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Armenia

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Politics:

  • Analysis

    Armenia politics: Armenia makes progress on EU integration

    After more than two years of talks, Armenia and the EU are close to signing a far-reaching association agreement that will move the small South Caucasus state, traditionally reliant on Russia, much closer to the West. In practice, the agreement-due to be finalised by November-will preclude Armenia's membership of the closer union of former Soviet republics that is being promoted by Russia. Armenia seems keen to avoid being drawn into the planned Eurasian Union, despite deepening military ties with the Kremlin. The EU is pressing ahead with a conference of international donors that could provide considerable economic assistance to Armenia.

    The association agreement stems from the EU's Eastern Partnership programme, which offers six former Soviet states, including Armenia, closer ties in return for sweeping economic and political reforms. Armenia and the EU officially began negotiations on this in July 2010. They launched separate talks in June 2012 on a key component of this complex accord, to establish the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement (DCFTA). This envisages not just a permanent free-trade regime, but also harmonisation of Armenian economic regulations with EU legislation.

    Yerevan EU talks advance

    As with the other countries covered by the Eastern Partnership, Armenia is eligible for an easing of the EU's stringent visa requirements and procedures for its citizens. An Armenia-EU visa facilitation deal was signed in Brussels in December 2012. It will be followed soon by a separate "readmission" agreement that will commit Armenia to helping to expedite the repatriation of Armenian illegal immigrants from the EU.

    The most recent round of association talks took place in Yerevan, the Armenian capital, in late March. The two sides announced afterwards that they had worked out key terms, essentially closing all outstanding issues with regard to the political aspects of the agreement. Spokesmen for the two sides said that the separate DCFTA talks were also nearing completion. According to the chief EU negotiator, Gunnar Wiegand, the parties plan to finalise the association agreement as a whole in time for the EU's Eastern Partnership November 2013 summit in the Lithuanian capital, Vilnius, and to sign it in 2014. He said that they were also beginning discussions on a roadmap for implementation, which will require a thorough reform of Armenia's legislative framework. To this end, Mr Wiegand met the parliamentary speaker and other senior members of Armenia's legislature during his visit.

    On Russia's customs union, an awkward silence

    These developments provide a further indication that Armenia is unlikely to join the Russian-dominated customs union, despite pressure from the Kremlin. The Russian president, Vladimir Putin, seems to regard expansion of this trade bloc as the first step towards the creation of a Russian-led Eurasian Union of former Soviet states. Mr Putin and his Armenian counterpart, Serzh Sargsyan, are thought to have talked over the idea during meetings over the past year. The most recent of these took place near Moscow on March 12th, amid speculation in the Armenian media that Mr Putin would demand a final answer on the issue from Mr Sargsyan. However, no firm decisions were announced by Russian or Armenian officials after the talks. Shortly afterwards, Mr Sargsyan denied that Russia was pressuring Armenia to join the customs union. He stopped short of advocating his country's membership, while reiterating his government's existing line of support for "integration processes" in post-Soviet space. Other senior Armenian officials have argued in recent months that Armenia cannot be a member of the customs union because it lacks borders with the organisation's three current members, Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan.

    For its part, the EU has made clear that Armenia's entry into the customs union would be incompatible with an EU association agreement. The fact that Armenia is continuing to push for association suggests that it thinks that, ultimately, the Kremlin will not object to its European integration. On March 19th Mr Sargsyan hinted that the Armenian and Russian governments would soon agree an alternative arrangement that falls short of full membership of the customs union.

    Russia maintains leverage

    During his five-year rule, Mr Sargsyan, who won a second term in office in a disputed election on February 18th, has consistently sought to complement Armenia's geopolitical alliance with Russia with close political, economic and military links with the US and the EU. This has earned him strong support in Western capitals and does not seem to have alienated Russian leaders. This may be because Russia feels safe in the knowledge that, with no solution in sight to Armenia's conflict with Azerbaijan over Nagorny Karabakh, Armenia will remain heavily dependent on its military alliance with Russia for the foreseeable future. In addition, Russia will retain control of strategic economic assets in Armenia-notably in the energy sector-and will remain the principal source of valuable remittance inflows.

