Benin

Politics:

• Analysis

  Benin politics: Quick View - Will the accused enjoy legal due process?

  Event

  Patrice Talon, a Beninois businessman who had fallen out with the president and is accused of masterminding an alleged attempted assassination, has been arrested and released in Paris.

  Analysis

  Bringing the alleged perpetrators to justice for their role in the attempted poisoning of the head of state, Boni Yayi, in October is proving complicated. Arrested and released on December 5th, Mr Talon must report regularly to the French authorities, while the government of Benin has 15 days to provide evidence backing up its extradition request, after which an appeal court in Paris must consider it within three months. A protracted legal battle can be expected as the government tries to convince the court that Mr Talon would not face any threat to his life should he return to Benin.

  Three other suspects-Soumanou Moudjaidou, a former trade minister and current managing director of the state-controlled cotton company; Ibrahim Mama Cisse, Mr Yayi's former doctor; and Zouberath Kora Seke, the president's niece and housekeeper-have been held in prison just outside Porto-Novo since their arrest in October. Going over the head of the investigating judge, however, the Ministry of Justice allowed General Cocou Sèmègan Legba, the chief of defence staff, to extract Mr Mama Cisse from prison for 15 hours on December 4th in order to face military disciplinary proceedings before the end of the civilian trial process.

  A letter supposedly signed by Mr Mama Cisse, requesting an audience with Mr Yayi, was later categorically denied by the doctor, who accused Mr Sèmègan of disseminating false information following the military questioning. Mr Yayi himself objected publically to the move, but as the president is also minister of defence, it is highly unlikely that he was unaware of it happening or powerless to prevent it.

  Ms Kora has also been extracted from custody for questioning by the military, and the accused's lawyers, Charles Badou and Mohamed Bare, have accused the authorities of torture. Furthermore, the authorities prevented the broadcast of a press conference organised by the lawyers to complain about the treatment of their clients.

  December 18, 2012

• Background

  Benin: Key figures

  Boni Yayi

  Boni Yayi was economic and financial adviser to a former president, Nicephore Soglo, from 1992 to 1994. He then became president of the regional development bank, Banque ouest-africaine de developpement (BOAD). During his time at the BOAD, Mr Yayi built up strong links with various economic bodies and heads of state in the region. He resigned from the BOAD presidency in January 2006 to run in the presidential election. He was sworn in as president on April 6th 2006 after securing 74.6% of the vote in the second round of the presidential election. His support base is from the north. (He is from Tchaourou in Borgou.) In the run-up to the March 2007 legislative election, he endorsed the Force cauris pour un Benin emergent coalition.

  Lehady Soglo

  The eldest son of Nicephore Soglo, he is currently honing his political skills as deputy mayor of Cotonou alongside his father. He was Renaissance du Benin's official presidential candidate in the March 2006 poll, but secured only 8.4% of the vote in the first round. He supported Mr Yayi in the second round of the election, but went on to win a parliamentary seat in the 2007 legislative election under the Alliance pour une dynamique democratique (ADD) coalition.

  Bruno Amoussou

  The leader of the Parti social-democrate (PSD), he masterminded the creation of the Union pour le Benin du futur (UBF), the pro-Kerekou coalition. However, he failed to prevent the divisions within the UBF or to ensure that the PSD was the leading party in the coalition. In the first round of the 2006 presidential election, he came third with 16.3% of the vote. He supported Mr Yayi in the second round of the poll and won a parliamentary seat in the 2007 legislative election for the ADD coalition.

  Adrien Houngbedji

  The leader of the Parti du renouveau democratique (PRD), Adrien Houngbedji has changed allegiance several times. He lost the second round run-off of the March 2006 presidential election to Mr Yayi, securing only 25.4% of the vote. In September 2006 he eventually ruled out the possibility of his party declaring itself as part of the official opposition. He won a parliamentary seat in the 2007 legislative election.

  The judiciary

  Benin has an Economic and Social Council, a Higher Audiovisual and Communications Authority (regulatory bodies that deal with complaints and cases in their respective sectors), and a seven-member Constitutional Court. The Constitutional Court has played a major role in mediating in the frequent clashes between the president and parliament. It has demonstrated impartiality in its rulings, and its decisions have been respected by both sides. An important early ruling by the Court was that the president could use emergency powers, including rule by decree, enabling both Mr Soglo and Mr Kerekou to implement the annual budget by decree on those occasions when it was rejected by parliament. A High Court of Justice, set up in February 2001, has the power to impeach the head of state and cabinet ministers on charges of high treason, conspiracy against state security or offences committed while holding office.

