Burundi

Politics:

• Analysis

  Burundi politics: Quick View - UN conference revives political dialogue

  Event

  The UN Office in Burundi (generally known by its French acronym, BNUB) organised a high-level workshop with members from all major political parties on March 11th-13th.

  Analysis

  The workshop marks a big step forward for Burundi's fragile democratic process. It re-established some level of trust between the government and the opposition, which have been in constant friction since most opposition parties boycotted national elections in 2010. Two opposition leaders, Alexis Sinduhije from the Mouvement pour la solidarité et le développement (MSD) and Pascaline Kampayano from Union pour la paix et le développement-Zigamibanga (UPD-Zigamibanga), agreed to return from exile for the meeting, and are likely to stay to prepare for the 2015 elections. It resulted in a road map for "the organisation of inclusive, transparent, free and fair elections in 2015". The outcome document foresees, among other things, an ongoing dialogue between all political parties and the independent electoral commission in preparation for the next polls, security guarantees for all parties and their leaders, and a consensual revision of the electoral law before the end of 2013.

  Following this successful dialogue, we expect some relaxation in Burundi's tense political climate. The UN workshop was positively received by all participants as well as the country's media. The latter's endorsement was probably helped by the earlier release (for health reasons) of Hassan Ruvakuki, a Burundian journalist who had been condemned to life imprisonment last year, before his sentence was reduced (to three years) in January. Positive signs on the political front might also have a knock-on impact on the economy, since much of the aid pledges to Burundi are contingent on improvements in democracy and human rights.

  Many challenges remain if Burundi is to achieve political normalisation and organise successful national elections in 2015. Mistrust between rival elites has not receded. Some opposition members, including Agathon Rwasa, who headed the Forces nationales de libération (FNL) at the time of the 2010 polls, remain in exile. For all the commitments made, the ruling party, Conseil national pour la défense de la démocratie-Forces pour la défense de la démocratie (CNDD-FDD), does not intend to relinquish power. Until recently, the authorities appeared to move towards a reduction in political space, alienating the opposition as well as civil society and donors.

  March 20, 2013

• Background

  Burundi: Key figures

  Pierre Nkurunziza

  The 43-year-old Mr Nkurunziza has been president since 2005 and leads a faction of the Conseil national pour la defense de la democratie-Forces pour la defense de la democratie (CNDD-FDD). After a convincing election victory in 2005 Mr Nkurunziza's presidency made a promising start, but by mid-2006 had lost direction. There followed unsubstantiated coup allegations by the president and then a spate of arrests of prominent opposition politicians. In 2007, with speculation mounting that he would not last much longer in office, Mr Nkurunziza took dramatic action to rescue the situation, purging the unpopular Mr Radjabu and his supporters from his administration. But when Mr Radjabu's allies in parliament withdrew their support for Mr Nkurunziza, he was forced to offer major concessions in return for opposition party support, leaving him much weakened.

  Hussein Radjabu

  Formerly the secretary-general of CNDD-FDD, Mr Radjabu became party president in July 2005, when Mr Nkurunziza resigned in order to become the national president. An impressive strategist, Mr Radjabu crafted the CNDD-FDD's successful strategy of staying outside the Arusha peace process, and then agreeing a separate political settlement on its own terms. He was widely seen as responsible for the arrest and prosecution for alleged treason of senior opposition politicians in 2006, and when the charges were thrown out of court, Mr Radjabu was left vulnerable. Mr Nkurunziza's purge came soon after; in April 2007, Mr Radjabu was imprisoned, found guilty of treason and sentenced to 13 years in prison in April 2008. Mr Radjabu has remained politically active despite this sentence, and has managed to retain control of his CNDD-FDD faction from behind bars, thereby remaining a considerable threat to Mr Nkurunziza.

  Agathon Rwasa

  The president of the Parti pour la liberation du peuple Hutu-Forces nationales pour la liberation (Palipehutu-FNL), Mr Rwasa surprised many by agreeing in September 2006 to a ceasefire despite apparently gaining little in return. It has since become clear that Mr Rwasa requires major political and military concessions before ending the war, and the ceasefire remains unimplemented. Mr Rwasa seems unlikely ever to be offered much by Mr Nkurunziza's government and at the same time is nowhere close to achieving military victory against the national army, the Force de defense nationale (FDN). Mr Rwasa's most optimistic scenario is that the CNDD-FDD will disintegrate further as national elections draw closer, giving the Palipehutu-FNL the opportunity to position itself as the true voice of the Hutu majority.

