Central African Republic

Politics:

• Analysis

  Central African Republic politics: Quick View - Crisis looms as rebels seiz

  Event

  Chadian military forces have entered the Central African Republic (CAR) to help quell an uprising in which rebel troops have seized a number of towns and threatened to bring down the president, Francois Bozize.

  Analysis

  A coalition of insurgents calling itself Seleka (which means "alliance") and formed by dissident factions of three former rebel groups-the Convention patriotique du salut du Kodro, the Convention des patriotes pour la justice et la paix (CPJP) and the Union des forces democratiques pour le Rassemblement-seized the strategic diamond mining town of Bria on December 18th and the northern town of Kabo on December 19th. Seleka has reportedly demanded fresh talks with the government, claiming that the Bozize administration failed to uphold the terms of peace deals signed in 2007, 2008 and 2011. According to the agreements, former combatants were to be disarmed and given economic opportunities, but the process has repeatedly stalled because of funding constraints and a lack of political will. Although discontent among former combatants has led to sporadic violence in the past, rebel activity has rarely appeared so effective: Seleka is now reportedly threatening to push on and remove the government if its demands are not met.

  The scale of the uprising may not yet represent a threat to the existence of the Bozize government, but the current surge in violence suggests that an end to militancy in the north of the country is a distant prospect. If Mr Bozize's grip on power appears to be slipping, the risk of a coup to remove him could increase significantly.

  At this stage, negotiation remains an option, but it is difficult to see what meaningful commitments Mr Bozize could make to the rebels. High unemployment and years of economic mismanagement mean that there are few economic opportunities to offer to former militants. On the military front, regaining control of Bria will be an urgent priority for the government as a prolonged occupation by the rebels could negatively affect the mining industry, with a knock-on effect on economic growth, as well as providing Seleka with a source of funding. However, the national army is known to be poorly equipped and ill-disciplined, and the government struggles to project power beyond the capital region and the country's south. Chadian forces, which have apparently been sent for support, could help Mr Bozize reclaim control as they did in 2010, when CPJP fighters occupied the town of Birao. It nonetheless remains unclear for how long the Chadian president, Idriss Deby, will be willing to protect his southern neighbour.

  December 20, 2012

• Background

  Central African Republic: Political forces

  2005 legislative election results
  Parties	Seats
  Convergence nationale Kwa Na Kwa	42
  Mouvement pour la liberation du peuple centrafricain (MLPC)	11
  Rassemblement democratique centrafricain (RDC)	8
  Parti social democratique (PSD)	4
  Front patriotique pour le progres (FPP)	2
  Alliance pour la democratie et le progres (ADP)	2
  Association Londo	1
  Independents & others	35
  Total	105
  Source: www.electionworld.org.

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  September 20, 2008

• Structure

  CAR: Political structure

  Official name

  République centrafricaine

  Form of state

  Unitary republic

  Legal system

  Based on the 1995 constitution; major amendments to the constitution were passed in December 2004

  National legislature

  National Assembly, presided over by a former prime minister, Célestin Gaombalet

  National elections

  Presidential and legislative elections took place on January 23rd 2011; a second round of the legislative election followed on March 27th 2011; the next elections are scheduled for 2016; municipal elections, which were scheduled for 2009, have been postponed indefinitely

  Head of state

  President, François Bozizé, who took power in a military rebellion in March 2003 and won the presidential elections in 2005 and 2011

  National government

  The 105-member National Assembly and the cabinet are overseeing the day-to-day running of the country; a new government was formed in April 2011

  Main political parties

  The pro-Bozizé Kwa Na Kwa (KNK) has a majority in the National Assembly; Mouvement pour la libération du peuple centrafricain (MLPC) is split into two factions, one regrouping former supporters of the late Ange-Félix Patassé, president between 1993 and 2003, and another supporting his former prime minister, Martin Ziguélé; the MLPC has support from the Parti libéral démocrate (PLD) and other small parties; other parties include Rassemblement démocratique centrafricain (RDC), Alliance pour la démocratie et le progrès (ADP), Front patriotique pour le progrès (FPP), Mouvement pour la démocratie et le développement (MDD), and Forum démocratique pour la modernité (Fodem)

