.2	-6.2	-6.5
  External debt (year-end; US$ bn)	4.8	5.5	6.1	7.0	7.8	8.8
  Exchange rate CFAfr:US$ (av)	511.0	519.6	523.7	530.1	520.6	521.6
  Exchange rate CFAfr:US$ (end-period)	508.5	522.7	531.1	522.7	521.1	522.4
  Exchange rate CFAfr:¥100 (av)	643.4	629.0	603.9	595.6	564.8	570.5
  Exchange rate CFAfr:€ (end-period)	656.0	656.0	656.0	656.0	656.0	656.0
  a Economist Intelligence Unit estimates. b Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts.

  Download the numbers in Excel

  Download text file (csv format)

  November 09, 2012

View detailed map

Country Briefing

Land area

322,463 sq km

Population

22.6m (2012; Economist Intelligence Unit estimate)

Main towns

Population in '000 (The World Gazetteer, 2012 projections)

Abidjan: 4,351

Bouaké: 695

Daloa: 262

Yamoussoukro (capital) 259

Korhogo 226

Climate

Tropical

Weather in Abidjan (altitude 20 metres)

Hottest months, February-April, 24-32°C (average daily minimum and maximum); coldest month, August, 22-28°C; driest month, January, 41 mm average rainfall; wettest month, June, 495 mm average rainfall

Languages

French, Dioula, Baoulé, Bété and other local languages

Measures

Metric system

Currency

CFA franc; fixed to the euro at a rate of CFAfr656:€1

Financial year

January-December

Time

GMT

Public holidays

Fixed: January 1st, Labour Day (May 1st), Independence Day (August 7th), Assumption (August 15th), All Saints' Day (November 1st), Peace Day (November 15th), Christmas (December 25th)

Variable (according to Christian and Muslim calendars): Prophet's birthday, Easter Monday, Ascension Day, Whit Monday, Eid Al Fitr, Tabaski

March 26, 2012