  Major-General Germain Niyoyankana

  Defence minister. As FDN chief of staff, Mr Niyoyankana, who is a Tutsi, coped well with the task of integrating CNDD-FDD and other militia fighters into the former national army, the Forces armees du Burundi, which was made up mainly of Tutsis. Mr Niyoyankana is identified by many Tutsis as a key guarantor of their safety under a CNDD-FDD-led government, although it is far from clear that he is prepared to, or indeed would be able to, play the role to any great extent.

  Clotilde Nizigama

  Clotilde Nizigama of the CNDD-FDD was appointed finance minister in mid-2007, the third occupant of this key position in just 12 months. Ms Nizigama's two most recent predecessors lost their jobs because of alleged corruption, significantly tarnishing the credibility of the Ministry of Finance. Ms Nizigama is restrained by the lack of domestic recognition for the government, which has done little to persuade weary donors to increase their engagement in the country.

  The judiciary

  Like its predecessors, the constitution guarantees the independence of the judiciary, although in practice judges, who are appointed by the government, have generally proved to be strongly influenced by political pressure. Encouragingly, in mid-2006 High Court judges dismissed for lack of evidence a state prosecution for treason of opposition political leaders. More typical was a Supreme Court verdict in April 2008, which on apparently weak evidence found former CNDD-FDD president Mr Radjabu guilty of plotting against the state, and sentenced him to 13 years imprisonment.

  The legislature

  The constitution was signed into law in March 2005 and is designed to ensure a balance of power between Hutus and Tutsis (although an estimated 85% of the population is Hutu); it prescribes 60% Hutu and 40% Tutsi representation at all levels of government. However, the ethnic quotas are for people, not parties, meaning the ruling party can fill the quota from among its own ranks, rather than from delegates of other parties. The constitution also requires the representation of women in politics, stipulating that at least one of the vice-presidents and 30% of the members of the government, the Senate and the National Assembly be women.

  The influence of the legislature is largely dependent on the size of the government's majority. During the initial period of CNDD-FDD rule, when the still-united party had a massive majority in the National Assembly and Senate, the two bodies did little more than rubber-stamp government decisions. After Mr Radjabu's arrest, around 20 CNDD-FDD National Assembly members withdrew their support for the government, depriving it of its majority, and forcing the president in November 2007 to form a new coalition with opposition parties. This strengthened the National Assembly's influence, and it has since tried to change government policy in key areas, most notably concerning how to conduct negotiations with the Palipehutu-FNL rebel group.

  Media services

  Radio is Burundi's main communications medium. There is a refreshing plurality of choice on the airwaves and considerable freedom of expression, but the main stations are state-owned, including Radiodiffusion et television nationale du Burundi. In addition, there is Radio chambre du commerce et d'industrie du Burundi, which has close links with the Ministry of Commerce. Radio France International is available, as is the BBC World Service, in both English and Kirundi. Burundian television is state-controlled and unswervingly pro-government. Foreign news coverage is licensed from French television. Burundi's main news agency is the state-owned Association burundaise de presse. The independent Netpress agency supports the radical Tutsi opposition and is often in trouble with the authorities. Newspaper circulation figures are tiny, and negligible outside Bujumbura. Le Renouveau is the government newspaper. The pro-Frodebu L'Aube is available in Bujumbura. A variety of mostly pro-Tutsi newspapers also make irregular appearances.

  Democracy index (for methodology, see Appendix)

  With a history of political instability, ethnic strife and civil war Burundi is positioned towards the bottom of the Economist Intelligence Unit Democracy index, ranked 108th out of 169 countries. Its recent steps towards democracy, however, puts it in the category of a hybrid regime rather than an authoritarian one. All the same, restrictions on the media, allegations of ethnic-based discrimination and a judiciary perceived to be biased in favour of the government ensure Burundi scores poorly in the civil liberties category. This will not have been helped by the recent trial of the president of the ruling party, Hussein Radjabu—sentenced to 13 years imprisonment in April 2008 by the Supreme Court for plotting against the state—with reports that evidence against him was unconvincing and suspicions that the verdict was politically motivated.