  President & defence minister: François Bozizé

  Prime minister: Faustin-Archange Touadéra

  Ministers of state

  Finance & budget: Albert Besse

  Higher education & scientific research: Jean Willybiro Sako

  Planning & the economy: Abdou Karim Meckassoua

  Transport development: Anicé Parfait Mbay

  Key ministers

  Agriculture & rural development: Fidèle Gouandjika

  Civil service, labour & social security: Noël Ramadan

  Environment & ecology: François Naouyema

  Foreign affairs: Antoine Gambi

  Government secretariat & relations with parliament: Michel Koyt

  Housing: Gontran Djono-Djidou-Ahabo

  Local government & decentralisation: Josué Binoua

  Primary & secondary education & literacy: Gisèle Annie Nam

  Public health, population & AIDS: Jean-Michel Mandaba

  Public security, migration & public order: Claude Richard Gouandja

  Public works: Jean Prosper Wodobode

  Rivers, forests, hunting & fishing: Emmanuel Bizot

  Technical & professional education & training: Djibrine Sall

  Trade & industry: Marilyn Mouliom Roosalem

  Governor of the regional central bank (BEAC)

  Lucas Abaga Nchama

  December 01, 2012

Economy:

• Background

  Central African Republic: Population

  Population
  (m unless otherwise indicated)
  	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007
  Population	4.06	4.12	4.19	4.26	4.34
  % change	1.5	1.5	1.7	1.7	1.9
  Source: IMF, International Financial Statistics.

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  • The country is sparsely populated. According to UN estimates, in 2007 the population of the Central African Republic (CAR) was 4.3m, with a growth rate of 1.9% per year. The population density is just 6.9 inhabitants per sq km, but given the relatively high urbanisation rate, estimated at 38% in 2007, the population is spread extremely thinly in rural areas. This has been exacerbated by the proliferation of armed groups, banditry and armed incursions from neighbouring countries, which have forced much of the rural population to flee over the border into Chad and Cameroon, or into the main cities. Given the massive displacement of the population, it will be years before accurate population data are available.
  • An ethnically diverse country. Like many African countries, the CAR is ethnically diverse. There are more than 70 ethnic groups, but the main distinction is between the savannah peoples of the north—such as the Sara, Mbum, Gbaya and Banda—and inhabitants of the lush southern river valleys—including the Yakoma and Oubanguiens. Several thousand Ba'Aka (pygmies) live in the south-western rainforest. Various African languages are spoken, but Sango is the most widely understood. French is the language of administration. About one-half of the population is Christian and around one-fifth is Muslim. Traditional beliefs also retain wide adherence.
  • Rivalry between northern and southern tribes is intense. As fishermen and traders, the southern tribes were the first to come into contact with the French colonisers and to gain access to money and influence. Better educated and holding positions requiring technical expertise, the southerners dominated government from independence until 1993, when Ange-Felix Patasse became the first northern president. Mr Patasse was not able to fill the civil service with his clansmen to the same degree as his predecessors, given the lack of educated northerners. The current president, Francois Bozize—for the same reason—has struggled to fill key posts with members of his northern Gbaya tribe.
  • Health indicators are poor. The 2007/08 human development index (HDI) of the UN Development Programme (UNDP) ranked the CAR 171st out of 177 countries, behind both Chad and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). According to the UN, average life expectancy was 39.3 years in 2007, compared with a regional average of 44.4. Mortality rates for the under-fives were estimated at 94 per 1,000 live births in 2007, while maternal mortality was 1,100 for every 100,000 live births. Public spending on health is low, reaching just 1.5% of GDP in 2004, according to the UNDP. As a result, the World Bank estimates that only 50% of the population has access to basic healthcare. Malaria is the main cause of death, followed by HIV/AIDS, polio and sleeping sickness. The rate of HIV infection was estimated at 10.7% in 2005, the tenth-highest in the world and almost double the average for Sub-Saharan Africa. The CAR's northern regions have been worst affected owing to their military occupation and isolation during the conflict. According to a UN Children's Fund (UNICEF) study, 15% of the adult female population in northern CAR has been raped, contributing to a surge in HIV/AIDS.

