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United Arab Emirates

Politics:

  • Analysis

    UAE politics: Quick View - A new ministry is set up amid changes to the cab

    Event

    The UAE has confirmed its latest cabinet reshuffle, which, while including the creation of a new ministry, made only minor adjustments in personnel.

    Analysis

    The 24-person cabinet features four new appointees, including promotions for two senior public servants. The new oil minister, Suheil al-Mazrouei, is the former deputy head of the state-owned Mubadala Oil and Gas Company, replacing Mohammed al-Hamli, a long-serving energy minister. Abdullah al-Nuaimi (a member of the ruling family of Ajman emirate) was undersecretary of the Ministry of Public Works and will now head the same ministry. The other two new faces were appointed as ministers without portfolio. One of these, Sultan al-Jabr, will remain the head of Masdar, Abu Dhabi's flagship renewable energy development.

    Meanwhile, two brothers from the Abu Dhabi ruling family, the Al Nahyan, but not from its dominant branch, have switched to postings equivalent in rank. Sheikh Nahyan bin Mubarak al-Nahyan, the former higher-education minister, takes over the culture ministry. His replacement is his brother, Sheikh Hamdan bin Mubarak, who was the public works minister.

    More eye-catching is the creation of a new Ministry of Development and International Co-operation to be headed by the former trade minister, Sheikha Lubna al-Qasimi, a member of the Qasimi family whose distant branches rule two of the poorer emirates, Sharjah and Ras al-Khaimah. This new ministry will subsume the former foreign aid office. Reminiscent of the thinking behind the UK's creation in the late 1990s of the Department for International Development, it seems to reflect the importance the UAE gives to promoting its development credentials, not least throughout the Islamic world including in countries where it has played a security role such as Libya and Afghanistan.

    Overall, though, the cabinet's top positions are unchanged and reflect the dominance within the UAE of the Al Nahyan of Abu Dhabi and the enduring importance of Dubai-the latter's ruler, Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid al-Maktoum, is prime minister, and a senior assistant in Dubai, Mohammed al-Gergawi, is still UAE cabinet affairs minister.

    March 20, 2013

  • Background

    UAE: Key figures

    Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed al-Nahyan

    Sheikh Khalifa is the president of the UAE, the ruler of Abu Dhabi and the most powerful man in the country. The only checks on his absolute power are the six other rulers of the UAE, who sit on the Supreme Council, although in effect they rubber-stamp his decisions. He is considered to be a moderate reformist who oversees Abu Dhabi's development, but appears to have limited involvement in the day-to-day management of the emirate. As the president of Abu Dhabi's Supreme Petroleum Council, he nonetheless shapes the emirate's policy for the hydrocarbons sector, the main source of revenue for Abu Dhabi's many sovereign investment funds. He favours maintaining the current political system of hereditary autocracy.

    Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan

    Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed is the crown prince of Abu Dhabi, the half-brother of Sheikh Khalifa and the head of the "Bani Fatima", an influential grouping within the royal family made up of the sons of Sheikha Fatima, the favoured wife (akin to a "first lady") of the state founder and revered ruler, Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan al-Nahyan. As the chairman of Abu Dhabi's Executive Council, he has been the chief architect of the transformation of Abu Dhabi into a major hub for investment. He is also (unofficially) responsible for the day-to-day running of the emirate. He holds the rank of general and is the driving force behind the current development of the UAE armed forces.

    Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid al-Maktoum

    Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid is the ruler of Dubai and the prime minister and vice-president of the UAE. He has held these titles since the death of his older brother, Sheikh Maktoum bin Rashid al-Maktoum, in early 2006, but in practice he has been running Dubai since Sheikh Maktoum appointed him crown prince in 1994. He is an aggressive businessman and is responsible for building Dubai's image as a trading hub. However, the economic downturn, which in 2009 hit Dubai particularly hard, weakened his business empire and his influence within the federation, and, specifically, weakened the strength of the state-related companies, symbols of the free market that seemingly produced the "Dubai miracle".

    Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed al-Nahyan

    Sheikh Mansour is the deputy prime minister and presidential affairs minister. He is the rising star of UAE politics and the driving force behind several high-profile business deals on the behalf of the Abu Dhabi government. As the brother of Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed and husband of Manal bint Mohammed, a daughter of Dubai's ruler, he is seen as a key link between the two most influential emirates of the federation.