  The harsh reality, that Burundi is merely at the beginning of a long, unforgiving road towards full democracy, is echoed throughout the categories. It achieves its best score in political culture, propped up by the general support among its citizens for democracy, even though their experience of it is has been less than ideal. It performs poorly in electoral process but, despite opposition complaints of intimidation in the 2005 election, the polls were seen as a relative success by the UN Security Council and the EU among others. Its poor showing in political participation disguises the fact that it is improving, albeit slowly and erratically, from a dreadful past record: the Constitution that was approved in 2005 outlines a requirement for a balance of power between Hutus and Tutsis at all levels of government. It also—for the first time in Burundi's history—requires the representation of women in politics, stipulating that at least one of the vice-presidents and 30% of the members of the government are women.

  However Burundi continues to promise more than it delivers. Its performance in government functioning, for instance, is abysmal. The split in the CNDD-FDD has created a legislative paralysis and a new coalition government has improved matters little with bills frequently delayed for months. Investors and foreign agencies cannot rely on speed or predictability in their dealings with the slow-moving government agencies on which they depend, and neither can the justice system be relied on to enforce contracts or property rights.

  Democracy index
  	Overall score	Overall rank	Electoral process	Government functioning	Political participation	Political culture	Civil liberties	Regime type
  Burundi	4.51	108	4.42	3.29	3.89	6.25	4.71	Hybrid regime
  Overall and component scores are on a scale of 0 to 10; overall rank is out of 167 countries.

  Download text file (csv format)

  June 02, 2008

• Structure

  Burundi: Political structure

  Official name

  République du Burundi

  Form of state

  Unitary republic

  Legal system

  Based on Belgian law; a new constitution was adopted in 2005

  National legislature

  National Assembly elected in July 2010, with 106 members; Senate elected by communal councillors in July 2010

  National elections

  Following elections in 2010, the next National Assembly and Senate elections will be held in July 2015

  Head of state

  President elected in June 2010 for a second five-year term by popular vote; next election is scheduled for June 2015

  National government

  Appointed in August 2010, last reshuffled in February 2012

  Main political parties

  Conseil national pour la défense de la démocratie-Forces pour la défense de la démocratie (CNDD-FDD); Front pour la démocratie au Burundi (Frodebu); Union pour le progrès national (Uprona); Mouvement pour la réhabilitation des citoyens-Rurenzangemero (MRC-Rurenzangemero); Parti pour le redressement national (Parena); other parties include: Conseil national pour la défense de la démocratie (CNDD); Forces nationales de libération (FNL); Inkinzo; Mouvement pour la solidarité et le développement (MSD); Parti du peuple (PP); Parti pour la libération du peuple Hutu (Palipehutu); Parti pour la socio-démocratie (PSD); Parti pour la réconciliation du peuple (PRP); Rassemblement pour la démocratie et le développement économique et social (Raddes); Rassemblement pour le peuple du Burundi (RPB); Union pour la paix et le développement–Zigamibanga (UPD-Zigamibanga)

  Key ministers

  President: Pierre Nkurunziza (CNDD-FDD)

  First vice-president: Thérence Sinunguruza (Uprona)

  Second vice-president: Gervais Rufyikiri (CNDD-FDD)

  Agriculture: Odette Kayitesi (CNDD-FDD)

  Civil service & social security: Anonciata Sendazirasa (CNDD-FDD)

  Commerce & industry: Victoire Ndikumana (Uprona)

  Defence: Pontien Gaciyubwenge (military)

  East African Community affairs: Hafsa Mossi (CNDD-FDD)

  Education & scientific research: Julien Nimubona (Uprona)

  Energy & mines: Côme Manirakiza (CNDD-FDD)

  Finance & economic planning: Tabu Abdallah Manirakiza (CNDD-FDD)

  Foreign affairs & co-operation: Laurent Kavakure (CNDD-FDD)