  September 20, 2008

• Structure

  CAR: Economic structure

  Economic structure: Annual indicators

  	2008a	2009a	2010a	2011b	2012b
  GDP at market prices (CFAfr bn)	888.0	935.0	983.0	1,022.0a	1,104.8
  GDP (US$ m)	1,983	1,980	1,985	2,166a	2,162
  Real GDP growth (%)	2.0	1.7	3.3	3.1a	3.8
  Consumer price inflation (av; %)	9.3	3.5	1.5	1.3	5.0
  Population (m)	4.24	4.32b	4.40b	4.49	4.58
  Exports of goods fob (US$ m)	150.3	123.9	139.1b	186.3	205.2
  Imports of goods fob (US$ m)	300.4	270.9	305.1b	319.8	332.6
  Current-account balance (US$ m)	-197.0	-181.9b	-204.1b	-191.4	-166.4
  Foreign-exchange reserves excl gold (US$ m)	121.8	210.6	181.2	154.5a	202.9
  Exchange rate (av) CFAfr:US$	447.8	472.2	495.3	471.9a	511.0
  a Actual. b Economist Intelligence Unit estimates.

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  Origins of gross domestic product 2009	% of total	Components of gross domestic product 2009	% of total
  Agriculture	54.0	Private consumption	93.8
  Industry	13.7	Government consumption	6.2
  Services	32.3	Gross domestic investment	9.6
  		Exports of goods & services	8.8
  		Imports of goods & services	-19.9
  Principal exports 2010a	US$ m	Principal imports 2010a	US$ m
  Timber	61.6	Petroleum products	82.0
  Diamonds	48.4	Public investment programme	36.5
  Cotton	5.7
  Main destinations of exports 2011b	% of total	Main origins of imports 2011b	% of total
  Belgium	29.1	South Korea	45.6
  China	16.4	Netherlands	8.8
  Morocco	7.6	France	7.1
  Democratic Republic of Congo	7.6	Cameroon	5.1
  France	6.8	Turkey	3.9
  a Banque des Etats de l'Afrique centrale official estimates. b Drawn from partners' trade returns, subject to a wide margin of error.

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  December 01, 2012

• Outlook

  Central African Republic: Country outlook

  Central African Republic: Country outlook

  FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT

  OVERVIEW: The political outlook for the Central African Republic (CAR) remains uncertain owing to frustrations over the re-election of the president, François Bozizé, in 2011 as well as over the government's lack of inclusiveness. Although the disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration process has resumed and donors have re-engaged with the CAR, sporadic violence and instability are expected, especially in remote areas. The fiscal balance is set to improve on the back of a new Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement with the IMF, which will guide fiscal consolidation efforts and catalyse donor support. Real GDP is projected to grow by 4.1% in 2013 and 4.5% in 2014. Rising export volumes and a recovery of transfers, on the back of renewed donor support, will allow for a moderate reduction of the current-account deficit to 7.4% of GDP in 2013 and 7.2% of GDP in 2014.