  The legislature

  The powers of the president—who is elected by direct national suffrage for five years, renewable once—are counterbalanced by the 83-seat National Assembly, elected every four years. The president cannot dissolve parliament. The president appoints the cabinet, which is answerable only to him. Some steps were taken in 2003 towards giving greater authority to the regions, with the government undertaking a programme of decentralisation. Some financial powers have been devolved to municipal councils headed by mayors.

  Media services

  Benin has a lively and varied press. Reporters sans frontieres, a French non-governmental organisation, ranked Benin 23rd out of 168 countries in 2006 in terms of press freedom. The fact that Benin was the highest-placed African country on the list highlights the high degree of press freedom that it currently enjoys. A government daily newspaper, La Nation, is published, as well as 11 independents, including Le Matin, Le Citoyen, Les Echos, Le Point au quotidien and Le Matinal, and many periodicals. There are five private television channels in addition to the state-owned station, Office de la radiodiffusion et television du Benin (ORTB). Radio coverage has expanded rapidly in recent years, and there are now 34 stations.

  Democracy index (for methodology, see Appendix)

  The Economist Intelligence Unit's 2008 democracy index ranks Benin 80th out of 167 countries, putting it among the 54 countries considered as flawed democracies. This designation includes other African states such as South Africa, Namibia and Lesotho, as well as two of the so-called BRIC emerging-market giants: Brazil and India. However, Benin is not well placed within this categorisation, ranking near the bottom. Benin's relatively good position in the overall index is a result of its healthy scores in the electoral process and civil liberties categories. The most recent national elections, in March 2006 (presidential) and March 2007 (legislative), were regarded as mostly free and fair, the process being clear and accepted, although because earlier elections were not as well run the process is not yet regarded as well established. Freedom of association and of the press have long been respected in the country, and Benin is ranked as having the most open media in Africa. Benin's poorest scores come in the political participation and political culture categories, as at present there is no functioning official opposition in the country and no credible challenge to the pro-presidential grouping, the Force cauris pour un Benin emergent (FCBE). The government continues to suffer from corruption and lack of capacity, resulting in a lower score in the government functioning category.

  Democracy index
  	Overall score	Overall rank	Electoral process	Government functioning	Political participation	Political culture	Civil liberties	Regime type
  Benin	6.06	80	7.33	6.43	4.44	5.63	6.47	Flawed democracy
  Overall and component scores are on a scale of 0 to 10; overall rank is out of 167 countries.

  Download text file (csv format)

  June 30, 2008

• Structure

  Benin: Political structure

  Official name

  République du Bénin

  Form of state

  Unitary republic

  Legal system

  Based on December 1990 constitution

  National legislature

  National Assembly with 83 seats, elected by universal suffrage for a four-year term

  National elections

  March 2011 (presidential); April 2011 (legislative); next legislative and presidential elections due in 2016

  Head of state

  President, elected by universal suffrage for a five-year term, for a maximum of two terms

  National government

  The president and his appointed government; a new cabinet was appointed in May 2011

  Main political parties

  Forces cauris pour un Bénin emergent (FCBE), created in January 2007 to support the president, Boni Yayi, holds 41 seats in the National Assembly; the president is supported by the Renaissance du Bénin (RB) and two other smaller parties, Alliance cauris 2 and Alliance force dans l'unité (AFU); other smaller parties are likely to support the presidential majority; the main opposition alliance is Union fait la Nation, now dominated by Parti du renouveau démocratique (PRD) after the defection of the RB, but also including Parti social démocrate (PSD) and Mouvement africain pour la démocratie et le progrès (MADEP)