  Good governance & state inspection: Issa Ngendakumana (Frodebu-Nyakuri)

  Health: Sabine Ntakarutimana (CNDD-FDD)

  Human rights, national solidarity & gender: Clotilde Niragira (CNDD-FDD)

  Interior: Edouard Nduwimana (CNDD-FDD)

  Justice: Pascal Barandagiye (neutral)

  Public security: Gabriel Nizigama (CNDD-FDD)

  Telecommunications & information: Concilie Nibigara (Uprona)

  Transport & public works: Moïse Bucumi (CNDD-FDD)

  Central bank governor

  Gaspard Sindayigaya

  November 01, 2012

Economy:

• Background

  Burundi: Economic background

  Real gross domestic product by sector
  (% share of GDP)
  	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007
  Agriculture	40.1	40.1	34.8	34.2	33.7
  Industry	18.9	18.9	20.0	20.4	20.9
  Services	41.0	41.0	45.1	45.5	45.4
  Source: Economist Intelligence Unit.

  Download text file (csv format)

  June 02, 2008

• Structure

  Burundi: Economic structure

  Economic structure: Annual indicators

  	2008a	2009a	2010a	2011b	2012b
  GDP at market prices (Bufr bn)	1,911.1	2,205.4	2,565.5	2,895.2	3,626.5
  GDP (US$ bn)	1.6	1.8	2.1	2.3	2.5
  Real GDP growth (%)	4.5	3.5	3.6b	4.0	4.1
  Consumer price inflation (av; %)	24.1	11.0	6.4	9.7a	17.5
  Population (m)	7.9	8.2	8.4	8.6	8.7
  Exports of goods fob (US$ m)	69.6	68.2	101.2b	102.4	106.0
  Imports of goods fob (US$ m)	338.1	335.0	670.5b	745.2	768.0
  Current-account balance (US$ m)	-68.5	-142.5	-190.2b	-340.1	-417.3
  Foreign-exchange reserves excl gold (US$ m)	265.7	322.0	330.7	294.0a	357.5
  Exchange rate Bufr:US$ (av)	1,185.7	1,230.2	1,230.7	1,261.1a	1,439.8
  a Actual. b Economist Intelligence Unit estimates.

  Download the numbers in Excel

  Origins of gross domestic product 2005	% of total	Components of gross domestic product 2010	% of total
  Agriculture	34.8	Private consumption	91.6
  Industry	20.0	Government consumption	15.7
  Services	45.1	Gross domestic investment	18.9
  		Exports of goods & services	10.5
  		Imports of goods & services	-30.0
  Principal exports 2005	% of total	Principal imports 2005	% of total
  Coffee	72.1	Intermediate goods	50.9
  Tea	15.7	Consumption goods	29.8
  Manufactures	9.3	Capital goods	18.6
  Main destinations of exports 2011a	% of total	Main origins of imports 2011a	% of total
  Germany	15.7	Saudi Arabia	16.8
  China	10.5	Belgium	8.2
  Sweden	9.5	China	7.5
  Belgium	9.0	Uganda	7.4
  a Derived from partners' trade returns.

  Download the numbers in Excel

  Download text file (csv format)

  November 01, 2012

• Outlook

  Burundi: Country outlook

  Burundi: Country outlook

  FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT

  OVERVIEW: Burundi's ruling Conseil national pour la défense de la démocratie-Forces pour la défense de la démocratie (CNDD-FDD) and the president, Pierre Nkurunziza, are expected to remain dominant over the 2013-14 forecast period. Tensions between the government on the one hand and the media, civil society and opposition parties on the other are expected to intensify, boosting risks to political stability. GDP growth is expected to reach 4.3% in 2013 and 4.6% in 2014, on the back of solid agricultural and construction activity, although this is contingent on political stability, weather conditions and international oil and food prices. The fiscal deficit will widen from 3.3% of GDP in 2012 to 3.9% of GDP in 2014. Improved domestic revenue collection will not be sufficient to offset continued expenditure growth and a decline in aid. After surging to 17.5% in 2012, inflation will moderate to 10% and 8% respectively in 2013 and 2014, helped by easing international food prices. The current-account deficit will fall from 16.6% of GDP in 2012 to 15% of GDP in 2014 on the back of healthy economic growth and a slight pick-up in agricultural exports.