    The US and the EU seem to be seizing upon an opportunity to anchor Russia's main ally in the South Caucasus more closely to the West, while accepting the geopolitical limits of this approach. The EU is encouraging Mr Sargsyan's multi-vector policy not only with the association agreement, but also with its pledge to organise the international donor conference. The West's largely positive assessment of the recent presidential election has paved the way for the holding of such a conference. The EU enlargement commissioner, Stefan Fule, said on March 20th that the European Commission would soon begin preparations for it.

    March 28, 2013

  • Background

    Armenia: Key figures

    Robert Kocharian

    Mr Kocharian began his political career in Nagorny Karabakh, where he was president from 1994 to 1996. After the 1996 presidential election in Armenia he was appointed prime minister by Levon Ter-Petrosian, and was therefore well placed to succeed Mr Ter-Petrosian when the latter resigned in early 1998. Mr Kocharian has steadily strengthened his grip on power, particularly since the parliamentary assassinations of October 1999, which removed many of his rivals from the political scene. He won re-election in March 2003 in a poll that was severely criticised by international observers. Mr Kocharian is ineligible to contest another presidential term, but there is speculation that he will assume the prime ministership, in the event that Serzh Sarkisian—the front-runner—wins the presidency in 2008.

    Serzh Sarkisian

    Interior minister under both Mr Ter-Petrosian and Mr Kocharian, Mr Sarkisian established Orinats Yerkir (Country of Law) for the 1999 parliamentary election, but stood for the Republican Party of Armenia (RPA) in the 2003 parliamentary election. Mr Sarkisian is Mr Kocharian's most influential supporter, and is regarded by many as the power behind the throne. Reappointed defence minister following the 2003 election, he gave up his parliamentary mandate to remain in the government. In 2006, however, he formally joined the RPA, and was elected chairman of its governing council. In April 2007 he was appointed prime minister, following the sudden death of Andranik Markarian. He was poised to be reappointed in early June, following the RPA's better than expected performance in the parliamentary election. This will provide him with a strong platform from which to contest the presidency in early 2008.

    Gagik Tsarukian

    Mr Tsarukian, a former champion arm-wrestler, is one of Armenia's wealthiest businessmen. He founded Prosperous Armenia in early 2006, with the stated aim of creating a new political force in the country, and succeeded in attracting figures from across the political spectrum. It was rumoured that he established the party to create a support base for Mr Kocharian when he leaves the presidency in 2008. Prosperous Armenia ran a controversial election campaign: Mr Tsarukian had established a charity, also called Prosperous Armenia, which he used to distribute financial and other aid to poor areas, prompting accusations from other parties that he was vote-buying. Despite claiming as many as 370,000 members by January 2007, Prosperous Armenia only won around half of that number of votes in the May election, leaving Mr Tsarukian in a weaker position than had been expecting, although his party has joined the new government. Mr Tsarukian's close links with Armenia's political and business elite will ensure that he remains an influential figure.

    Artur Baghdasarian

    Leader of Orinats Yerkir—a junior partner in the three-party coalition government that came to power following the 2003 election—Mr Baghdasarian was speaker of the National Assembly (parliament) from mid-2003 to mid-2006. Relations between Orinats Yerkir and the RPA were periodically tense during the party's participation in government in these years, with Mr Baghdasarian critical of the coalition's record on issues such as corruption. He also advocated a more balanced foreign policy, and in particular closer relations with the West. Mr Baghdasarian withdrew his party from the government in May 2006, and went into opposition. Relations between Mr Baghdasarian and the government deteriorated throughout 2006 and into 2007, and in the run-up to the election the pro-government Golos Armenii (Voice of Armenia) newspaper published the transcript of a conversation, secretly recorded, between Mr Baghdasarian and a British diplomat, in which Mr Baghdasarian apparently urged the EU to criticise the conduct of the election. This prompted Mr Kocharian to accuse Mr Baghdasarian of treason. Although his party's parliamentary presence has declined, Mr Baghdasarian is likely to be a vocal opponent of the government in the National Assembly, and will be a leading opposition challenger in the 2008 presidential election.