  DOMESTIC POLITICS: The political outlook for the CAR remains uncertain. Popular frustration over irregularities in the presidential and legislative elections held in early 2011, as well as the government's perceived lack of inclusiveness, is set to persist. Mr Bozizé has strived to bring power over critical finance and security issues back to the presidency. Opposition parties are divided and have no parliamentary representation. Any form of opposition to Mr Bozizé's authority, even within his party, has been systematically quelled, through frequent cabinet reshuffles, replacements of senior officials and judicial pursuits. At least three coup plots were foiled in 2012. Nonetheless, some modest improvements in political stability and security are likely in the 2013-14 forecast period. In the second half of 2012 the Convention des patriotes pour la justice et la paix (CPJP) became the last Central African rebel group to sign a peace agreement with the government, and Baba Laddé, a Chadian rebel leader active in northern CAR, surrendered and was sent back to Chad. Chadian troops in charge of Mr Bozizé's personal security also returned to Chad, and the CAR's disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration (DDR) programme was resumed, helped by renewed donor support. These developments could rekindle fragile reconciliation efforts, although there are still numerous potential obstacles. Sporadic skirmishes, especially along the country's porous borders, will remain a threat to security. The Lord's Resistance Army (LRA), a Ugandan rebel group, has reportedly been terrorising the local population in the south-east. In spite of renewed focus on the issue, poor co-ordination and limited resources mean that international efforts are unlikely to deal a decisive blow against the highly mobile and elusive rebel group. Frustrations with the slowness of the DDR process and with the peace agreements signed with the government are likely to lead to the formation of new dissident groups. Finally, Mr Bozizé's concentration of power and perceived authoritarian shift may alienate donors and prompt his opponents to attempt a coup. Reform of the security forces is a key priority for the government, with the focus on modernising the army and building a proper police force and a functioning legal system. However, the government must handle this highly sensitive process carefully. Frustrations among former rebel groups at not being sufficiently included in this reform are likely to grow. Should the reform process be mishandled or salary arrears rise, a fresh attempted coup remains a risk throughout 2013-14.

  INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS: France will remain the CAR's main development partner and will continue to maintain 320 troops in the capital, Bangui, under a defence agreement. The withdrawal of UN peacekeepers at the end of 2010 has weakened security in the north-east of the country, driving government efforts to improve security co-operation with its neighbours, Chad, the Deomcratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Sudan and Uganda. Co-operation with Chad, the CAR's ally and neighbour, has intensified after Mr Laddé's surrender, and after a bilateral agreement to have some of Chad's refined oil products exported to the CAR. In contrast, instability in the Sudans is likely to create new tensions with the CAR, especially if the CAR sustains casualties, as happened in April 2012, or if the CAR government suspects its Sudanese counterparts of supporting rebel groups and militias that undermine stability in neighbouring countries. Although integration within the Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa (known by its French acronym, CEMAC) will, in theory, top the foreign policy agenda, disagreements over governance and the pace and form of integration will prevent dramatic improvements in regional co-operation. The CAR government will continue to seek increased security assistance from other countries, notably South Africa and China, from which the CAR is seeking increased technical assistance for the army. The European Commission and the US have resumed full co-operation and, following the approval of a new Fund programme in mid-2012, other donors have started to re-engage with the country. However, they will remain cautious because of the slow progress towards peace and democracy and the government's fiscal mismanagement, as highlighted by a Fund mission in the CAR in November 2012. It is likely that donor re-engagement will be tentative throughout 2013-14.

  POLICY TRENDS: After two years of interruption, the approval of a new three-year ECF programme with the Fund will give economic policymaking fresh impetus. Under the new ECF, authorities will try to strike a balance between necessary fiscal consolidation and the imperative of poverty reduction. Fiscal consolidation will require improving domestic revenue mobilisation and donor relations while also bolstering public financial management, governance, transparency and fiscal discipline. The Economist Intelligence Unit expects some improvement on the revenue side, driven by renewed donor support and tax administration reforms, but slow progress on fiscal sustainability. In addition, donors will remain constrained by domestic budgetary austerity measures and wary of the government's fiscal or authoritarian slippages. Given the CAR's fragile political and economic environment, policy implementation as planned under the second-generation Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP II) for 2011-15, will be slow and partial. Reforms aimed at improving the environment for businesses and investors, strengthening competitiveness and boosting financial intermediation will also be limited, meaning that the CAR is unlikely to move up much in the World Bank's annual Doing Business rankings, in which it is currently placed last. Despite persistent weaknesses in expenditure management, the fiscal deficit is set to come in at 0.7% of GDP in 2012, compared with 2.4% of GDP a year earlier, on the back of resuming donor support and revenue mobilisation efforts under the ECF. Conditional upon broad compliance with the Fund's programme and ongoing donor re-engagement, revenue is set to increase further in 2013-14. Expenditure will also rise, although we expect a small rebalancing from domestically financed current expenditure towards investment expenditure funded by external aid. Overall, we forecast a further improvement in the fiscal situation, with the deficit narrowing further, to 0.4% of GDP in 2013 and 0.2% of GDP in 2014. The Banque des Etats de l'Afrique centrale (BEAC) has broadly tracked European Central Bank (ECB) policy, and we expect it to continue with this approach. The ECB cut its refinancing rate by 25 basis points to a new record low of 0.75% in July 2012. We expect it to cut the rate by a further 25 basis points to 0.5% in 2013, before gradually tightening policy from 2014 onwards.