  President: Boni Yayi

  Prime minister: Pascal Irénée Koupaki

  Ministers of state

  Defence: Issifou Kogui N'Douro

  Key ministers

  Administrative & institutional reforms: Martial Souton

  Agriculture, livestock & fisheries: Kater Sadaï

  Communications & ICT: Max Awèkè

  Culture, tourism & literacy: Jean-Michel Abimbola

  Decentralisation & local government: Edou Raphaël

  Economic analysis: Marcel de Souza

  Economy & finance: Adidjatou Mathys

  Energy, oil exploration, mines & water: Jonas Gbian

  Environment, housing & urbanisation: Blaise Ahanhanzo-Glèlè

  Foreign affairs: Nassirou Arifari Bako

  Health: Akoko Kindé Gazard

  Higher education & research: François Abiola

  Industry, commerce and SMEs: Madina Séfou

  Institutional relations: Safiatou Bassabi

  Justice, legislation & human rights: Marie-Elise Gbèdo

  Microfinance & youth & female employment: Réckya Madougou

  Public service & labour: Maïmouna Kora Zaki

  Public works & transport: Lambert Koty

  Secondary education & professional training: Djimba Soumanou

  Youth & sports: Didier Aplogan Djibodé

  Delegate ministers

  Interior & security: Benoît Dègla

  Maritime economy & government spokesman: Valentin Djènontin

  Governor of regional central bank (BCEAO)

  Koné Tiémoko Meyliet

  October 09, 2012

Economy:

• Background

  Benin: Education

  Benin suffers from an inadequate education system owing to years of underinvestment. Most funds allocated to education are provided by donors. Indicators have nevertheless improved over the past decade, compared with most countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. In addition, education spending is expected to increase with the implementation of an IMF-supported poverty reduction strategy paper and the extra funds obtained through debt relief under the IMF-World Bank's heavily indebted poor countries (HIPC) initiative and the multilateral debt relief initiative (MDRI). In 2007 Benin was ranked 163rd out of 177 countries in the UN Development Programme's Human Development Index.

  Most people have limited access to education. Although Benin has a well-educated elite, most of the education indicators are low even by African standards, reflecting the poor access to schooling for the majority. The World Bank estimates adult literacy at 48% for men and 23% for women in 2006. Gross primary and secondary enrolment rates stood at 96% and 33%, respectively, in 2005. Frequent strikes by teachers because of poor working conditions and salaries have seriously disrupted the school timetable since 1998.

  June 30, 2008

• Structure

  Benin: Economic structure

  Economic structure: Annual indicators

  	2008a	2009a	2010a	2011a	2012b
  GDP at market prices (CFAfr bn)	2,976	3,174	3,301	3,449b	3,734
  GDP (US$ bn)	6.6	6.7	6.7	7.3b	7.3
  Real GDP growth (%)	5.1	3.8	2.6	3.2b	3.4
  Consumer price inflation (av; %)	7.9	2.2	2.3	2.7	6.5a
  Population (m)	8.4	8.6	8.9	9.1b	9.4
  Exports of goods fob (US$ m)	1,282	1,225	1,282	1,593	1,578
  Imports of goods fob (US$ m)	-1,890	-1,738	-1,775	-2,188	-2,136
  Current-account balance (US$ m)	-619	-756	-618	-700	-625
  Foreign-exchange reserves excl gold (US$ m)	1,263	1,230	1,200	887	977a
  Total external debt (US$ bn)	0.9	1.1	1.2	1.4	1.5
  Exchange rate (av) CFAfr:US$	447.8	472.2	495.3	471.9	514.1a
  a Actual. b Economist Intelligence Unit estimates.

  Download the numbers in Excel

  Origins of gross domestic product 2009	% of total	Components of gross domestic product 2009	% of total
  Agriculture	32.2	Total consumption	74.8
  Industry	13.1	Gross domestic investment	21.1
  Services	54.7	Exports of goods & services	18.0
  		Imports of goods & services	26.7
  Principal exports 2009	% of total	Principal imports 2009	% of total
  Cotton	12.4	Food	32.4
  Re-exports	46.3	Petroleum products	14.9
  Main destinations of exports 2011a	% of total	Main origins of imports 2011a	% of total
  India	15.9	China	31.3
  China	10.4	France	12.3
  Indonesia	3.6	UK	7.6
  Niger	2.5	US	6.8
  a Based on partners' trade returns; subject to a wide margin of error.