  DOMESTIC POLITICS: The Economist Intelligence Unit expects the president and his Hutu-dominated ruling party, CNDD-FDD, to dominate the political scene throughout 2013-14. Political stability is expected to deteriorate, as there are no signs of improvement in the political deadlock between the CNDD-FDD and various opposition groupings that reject the 2010 election results. As elections in 2015 draw nearer, the issue of succession will raise tensions within the CNDD-FDD. Mr Nkurunziza has to step down in theory, although he might try to use a long-mooted constitutional review to raise the presidential term limit. With many would-be successors within the CNDD-FDD, divisions between the party's various regional factions will become apparent, although we would expect the president to keep the upper hand and avoid a party split. There is no effective opposition presence in either the CNDD-FDD-dominated National Assembly or the Senate. Only the predominantly Tutsi Union pour le progrès national (Uprona)-which, failing to attract voters outside the Tutsi minority, had no interest in boycotting the 2010 elections-has a sizeable presence in parliament. Uprona therefore has the right to participate in government, including, among other things, appointing the country's first vice-president. As the political deadlock continues, divisions within Uprona about its participation in government will intensify. However, its leaders' instincts are to remain as close to power as possible, meaning that these divisions are more likely to lead to a split within Uprona than a withdrawal from government. Three of the leaders of opposition parties that boycotted the elections have since fled the country, claiming to be in fear for their lives. A new law, voted in by the Assembly, will strictly control the organisation and activities of opposition parties. Meanwhile, political harassment, disappearances and killings are on the rise. Although Mr Nkurunziza claims that he wants to meet opposition party leaders, he has set conditions apparently designed to goad these leaders into refusing such a meeting. Political dialogue will remain at an impasse unless regional heads of state and international donors intervene, which is unlikely in the short term. Tensions between the government and any group of "unidentified bandits" will continue to build, and we expect this to translate into additional reports of murder and political violence throughout the country. A critical issue will be the position of the courts. Burundi's judiciary is generally pliant to the executive but occasionally digs in its heels and acquits opponents of the government. How the courts handle the many forthcoming trials of opposition activists and journalists will be important in determining the extent to which the government succeeds in imposing its ongoing restriction of political space.

  INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS: Regional heads of state are not yet ready to weigh in on Burundi's political deadlock, but donor attitudes are hardening. We expect that during 2013-14 they will increasingly tie continued assistance to dialogue between political leaders rather than to vaguer demands for "better governance". On the other hand, newer partners such as India and China, which are less concerned about Burundi's political and governance record, will invest further in the country. Meanwhile, the country's deepening integration into the East African Community (EAC) will continue to improve regional political and economic ties. The South African government has worked hard to ensure the success of the political transition that brought Mr Nkurunziza to power, and will continue to exert influence while also deepening economic ties. Burundi will increase its level of troop deployment to the African Union peacekeeping mission in Somalia, despite further loss of life and threats against the country from Somalia's al-Shabab militia.

  POLICY TRENDS: The country's economic policy orientation is, in theory, rooted in its second Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (Cadre stratégique de croissance et de lutte contre la pauvreté; CSLP-II), which covers 2012-15. The CSLP-II aims to focus on reforms to enhance economic growth while also safeguarding the social achievements of the first CSLP, which concentrated mainly on health and education. The 2012 budget reflected this orientation by prioritising capital spending, especially on agriculture and infrastructure projects that could relieve supply bottlenecks, and the 2013 budget is expected to maintain that trend. However, fiscal space is minimal and the Burundian economy is extremely vulnerable to external shocks, meaning that emergency measures aimed at tempering adverse macroeconomic conditions often get in the way of government investments. In addition, public expenditure management is so weak, and the political incentives to keep it that way are so strong, that a substantive reorientation in the government's capital expenditure patterns is unlikely. A three-year IMF Extended Credit Facility (ECF), approved in 2012, will boost the pace of reforms aimed at strengthening public financial management, guaranteeing debt sustainability, developing the private and financial sectors and privatising public enterprises, especially in the coffee sector. Although a Fund endorsement should encourage donors to increase financial assistance, this will be counteracted by increased international concerns over governance and austerity measures in donor countries, which have already reduced their aid in 2012. Despite the new CSLP and ECF, reform implementation will be slow, because of weak capacity and reduced political will. The Fund has positively concluded its first review of the 2012-15 ECF, praising the authorities for meeting all quantitative targets by the end of March 2012 despite adverse external economic conditions. Following the publication of new GDP data, our estimate of the 2012 fiscal deficit has been revised to 3.3% of GDP, as against 5% of GDP previously, reflecting an increase in nominal GDP. The African Development Bank has approved a US$18m budget support grant, which will help to stem the expansion of the fiscal deficit. Faced with a deteriorating macroeconomic outlook, the government in June 2012 introduced a revised budget law that prioritised socially sensitive recurrent expenditure over domestically financed capital expenditure. In 2013-14 we expect the government to maintain its expansionist fiscal approach, despite sober promises to the Fund.