    Raffi Hovannisian

    A lawyer by training, the US-born Mr Hovannisian was briefly Armenia's foreign minister in the early 1990s. He was ruled ineligible to contest elections before 2007, having not been resident in Armenia for the requisite ten years. Mr Hovannisian's Heritage party was controversially forced out of its offices in early 2006 by the authorities, but still managed to secure around 6% of the vote in the May 2007 election. Mr Hovannisian's lack of association with previous governments could be his strongest asset, should he seek to contest the presidency in 2008.

    June 19, 2007

  • Structure

    Armenia: Political structure

    Official name

    Republic of Armenia

    Form of state

    The Republic of Armenia was independent between 1918 and 1921, but was incorporated into the Soviet Union in 1921. Following a referendum on September 21st 1991, Armenia became independent. A new constitution was adopted in July 1995 and revised in November 2005

    National legislature

    National Assembly with 131 deputies, of whom 41 are elected from single-member districts and 90 by party list

    National elections

    May 2012 (legislative) and February 2008 (presidential); next elections due in 2017 (legislative) and February 2013 (presidential)

    Head of state

    President, Serzh Sargsyan, directly elected in February 2008 for a five-year term

    National government

    The president appoints the prime minister, who appoints the members of government. The government in the parliamentary session from May 2007 to May 2012 was a coalition between the Republican Party of Armenia, Prosperous Armenia and Orinats Yerkir; the Armenian Revolutionary Federation withdrew from the coalition in April 2009. After the election in 2012, the Prosperous Armenia Party announced that it would not join the governing coalition. The Republican Party and Orinats Yerkir formed a governing coalition which was approved by parliament in June 2012

    Main political parties

    Armenian National Congress (ANC); Armenian National Movement; Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ARF; also known as Dashnaktsutiun); Christian Democratic Union of Armenia; Communist Party of Armenia; Hanrapetutiun (Republic); Heritage; Liberal Democratic Party; National Unity Party; National Democratic Union; National Party of Armenia; Orinats Yerkir (Rule of Law); People's Democratic Party; People's Party of Armenia; Prosperous Armenia Party (PAP); Republican Party of Armenia (RPA); United Labour Party

    Key ministers

    Prime minister: Tigran Sargsyan

    Agriculture: Sergo Karapetian

    Culture & youth: Hasmik Poghosian

    Defence: Seyran Ohanian

    Diaspora affairs: Hranush Hakobian

    Economy: Tigran Davtian

    Education & science: Armen Ashotian

    Emergency situations: Armen Yeritisian

    Energy & natural resources: Armen Movsisian

    Environmental protection: Aram Harutiunian

    Finance: Vache Gabrielian

    Foreign affairs: Eduard Nalbandian

    Health: Harutiun Kushkian

    Justice: Hrayr Tovmasian

    Labour & social affairs: Artur Grigorian

    Sport & youth affairs: Artur Petrosian

    Transport & communications: Manuk Vardanian

    Territorial administration: Armen Gevorgian

    Urban development: Vartan Vartanian

    Speaker of the National Assembly

    Hovik Abrahamyan

    Central Bank chairman

    Artur Javadian

    November 06, 2012

Economy:

  • Background

    Armenia: Education

    Education spending begins to rise

    Following independence Armenia faced a drastic deterioration in its education system, along with other public services. In 1990 budgetary spending on education was equivalent to 6.6% of GDP, but by 2003 state budget spending on the sector (including science) had plummeted to below 2% of GDP. The authorities have begun to increase expenditure on education, as part of a poverty reduction strategy (see The economy: Economic policy). The 2007 budget envisages an increase of more than 10% in government spending on education, to Dram91.8bn (US$257m at the forecast exchange rate), equivalent to about 3% of GDP. Nevertheless, this is still low by comparison with OECD countries, where average expenditure on education is around 4-5% of GDP.

    Enrolment rates in primary and secondary education were 85% in 2001. The adult literacy rate is high, at almost 99% in 2003 according to estimates from the UN Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organisation (UNESCO), compared with about 96% in 1980. The dramatic drop in funding for education in the years since independence has made it nearly impossible for Armenia to maintain universal general education, or to meet the requirements of an emerging market economy and democratic society. In common with other members of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), the lack of investment in education has caused a deterioration in physical infrastructure. Many schools and universities close in winter owing to energy shortages and lack of heat. There is a shortage of textbooks and teaching materials, and salaries are low, so that many highly qualified teachers and university professors leave the system for better-paid job opportunities elsewhere. The government is beginning to address these issues, for example by raising salaries for employees. Multilateral organisations, including the World Bank, have provided financial assistance for a variety of education projects, including a US$15m programme to improve schools' access to textbooks.