  ECONOMIC GROWTH: After accelerating to an estimated 3.8% in 2012, real GDP growth will increase further to 4.1% in 2013 and 4.5% in 2014. Resuming aid inflows, a pick-up in public investment and solid performance in the diamond and cotton export sectors will support this acceleration, as will increased investment in the natural resources and mining sector (especially diamonds and gold) and the coming on stream of a 10-mw hydropower plant at Boali, expected in 2013. However, the CAR's risky investment environment will continue to discourage foreign companies. Parts of the country are not entirely under government control, limiting formal business activity, particularly in the diamond and the (potential) oil sector in the northern provinces. In 2012 Areva, the French nuclear giant, suspended its uranium project at Bakouva, for security concerns among other reasons. The eventual achievement of political stability will also be essential for consolidating recovery in the agricultural sector, which employs rudimentary techniques, as well as encouraging the return of plantation farmers and members of the local business community who have fled because of the armed conflicts that have troubled the CAR since the mid-1990s.

  EXTERNAL ACCOUNT: We expect exports to increase in 2013-14, buoyed by rising diamond and timber exports and a recovery in cotton export volumes. This increase will be offset by higher imports required to support mining exploration and public-sector investment. Nonetheless, the trade deficit will fall as a proportion of GDP to an average of 5.7% of GDP in 2013-14, compared with 5.9% of GDP in 2012. The deficit on the services account will stabilise at 5.5% of GDP but widen in US dollar terms, from US$119m in 2012 to US$132m in 2014, reflecting an ongoing need for import-related services as well as high transport costs due to poor infrastructure. The income deficit will remain tiny and more or less constant, at 0.4% of GDP. After picking up to 4% of GDP in 2012 on the back of a resumption of aid inflows, the transfers surplus is set to recover further in 2013 and 2014, reaching 4.2% of GDP and 4.4% of GDP respectively. Overall, we expect a modest narrowing of the current-account deficit, from 7.7% of GDP in 2012 to 7.4% of GDP in 2013 and 7.2% of GDP in 2014. The deficit will be financed by foreign borrowing and foreign investment inflows.

  November 27, 2012

View detailed map

Country Briefing

Land area

622,984 sq km

Population

4.8m (World Gazetteer 2012 estimate)

Main towns

Population ('000, 2012 estimates)

Bangui (capital): 734

Bimbo: 250

Berbérati: 105

Carnot: 55

Kaga Bandoro: 28

Mbaiki: 25

Bozoum: 22

Climate

Tropical; savannah in the north, equatorial in the south; the dry season runs from November to March

Weather in Bangui (altitude 387 metres)

Hottest month, February, 21-34°C; coolest months, July and August, 21-29°C; driest month, December, 5 mm average rainfall; wettest month, July, 226 mm average rainfall

Languages

French (official language), Sango (national language), other African languages

Measures

Metric system

Currency

CFA franc (CFAfr); fixed to the euro at CFAfr655.96:€1

Time

1 hour ahead of GMT

Fiscal year

January 1st-December 31st

Public holidays

Fixed holidays: January 1st (New Year's Day); March 29th (Boganda Day); May 1st (Labour Day); June 30th (National Prayer Day); August 13th (Independence Day); August 15th (Assumption); November 1st (All Saints' Day); December 1st (Proclamation of the Republic); December 25th (Christmas)

Moveable holidays: Easter Monday, Ascension, Whit Monday

March 07, 2012