    Mohammed al-Shaibani

    A member of one of the top merchant families in Dubai, his status rose as a number of senior figures, previously appointed by Dubai's ruler to run the economy, fell from grace during the 2009 recession. Mohammed al-Shaibani is head of the emiri diwan, the ruler's court, which under Mr Shaibani has reasserted itself as the real locus of power in the emirate. This "palace coup" occurred as the Dubai Executive Council, formerly created as a de facto Dubai government, was severely downgraded by Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid as the blame game started among the elite in Dubai as to who was responsible for the local economic meltdown.

    Sheikh Ahmed bin Said al-Maktoum

    Sheikh Ahmed is the uncle of the ruler of Dubai and holds most of the key business portfolios of the emirate. His career began in 1985 when he was appointed the chairman of Dubai's flagship carrier, Emirates Airline. He is also the chairman of Dubai World and the Supreme Fiscal Committee, the body which is responsible for managing the emirate's fiscal policies. Most recently, in June 2011, Sheikh Ahmed was appointed the chairman of the UAE's largest bank, Emirates NBD.

    August 20, 2012

  • Structure

    UAE: Political structure

    Official name

    United Arab Emirates

    Form of state

    Federation of seven emirates: Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Sharjah, Ajman, Ras al-Khaimah, Umm al-Qaiwain and Fujairah

    Legal system

    Based on the 1971 constitution

    National legislature

    Unicameral Federal National Council of 20 appointed and 20 elected members representing the separate emirates; it has a consultative role only

    Head of state

    The Supreme Council, comprising the seven emirs, elects the president from among its members; on the death of his father in November 2004, Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed al-Nahyan became ruler of Abu Dhabi and was elected president of the UAE

    National government

    The Council of Ministers (cabinet), led by the prime minister, is appointed by the Supreme Council of Rulers; each state is represented by at least one minister, with senior posts allocated to the larger emirates; the Council of Ministers initiates legislation for ratification by the Supreme Council of Rulers, which is also a policymaking body and meets formally about once a year; the latest cabinet reshuffle was in February 2008

    Main political parties

    Political parties are not permitted

    The government

    President: Khalifa bin Zayed al-Nahyan

    Prime minister & vice-president: Mohammed bin Rashid al-Maktoum

    Deputy prime minister & interior minister: Saif bin Zayed al-Nahyan

    Deputy prime minister & presidential affairs minister: Mansour bin Zayed al-Nahyan