  Download the numbers in Excel

  Download text file (csv format)

  October 09, 2012

• Outlook

  Benin: Country outlook

  Benin: Country outlook

  FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT

  OVERVIEW: Backed by a strong legislative majority, Benin's president, Boni Yayi, will continue to implement his political and economic reform programme. The fiscal deficit will gradually narrow from an estimated 3.9% of GDP in 2012 to 3.1% of GDP in 2014 as the government responds to calls from the IMF for continued expenditure restraint. Monetary policy will continue to be determined by the regional central bank, Banque Centrale des États de l'Afrique de l'Ouest (BCEAO), which is expected to maintain the CF franc:euro peg. Real GDP will continue to accelerate over the 2013-14 forecast period, from an estimated 3.4% in 2012 on stronger cotton exports and a recovery in port activity, albeit held back by high fuel prices, to average 4.7% in 2013-14. After spiking in 2012 primarily owing to the reduction in fuel subsidies in neighbouring Nigeria and the impact of smuggled fuel, annual inflation will moderate in 2013-14 to average 3.3%. The current-account deficit will narrow from an estimated peak of 9.6% of GDP in 2011 to 5.1% of GDP in 2014 as global commodity prices fall (or at least stabilise), cotton output increases and food import demand falls.

  DOMESTIC POLITICS: Backed by a strong majority in the National Assembly, Mr Yayi has the opportunity to implement his long-promised programme of reform as he continues to maintain the unity of the coalition forces supporting him. Although he has so far been given the benefit of the doubt by the electorate-helped by his high-profile current chairmanship of the African Union-the president has found himself in trouble, becoming embroiled in episodes of mismanagement. After the presidential election, the outcome of which was disputed and led to some unrest, Mr Yayi promised radical economic and constitutional reform. If Mr Yayi implements his reform programme, popular discontent will continue to well up sporadically in 2013-14 in the form of demonstrations or riots. Anger is still widespread over frequent power cuts, continued allegations of official corruption, patchy welfare provision and a lack of jobs. Furthermore, some of the reforms urged by the Fund will continue to encounter entrenched opposition. These include the privatisation of the few remaining state-owned utilities and greater fiscal discipline over public-sector pay, which threatens the livelihoods of civil servants and the patronage networks on which many households rely. Notwithstanding unexpected political shocks that may lead to a vote of no confidence in the president or the government, presidential and legislative elections are not due until 2016. However, with Mr Yayi expected to step down at the end of his second term, as the constitution demands, prospective successors may assert themselves more strongly if they believe that public opinion is turning against the incumbent. In the meantime, while Mr Yayi has referred to his current term as his "second and last", there is continuing speculation that he may still seek an extension of his presidential term. If so, this could place him on a collision course with the Constitutional Court, which recently ruled that the provisions relating to presidential term limits (a maximum of five years and two terms) cannot be included in a proposed referendum on constitutional changes. Although the referendum may happen within 2013-14, the Economist Intelligence Unit does not expect the abolition of term limits.

  INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS: Mr Yayi will continue to strengthen relations with neighbours and will seek increased economic co-operation with other countries, notably China and India. Encouraged by Benin's commitment to the political and economic reform programme drawn up in co-operation with the Fund and the World Bank, donors-especially the EU countries-will support it with bilateral and multilateral aid. The national unity government should improve governance and the development agenda, and somewhat assuage donor concerns that funds for projects may be blocked or delayed. The government will seek to improve relations with the administration in Niger, with which it is planning to construct a crossborder railway line.

  POLICY TRENDS: Economic policy in 2013-14 will be guided by the need to re-establish a sound fiscal and economic position following the government's economic stimulus spending in 2008-09 and following the flooding of late 2010. Satisfied with the country's progress, in March 2012 the Fund released a further US$16.4m of Benin's three-year, US$118m Extended Credit Facility, following the third review. Despite an increase in the budget deficit in 2011-because of 2010 floods-there has been a strengthening in underlying fiscal performance. This has reflected a more conservative stance on the part of the authorities with regard to capital spending, after significant overruns in 2009 and early 2010. Nonetheless, the Fund is concerned that rapid wage growth could undermine fiscal sustainability over the medium term. It also urged the government to step up the pace of its structural reforms, with emphasis on expanding the revenue base, bolstering tax compliance, modernising the civil service and improving the efficiency of public enterprises. Employees of the failing power utility, Société béninoise d'énergie électrique (SBEE), will continue to resist reforms, and private investors will remain wary of the company's large debts. With the return to political stability that followed the 2011 elections, the government will have to push through controversial restructuring, not least to satisfy donors, who have called for reforms. The government also remains intent on selling its stake in the national telephone utility, Bénin télécoms. The capacity of Cotonou port, a key source of customs receipts and services income, is set to expand, with a French firm, Bolloré, investing CFAfr130bn (US$247m) in modernising facilities and extending the port. There is a new emphasis on security in the light of the rise in piracy against ships in port and in Beninese waters. However, the government's ambitious plans for large infrastructure projects, including construction of new ports and airports, will be delayed and scaled back in 2013-14 in order to reduce capital spending. A number of incidents of government interference with private companies could affect investor perceptions, and the country continues to underperform in international comparisons of competitiveness. The BCEAO cut its benchmark discount rate by 25 basis points to 4% in June-its first loosening since mid-2009. If inflation, GDP growth and credit growth in the region continue to slow, a further reduction might follow.