    June 19, 2007

  • Structure

    Armenia: Economic structure

    Economic structure: Annual indicators

     2008a2009a2010a2011a2012b
    GDP at market prices (Dram bn)3,568.23,102.83,509.63,865.7b4,039.2
    GDP (US$ bn)11.78.59.410.4b10.0
    Real GDP growth (%)6.8-14.42.24.74.5
    Consumer price inflation (av; %)9.03.48.27.72.5
    Population (m)3.13.13.13.13.1
    Exports of goods fob (US$ m)1,112.0748.91,175.41,578.01,547.0
    Imports of goods fob (US$ m)3,775.62,830.13,208.03,664.53,302.1
    Current-account balance (US$ m)-1,382.9-1,369.5-1,373.2-1,120.2-1,148.7
    Foreign-exchange reserves excl gold (US$ m)1,406.82,003.61,865.81,932.52,024.1
    Exchange rate Dram:US$ (av)306.0363.3373.7372.5402.3
    a Actual. b Economist Intelligence Unit estimates.

    Download the numbers in Excel

    Main origins of gross domestic product 2011% of totalMain components of gross domestic product 2011% of total
    Agriculture20.2Private consumption82.5
    Industry16.7Government consumption13.7
    Retail trade 13.4Gross fixed investment26.3
    Construction12.81Change in stocks1.6
    Financial services & real estate6.3Net exports of goods & services-23.6
      Statistical discrepancy-0.9
        
    Principal exports fob 2011% of totalPrincipal imports cif 2011% of total
    Mineral products30.0Mineral products19.8
    Base metals27.4Machinery & equipment13.7
    Precious or semi-precious stones & metals14.8Prepared foodstuffs8.4
    Prepared foodstuffs13.8Precious or semi-precious stones & metals5.2
        
    Main destinations of exports 2011% of totalMain origins of imports 2011% of total
    Russia14.1Russia17.4
    Bulgaria12.8China7.1
    Germany9.0Germany5.7
    Netherlands8.5Ukraine5.6

    Download the numbers in Excel

    Download text file (csv format)

    November 06, 2012

  • Outlook

    Armenia: Country outlook

    Armenia: Country outlook

    FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT

    OVERVIEW: The position of the Armenian president, Serzh Sargsyan, has remained stable in recent months, and the Economist Intelligence Unit expects him to stay in power until the presidential election in 2013. Attempts to improve relations with Turkey will be hard, as no progress has been made recently in the unresolved dispute with Azerbaijan, an important Turkish ally, over Nagorny Karabakh. The budget deficit will average 2.9% of GDP in 2012. Government restraint with spending, and improvements to tax and customs administration will help to keep the budget deficit in check. Real GDP growth is estimated at 4.5% in 2012. An improvement in domestic demand and a pick-up in export demand will see real GDP growth accelerate over the 2013-14 forecast period to reach 5.1% in 2014. A tight fiscal policy should help to keep inflation in check, and we expect it to remain within the authorities' target inflation band of 2.5-5.5% in 2013-14. The current-account deficit is estimated to have widened to 11.6% of GDP in 2012 as the weak external climate lowered export and remittance revenue. The deficit will narrow to 8.7% of GDP in 2014.