    Ministers of state

    Federal National Council affairs: Mohammed Anwar Gargash

    Financial affairs: Obaid Humaid al-Tayer

    Foreign affairs: Anwar Mohammed Gargash

    Key ministers

    Cabinet affairs: Mohammed al-Gergawi

    Culture, youth & community development: Abdelrahman Mohammed al-Owais

    Defence: Mohammed bin Rashid al-Maktoum

    Economy: Sultan bin Said al-Mansouri

    Education: Humaid Mohammed Obeid al-Qattami

    Energy: Mohammed bin Dhaen al-Hamli

    Environment & water: Rashid Ahmed bin Fahad

    Finance: Hamdan bin Rashid al-Maktoum

    Foreign affairs: Abdullah bin Zayed al-Nahyan

    Foreign trade: Lubna al-Qasimi

    Health: Abdelrahman Mohammed al-Owais

    Higher education & scientific research: Nahyan bin Mubarak al-Nahyan

    Justice: Hadef bin Juaan al-Dhaheri

    Labour: Saqr Ghobash Said Ghobash

    Public works & housing: Hamdan bin Mubarak al-Nahyan

    Social affairs: Mariam Mohammed Khalfan al-Roumi

    Central Bank governor

    Sultan bin Nasser al-Suwaidi

    March 08, 2013

  • Outlook

    UAE: Key developments

    Outlook for 2013-17

    • The federation is expected to remain stable in the forecast period. However, a transfer of power in Abu Dhabi from the current ruler to the crown prince may occur, as major government reshuffles have been implemented.
    • Domestic calls for greater political plurality, mainly from the poorer northern emirates, will continue to increase. However, any such requests will be dealt with harshly, as made evident by the rise in arrests of activists in 2012.
    • Regional tensions are expected to remain high in the short term given the ongoing impasse in international talks over Iran's nuclear programme.
    • Continued high expenditure in 2013 coupled with a forecast fall in oil prices will result in a slightly smaller surplus than in 2012. Overall, we forecast that the fiscal surplus will rise from 3.1% of GDP in 2013 to 6.6% of GDP in 2017.
    • We forecast that real GDP growth will accelerate to 3.7% in 2013, boosted by government spending and stronger private consumption. Growth will gather pace in the second half of the forecast period, averaging around 5% in 2013-17.
    • We forecast that inflation will pick up, after averaging just 0.7% in 2012. We expect it to average 2.7% a year in 2013-17, but to trend above 3% in 2016-17 in line with global commodity prices and stronger domestic demand.
    • The current-account surplus is forecast to narrow in 2013-15 as the services deficit widens owing to a surge in services debits in line with a rise in goods imports. The surplus will average 4.7% of GDP in 2013-17.

    Review

    • The UAE authorities announced that 94 Emiratis previously linked to the Muslim Brotherhood will be sent for trial, accused of belonging to an illegal organisation intent on overthrowing the political system in the UAE.
    • Dubai has issued US$750m of ten-year sukuk (sharia-compliant bonds) at 3.875%, and a further US$500m with a longer 30-year maturity, at 5.375%. Investor demand was strong, with order books massively oversubscribed.
    • The UAE attracted Dh30bn (US$8.2bn) in foreign direct investment inflows in 2012. Slightly stronger inflows than in 2011 reflect improving confidence in the UAE's economy and political instability elsewhere in the region.
    • The UAE has once more delayed legislation that would allow expatriates to take a majority share in a business. Foreign ownership remains limited to 49% outside designated free zones.
    • Two leading UAE companies-Nakheel (a Dubai-based real-estate developer) and Aabar (a unit of an Abu Dhabi sovereign fund)-are in talks with lenders to extend the repayment of loans worth billions of dollars.

    March 08, 2013

Economy:

  • Background

    UAE: Country fact sheet

    Fact sheet

    Annual data2012aHistorical averages (%)2008-12
    Population (m)7.5Population growth4.8
    GDP (US$ bn; market exchange rate)391.1bReal GDP growth1.4
    GDP (US$ bn; purchasing power parity)411.9Real domestic demand growth1.1
    GDP per head (US$; market exchange rate)52,303Inflation3.2
    GDP per head (US$; purchasing power parity)55,083Current-account balance (% of GDP)5.7
    Exchange rate (av) Dh:US$3.67bFDI inflows (% of GDP)2.4
    a The Economist Intelligence Unit estimates. b Actual.

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    Background: As part of efforts to secure its trading routes with India during the 19th century, the UK concluded a series of truces and protectorate agreements with individual sheikhdoms in the Gulf. These agreements eventually gave rise to what became known as the Trucial States, covering much of the present-day UAE. There was little in the way of economic development or outside interest in the area until oil was discovered off the coast of Abu Dhabi in 1958. The UK withdrew from the region in 1968, and the sheikhdoms formed a loose federation. In 1971 the UAE became an independent state.

    Political structure: The Supreme Council is the highest federal authority and comprises the hereditary rulers of the seven emirates. Between 1971 and 1996 the UAE operated under a provisional constitution, which was renewed every five years. In 1996 the seven emirates agreed to make the constitution permanent and accepted the city of Abu Dhabi as their capital. Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed al-Nahyan became president of the UAE and ruler of Abu Dhabi in 2004, on the death of his father. The council appoints the prime minister, traditionally the ruler of the UAE's second-largest emirate, Dubai, who is currently Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid al-Maktoum.

    Policy issues: The emirate of Dubai will focus on repaying vast amounts of debt accumulated by government-related entities in the forecast period, while Abu Dhabi will lead the way in diversifying away from oil. The UAE is heavily reliant on expatriate labour (which makes up more than 85% of its labour force), leading to "Emiratisation" employment policies to give preference to nationals.