  ECONOMIC GROWTH: Boosted by stronger cotton exports and a recovery in port activity, growth is expected to accelerate in 2013 to 4.6% after meagre improvement in 2012 owing to in part to a delayed start to the cotton season caused by government mismanagement. Furthermore, fuel prices may be more stable in 2013 after rising in 2012 owing to the reduction in subsidies in Nigeria, which reduced disposable household income. Benin provides important port services to Nigeria, Niger and Burkina Faso-together they make up the equivalent of Benin's third-largest export market-and growth in these countries is expected to accelerate in 2013-14, helping growth firm in 2014 to 4.8%. The government will continue with its efforts to improve the unreliable power supply, which is a major drag on economic growth, through the privatisation of the SBEE and steep rises in electricity prices (although the latter will themselves act as an obstacle to growth). The expansion and upgrade of Cotonou port under the private management of Bolloré, with extra aid from the EU, should provide a fillip to growth, as it will increase capacity to handle regional trade. A recovery in cotton production, which was badly affected by the impact of flooding in October 2010, is now under way as a result of post-flood replanting and lower input costs, including a new subsidy on insecticide. However, production is unlikely to return to historical levels, given continuing underinvestment and inability to match the subsidies enjoyed by foreign cotton growers. As aid accounts for the majority of investment in public infrastructure projects, growth in construction will continue in 2013-14, albeit at a slow pace; private foreign direct investment will remain depressed, although it may be encouraged by the need to rebuild post-flood capacity. Given the government's ostensible commitment to its reform agenda, and humanitarian and reconstruction needs, Benin may escape cuts in the aid budgets of its donors.

  EXTERNAL ACCOUNT: Despite significantly lower cotton volumes in the October-September 2010/11 season, rapidly rising prices, which reached all-time highs, supported export earnings in 2011. Prices have fallen significantly since mid-2011 and will only recover marginally in 2013-14, while output is unlikely to recover as strongly as the government expects. Subdued-if moderately rising-prices over the medium term will force many farmers into other crops. Although re-exports to neighbouring Nigeria will grow at a slower pace in 2012, global and smuggled energy prices will fall over 2013-14. Together with a sharp decline in demand for imported food (which had spiked in 2011 as a result of the crop losses caused by the flooding), this should mean that the trade deficit shrinks from an estimated US$560m in 2012 to US$407m by 2014. The porous nature of Benin's long land borders and the high level of corruption will make cracking down on crossborder smuggling difficult, and the informal trading sector is expected to remain significant. The historical structural deficit on the services account will narrow to average 1.2% of GDP in 2013-14 and remain in this region over the longer term on the back of growing trade services for Nigeria and Niger (helped by new rail infrastructure). The income deficit will average just 0.3% of GDP in 2013-14 because of low interest rates and heavy dependence on concessional financing. Overall, we forecast that the current-account deficit will narrow from an estimated peak of 9.6% of GDP in 2011 to 5.1% of GDP in 2014.

  October 10, 2012

View detailed map

Country Briefing

Land area

112,622 sq km

Population

9.9m (mid-year 2011 UN estimate)

Main towns

Population in '000 (2012 estimates from World Gazetteer):

Cotonou: 779.3

Abomey-Calavi: 452.8

Porto Novo (capital): 267.2

Climate

Tropical, drier in the north

Weather in Cotonou (altitude 7 metres)

Hottest month, March, 26-28°C; coldest month, August, 23-25°C; driest month, December, 13 mm average rainfall; wettest month, June, 366 mm average rainfall

Languages

French, Fon, Yoruba and others

Measures

Metric system

Time

1 hour ahead of GMT

Public holidays

Fixed: January 1st, January 10th (Vodoun Day), May 1st (Labour Day), August 1st (Independence Day), August 15th (Assumption), November 1st (All Saints' Day), December 25th

Variable (according to Christian and Muslim calendars): Eid al-Adha (Tabaski), Prophet's Birthday, Eid al-Fitr, Easter Monday, Ascension Day, Whit Monday

July 12, 2012