    DOMESTIC POLITICS: Political stability has increased as protests organised by the main opposition alliance, the Armenian National Congress (ANC), have dwindled since April 2011. Demonstrations held by the ANC following the parliamentary election in May 2012 attracted far fewer supporters than the estimated 10,000 who participated in the rally in April 2011. However, the public's lack of enthusiasm for the demonstrations has provided a boost to the position of the president. We expect Mr Sargsyan to be re-elected in February 2013. In the May election the ANC obtained parliamentary representation for the first time. This provided it with a legitimate avenue to set out its policy objectives, although its parliamentary presence is small (seven seats) and it has not yet posed a threat to the government's policy direction. The ANC's poor relationship with the other two main opposition parties-the Armenian Revolutionary Federation (also known as Dashnaktsutiun) and Heritage, both of which won seats in the election-will hinder the opposition's ability to change the status quo. Nonetheless, on some issues all three parties could put their differences aside and effect modest changes to the government's policy. There is a risk of further protests in 2013-14, particularly in the run-up to and aftermath of the presidential election. However, the economic recovery, following a deep recession in 2009, will help to reduce the risk of mass social unrest. The Republican Party of Armenia (RPA) won 44% of the vote in the parliamentary election in May 2012. Its junior coalition partner in the outgoing government, the Prosperous Armenia Party (PAP), won almost 31%. The ANC received 7%. International observers largely viewed the conduct of the election favourably, although they highlighted some areas of concern, such as the uneven playing field for candidates, which will need to be rectified ahead of the presidential election. The PAP, which was part of the governing coalition before the election, has indicated that it will not support Mr Sargsyan's re-election bid, reneging on an agreement from late 2011. There has been speculation that the ANC might support a PAP candidate, to try to prevent Mr Sargsyan from winning. However, this seems unlikely, owing to deep-seated divisions between the three main opposition parties. Our core scenario is that Mr Sargsyan will win. As in previous elections, the incumbent will benefit from access to administrative resources. Rivalry between the RPA and the PAP, and politics in general, will become more fractious in the run-up to the presidential election.

    INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS: Attempts by Turkey and Armenia to restore diplomatic ties remain stalled. In October 2009 Armenia and Turkey signed two protocols aimed at establishing diplomatic relations and reopening the border, which Turkey closed in 1993 in support of Azerbaijan's position in its frozen conflict with Armenia over the disputed territory of Nagorny Karabakh. However, no further progress towards a breakthrough has been made since, as the Nagorny Karabakh conflict has been an obstacle. Although the conflict was not mentioned in the protocols, the Turkish prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has said that Turkish ratification of the protocols is not possible until a breakthrough occurs over Nagorny Karabakh. Mr Sargsyan objected to Turkey's decision to link improvements in the conflict to the bilateral protocols, and in April 2010 he suspended the parliamentary ratification process indefinitely. Progress in the normalisation of ties between Armenia and Azerbaijan will be slow in 2013-14. Tensions will remain and will occasionally flare up over particularly divisive issues. For example, the decision by the Azerbaijani president, Ilham Aliyev, to free and pardon a convicted murder, Ramil Safarov, in August sharply increased tensions with Armenia. Mr Safarov had been sentenced to life imprisonment in Hungary for the murder of a lieutenant in the Armenian army in Budapest (the Hungarian capital) in 2004. However, an agreement between Azerbaijan and Hungary resulted in him being extradited to Azerbaijan to serve out the remainder of his sentence. Armenia has been outraged by the release of Mr Safarov. A meeting was held with the Minsk Group of the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe and the foreign ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan in late October. At the meeting, both Azerbaijan and Armenia reiterated their commitment to reaching a peace agreement, although no tangible progress towards this aim was made. Border skirmishes will continue.

    POLICY TRENDS: Only a modest improvement in the external environment is expected in 2013, although the outlook for the global economy will improve more significantly in 2014. Weak external conditions and the ongoing repercussions of the global recession of 2009 will have implications for Armenia. Although the financial services sector is not greatly exposed to international capital markets, the country relies heavily on inflows of remittances and official transfers, and much of its export revenue is generated by commodities, particularly metals. We expect that export revenue and remittance inflows will continue to grow in 2013-14, but growth will be slower than in 2008. Government measures, including efforts to reduce fiscal spending and provide support to small and medium-sized enterprises, have put the economy in a better position ahead of the global economic slowdown in 2012 than before the recession of 2009. Financial support from multilateral organisations including the IMF and the World Bank should lead to improvements in the business environment and stimulate economic activity. The Fund agreed to cancel Armenia's Stand-By Arrangement in 2010, and switched support to an Extended Fund Facility and an Extended Credit Facility, which are together worth US$413m. The fourth tranche from the programme was disbursed in June 2012; the fifth tranche, worth US$52m, is scheduled to be released in December. The conclusions of the latest Fund mission to the country, in September, were positive overall, although the Fund urged the authorities to push ahead more swiftly with reforms of the tax administration. The Fund praised the government's commitment to narrowing the fiscal deficit and efforts that have kept inflation in check. Under guidance from multilateral organisations, the government will continue to make progress in tackling corruption within the tax and customs administrations, strengthening the rule of law, and ensuring fair business competition. However, given the close links between political and business circles, and the fact that the president relies on these circles for support, vested interests will present a significant obstacle to more open and transparent policies. The country's position in the Bank's Doing Business 2013 rose to 32, from 50. Significant improvements were seen in the scores for the ease of paying taxes and the level of protection offered to investors.