    Taxation: There is no personal income tax and the only corporate taxpayers are foreign banks and foreign energy firms. The Dubai government is increasingly generating revenue by extending fees and charges for services. For example, Dubai charges tenants 5% of their annual rent. Islamic banks and financial institutions also pay an Islamic tax (zakat) of 2.5% of their net operating capital. Value-added tax (VAT) at 3-5% may be introduced later in the forecast period to supplement revenue.

    Foreign trade: We estimate that the merchandise trade surplus increased slightly to US$81bn in 2012, with export receipts rising by a modest 7% to almost US$301bn and import spending by 9% to US$220bn. The current-account surplus is estimated to have narrowed to US$27.5bn, or 7% of GDP.

    Major exports 2011% of totalMajor imports 2011% of total
    Re-exports38.3Machinery & electrical equipment14.9
    Crude petroleum32.2Precious stones & precious metals14.4
    Gas5.6Vehicles & other transport equipment7.6
    Base metals & related products5.7
    Leading markets 2011% of totalLeading suppliers 2011% of total
    Japan16.1India19.8
    South Korea14.0China13.9
    Iran10.9US8.2
    India5.5Germany4.6

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    March 08, 2013

  • Structure

    UAE: Economic structure

    Data and charts: Annual trends charts


    March 08, 2013

  • Outlook

    UAE: Country outlook

    UAE: Country outlook

    FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT

    POLITICAL STABILITY: The domestic political scene will remain broadly stable in 2013-17. Nevertheless, criticism of the government or requests for greater political plurality will be dealt with harshly, as is evident from the rise in arrests of activists. The government is increasingly sensitive about the growing regional influence of the Muslim Brotherhood. The key risk to political stability stems from growing discontent within the northern emirates, where the benefits of economic development in the past decade have not been felt as strongly as they have in Dubai and Abu Dhabi. This has resulted in a widening wealth gap between Emiratis in these two emirates and those in the northern emirates. However, the Economist Intelligence Unit expects the political environment to remain stable over the forecast period owing to the small and largely well-cared-for population of UAE nationals.

    ELECTION WATCH: The UAE is governed by the Supreme Council, which comprises the leaders of the seven emirates. The 40-member Federal National Council (FNC) is an advisory body to the Supreme Council. It is responsible for examining proposed federal legislation. Half of the FNC members are elected, with the other 20 being appointed by the rulers of the seven emirates. Although the FNC continues to be denied legislative powers, some of the appointed members, mainly from the poorer northern emirates, are looking to be more assertive in their dealings with the executive. The next election to the body will be held in 2015, but we do not expect any substantial changes to the powers of the FNC.

    INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS: Tensions between the UAE and Iran will remain high over Iran's presence on the disputed Abu Musa and Tunb islands, as well as concerns over Iran's nuclear programme. However, both countries will maintain relations, as Iran and the UAE benefit considerably from strong trade ties: Dubai is a big re-export hub for Iran. Trade relations with Iran will be a potential source of tension between the UAE and the US, possibly throughout the forecast period, given the latter's attempts to isolate Iran with ongoing sanctions against the country's financial and energy sectors. However, regional unrest has strengthened the bilateral relationship between the UAE and the US as the latter seeks to build up the armaments of all six Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) countries, so that they can develop a "regional" defence capability.

    POLICY TRENDS: Against the backdrop of weak global economic conditions and forecast slow growth in the euro zone, the authorities will maintain their focus on protecting the domestic economy and supporting growth. The UAE sees its status as a trade and tourism hub as vital to economic growth, especially since the focus has shifted somewhat from real estate. The UAE will continue to diversify away from oil but will also invest in increasing its oil output; the federation is aiming to increase output to 3.5m barrels/day (b/d) by 2018. The Dubai government recently announced the resumption of projects worth Dh4bn (US$1.1bn) that had been postponed during the debt crisis. The government also announced plans to develop a mega-project entitled Mohammed bin Rashid City, which will boast the world's largest shopping centre and 100 hotels. Work on this project is due to start immediately, with the first phase to be completed in 2014. Abu Dhabi will also spend heavily on large-scale infrastructure projects such as the Khalifa Industrial Zone Abu Dhabi (Kazid) and Masdar City. Diversification and rapid growth in electricity usage will put pressure on gas supplies, encouraging the government to forge ahead with the development of alternative energy sources. As part of this effort, it has awarded a licence to build the first of four 1,400-mw nuclear reactors. The federal government will continue to improve the business environment to encourage foreign investment. A concentrated effort will be made in the forecast period to expand employment opportunities for Emiratis in the private sector, although public-sector wage increases will undermine efforts to entice Emiratis away from public-sector jobs.