  ECONOMIC GROWTH: Burundi has revised its national accounts, which has led to an increase in GDP data since 2007. Real GDP growth in 2012 is now estimated at 4.1%, but remains undermined by protracted electricity shortfalls and adverse external conditions (high oil prices have constrained domestic demand, while sluggish growth in the EU has curtailed aid and trade flows). We expect economic growth to accelerate, to 4.3% in 2013 and 4.6% in 2014. Agriculture is expected to remain very vulnerable to weather conditions, although the recent increase in investment will yield some results. The manufacturing sector is expected to continue on its modest growth path, but textile output is unlikely to pick up in the short term and energy shortages will remain a problem despite the anticipated arrival of generators for the state energy company, Regideso. We expect modest increases in the production of beer and household consumer goods. Further integration with the EAC will support growth in the wholesale and retail sectors, while also spurring investment in the services sector. Agricultural performance is a major risk to this forecast, as adverse weather conditions may cause the sector's performance to disappoint. The outlook is also highly dependent on domestic security conditions and economic conditions in the EU, Burundi's major trade and aid partner. Finally, concerns over corruption could cause further suspensions or delays to affect donor-funded projects, which may limit growth in infrastructure and in sectors such as education and health. The double-digit inflation rate moderated in the third quarter of the year, mainly as a result of temporary tax exemptions on basic food items and imports.

  EXTERNAL ACCOUNT: Import costs are typically more than four times export earnings, and there seems to be no prospect of this ratio altering significantly during 2013-14. Assuming normal weather conditions, production and export volumes of tea and coffee, which together account for close to 90% of export receipts, are set to rise in 2013-14, on the back of increases in investment and planted area. In 2013 these gains will be offset to a degree by an expected fall in the international prices of coffee and tea, but an expected pick-up in the price of coffee in 2014 will drive a rise in export values. Meanwhile, imports will continue to rise as a result of historically high international prices and a capital-starved construction sector. Burundi's services deficit is expected to widen along with increased trade volumes, which result in higher freight costs. The transfer surplus, while still high, will drop as a result of lower aid inflows and will not be high enough to make up for the goods and services deficit. Overall, we forecast that the current-account deficit will fall from 16.6% of GDP in 2012 to 15% of GDP in 2014. It will be financed through concessional borrowing from multilateral and bilateral creditors.

  November 01, 2012

View detailed map

Country Briefing

Land area

26,338 sq km

Population

8.8m (2012 IMF estimate)

Population density

334 people/sq km

Main town

Bujumbura (capital), population 392,863 (2012 World Gazetteer estimate)

Climate

Tropical

Weather in Bujumbura

Average annual temperature, 24°C; driest months, June-September; wettest months, February-May; average monthly rainfall 65 mm

Languages

Kirundi and French

Currency

Burundi franc (Bufr) = 100 centimes

Time

2 hours ahead of GMT

Public holidays

January 1st (New Year's Day), February 5th (Unity Day), April 6th (President Ntaryamira Day), May 1st (Labour Day), June 2nd (Ascension), July 1st (Independence Day), August 15th (Assumption), October 13th (Rwagasore Day), October 21st (Ndadaye Day), November 1st (All Saints' Day), December 25th (Christmas Day)

February 01, 2013