    ECONOMIC GROWTH: Real GDP increased by 4.7% year on year in 2011, up from 2.2% in 2010. In 2011 all the main sectors, barring construction, expanded in real terms. Growth was led by agriculture and industry. Industry continued to benefit from higher global prices for metals, the country's largest export. Agriculture, a large contributor to headline GDP, grew by 13.5% year on year-the steepest annual rise since 2004. Performance was boosted by an improvement in weather conditions. In 2012 second-quarter real GDP grew by 6.6% year on year, up from 5.6% in the first quarter. Agricultural output grew by a robust 11.8% in April-June (up from 1.8% in the first quarter) as agriculture escaped the impact of the drought that affected large parts of the Commonwealth of Independent States. Manufacturing output, the largest component of industrial output, rose by 8.5% in the second quarter (slower than 18.4% in January-March), and production of the smaller mining and quarrying subcomponent rose by 22.1%. Real GDP growth will be slower in the second half of 2012, largely owing to base effects. Nonetheless, a more robust performance than expected in the first half led us to revise up our estimate for real GDP in 2012 to 4.5% (from 3.6%). A modest improvement in external conditions will lead to forecast real GDP growth of 4.8% in 2013 and 5.1% in 2014. Our real GDP forecast for Russia-main export and investment partner-in 2013 is unchanged from 2012 (3.7%). The outlook for Russia is more favourable than for the US or the euro zone, and this will minimise the reduction in remittance inflows, as Russia is the main host for Armenian migrant workers. However, the weak global economic outlook will prevent a faster recovery in external demand for, and the price of, mining and metallurgy products. In addition, forecast weak global growth will hamper investment into Armenia. These factors will weigh on economic performance over 2013-14. Armenia is vulnerable to exogenous shocks. If the Russian economic outlook were to deteriorate more severely than we currently expect, this would pose a risk to our forecast. Consumer prices rose by 2.5% year on year in September, unchanged from August.

    EXTERNAL ACCOUNT: We estimate that the current-account deficit widened modestly in 2012, to 11.6% of GDP, from 10.8% of GDP in 2011 as lower demand for the country's main exports (metals and mineral products) weighs on export revenue. The current transfers surplus will be smaller than in 2011 as growth in remittance inflows for Armenian workers abroad slows owing to the weaker outlook for Russia, the main destination for Armenians working abroad. The current-account deficit will narrow gradually, to 8.7% of GDP in 2014. This will be driven by an increase in export revenue as global commodity prices for the country's main exports rise and demand increases. An increase in domestic demand and the improved outlook for capital-intensive sectors will lead to further increases in import demand. Nonetheless, we expect import growth to be slower than before 2009, owing to weaker domestic demand. The current transfers surplus will improve from 2013 as remittance inflows begin to pick up.

    November 07, 2012

Country Briefing

Total area

29,800 sq km, of which around 80% is mountainous

Population

3.1m (mid-2011)

Main towns

Yerevan (capital; population 1.1m); Gyumri; Vanadzor

Climate

Continental and dry, with cold winters and warm summers. The heaviest rainfall is in the mountains. The average temperature in July is 21°C; in January, the coldest month, it is -7°C

Languages

Armenian is the national language; Russian is widely spoken in towns

Weights and measures

Metric system

Currency

The Armenian dram was introduced as legal tender in November 1993 to replace the rouble. Average exchange rate in 2012: Dram401.8:US$1

Time

Four hours ahead of GMT

Public holidays

January 1st-2nd (New Year); January 6th (Christmas); January 28th (Army Day); March 8th (International Women's Day); April 24th (Armenian Genocide Commemoration Day); May 9th (Victory Day); May 28th (Day of the First Republic); July 5th (Constitution Day); September 21st (Independence Day); December 31st (New Year's Eve)


February 01, 2013

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