    ECONOMIC GROWTH: We forecast that real GDP growth will accelerate to 3.7% in 2013, boosted by government spending on new projects and stronger growth in private consumption (itself underpinned by increases in government current spending). Furthermore, after it slowed significantly in 2012, we forecast that world trade growth will strengthen in 2013, supported by robust growth in emerging-market economies in Asia. Slower than forecast growth in Asia and the ongoing euro zone debt crisis both pose downside risks to our growth forecasts. From 2014 onwards, growth will be boosted by increased non-oil activity, and from 2015 to 2017 it will be supported by higher oil production and prices, offset to some degree by slower growth in Asian markets. The UAE produced an average of 2.65m b/d in 2012, and production will rise each year; the pace of growth will increase in 2016-17 following investment in capacity expansion, with production reaching 3.15m b/d in 2017. This will boost overall export growth later in the forecast period, but stronger import growth will balance this out.

    INFLATION: After averaging a low 0.7% in 2012, inflation is forecast to rise in 2013 but to remain moderate. Falling prices for housing and utilities suppressed inflation in 2012 but will become less of a deflationary factor in 2013. Strengthening economic growth will nudge up inflationary pressure during the forecast period, as will rising world non-oil commodity prices in 2016-17. The government will maintain subsidies for the first half of the forecast period, owing to fears of prompting unrest in the country, but in the latter part of the forecast period a consolidation in expenditure could entail some subsidies being scaled back. The official basket used by the UAE government is representative of prices faced by the local Emirati population, who benefit from extensive subsidies, rather than the expatriate community, who make up more than 85% of the labour force. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, a new household and expenditure survey was to be conducted in 2012, but no further information is available. The results may be published in 2013, with an accompanying revision to the basket, but this remains uncertain. We expect official inflation to remain manageable in 2013-17, averaging 2.7% a year.

    EXCHANGE RATES: The Central Bank remains committed to the existing peg of the dirham to the US dollar. The peg has provided stability for decades and, having ridden out for this long the problems associated with a fixed currency (including a lack of monetary flexibility), the authorities seem keen to maintain the system. The dollar strengthened against the euro in 2012 owing to concerns over the euro zone debt crisis, as well as an improvement in the outlook for the US economy. However, the announcement of a third round of quantitative easing by the US government has led to the dollar weakening. We forecast a mild weakening against the euro in 2013, assuming that concerns over the euro zone do not intensify. We then forecast the dollar to edge stronger against the euro in 2014-17. A larger fall in the value of the dollar could increase inflationary pressures in the UAE, but would be partly offset by extensive subsidies. The peg is not expected to come under threat in the foreseeable future.

    EXTERNAL SECTOR: The current-account surplus as a proportion of GDP is forecast to narrow in 2013 as goods imports rise and lead to a widening of the services deficit. This trend will continue in 2014-15. The completion of major infrastructure projects such as ports and economic zones in the latter half of the forecast period will boost non-oil export earnings from 2016 onwards. The trade surplus will average a healthy 16.6% of GDP a year in 2013-17. The services deficit will rise strongly over the forecast period as services imports increase as a result of the economic diversification programme and in line with the rise in goods imports. Services credits will also increase (mainly from revenue from tourism and financial services) but will lag behind imports. Income credits (mainly returns on the government's foreign assets) will grow strongly. The growth in remittance outflows is forecast to grow robustly in 2013 17 in line with economic growth. Overall, the current account will remain in surplus over the forecast period, by an average of 4.7% of GDP a year.

    March 11, 2013

  • Forecast

    UAE: Country forecast summary

    Country forecast overview: Highlights

    • There will be little threat to domestic political stability in the UAE in the forecast period. Power in the emirates will be concentrated within the large ruling families, although relations within these families can sometimes be fractious. The northern emirates present a risk, as the wealth gap between Emiratis there and those in Abu Dhabi and Dubai is widening.
    • Popular demand for democracy from Emirati citizens appears to be minimal, in large part because of the country's energy wealth. However, in light of events unfolding in the region since 2011, there are likely to be more calls for increased political participation, but these will be suppressed quickly. The Economist Intelligence Unit expects only small steps towards a more participatory political system to continue in 2013-17.
    • Tensions between Iran and the West remain high owing to the former's nuclear programme. However, although it remains a risk, we do not forecast a military conflict between the US and Iran in 2013. If Iran were to close the Strait of Hormuz, the US, which has access to military facilities in the UAE, would almost certainly attack the Islamic Republic and the UAE might be drawn into a conflict.
    • The UAE will maintain an expansionary policy in the forecast period. Both Dubai and Abu Dhabi have announced the resumption of existing projects as well as new projects. The fiscal surplus will be modest in 2013-14, given the rise in expenditure, but from 2015 onwards higher oil prices will increase the surplus, which is forecast to average 4.6% of GDP in 2013-17.
    • The government will continue to attract foreign investment by providing a broadly attractive business environment with low tax rates, imposing few trade or exchange controls, providing solid infrastructure and projecting a positive attitude to private-sector investment.
    • We forecast that real GDP growth will accelerate to 3.7% in 2013, driven by government spending on new projects and stronger growth in private consumption. From 2014 onwards, growth will be boosted by increased non-oil activity, and from 2015 to 2017 it will be supported by higher oil production and prices. We forecast average annual growth of around 5% in 2013-17. Inflation is forecast to rise in 2013-17, averaging 2.7% but trending above 3% in 2016-17.
    • The current-account surplus is forecast to narrow in 2013 as the services deficit widens. The trend is set to continue until 2016, when a robust trade surplus boosts the current account. The surplus is forecast to average 4.7% of GDP in 2013-17

    Country forecast overview: Key indicators

    Key indicators201220132014201520162017
    Real GDP growth (%)3.43.74.75.25.55.7
    Consumer price inflation (av; %)0.71.52.52.73.13.8
    Budget balance (% of GDP)4.43.13.84.35.26.6
    Current-account balance (% of GDP)7.05.44.84.04.34.9
    Exchange rate Dh:US$ (av)3.673.673.673.673.673.67
    Exchange rate Dh:€ (av)4.724.894.824.664.634.63

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    March 08, 2013

Country Briefing

Land area

83,600 sq km; 77,700 sq km excluding islands, of which 97% is desert

Population

7.1m (at end-2011; Economist Intelligence Unit estimate)

Member states

Percentage of population in each emirate (2011; Economist Intelligence Unit estimates)

Dubai: 29

Abu Dhabi: 39

Sharjah: 18

Other emirates: 14

Capital

Abu Dhabi city

Climate

Coastal areas: home to the bulk of the population; very hot and humid in summer (May-October) with temperatures of up to 46°C and humidity of up to 100%; mild winter (December-March) with temperatures of between 14°C and 23°C. Interior: desert climate, with cool winter and hot arid summer. Average annual rainfall is 42 mm, but Ras al-Khaimah is more temperate, with 150 mm average annual rainfall

Language

Arabic; English is widely understood and Hindi and Urdu are common among immigrants

Measures

Metric and UK (imperial); local measures are also in use

Currency

UAE dirham (Dh) = 100 fils. The dirham is pegged to the US dollar at a rate of Dh3.67:US$1

Time

4 hours ahead of GMT

Public holidays

All Islamic holidays are observed in accordance with the lunar calendar, and so the following dates are approximate: Mawlid al-Nabi (the birthday of the Prophet, January 24th 2013); Eid al-Fitr (end of Ramadan, August 8th 2013); Eid al-Adha (Feast of the Sacrifice, October 15th 2013); Al Hijra (Islamic New Year, November 4th 2013)

Fixed secular holidays include January 1st (New Year's Day); August 6th (Accession of Sheikh Zayed, the late ruler of Abu Dhabi-Abu Dhabi only); December 2nd (UAE National Day)


January 01, 2013

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